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#1 |
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In the Peanut Gallery
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 29,665
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Australia not in recession
A bit early to pop the champagne corks I know, but Australia is the only advanced economy not in recession (as strictly defined):
http://business.theage.com.au/busine...0603-buyq.html
Quote:
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A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill |
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#2 |
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Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Mt Disappointment
Posts: 33,328
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It's a big gamble, because no one can possibly predict or know how to react to the current crises. Certainly, compared to six months ago, there is not the same sense of panic in the air, and the stock market has stabilised. GM has gone bust, but it didn't seem to spook anyone.
Either way, you can guarantee that if the Liberals were in power, they would have done pretty much the same thing, as they all get their advice from Treasury. There would have been a lot of meetings between the Government ministers, Unions and Business leaders to ensure that everyone had a basic agreement on the seriousness of the situation and the need for radical action. We will end up in recession, though, at some time. This is only just the first battle in what will be a longer campaign. The important thing was to not let everything collapse in a panic stricken mess. Now that that has been achieved, it's on to the long term recovery. The stimulus can only do so much, and unemployment is still rising. |
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Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity. Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it. Hobbes |
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#3 |
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In the Peanut Gallery
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 29,665
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I'm not sure we will end up in a recession. China could still be our saviour.
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__________________
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill |
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#4 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Seoul, South Korea
Posts: 1,132
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Am I correct in understanding that in Oz liberal means what we Usains would call conservative? Is that fiscally or socially liberal?
Good to hear all is well. Maybe I'll have to stake out my own home among the gum trees. |
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You start wearing the blue and brown and You're working for the clampdown -The Clash http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/ - Streaming Documentaries. You're welcome! |
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#5 |
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Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Mt Disappointment
Posts: 33,328
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The Liberals are the Conservative party. Their name originally referred to the idea of "Classical Liberalism". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_liberalism . Kind of a Conservative version of Libertarianism.
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__________________
Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity. Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it. Hobbes |
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#6 |
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Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Mt Disappointment
Posts: 33,328
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China's biggest customer is the USA, IIRC. If the US isn't buying from China, China isn't buying from us.
The stimulus worked, but it was a once off. You can't do that too often. It was necessary, but expensive. Interest rates have a few more percent left, but that's about it, too. |
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Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity. Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it. Hobbes |
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#7 |
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Lackey
Administrator / JREF Forum Liaison
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 64,783
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If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart? - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn 1918-2008
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#8 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Seoul, South Korea
Posts: 1,132
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Thanks. The extent of my knowledge of Australian politics ends Pauline Hanson. But at least it begins with yard glasses.
Do economic tendencies tie in with social tendencies like they tend to do in the States? |
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You start wearing the blue and brown and You're working for the clampdown -The Clash http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/ - Streaming Documentaries. You're welcome! |
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#9 |
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Other (please write in)
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NeverLand
Posts: 9,914
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I am skeptical. Seems like just a simple number game rather than actual economic stability.
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As cultural anthropologists have always said "human culture" = "human nature". You might as well put a fish on the moon to test how it "swims naturally" without the "influence of water". -Earthborn |
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#10 |
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In the Peanut Gallery
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 29,665
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Economics is a numbers game.
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__________________
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill |
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#11 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Colorado
Posts: 5,719
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As he said above, Australia isn't in recession as it is strictly defined. That makes it a numbers game, as that is how recession is defined - by numbers. If you want to go soft, then you need to invent your own touchy-feely definition for when some area is in recession.
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#12 |
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Other (please write in)
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NeverLand
Posts: 9,914
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__________________
As cultural anthropologists have always said "human culture" = "human nature". You might as well put a fish on the moon to test how it "swims naturally" without the "influence of water". -Earthborn |
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#13 |
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In the Peanut Gallery
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 29,665
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The past two posts are correct, but one of the most important factors in a recovery is confidence. The "no recession" news was good and has boosted business confidence here. Whether it will be sustained is another matter.
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__________________
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill |
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#14 |
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Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Planet Earth
Posts: 17,188
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Australia is not in recession because the numbers are too volatile. What the commentators ignore are the facts. Seasonally adjusted GDP went up 0.4%, but the trend figure was down by 0.1%. The next quarter is likely to be -ve. However Australia is doing better than its major trading partners. Not sure why. Maybe because in Australia they did not routinely give housing loans to people who had no documentation, so that housing prices did not collapse, causing the banks to be in trouble. You know the rest.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@....0?OpenDocument |
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#15 |
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Up The Irons
Tagger
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 25,300
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__________________
WHAT CAN THE HARVEST HOPE FOR, IF NOT THE CARE OF THE REAPER MAN? - Death "Racism is a disease in society. We're all equal. I don't care what their colour is, or religion. Just as long as they're human beings they're my buddies." - Mandawuy Yunupingu, lead singer of Yothu Yindi |
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#16 |
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Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Mt Disappointment
Posts: 33,328
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__________________
Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity. Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it. Hobbes |
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#17 |
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Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Mt Disappointment
Posts: 33,328
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Two good articles in "The Age" today.
http://business.theage.com.au/busine...0605-byn2.html http://business.theage.com.au/busine...0605-byn7.html Australia's position to date is a mixture of * Luck * Good Policy * Regulation Luck in that we had an economy that was already expanding, so there was somewhere sensible to invest without resorting to risk. Experience from deregulation in the '80s, when a few banks did go under, and some almost did. The corporate memory was able to look back a decade or so and remember that banking involves a good degree of prudence. Regulation against mergers and take overs of the larger banks means that they can concentrate on banking rather the high risk strategies needed to pursue and prevent predatory behaviour used to expand market share. |
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__________________
Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity. Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it. Hobbes |
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#18 |
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Other (please write in)
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NeverLand
Posts: 9,914
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__________________
As cultural anthropologists have always said "human culture" = "human nature". You might as well put a fish on the moon to test how it "swims naturally" without the "influence of water". -Earthborn |
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#19 |
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In the Peanut Gallery
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 29,665
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__________________
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill |
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#20 |
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Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Mt Disappointment
Posts: 33,328
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__________________
Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity. Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it. Hobbes |
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#21 |
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Up The Irons
Tagger
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 25,300
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__________________
WHAT CAN THE HARVEST HOPE FOR, IF NOT THE CARE OF THE REAPER MAN? - Death "Racism is a disease in society. We're all equal. I don't care what their colour is, or religion. Just as long as they're human beings they're my buddies." - Mandawuy Yunupingu, lead singer of Yothu Yindi |
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#22 |
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In the Peanut Gallery
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 29,665
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__________________
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill |
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#23 |
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Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Mt Disappointment
Posts: 33,328
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__________________
Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity. Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it. Hobbes |
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#24 |
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Banned
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 649
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Never mind what porkies the media feeds the sheep, we are in more than recession. Australia runs on export and growth and both have almost stopped. The public works (roads etc) is all that is keeping the wolf from the door. The real trouble will come if the USA - Israel or North Korea start a nuke exchange. The oil price will be the final nail in the coffin. Blue collar workers are in trouble and as they support white collar non-workers. Lets use the chance to purge the parasites. I will be writing to local council asking them why they ar'nt downsizing staff as we (the people) can no longer afford them.
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#25 |
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In the Peanut Gallery
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 29,665
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Aren't you retired oldbob? Sponging of the taxpayer with your seniors card and lower rates and utilities bills etc?
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__________________
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill |
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#26 |
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Banned
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 649
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#27 |
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Banned
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 649
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Cat got your tongue? lionking. Water shortage in western USA is and will affect Australia by causing price rises in food(20% of USA food was grown there) as this year is shaping up for starvation world wide. As much as we wish this possibility wrong I think we are a long way from the bottom, no signs of improvement.
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