Didja Hear About Iran?

[GreNME]

Time Magazine (online): Was Ahmadinejad's Win Rigged? - Five Reasons to suspect Iran's Election Results

Christian Science Monitor: Was Iran's election rigged? Here's what is known so far

Those are two of the better articles out there on the questions about the election we know so far. The biggest early skepticism came from Ahmadinejad claiming victory right away (which, admittedly, caused Moussavi to claim victory in response), the nearly opposite numbers of the votes to the known representative regions that were clearly favoring Moussavi, and the practical landslide win on what was (up until the day of voting) looking to be a very close election. Also, Khamenei didn't wait the three days to announce the winner as was customary, which doesn't seem like much on its own but definitely sparked distrust. Honestly, if Ahmadinejad had won by only a few percentage points (maybe 54% to 46%) or less, it's doubtful that there would be any protesting in the streets right now. Later on reports of ballots were coming in at higher numbers than the populations in the cities, a couple claiming to have a ballots in the percentage of about 141% to the number of voting citizens.

[ravdin]

Originally Posted by Cuddles

Out of interest, is there actually any evidence that the election was rigged? Obviously it's a little difficult to get reliable information at the moment, but it does seem that most of those involved in the protests are those with a horse in the race - someone who wants to be president, someone who wants to be Grand Ayatollah, and their supporters, especially students. Now, we may well support the things they claim to want, such as better education, democracy and so on, but that doesn't necessarily mean their claim of vote fixing that kicked all this off is actually true.

So what's the deal? Is there good evidence that the vote actually was fixed? Is this just being used as an excuse to start a revolution? Is it just being exploited by people looking for power? Do we actually have enough information to come to any kind of reliable conclusion?

My best understanding is that there is no smoking gun, and there's unlikely to be one because of the lack of impartial observers. But there are some very suspicious, if circumstantial results- such as Ahmadinejad winning 60% of the vote in the heavily Kurdish province of Kermanshah, where he has virtually no support. Apparently, this is about as likely as Dick Cheney winning San Francisco's vote in a landslide.

There's a more statistical analysis of the vote results here. Their conclusion: it's fishy but there's no hard proof of fraud just from the numbers.

[GreNME]

A video example of the damage done by Basij forces breaking into Tehran University overnight to beat on students who protested and to take some of them away. Keep in mind that this damage is said to have been done by government forces, not the protesters. These are students trying to record the damage done to where they go to school and live.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the JREF. The JREF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the JREF. The JREF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

To download a bunch of videos (via Torrents), this page has a list.

Collection of photos from one of yesterday's rallies in Iran.

An e-mail from inside Iran to someone at NPR describes some of the brutality taking place.

Supreme Leader Khamenei is calling for a gathering of people for him to lead a special prayer (and speech) on Friday. The protesters are in a rough situation here, because this could very likely be a trap to arrest more protesters out in the open and not going could look like people are against Islam, which can be punishable by death.

[portlandatheist]

Originally Posted by GreNME

Time Magazine (online): Was Ahmadinejad's Win Rigged? - Five Reasons to suspect Iran's Election Results

Christian Science Monitor: Was Iran's election rigged? Here's what is known so far

Those are two of the better articles out there on the questions about the election we know so far. The biggest early skepticism came from Ahmadinejad claiming victory right away (which, admittedly, caused Moussavi to claim victory in response), the nearly opposite numbers of the votes to the known representative regions that were clearly favoring Moussavi, and the practical landslide win on what was (up until the day of voting) looking to be a very close election. Also, Khamenei didn't wait the three days to announce the winner as was customary, which doesn't seem like much on its own but definitely sparked distrust. Honestly, if Ahmadinejad had won by only a few percentage points (maybe 54% to 46%) or less, it's doubtful that there would be any protesting in the streets right now. Later on reports of ballots were coming in at higher numbers than the populations in the cities, a couple claiming to have a ballots in the percentage of about 141% to the number of voting citizens.

Great links.
Here is another point Michael Totten made:

Quote:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has almost no support among Kurds whatsoever. Claiming he “won” 70 percent in Kermanshah is as outlandish as Dick Cheney winning San Francisco and Berkeley in a landslide.

[GreNME]

Yeah, good point. It wasn't just Kurdish areas, either. Almost all of the areas with a large non-Persian ethnic presence were mostly not supporting (or opposing outright) Ahmadinejad, and yet he won all of these areas by a huge margin.

[Bill Thompson]

Originally Posted by Cuddles

Out of interest, is there actually any evidence that the election was rigged? Obviously it's a little difficult to get reliable information at the moment, but it does seem that most of those involved in the protests are those with a horse in the race - someone who wants to be president, someone who wants to be Grand Ayatollah, and their supporters, especially students. Now, we may well support the things they claim to want, such as better education, democracy and so on, but that doesn't necessarily mean their claim of vote fixing that kicked all this off is actually true.

So what's the deal? Is there good evidence that the vote actually was fixed? Is this just being used as an excuse to start a revolution? Is it just being exploited by people looking for power? Do we actually have enough information to come to any kind of reliable conclusion?

Yes, there good evidence. Here it is.

The earliest MSNBC online report from Teheran (go to msn.com and look at the news reports) had a reporter specifically say that the ballots were to be checked by hand and in a country of over 10 million where more than 60 percent voted, it would be impossible for the election results to be announced so soon.

The man who said this is named "Richard Engel" he is NBC foreign correspondent. Google his name for his reports.

Strangely, tho, there is an unfortunate spin to all this that noone seems to be aware of. Our technology is unintentionally meddling in their affairs. We don't think so. But I can see how they would see it as such. So, once again, we are screwed. I think we had no idea that ousting the democratically elected president because he nationalized the oil companies would come back to bite us. But it did. I think we had no idea that allowing the Sha passage into the country would come back to bite us. But it did. I think we have no idea that our cultural and technological influence into Iran will come back to bite us. But I think it might.

[ohms]

There is also a letter to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stating the 'real' result that Ahmadinejad came third. Frankly, it looks suspiciously like a fake but it seems to have Mousavi's supporters quite upset.

More here:

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion...l-1707896.html

[Bill Thompson]

I think this thread should merge with the one about the election in IRan (if it has not done so already)

Shouldn't this discussion merge with this one?
http://forums.randi.org/showthread.p...=1#post4825593

[Bill Thompson]

I addition to Richard Engel, Gary Sick, a Columbia University professor and Iranian-affairs adviser for three U.S. Administrations, said that given the apparent record turnout, it would have been impossible to announce a definitive result so soon after the polls closed, because Iran does not use voting machines.

http://www.time.com/time/specials/pa...904640,00.html

The Interior Ministry announced the first results within an hour of the polls closing.

[alfaniner]

I think tomorrow (maybe even now, in their time zone) things are going to hit the fan, big time.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by alfaniner

I think tomorrow (maybe even now, in their time zone) things are going to hit the fan, big time.

Maybe:

updated 46 minutes ago
In Iran, people await supreme leader's sermon

Scrutiny turns to Iran's supreme leader on Friday, when he will deliver a sermon to a nation that has been swept up in several days of post-election protests. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is to speak at mid-day Friday during prayers at Tehran University. Khamenei's speech will be scrutinized for signs of how the government plans to resolve the disputed presidential election. full story

[Merko]

I see a lot of claims from various Iranians in exile, or people presented as Iran experts, that they just can't 'believe' result X or Y. For example, that they somehow know that Ahmadinejad didn't have any support by Kurds or other ethnic groups, or that he 'could not' have won in big cities, or whatever. But what is this really based on?

Case in point: I'm a left winger myself. Most people I know are left wingers. Looking at my neighbourhood, and most places I know around where I live (Stockholm, Sweden), it would make a lot of sense to me that most people around here would vote to the left. Yet, that is consistently not the case when we actually have elections, or when credible opinion polls are made. There are clearly a lot of people around that don't vote the way I would expect them to vote, and/or entire demographic segments that I just don't have enough interaction with.

All polls I've seen from Iran predicted that Ahmadinejad would win handsomely. The only polls I've heard about that said otherwise are rumoured as 'secret government polls'. That sounds rather fishy to me. Also, while there's no denying that there are a lot of students protesting on the streets (and a few non-students as well), there's also no denying that the Ahmadinejad supporters have also been numerous.

Then we have this claim about results being announced too early. Well, I sort of followed the announcements of results on that night. Through Western media, I must admit. My clear memory though, was that the pace of results was quite similar to what we had here in Sweden when we had elections on June 7. It didn't take long before about 25% of the votes were counted, and because the Ahmadinejad margin was so large, it seemed very unlikely that final results would go in a completely different direction. I wept a bit and focused on other things.

And then there's this constantly reoccuring claim that results were the same from all parts of the country. Well, looking at the announced results from different regions, that just isn't true. They claim Ahmadinejad won in the Semnan province by 78% against 20%, but in Sistan/Balouchestan, Mousavi is said to have won with 52% against 46%.

[GreNME]

Originally Posted by Bill Thompson

I think this thread should merge with the one about the election in IRan (if it has not done so already)

Shouldn't this discussion merge with this one?
http://forums.randi.org/showthread.p...=1#post4825593

No, and I'd really appreciate it if you didn't hijack this thread to try to turn it into one specifically on the election. This one is focusing on the protests and the people there, which is why it's in the 'Social Issues and Current Events' section as opposed to the 'Politics' one. Please don't change that.

[Cuddles]

Well, the speech has been given, and it doesn't look especially good for the protesters.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/8108661.stm

How much power does the guardian council actually have relative to the Grand Ayatollah? Now that Khamenei has officially thrown his lot in with Ahmadinejad, is that pretty much game over, or could they challenge him without needing an actual revolution?

[GreNME]

The WSJ has produced an article collecting many messages from people in Iran. For those of you who may have wanted a more linearly readable format: The Fear is Gone: Voices from Iran.

A video montage of Moussavi:

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I AGREE

Included is a statement he made. Translation (of the statement/speech): "I have come due to concerns of current political and social conditions - to defend the rights of the nation. I have come to improve Iran's International relations. I have come to tell the world and return to Iran our pride, our dignity, our future. I have come to bring to Iran a future of freedom, of hope. I have come to represent the poor the helpless the hungry. I have come to be accountable to you my people and to this world.

Iran must participate in fair elections, it is a matter of national importance. I have come to you because of the corruption in Iran. 25% inflation means ignorance - thieving - corruption - where is the wealth of my nation? What have you done with $300 billion in last 4 years - where is the wealth of the nation? The next Government of Iran will be chosen by the people. Why do all our young want to leave this country?

I know of no creation who places himself ahead of 20 million of the nation. We are Muslims - what is happening in Iran's Government is a sin! This Government is not what Imam Khomeini wanted for Iran - I will change all this - This is the sea of green!!"

Independent.co.uk article lists some interesting things:

• In an attempt to defuse calls for a rerun, Iran's Governing Council promised to listen to the candidates "express their ideas" about the election. It also said it was examining 646 complaints.
  
• Meanwhile, it was clear where President Ahmadinejad wanted to place the blame for the crisis. He told his cabinet that the vote's legitimacy was being questioned because it was a "challenge to the West's democracy."
  
• Also focusing on foreign elements, the Intelligence Ministry said that it had uncovered proof of a bomb plot backed by American elements. The bombs were apparently supposed to go off in polling stations on election day.
  
• Iranian television showed former president Hashemi Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, rallying protesters. Hardliners accused her and her brother, Mahdi, of treason. The two were later barred from leaving Iran.
  
• In an echo of Twitter's decision to cancel planned maintenance to help protesters, YouTube broke from its usual policy of barring violent videos so that Iranians could "capture their experiences for the world to see".

I'm trying to find a full transcript, but Khamenei's speech was, as predicted, fairly venomous toward the protesters, calling them against Islam, enemies of the state, and other similar phrases.

[ZirconBlue]

Originally Posted by Cuddles

Well, the speech has been given, and it doesn't look especially good for the protesters.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/8108661.stm

How much power does the guardian council actually have relative to the Grand Ayatollah? Now that Khamenei has officially thrown his lot in with Ahmadinejad, is that pretty much game over, or could they challenge him without needing an actual revolution?

The guy who wrote this book was on NPR this morning. He stated that the Supreme Leater is selected by an elected "Council of Experts", which have the power to overrule him on individual decisions or Impeach him outright. It wasn't clear to me whether this "Council of Experts" is the same as the Guardian Council.

[GreNME]

Originally Posted by Cuddles

Well, the speech has been given, and it doesn't look especially good for the protesters.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/8108661.stm

How much power does the guardian council actually have relative to the Grand Ayatollah? Now that Khamenei has officially thrown his lot in with Ahmadinejad, is that pretty much game over, or could they challenge him without needing an actual revolution?

He could be challenged by the Council, but that wouldn't necessarily mean much without enough people and possibly some measure of force backing them for it to work. The Supreme Leader has his own small army (the IRG), and is considered an authority that "shouldn't" (though there are exceptions, like obvious transgressions on Islam) be challenged.

It's not really game over, but I highly doubt that any successful challenge of Khamenei could happen without at least something akin to a revolution (like these protests).

ETA: Al Jazeera live video feed for those interested. Every few minutes they go back to the issue of Iran, and they occasionally have people on their phone or reporting from Iran. There was one Moussavi supporter just a few minutes ago.

[richardm]

Originally Posted by Cuddles

Out of interest, is there actually any evidence that the election was rigged? ... Do we actually have enough information to come to any kind of reliable conclusion?

According to the BBC:

Originally Posted by Evil network of treacherous Radio

The way the result was announced was very unusual. It came out in blocks of millions of votes, in percentages, rather than being announced province-by-province as in past elections.
And as the blocks of votes came in, the percentages for each candidate changed very, very little. That suggested that Mr Ahmadinejad did equally well in rural and urban areas. Conversely, it suggested that the other three losing candidates did equally badly in their home regions and provinces.
This overturns all precedents in Iranian politics and there has been no explanation, despite repeated questions, from the authorities.
It is all very suspicious. But it does not necessarily mean there has been widespread electoral fraud. For example, a group of international pollsters did an independent telephone survey three weeks ago which suggested a two-to-one level of popular support for Mr Ahmadinejad over Mr Mousavi, with the other candidates on less than two percent each.

I've also seen claims that the turnout was something like 140%, but not confirmed ones. So no, still nothing absolutely concrete. I think it's kind of gone beyond evidence now anyway, everyone has made their mind up one way or the other and are unlikely to believe anything the other side says to the contrary. And now it's a question of whether the protests fizzle out or explode, I suppose.

[Oliver]

Quote:

updated 28 minutes ago
Chants against West punctuate defiant speech

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sent a clear message after days of protests: Enough is enough. With more demonstrations possible Saturday, Khamenei warned: Those who "take wrong measures which are harmful, they will be held accountable for all violence." He was interrupted by chants of "Death to America" and "Death to Israel." full story

So the protesters already forgot about the election fraud thingy then?

[ddt]

Originally Posted by Oliver

So the protesters already forgot about the election fraud thingy then?

Did you miss that Khamenei and Ahmathingie also could mobilize supporters?

[GreNME]

Actually, the use of anger against the West is an easy way to change the discussion. The disapproval of Western attempts to dictate, change, intimidate, or direct Iran is a fairly common national attitude that ranges from vehement anger to a general annoyance. Khamenei and Ahmadinejad making use of this attitude is a matter of common sense on their part, not unlike the use of general dislike of terrorists or illegal immigrants in the West.

It's for this reason that I'm greatly disappointed that Congress has passed the resolution 'supporting' Iranian protesters. It de-legitimizes the protesters' cause and momentum. That momentum doesn't seem to have been completely undermined yet, but that was a stupid move by the US legislative branch.

It's said that the violence has increased, and all over Iran there have been fights between the Basij and the protesters-- the Basij have been given the right to violence against protesters since Friday's speech by Khamenei. A mosque in Tehran was reportedly partially burned with protesters inside.

So far, the following are reports that have been confirmed by more than one person:
- at least 19 deaths, including what is becoming an iconic video of a young woman's graphic death (video WARNING: GRAPHIC CONTENT)
- authorities using water cannons, tear gas, and clubs on protestors (male and female, with some reports that the women are being beaten as hard if not harder than the men)
- helicopters dropping some sort of agent on protestors (likely CS). Khamenei claimed it was water to cool the protestors, Twitter reports that it burned and blinded people (it was NOT white phosphorous - burning sensation was consistent with CS)
- Basij using concrete-weighted PVC pipes as weapons.
- Basij marking doorways of protestor's homes
- At least one unit of the Iranian Police begged protestors for calm and peace
- Ministry of Culture on Saturday banned international media from reporting on the demonstrations unless they receive permission from Iranian authorities
- Iranian government has agreed to recount 10% of the votes, chosen at random
- Electricity was cut to many Tehran neighbourhoods on Saturday evening
- Mousavi issued a long statement today that asked protestors to remain peaceful (and not take revenge on the Basij), and demanded a new election. He also stated his readiness to become a martyr and asked iranians to strike in the event of his arrest.
- Hospitals have been recognized as unsafe, as Basij are laying in wait and taking injured people away
- Several Embassies are accepting injured iranians, and have asked for doctors to come forward.


The woman in the video mentioned (and linked, watch at your own risk very graphic) was reportedly named Neda. She was standing with her father not far from the heart of a protest (not in the middle of a protesting crowd). The comments connected to the video (so that ones who don't wish to see death can read):

Quote:

A young woman who was standing aside with her father watching the protests was shot by a basij member hiding on the rooftop of a civilian house. He had clear shot at the girl and could not miss her. However, he aimed straight her heart. I am a doctor, so I rushed to try to save her. But the impact of the gunshot was so fierce that the bullet had blasted inside the victim's chest, and she died in less than 2 minutes.

The protests were going on about 1 kilometers away in the main street and some of the protesting crowd were running from tear gass used among them, towards Salehi St.

There are a growing number of places online that can be used for updates, this bulletin board and this Tweet grid are two examples. Here is a partial quote from one of the posts in that bulletin board:

Quote:

Hi,

I'm Josh Shahryar AKA NiteOwl and I've been immersed in tweets from Iran for the past several hours. I have tried to be extremely careful in choosing my tweet sources and have tried maximally to avoid listening to media banter. What I have compiled below is what I can confirm through my tweets to have happened in the past day and in the past week in Iran. Remember, this is all from tweets. There is NOTHING included here that is not from a reliable tweet. No news media outlets have been used in the compilation of this short brief as I would like to call it.

...

6. Large numbers of Basij and IRG troopers have been stationed within the city. There have been reports of attacks on the Basijis by armed Iranians. Sources claim that Basijis are being arrested by these men who seem to have some level of support by the police. Although confirmed by several sources that the young men are getting organized and call themselves the National Iranian Resistance, this Brief will not go so far as to confirm it entirely. Please wait for confirmation by either us or MSM.

7. Sources have also confirmed that several high-ranking IRG members have been arrested today. They join several other members who were arrested in the past two days. At the same time, it is being reported that a few members of the IRG were seen laying down their arms around isolated pockets of protesters, telling them they won't fight fellow Iranians and had gone home. Sources also claim that the military is currently the only body that has not taken part in arrests, violence or other abuses. But according to them, Ahmadinejad has the support of the IRG and the Basji at this point.

...

Finally a few words to those who are reading this:

Iranians who are trying to connect to twitter or other sites and need a way to connect please visit this website: Why We Protest - IRAN - View Single Post - Using Tor in Order to Surf Anonymously

Images and vids and instructions on how to send them to us: https://trancy.net/iran/

For my announcements, see @iran_translator

People Outside Iran: This is as clear and concise as I can be. I have not included ANYTHING that I have sensed to be remotely fishy, but human error will always manifests itself in even the most flawless of non-mathematical things. However, this includes nothing from the Western media, including the BBC which I have been generously using to inform people and I laud them for their courageous journalism.

People Inside Iran: Don't believe a WORD of what I am telling you. Do what you think is best, keeping everything in mind. I know LITTLE of what you know so make your decisions based on your OWN judgment.

People Who Want to Send Me Tweet Links: You don't need to find me, I will find you. Don't hassle yourself. Your voice will be heard through millions of others like me.

People Who Want to Hunt Me Down: I'm an Afghan. If you ever tried to attack me, you'll see my back only after your back has met the ground.

P.S. Please post this around and tweet and retweet. I promise to make the next one faster than this one. I had to wait to make sure everything was as accurate as humanly possible.

And here is a list of fake twitter accounts that are offering either false information or intentionally fake ('disinfo') information.

[GreNME]

Ahmadinejad has made a public statement taking Khamenei's Friday speech as the okay to commit violence and lay the blame on his opponents (link).

[Darth Rotor]

Originally Posted by slingblade

OHNOES! Were any of them pregnant?

No, but I did hear that Chad 1 and Chad 2 were gay.




(Obscure reference to Chad Cat in the Hajj Hat)

ETA: GrenMe, this is a fine thread, and I agree with you as to the lack of utility in the US Congress expelling a bit of hot air over this problem in Iran.

[GreNME]

For those interested: a somewhat detailed article on the Basij.

From a more official source than in an earlier post: article reporting signs that the clerics in Iran are not in full agreement over the election results, and that some are wondering if a new model of government might be needed. To go along with this, a few more unofficial reports about Basij outposts being set fire or destroyed following the Basij attacks on student campuses and other homes are now circulating. The Basij attacks and the protester attacks on the Basij outposts are currently only being confirmed up to yesterday (no clear info about today's activities yet). The Basij and IRG are using evenings to break into people's homes and drag them out, usually beating or arresting them.

In a sign that these protests are not just students, the Autobus Workers Union of Iran has issued a statement in support of the protests (now defined as a civil rights movement, not a revolution) and ostensibly they will be going on strike.

The girl who was shot yesterday, "Neda," is being hailed as a martyr in some cases (link), which may wind up inflaming the situation over there even more. A supposed 'before Saturday' and 'after Saturday' letter from Neda's sister can be read here (not verified authenticity).

Even with the riot police, the Basij, and the IRG forces, as well as the dropping of CS (pepper spray compound) mixed with water on protesters, and despite the deaths so far, the government and police forces are finding that their main obstacle right now is numbers. A brief video taken on June 20th, at 6:34PM (Tehran time). Location: End of Zanjan St. at Yadegar Emam Freeway in Tehran, Iran.

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I AGREE

This WaPo article is saying that Moussavi has been officially declared a criminal for not stopping the protests.

[GreNME]

Remember that Grand Ayatollah (Montezeri) I mentioned earlier? Well, Montezeri has basically called out Khamenei with a recent statement:

Quote:

Every one of our religious brothers and sisters must help the nation in defending its lawful rights. Based on this principle, any resistance in this direction [against people who are defending their right], particularly use of violence, beating, and killing of [the people of] the nation is acting against the Islamic principle that the nation must decide its own fate and path and, therefore, I declare it to be religiously haraam [the worst sin].

Those are no small words considering the political power base there. Not only has he contradicted Khamenei's Friday speech blaming the protesters, but he's gone a step further and declared suppression of the people's will to be one of the worst types of religious sin. This is also on the heels of Moussavi urging more protests.

TehranBureau.com has actually been pretty good with keeping fairly current on the updates, if anyone is interested. Also for those interested, Chatham House (an international thinktank) has examined the election results and produced their own analysis behind questioning the election results.

In a lot of the discussions I've seen on the subject, CNN has taken a pretty hard beating for being slow to report, being inaccurate (toeing many Ahmadinejad administration lines) in its analyses, and in a more recent tweet allegations that this image that appeared on CNN was faked. I don't know whether it was a fake or not, but it does seem to not jibe with any of the videos coming out of Iran, where there aren't confrontations that close-up or picturesque (most of them involve protesters running and throwing stones when attacked with gas). The video below is an example of what I mean:

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the JREF. The JREF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

Okay, I'm off to a vigil (pointed out here) in front of a federal building here in Dallas. I may also go to the protest on Tuesday, but I haven't decided yet.

[GreNME]

well, the vigil turned into a protest on its own, but that ticked off a few people there and there was a bit of arguing (but not much). Some people were waving pre-revolution flags (same colors, with a lion insignia) and chanting marg bar dictator (down with / death to dictators), among other slogans and singing the national anthem. I'll probably post a video of the pictures I took, though I may wait until after the Tuesday protest in front of City Hall.

One of the people there claims her cousin was near the fatal shooting of the girl being called 'Neda'. Whether it's true or not I didn't bother getting into, because the girl was one of the people upset that others were starting up chants and protests when the original goal was a vigil commemorating the people who died. It could be true, or it could be that 'Neda' has already achieved folk status among Iranian-Americans-- I saw a few shirts mentioning Neda's death, actually-- but either way it wasn't the time to get into an interrogation with this woman. Instead I asked her to tell me about the last time she visited her family there (5 years ago, the land is beautiful, etc.), and told her of my hopes to one day visit and possibly do some study there.

While there, one of the older women came up to us and stated that an announcement was made by the Supreme Council, stating that there were indeed 'irregularities' in the voting, but she didn't have any details or explain how she got the information. We'll see over the proceeding days whether this in fact is true and what comes of it.

[GreNME]

It turned out the news I heard last night was accurate, but not as hopeful as when I first heard it. The Guardian Council (not called Supreme Council, I made a mistake there) did say they found irregularities, but that this probably doesn't change the outcome of the election. This gives the Guardian Council a way to save face if they do find in Moussavi's favor, and it also allows for a way that Khamenei may retain his position despite possibly having to leave Ahmadinejad hanging out to dry. No word on what's going to happen there.

There were more demonstrators out today, but they were smaller in numbers and this time outnumbered by the Basij, the riot police, and the IRG forces out there to clamp down. No reports of any deaths or great violence, but at night people are still going on their rooftops and making a lot of noise, particularly noise of the "Allahu Ackbar" (God is Great) and "Marg Bar Dictator" (Down With / Death To Dictator) type.

There's also a rally here in Dallas tomorrow afternoon at 1PM (CST). I'll be trying to attend, and anyone in the DFW is welcome.



Caption: Fearful Times! (Dutch, I think)

ETA: coming in late to add that one of the more cogent explanations of why the US should keep hands-off and not interfere has been put forth in a recent WaPo article by Paul J. Saunders, who is conservative and agrees with Obama's policy regarding Iran at the moment for similar reasons. I'm underscoring this article in particular to emphasize that this isn't a left/right issue, it's a foreign policy one where the US is sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place. There are some calls out there for the US to do something, even if it's mostly for show, in support of the Iranian protesters on an official basis, but as I stated in another thread (and is argued in the article) that would cripple the credibility of the movement on its own. Many Iranians want to establish positive relations with the West, but they don't want to be told what to do by the West, and all indications point to this type of nationalism (which should be familiar to us Americans) as being a major determining factor of any success or failure behind social reform movements in the Mid-East over the past 50 years.

Also, I realize I'm making a whole lot of posts here, often in succession to each other. If the moderation or a majority has a problem with me doing this and would rather I let this thread sink into the back pages, let me know.

[tyr_13]

Thank you for all the great updates GreNME. You're not repeating, and each post adds to the topic. I say keep it up.

[CelticRose]

Yes, please keep posting. This thread is a great way to stay up to date on the situation.

[GreNME]

The following video had me in tears by the end of it. This is a CNN piece with Melody Moezzi of the Huffington Post being interviewed about people she knows in Iran (family and friends). The tear-inducing part comes in at about 2:50 (but watch the preceding minutes), when she goes into the explanation for saying "natarsid, natarsid!" (don't worry, don't be afraid!) and "ya Neda" (Neda give me strength) and is clearly getting emotional herself. It struck me as powerful because of the people I talked to last night who were saying similar things, who are speaking from hope and their cultural or religious (or both) convictions that they (Iranians as a national people) will survive, that they will be free. I'm not religious, and I'm not of that culture, but the power and conviction behind her words is palpable.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the JREF. The JREF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

Interestingly enough, the phrase Melody Moezzi uses near the end, "Ya Neda," is already being worked on as a website in memory of the girl Neda-- whose name was Neda Agha Soltan, according to more recent reports-- at www.YaNeda.com and Ya-Neda.com (both go to the same parked domain).

Ettehad Ba Iran - Unity for Iran

ETA: FiveThirtyEight has an article about how the recent admission by the Guardian Council that there were voting irregularities may bite the government in the behind. A quote:

Originally Posted by 538

For all the complex series of statistics that have been run on Iran's election, it's the simplest that might prove to be the regime's downfall. More people "voted" than were eligible to vote -- in a lot of places. The interior ministry admits to 50 such instances out of the 300+ jurisdictions in which Iran tallied results. That is widespread, prime facie and admitted-to evidence of fraud, and I don't see how the Guardian Council expects people to buy the argument that whatever caused the tub to overflow in those 50 cities was not also tainting the results throughout the rest of the country. The Chatham House report we linked to earlier today found that there were more "votes" than voters in two entire provinces.

Emphasis theirs.

[quadraginta]

Originally Posted by GreNME

<snip>
Also, I realize I'm making a whole lot of posts here, often in succession to each other. If the moderation or a majority has a problem with me doing this and would rather I let this thread sink into the back pages, let me know.

Please don't. Your posts are the most content rich, unbiased ones in the thread.

I'll take all you've got the time for.

[GreNME]

The Guardian Council is now weaseling its way out of the irregularities. The top two excuses it's using right now are 1) there wouldn't have been enough difference in vote to change the outcome and 2) the alleged phenomenon of people who traveled from one city to another to vote accounts for the "more than 100%" irregularity. However, they're not addressing it directly and have instead created another bureaucratic entity to address things. A Fark poster gave a simplified breakdown of the circular logic the Guardian Council is using to avoid responsibility for addressing the acknowledged irregularities:
GC - For election irregularities you must speak NOT to us, but our Council for Electoral Legitimacy
World - Ok, how do we contact them?
GC - You can't.
World - Why not?
Gc - They have no phones.
World - Why not?
GC - We just created it.
World - When?
GC - Two days ago.
World - Well, since you created it, and we can't talk to them, we'll talk to you.
GC - No. It is not our job to investigate election fraud claims.
World - Who's job is it?
GC - Our Council on Electoral Legitimacy.

That's really not far off the mark for what's happening. The Guardian Council says there will be no re-voting to take place. Some Tweeters and bloggers have claimed that this video shows proof of vote-rigging, but it just seems too convenient that someone had a camera phone on and running for that long while it took place.

Moussavi is reportedly trying to talk worker unions and some other groups to go on strike, in an effort to bring Tehran to a standstill until the election issue is resolved. The police and Basij are out in full force again today, overwhelming the streets and breaking up any instances of people gathering that they find (sometimes with beatings or chasing, some also claim with tear gas). Moussavi's support hasn't waned, though: a national organization of clerics have issued a public statement in favor of Moussavi and rejecting Khamenei's claim that the violence is the fault of the protesters (statement found here:

Quote:

Millions of informed and decent people who believe that their votes have been tampered with, and that their intellect has been insulted, and for the defence of their rights and dignity have in a spontaneous manner come into the streets to express their pain and sense of oppression. You (the regime) insult them, and have stolen thousands of them from the streets and from their homes and taken them to unknown places. You have attacked the students and to these people who call out God is Great or Ya Hossein - you attack them like Moghuls.


You dare to blame these attacks on the people themselves.

We strongly support Mr. Mousavi - especially against the accusations that all the unrest and damage is due to his actions. This damage is the responsibility of those who turned our city into a barracks. They should be identified, arrested and charged.

For lots of videos and snippets of info, The Huffington Post has a decent video blog with lots to check out. A number of twitter feeds are on this twitter grid with some recent updates, as well.

There's a protest rally at City Hall today at 1PM, so off I go for that. I'll be back later with more updates.

[GreNME]

The protest was interesting, because it had many Iranian-Americans present. Many of them want the US to go in and help in some way, and even though I disagree I understand the mentality that they have-- most of these people were either people who fled in 1979 or were children of those who fled, so there's a charged set of emotions when they chant "down with the Islamic regime of Iran" together in this setting that goes back for decades.

One down side of the event was that there was some oddball from "America's Tea Party" going around to people and handing out fliers for a rally on the 4th of July. Totally inappropriate, in my opinion, and the guy looked more like he belonged down the road at Dealy Plaza telling everyone how the evil government killed JFK and were stealing our precious bodily fluids. Fringe freaks seem like gnats that are attracted to any and all protest rallies like moths to a bright light.

I'm going to try to collect the photos and video I have and put it on a Youtube video. There are likely many more that will come of better quality, though, as there were several people with cameras about.

Another day with little as far as protesting in city squares, but houses all over the nation have people on top at night screaming "Allahu Ackbar" and "Marg bar Dictator," among other anti-Ahmadinejad slogans. Many people are waiting for whether other public groups are going to join Moussavi in going on strike, which is supposed to happen soon (days differ depending on source). The electronic grapevine continues to get thinner as the government cracks down on communications, and at this point it's pretty certain that the best way for many people to get word out is through a proxy poster from another country, with whom they can establish secure communications.

This has every indication of beginning to go subversive along with the strikes, which doesn't bode well for the regime unless Khamenei gets more people to believe his lies about the US and the UK being involved.

[GreNME]

In a move of sheer stupidity, Iran 'retires' at least four of its national soccer team for wearing green armbands last week during a game in Seoul. It seems all of the players had their passports taken when they returned to Tehran, but Iran is out of the running in the tournament they were in anyway. Perhaps another nation might find a way to have these guys expatriate to play for their team. It would be only fitting.

Predictably, conspiracy theories have begun to emerge about the protests, blaming teh eval Israel (though the blogger claims he's not an anti-semite because he's "half-Jewish," whatever that means, and he has quotes from "Protocols" in his About page). While I can see why the CT-ists would want to support Ahmadinejad-- after all, he's the only national leader who would host a holocaust denial conference, which was attended (and favored) by many CT spokespeople-- I find it no less sickening and hateful. If anyone hears any of these conspiracy talking points parroted, though, these address the faulty claims:

1. They each created their twitter accounts on Saturday June 13th.
   • Most of these accounts were created directly in response to the election results, which were announced by Ahmadinejad late on the 12th.
2. Each had extremely high number of Tweets since creating their profiles.
   • Because they're covering the events the accounts were created to speak out about.
3. "IranElection" was each of their most popular keyword.
   • Because that's the subject that the accounts are discussing. It's also not the only one (#gr88 is another).
4. With some very small exceptions, each were posting in English.
   • Because most Iranians speak English as a second language, and usually use it for communicating on the Internet. It's a required subject in school. Most of the world has large portions of the population that speak more than one language (often English), yet America has one of the larger monolingual populations. Big FAIL here for the CT-ists.
5. Half of them had the exact same profile photo
   • Because the profile picture was created to promote the agenda relating to the events which the accounts are discussing under the tag IranElection.
6. Each had thousands of followers, with only a few friends. Most of their friends were each other.
   • Because they are in the same or similar situations regarding the protests, and want the information to be published. Adding friends is hardly a priority for people taking part in the protests (yes, add the friend while running from Basij), and the number of followers are not controlled by them.

Britain has responded to allegations by Ahmadinejad by kicking out two Iranian diplomats, which I think is a reasonable response given Iran has kicked out two of Britain's diplomats.

On the other side of the pond, here in the US, the White House has offered a translation of some of its blog posts in Persian (Farsi), like this transcript of the opening of today's press conference. Not sure what the action means, but you can be sure some people will freak out as if that means we're 'meddling' (you know who I'm talking about here).

One of the tweet lists states that Khamenei has accepted the Guardian Council's recommendation to extend the timetable for review of the election results. Many are skeptical that they'll admit the rigging, but hope is that enough pressure can be kept even without the excessive protesting (and accompanying violence) in the streets to push out Ahmadinejad and force the Guardian Council to reconcile some of the movement's demands for more civil rights. I point that last part out to underscore the fact that, in Iran (at least), this is still being focused on as a civil rights movement and not a revolution against the entire government. While some accept that a new government might be a necessary step, the goal here isn't to overthrow the whole government of Iran in favor of something representing the pre-1979 government-- at least, that isn't the goal of those who are in Iran (those outside of Iran may prefer the change). It's an important distinction to keep in mind about what's happening there, because if the impression focuses on this movement being a revolution against the government, then the expectations for progress change and a lot of people viewing what's going on will consider things pretty much 'lost' for the protesters. This is very much not the case, and analogies to 1979 are not going to make this a revolution just because we in the West may want it. Regardless of whether Moussavi or Ahmadinejad come out of this victorious, there is not going to be an American-style democracy. I'm just bringing that up because a lot of news reports and commentaries seem to at least be desiring such a result from this, and that was never a stated agenda for the protesters-- they want freedom, they want rights to speak their minds, they want their votes to count and not be dictated, and in most cases they would like to move toward relations with the West, but they're not looking to emulate the West in their government.

[MattusMaximus]

Originally Posted by GreNME

This has every indication of beginning to go subversive along with the strikes, which doesn't bode well for the regime unless Khamenei gets more people to believe his lies about the US and the UK being involved.

Yup, this is just the sort of thing I was expecting to happen. Too many people in Iran are too angry and have seen/done too much for this thing to just die. It will go underground... and I think there's going to be a significant Internet component to it.

Also, I don't think the "blame US/UK" bit will work - well, it'll probably work for the hardcore supporters of the theocracy, but then they'll believe anything they're told by Khamenei. But anyone who is skeptical of Khamenei & the theocrats is going to see right through it.

Keep up the posting, btw.

[shadron]

March on, GreNME, march on.

[GreNME]

Originally Posted by MattusMaximus

Yup, this is just the sort of thing I was expecting to happen. Too many people in Iran are too angry and have seen/done too much for this thing to just die. It will go underground... and I think there's going to be a significant Internet component to it.

Also, I don't think the "blame US/UK" bit will work - well, it'll probably work for the hardcore supporters of the theocracy, but then they'll believe anything they're told by Khamenei. But anyone who is skeptical of Khamenei & the theocrats is going to see right through it.

While the 'news cycle' is lean as far as stories, that doesn't mean there haven't been incidents. There are still reports of fights and collections of protesters in streets, but for not Moussavi and other protest leaders are calling on people to do things more on the down-low in order to A) keep people from getting arrested/killed and B) so that the planning and appeals to non-government organizations can build some momentum.

Here is a fairly decent op-ed piece on the current 'quiet' in Iran. The basic gist: this is not the generation of the 1979 revolutionaries, Khamenei clearly hasn't got the support/trust that Khomeini had, and the proverbial horse has left the barn. Oh, and if he stays in power, Ahmadinejad has pretty much lost any moral high ground he can claim from now on-- any time he tries to talk of justice or ethics, the video of Neda dying of a gunshot wound or some Basij beating a protester will be quick to come up in refutations.

Speaking of Neda: there are reports out there that some of the images circulating claiming to be the girl Neda Agha Soltani, but are actually a different Neda Soltani (who is still alive but also lives in Iran). This is a case of mistaken identity due to the similarity of names. It's sure to light a fire under the CT people, but the name 'Neda' is not a unique name in Iran despite how unique it may sound to English (particularly English-only) speakers. People are working on verifying which pictures are which person in a number of places now, so hopefully this molehill remains a molehill.

[GreNME]

I know I mentioned that there were still protests taking place in Iran, but now it seems that this has been confirmed up to at least yesterday by mainstream news outlets. An interesting aspect that is touched on in this article but is really very significant with regard to the government in Iran is that clerics are now being seen with the protesters. This is a huge deal because Iran has a highly theocratic government (as most people know), and (some of) the religious authorities are beginning to turn over to the population's cause. This is a much greater deal than is given credit for in the article I linked, if only because this shows just how fractured Grand Ayatollah Khamenei's credibility and standing as a Supreme Leader has become. Even if Khamenei doesn't lose his seat of power because of this, his political capital has now been all but spent and any hope he had of establishing a legacy is either greatly threatened or is totally gone. More on why this is such a huge deal in the post to follow this one.

The WSJ reported yesterday about a family who was forced to pay a "bullet fee" to retrieve their dead son's body, and I waited until today to get more confirmation on the story before I posted it. The article talks about the charges families are having levied against them as being for the cost of the bullet(s) used, but as far as I can tell this isn't exactly the case, though it isn't far from the reality. Families are indeed being charged money for many of the bodies that they are trying to secure from the authorities that took some bodies during the violence that was ensuing, some up to $5000 if the various claims are accurate. This is directly related to what Grand Ayatollah Khamenei proclaimed last Friday, that it is the protesters who are responsible for this and their actions, being proclaimed criminal, are exacting a cost on the families of the deceased as a result. Basically, more serious than the absurdity of a "bullet fee," these charges families are getting to receive their loved ones' bodies are just more examples of the regime trying to take the hardship that the protests are putting on the government and turn it back onto the people. I'm not sure why the government thinks this will be effective, but judging by their "overwhelming force" stance taken to try to stop the protesters it seems the only tool they have right now is oppressive reaction.

I don't know if it's been mentioned on news sources, but a lot of tweets out there are telling people who are injured at protests to go to the Italian embassy if they are in Tehran. The reason for this is that they can be treated (most likely outside the embassy) for many of their injuries, which lowers the likelihood of their being arrested at the hospitals-- which now have Basij present everywhere ready to turn any dissidents over to the authorities or arrest them on-the-spot.

There is a call for a day or mourning for Neda and others who have been unjustly killed from the protest. The best source for this date, going as close as possible to an Iranian/Moussavi supporter, has been this page (Google Translate version). The date is incorrectly listed as July, when the month being names is Tir from the Iranian calendar, and today is 3 Tir on the Iranian calendar. That means Moussavi will be giving a speech tomorrow at 5 PM and people are encouraged to wear green or have green armbands in commemoration. Amnesty International is supposedly also calling for this on Friday (June 26th) as well. The common chant that goes along with the sentiment here-- one that I've seen chanted at the Dallas protests and watched on videos elsewhere-- is "Natarsid! Natarsid! Mah hameh bah ham hastim!" (Don't be afraid! Don't be afraid! We are all in this together!).

[MattusMaximus]

Good articles, GreNME. Thanks for keeping us informed. I'm passing along as much as I can to others.

[tyr_13]

If the government had any lick of sense it would support these mourning observations and show sorrow of it's own at the sad violence. It has, thus far, seemed to do the opposite, even denying Neda a funeral. This will backfire.