Japanese Election

[Puppycow]

Voting just ended now. Waiting for the results. They should start coming in soon.
Expecting a landslide for the Democratic party of Japan.

[Puppycow]

It's already 155-39 in favor of Minshuto (the Democratic party of Japan)
Jiminto (LDP) has only 39. This party has had almost unbroken rule since the end of WW2.

[Puppycow]

Former Prime Ministers (Fukuda, Mori) are losing to upstarts.

[Puppycow]

The former ruling coalition includes Jiminto and Komeito (a Buddhist-affiliated party). Combined now they have 50 (41 and 9) so far, to 166 for Minshuto.

[Puppycow]

Each voter gets 2 votes, one for a specific representative for their district and one for "proportional representation" for a party. So actually former prime ministers and really senior politicians are probably safe even if they lose their home district, although it is still a harsh rejection.

The "proportional representation" part of the vote so far: 59 for Minshuto, 30 for Jiminto, 9 for Komeito (and a handful for minor parties). It looks like Minshuto won't need to form a coalition government with any other party.

[Hutch]

Just so Puppycow doesn't feel all alone...

This is a bit of a shockwave in Japan, the LDP has been in control since the 1950's IIRC, except for very short periods, and this looks like a near total repudiation of the entire slate, even worse than the Republican debacle here in 2008.

Puppycow, what changes are expected in Japanese politics/international relations with this change? Does the new ruling party have the same view of US-Japanese relations as the LDP? And what is their view regarding N. Korea?

Interesting political change. Now can the folks who have never held power hold onto it?

[Puppycow]

BTW, there's a total of 480 seats.
So far:
LDP: 42
Dem: 174
Ko: 9
Others: 6
Remaining: 249

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by Hutch

Just so Puppycow doesn't feel all alone...

This is a bit of a shockwave in Japan, the LDP has been in control since the 1950's IIRC, except for very short periods, and this looks like a near total repudiation of the entire slate, even worse than the Republican debacle here in 2008.

Puppycow, what changes are expected in Japanese politics/international relations with this change? Does the new ruling party have the same view of US-Japanese relations as the LDP? And what is their view regarding N. Korea?

Interesting political change. Now can the folks who have never held power hold onto it?

I don't expect really significant changes, to tell the truth, but we'll see. During the Bush years the Minshuto more critical of the LDP's close ties with the Bush administration, but they actively tried to associate themselves with Obama, running a campaign based on "change." And nobody here likes North Korea so they will probably be about the same in that respect. The did make noises about stopping naval cooperation with the US (mostly when Bush was president), but I don't really believe them.

[Delscottio]

After 50 years of pretty much one party thats a hell of a change in voting patterns for nigh on everyone, has anything dramatic happened over there for such a change?

[Puppycow]

The numbers I gave so far were from NHK, which tends to wait longer. Another channel which also includes projections based on exit polls has these numbers now:

LDP: 59
Dem: 276
Ko: 13
Others: 23
Remaining: 109

276 is already 57.5%, with over 100 seats left to decide.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by Delscottio

After 50 years of pretty much one party thats a hell of a change in voting patterns for nigh on everyone, has anything dramatic happened over there for such a change?

A series of unpopular Prime Ministers. And the economic crisis. Since Junichro Koizumi retired, the LDP has been in a major slump. The next 3, Abe, Fukuda and (currently) Aso have been just really unpopular.

Back to the slow-moving but more reliable NHK numbers again:
LDP: 43
Dem: 182
Ko: 9
Others: 8
Remaining: 238

[Puppycow]

Had to go pick up my daughter from Juku.

NHK is now at:
LDP: 51
Dem: 230
Ko: 9
Others: 13
Remaining: 177

[WildCat]

Should the fleet at Pearl Harbor be on high alert?

[andyandy]

It's about time someone other than the LDP had a crack at running the country. Though it's hard to imagine much change. One group of privileged white-haired suited old men being replaced by another group of privileged white-haired suited old men. And there is such institutional conservatism built into the institutions of state, and seemingly into society itself one wonders what reform will actually happen. What is the Democratic party manifesto? Are they going to grasp the nettle and look to immigration as a means of solving the ageing population timebomb, or just ignore it like the previous lot?

[Puppycow]

They've passed the 240 halfway mark:

LDP: 58
Dem: 244
Ko: 10
Others: 15
Remaining: 153

The next prime minister: Yukio Hatoyama of Hokkaido.

Not surprisingly, one of the casualties was former finance minister Shoichi Nakagawa.

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I AGREE

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by andyandy

It's about time someone other than the LDP had a crack at running the country. Though it's hard to imagine much change. One group of privileged white-haired suited old men being replaced by another group of privileged white-haired suited old men. And there is such institutional conservatism built into the institutions of state, and seemingly into society itself one wonders what reform will actually happen. What is the Democratic party manifesto? Are they going to grasp the nettle and look to immigration as a means of solving the ageing population timebomb, or just ignore it like the previous lot?

The proportion of women seems to be going up. I don't know the number but I was pleasantly surprised to see a lot more female faces come up winners this time.

As you say though, winning the election is one thing, but I don't think anyone really knows what they will end up doing (including the party itself).

For example:

Quote:

"I believe we are not in a situation to quickly decide on personnel affairs," Hatoyama said at a televised press conference as media polls show that the DPJ is headed for a landslide victory.
. . .
Commenting on administrative reforms, Hatoyama said that the DPJ government would soon organize a grand policy-making body called the national strategy office, which is expected to outline Japan's national budget and set the nation's foreign and security policies.

The office is expected to be later turned into what the party dubs as the National Strategy Bureau. In an extraordinary Parliamentary session, which some local media expect will be convened as early as in October, the DPJ plans to change existing laws to formally establish the bureau.

IOW, they have plans to make plans.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Former Prime Ministers (Fukuda, Mori) are losing to upstarts.

I have to correct this. What I saw was preliminary. Fukuda, at least, seems to have ended up winning. My wife seems to think that Mori did lose though, although she's not totally sure. Also, former prime minister Kaifu Toshiki appears to have lost.

ETA: Mori actually won.

[Puppycow]

Getting a little regression to the mean now.

Latest count:
LDP: 87
Dem: 272
Ko: 11
Others: 21
Remaining: 89

[geni]

Originally Posted by Delscottio

After 50 years of pretty much one party thats a hell of a change in voting patterns for nigh on everyone, has anything dramatic happened over there for such a change?

1) economic stagnation has become a downturn.
2) Lack of a stable leadership for the LDP
3) massive buracratic screwup with regards to pensions by the LDP.

[Childlike Empress]

Wikipedia on the philosophy of the Democratic Party of Japan:

Quote:

The Democratic Party claim themselves to be revolutionary in that they are against the current status quo and the governing establishment. The Democratic Party finds that the bureaucracy of the Japanese government size is too large, inefficient, and saturated with cronies and that the Japanese state is too conservative and stiff. The Democratic Party wants to "overthrow the ancient régime locked in old thinking and vested interests, solve the problems at hand, and create a new, flexible, affluent society which values people's individuality and vitality."[7]

The Democratic Party finds that a free market economic system is favorable for Japanese people's welfare. The claim is that they represent "citizens, taxpayers and consumers,"[7] not seeking to favor either free market or the welfare state and see the government's role as limited to building the necessary system for self-reliant and independent individuals.

The Democratic Party seeks to introduce transparency of government and a decentralization of government agencies to local organizational structures including to let citizens themselves provide former government services and have a society with more just and fair rules. The Democratic party proclaims to hold the values in the meaning of the constitution to "embody the fundamental principles of the Constitution: popular sovereignty, respect for fundamental human rights, and pacifism,"[7] having an international-policy non-intervention and mutual coexistence and to restore the world's trust in Japan.[7]

Asia Times on the philosophy of Yukio Hatoyama:

Quote:

Despite his wealth and privilege, Hatoyama is trying to position himself politically as a man of the people ahead of the election, for example, by often talking about weakening the culture of hereditary politicians in Japan, which is in his party's election manifesto. Yet when Hatoyama speaks Japanese, he invokes particular honorifics that most people seldom use in their daily lives, highlighting his prestigious upbringing.

Hatoyama says he aims to implement the political philosophy of European integrationist Count Coudenhove-Kalergi. In an essay in the September edition of the monthly magazine Voice published August 10, Hatoyama said the philosophy of yuai or "fraternity", translated by his grandfather Ichiro, from Coudenhove-Kalergi's writings, is his policy platform, which is geared towards weakening Japan's bureaucracy and rejecting the US-led global capitalism that brought about the economic crisis.

With the motto of yuai, Hatoyama says he hopes to leave behind parochial nationalism and jingoism and instead further develop the East Asian Community to the extent that it resembles an Asian version of the European Union. He also advocates a common Asian currency as a natural extension of the rapid economic growth in the region.

I didn't know that Coudenhove-Kalergi had a japanese mother. Interesting. He and his Paneuropa Union, led by Otto von Habsburg after his death, are indeed very much the fathers of the European Union.

[Tsukasa Buddha]

Seems pretty awesome, but I have to see them in action before I can judge properly.

[andyandy]

Originally Posted by Tsukasa Buddha

Seems pretty awesome, but I have to see them in action before I can judge properly.

I predict several months of stagnation when nothing much happens, a corruption scandal involving a construction company with Mafia links and political donations, some inopportune comments about women or foreigners, belated attempts to reform the public sector and farming subsidies being abandoned after provoking widespread unpopularity, leading to the resignation of the Democratic leader, the early dissolution of parliament and a return to power for the LDP within two years.

[Puppycow]

Just woke up. According to NHK, here's the final count.

LDP: 119
Dem: 308
Ko: 21
Others: 32
Remaining: 0

308 is over 64% of the seats. They also control the upper house so they have to political freedom to do what they want.

[Ysidro]

I do wonder if they won by promising far more than they can actually give though. It will be an interesting few years in Japan, that's for sure!

[tyr_13]

Woo hoo. Does this mean they'll reconsider my JET application?

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by Ysidro

I do wonder if they won by promising far more than they can actually give though. It will be an interesting few years in Japan, that's for sure!

Their job as I see it is to manage Japan's decline, to make it as humane as possible. I don't expect too much. Did they make grand promises? I don't think in a democracy you can get elected without telling people you can make things better, even if decline is already pretty much baked into the cake. When your public debt (to GDP) is already second only to Zimbabwe and your population pyramid is going to turn upside-down, what can be done?

Their main challenge will be to not exacebate the problems by being unnecessarily incompetant (like, losing everyone's social security records).

[Puppycow]

Here is a recent Op-Ed by Hatoyama:

Quote:

August 27, 2009
Op-Ed Contributor
A New Path for Japan
By YUKIO HATOYAMA

TOKYO — In the post-Cold War period, Japan has been continually buffeted by the winds of market fundamentalism in a U.S.-led movement that is more usually called globalization. In the fundamentalist pursuit of capitalism people are treated not as an end but as a means. Consequently, human dignity is lost.

How can we put an end to unrestrained market fundamentalism and financial capitalism, that are void of morals or moderation, in order to protect the finances and livelihoods of our citizens? That is the issue we are now facing.

In these times, we must return to the idea of fraternity — as in the French slogan “liberté, égalité, fraternité” — as a force for moderating the danger inherent within freedom.

Fraternity as I mean it can be described as a principle that aims to adjust to the excesses of the current globalized brand of capitalism and accommodate the local economic practices that have been fostered through our traditions.

The recent economic crisis resulted from a way of thinking based on the idea that American-style free-market economics represents a universal and ideal economic order, and that all countries should modify the traditions and regulations governing their economies in line with global (or rather American) standards.

In Japan, opinion was divided on how far the trend toward globalization should go. Some advocated the active embrace of globalism and leaving everything up to the dictates of the market. Others favored a more reticent approach, believing that efforts should be made to expand the social safety net and protect our traditional economic activities. Since the administration of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (2001-2006), the Liberal Democratic Party has stressed the former, while we in the Democratic Party of Japan have tended toward the latter position.
. . .

[tyr_13]

Fox news is already trying to spin this as a 'warning' for Democrats.

[ARubberChickenWithAPulley]

I have been abducted by aliens, says Japan's first lady

Quote:

Miyuki Hatoyama, wife of Japan's Prime Minister-elect, Yukio Hatoyama, is a lifestyle guru, a macrobiotics enthusiast, an author of cookery books, a retired actress, a divorcee, and a fearless clothes horse for garments of her own creation, including a skirt made from Hawaiian coffee sacks. But there is more, much more. She has travelled to the planet Venus. And she was once abducted by aliens.

Oohhhh boy, here we go. Well, we had Nancy Reagan and her astrology so I guess we can't talk. Hatoyama himself seems reasonably well-grounded.

[tyr_13]

Already a thread on that in the General section too for those interested.

[SezMe]

Puppycow, you commented on relations with N. Korea. Any thoughts about S. Korea?

[Puppycow]

I'm no expert on this, but I think that relations between Japan and S. Korea are reasonably good considering the history. Both countries seem to import a certain amount of popular culture from each other. My default assumption with the DPJ is that not much of substance will change, but they might garner more goodwill by avoiding symbolic gestures that make the neighbors remember the unfortunate history before the end of WW2.

BTW, regarding N. Korea, there used to be parties in Japan that were more dovish on N. Korea, but the abduction issue really cut those parties off at the knees. When a country kidnaps and murders children from another and then lies about it and still refuses to come clean to this day, it kind of has that effect. The Government of North Korea is so despicable that it is politically impossible for anyone to be dovish about them.

[shuize]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Their job as I see it is to manage Japan's decline, to make it as humane as possible. I don't expect too much. Did they make grand promises? I don't think in a democracy you can get elected without telling people you can make things better, even if decline is already pretty much baked into the cake. When your public debt (to GDP) is already second only to Zimbabwe and your population pyramid is going to turn upside-down, what can be done?

No kidding. I'm not real sure how it is that the Yen is still so strong ... I keep waiting for the collapse before buying a house but it never seems to come.

Quote:

Their main challenge will be to not exacebate the problems by being unnecessarily incompetant (like, losing everyone's social security records).

Yeah. I keep that one filed away for future use just in case anyone here ever tries to tell me how incompetent the U.S. government is.

Quote:

BTW, regarding N. Korea, there used to be parties in Japan that were more dovish on N. Korea, but the abduction issue really cut those parties off at the knees. When a country kidnaps and murders children from another and then lies about it and still refuses to come clean to this day, it kind of has that effect. The Government of North Korea is so despicable that it is politically impossible for anyone to be dovish about them.

North Korea is so stupid. They could have opened up and normalized relations back when Japan was riding the peak of its economic wave and collected bazillions of yen in "We feel bad about WWII just don't make us talk about it" guilt money. Now, with all the revelations about the kidnappings and North Korea's "Oh, here's a box of chicken bones the Dear Leader says are your relatives now go away" ham-fisted responses, they'll be lucky to even get the Japanese Communist Party on their side.