Computer-related predictions

El Greco · 20th March 2009, 04:55 AM

The idea is that at least some of us and some version of the forum will be here in 10 years. Then we can look back at this thread and see how stupid we've been. But because 10 years is a lot of time, we can also make some shorter-term predictions. Say 2-years and 5-years.

So, I start:

In 2 years, the largest USB stick will have a 512 GB capacity.

In 5 years, the sales of writable optical media will have significantly declined because hard disks will have comparable prices per GB and smaller sizes.

In 10 years, solid state disks will have dominated the market. First 3-D games (no need for special glasses) will be here.

Soapy Sam · 20th March 2009, 05:23 AM

Microsoft will start shipping a "free" Linux kernel for netbooks.

I'd put that one about ...October.

kbm99 · 20th March 2009, 06:47 AM

2 Years: Apple Computer will hint that they are close to possibly deciding on a plan to maybe consider offering Flash support on the iPhone. No promises.

5 Years: In what supporters term a "major milestone" the percentage of home users running some flavor of Linux as their desktop OS of choice will be a non-imaginary number.

10 Years: Duke Nukem Forever will be "very close" to a beta candidate.

Marquis de Carabas · 20th March 2009, 07:34 AM

2 years: Porn

5 years: Porn

10 years: Porn

23,561.2 years: Porn

PixyMisa · 20th March 2009, 07:52 AM

CPUs will hit 4GHz by the end of 2003.

Well, it looked like a certainty when I made the prediction in December '02.

jsiv · 20th March 2009, 08:19 AM

Yeah, making processors faster is problematic. A better prediction might be eight-core machines in five years.

I think the future will bring more single-task gadgets and less focus on general-purpose computers.

quarky · 20th March 2009, 08:27 AM

Speaking of porn...

I don't look at porn on line (dial -up, plus too old to care) but I'm curious about its evolution.

Has anyone seen an analysis of its content over the years?
Or, does anyone have a good guess?

For example, gay content has steadily increased; young Asian women on black men is down 20% since 2001; fellatio up 10%, etc?

My hunch is that, as goes porn, so goes everything else.

El Greco · 20th March 2009, 08:33 AM

Originally Posted by quarky

Has anyone seen an analysis of its content over the years?

If I'm not mistaken the Marquis has written his thesis on the subject (and ever since he does so every year even though he doesn't have to).

six7s · 20th March 2009, 10:57 PM

Originally Posted by El Greco

If I'm not mistaken the Marquis has written his thesis on the subject (and ever since he does so every year even though he doesn't have to).

Well... it ain't rocket science, is it?

If we knew what it was we were doing, it would not be called research, would it?
Albert Einstein

Soapy Sam · 22nd March 2009, 11:14 AM

Originally Posted by El Greco

In 2 years, the largest USB stick will have a 512 GB capacity.
.

You forgot the corollary.

The minimum size of a digital photograph from a pocket camera will be 1.3TB.

quarky · 22nd March 2009, 02:46 PM

Originally Posted by Soapy Sam

You forgot the corollary.

The minimum size of a digital photograph from a pocket camera will be 1.3TB.

But we get to buy new stuff, right?

New stuff is kewl!

six7s · 22nd March 2009, 03:02 PM

Originally Posted by quarky

But we get to buy new stuff, right?

Right!

In accordance with More's Law:

the number of Kewl Things ^(tm) per household doubles every year

Chupacabras · 22nd March 2009, 03:50 PM

DOS will make a return.

... Or so I sincerely hope.

El Greco · 1st May 2013, 12:59 AM

Well, I was a couple of years off about the USB stick capacity but otherwise I'm in pretty good shape.

20th March 2009, 04:55 AM	#1
El Greco Summer worshipper Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Παρά θιν'αλός Posts: 14,259	Computer-related predictions The idea is that at least some of us and some version of the forum will be here in 10 years. Then we can look back at this thread and see how stupid we've been. But because 10 years is a lot of time, we can also make some shorter-term predictions. Say 2-years and 5-years. So, I start: In 2 years, the largest USB stick will have a 512 GB capacity. In 5 years, the sales of writable optical media will have significantly declined because hard disks will have comparable prices per GB and smaller sizes. In 10 years, solid state disks will have dominated the market. First 3-D games (no need for special glasses) will be here.
	__________________ "Robbing a bank is no crime compared to owning one" - Bertolt Brecht "Let it go and come to bed already, El Greco" - MoeFaux

20th March 2009, 05:23 AM	#2
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,885	Microsoft will start shipping a "free" Linux kernel for netbooks. I'd put that one about ...October.
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,885

20th March 2009, 06:47 AM	#3
kbm99 Critical Thinker Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 271	2 Years: Apple Computer will hint that they are close to possibly deciding on a plan to maybe consider offering Flash support on the iPhone. No promises. 5 Years: In what supporters term a "major milestone" the percentage of home users running some flavor of Linux as their desktop OS of choice will be a non-imaginary number. 10 Years: Duke Nukem Forever will be "very close" to a beta candidate.
kbm99 Critical Thinker Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 271

20th March 2009, 07:34 AM	#4
Marquis de Carabas Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: vuori Posts: 27,106	2 years: Porn 5 years: Porn 10 years: Porn 23,561.2 years: Porn
	__________________ Jesus ... wasn't he the bloke who turned fish into wine and made the lepers multiply? -KateHL Violence is more acceptable than incest. I have been told to keep this in mind.

20th March 2009, 07:52 AM	#5
PixyMisa Persnickety Insect Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Sunny Munuvia Posts: 14,906	CPUs will hit 4GHz by the end of 2003. Well, it looked like a certainty when I made the prediction in December '02.
	__________________ Free blogs for skeptics... And everyone else. mee.nu What, in the Holy Name of Gzortch, are you people doing?!?!!? - TGHO

20th March 2009, 08:19 AM	#6
jsiv King of Svalbard Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Bortenfor alle blåner Posts: 4,492	Yeah, making processors faster is problematic. A better prediction might be eight-core machines in five years. I think the future will bring more single-task gadgets and less focus on general-purpose computers.
	__________________ Panama er landet eg drøymer om!

20th March 2009, 08:27 AM	#7
quarky Banned Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,454	Speaking of porn... I don't look at porn on line (dial -up, plus too old to care) but I'm curious about its evolution. Has anyone seen an analysis of its content over the years? Or, does anyone have a good guess? For example, gay content has steadily increased; young Asian women on black men is down 20% since 2001; fellatio up 10%, etc? My hunch is that, as goes porn, so goes everything else.
quarky Banned Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,454

20th March 2009, 08:33 AM	#8
El Greco Summer worshipper Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Παρά θιν'αλός Posts: 14,259	Originally Posted by quarky Has anyone seen an analysis of its content over the years? If I'm not mistaken the Marquis has written his thesis on the subject (and ever since he does so every year even though he doesn't have to).
	__________________ "Robbing a bank is no crime compared to owning one" - Bertolt Brecht "Let it go and come to bed already, El Greco" - MoeFaux

20th March 2009, 10:57 PM	#9
six7s veretic Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Aotearoa Posts: 8,710	Originally Posted by El Greco If I'm not mistaken the Marquis has written his thesis on the subject (and ever since he does so every year even though he doesn't have to). Well... it ain't rocket science, is it? If we knew what it was we were doing, it would not be called research, would it? Albert Einstein
	__________________ Evolution and the rest of reality fascinates the be-jeebus out of me!

22nd March 2009, 11:14 AM	#10
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,885	Originally Posted by El Greco In 2 years, the largest USB stick will have a 512 GB capacity. . You forgot the corollary. The minimum size of a digital photograph from a pocket camera will be 1.3TB.
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,885

22nd March 2009, 02:46 PM	#11
quarky Banned Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,454	Originally Posted by Soapy Sam You forgot the corollary. The minimum size of a digital photograph from a pocket camera will be 1.3TB. But we get to buy new stuff, right? New stuff is kewl!
quarky Banned Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,454

22nd March 2009, 03:02 PM	#12
six7s veretic Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Aotearoa Posts: 8,710	Originally Posted by quarky But we get to buy new stuff, right? Right! In accordance with More's Law: the number of Kewl Things ^(tm) per household doubles every year
	__________________ Evolution and the rest of reality fascinates the be-jeebus out of me!

22nd March 2009, 03:50 PM	#13
Chupacabras Illuminator Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Fascistoland. Posts: 3,487	DOS will make a return. ... Or so I sincerely hope.
	__________________ "TEAR DOWN THE WALL!!!"

1st May 2013, 12:59 AM	#14
El Greco Summer worshipper Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Παρά θιν'αλός Posts: 14,259	Well, I was a couple of years off about the USB stick capacity but otherwise I'm in pretty good shape.
	__________________ "Robbing a bank is no crime compared to owning one" - Bertolt Brecht "Let it go and come to bed already, El Greco" - MoeFaux