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#1 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: London
Posts: 10,894
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AGW- Please ease me in.
So, like most people, I understand there is something called Climate Change, but I really don't know the first thing about it.
Ever since I studied Venus at school, I always took it as a given that an excess amount of C02 could destroy a planet. But asked to defend the case for AGW, and I wouldn't be able to do it. So please scramble my ignorance. Is there really a huge scientific consensus that Humanity is to blame for the rise in the Earth's temperature? Is the scientific opinion in line with media hype, or will this be a case when we look back and realise the effects were still there, but milder than we initially thought? Other than An Inconvient Truth (Which I didn't think was all that powerful), could you recommend any youtube/videogoogle videos, docs to break me in on the issue? |
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Man's material discoveries have outpaced his moral progress. - Clement Attlee, 1945 |
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#2 |
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Gatekeeper of The Left
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: The Universe 35.2 ms ahead of this one.
Posts: 32,222
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Are you IN? Join the IN crowd now! |
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#3 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: North
Posts: 1,457
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I recommend The Discovery of Global Warming, especially in book form. Or you can read it online:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/ The book isn't that long, but it thoroughly covers the development of the scientific idea of global warming. I would recommend this book over any other that I have read on the subject. |
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#4 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,872
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both of the above are very good places to start
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"Anything's possible, but only a few things actually happen" |
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#5 |
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Schrödinger's cat
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Wiltshire, UK
Posts: 4,241
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As always I recommend the two free Open University courses on the subject.
Introductory level (5 hours study): http://openlearn.open.ac.uk/course/view.php?id=1526 Intermediate level (18 hours study): http://openlearn.open.ac.uk/course/view.php?id=2805 |
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#6 |
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Muse
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 873
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Walrus,
Good luck. I’ve spent hours and hours reading everything. I’m still not enlightened. If you read the stuff in the links attached you will come to the following conclusions. The earth is Warming A lot of things, natural and unnatural, cause climate changes. Scientists cannot find natural causes for the current warming trend CO2 causes warming, man produces a lot of CO2. CO2 is the cause of current warming. Man is the cause of current warming So logically you would ask yourself how much warming can CO2 cause. Please study the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, its % effect in terms of warming and the % of it that is there because of man. It may redefine the conclusions you initially reached. |
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#7 |
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Gatekeeper of The Left
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: The Universe 35.2 ms ahead of this one.
Posts: 32,222
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What Aussie Thinker never seems to be able to understand is that the earth would be an iceball without CO2.
It has an amazingly large effect on heat retention of the planet in spite of the small percentage of the air it makes up. Correspondingly, a change in the amount in air that seems to be small has a fairly large effect. We've explained that to him before. |
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#8 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Planet earth on slow boil
Posts: 4,602
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Quote:
Quote:
![]() GHG physics has been understood for over 100 years.....some really ARE behind the times... This a bit of an omnibus of resources and always expanding http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/network and this a bit more on the tech side http://www.nature.com/climate/index.html |
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Mainstream climate science sources others have found useful. ![]() ![]() http://www.macmagic.ca/ubbthreads.ph...5753#Post45753 Nature Reports Climate Change Copenhagen Climate Change Synthesis Report 2009 |
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#9 |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 1,258
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#10 |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 1,258
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No.
31,478 Scientists Reject 'Global Warming' Agenda (Petition Project) An Inconvenient Truth is a science fiction fantasy movie that has been debunked in a UK Court. Proof: 'An Inconvenient Truth' is Science Fiction (Video) (1min) Judge attacks nine errors in Al Gore's 'alarmist' climate change film (Daily Mail, UK) 35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore’s movie (Science & Public Policy Institute) A Skeptic's Guide to An Inconvenient Truth (PDF) (Marlo Lewis Jr. Ph.D.) How many do you want? 20/20: Give Me a Break: Global Warming (Video) (8min) Apocalypse? No! (Video) (1hr 26min) BS! - Environmental Hysteria (Video) (29min) BS! - Being Green (Video) (29min) CBC: Doomsday Called Off (Video) (44min) Climate Catastrophe Cancelled (Video) (25min) CNN: Exposed: Climate of Fear (Video) (42min) The Great Global Warming Swindle (Video) (1hr 14min) Unstoppable Solar Cycles (Video) (10min) The Skeptics Handbook (PDF) (Joanne Nova, Ph.D. Meteorology) Don't Believe the Hype (Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Atmospheric Science, MIT) |
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#11 |
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Muse
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 873
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Ben,
I wasn’t trying to influence Walrus, just asked him to look it up himself. It seems very clear when you look it up yourself that CO2 is a mild GHG. It seems when you look it up yourself most of the CO2 is NOT put there by man. But you are right about 1 thing it is helpful for making a more habitable planet. I know you have told me about CO2 helpfulness before and I did understand it, what you have struggled to explain is the harm it causes and how much of that is man made. |
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#12 |
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Gatekeeper of The Left
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: The Universe 35.2 ms ahead of this one.
Posts: 32,222
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I don't know why you think it is mild. Its the primary one.
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#13 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 16,744
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__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150 |
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#14 |
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Muse
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 873
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Mac,
Your links are almost exactly like Poptechs (and completely countered by them). Pretend you know nothing about GW or AGW and go into your linked pages. They tell you NOTHING.. except that it is warming and we are doomed.. link to something specific about WHY CO2 is the problem and HOW much of it is attributable to man. Your links are completely irrelevant.. I’ve trolled through them and wasted hours before. How do you even think they are relevant. Here is a full list of headings from the opening page of one of them The climate change game Climate change will devastate Africa, top UK scientist warns Keeping prediction in perspective Must-reads for Copenhagen Wrangle over how to pay greenhouse gas bill Green and greedy Sealing climate treaty 'impossible': UN All creatures small Refining the future None of them explain GW or mans role in it.. they are all political banter or doomsaying ! GHG Physics are know.. WE KNOW C02 HAS A WARMING EFFECT. GREAT ! And you know, unless you have NO comprehension the effect is mild and a small % is produced by man. |
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#15 |
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Gatekeeper of The Left
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: The Universe 35.2 ms ahead of this one.
Posts: 32,222
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Again, its not a mild effect at all. This is your primary error.
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#16 |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 1,258
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Nothing substantial?
RealClimate.org Hosted by - Environmental Media Services Environmental Media Services (EMS) (Discover the Networks)
Quote:
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#17 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 16,744
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You must have missed the part about Venus still being there, thoroughly undestroyed.
Quote:
The importance of the subject is evident in the upcoming Copenhagen Conference. Humanity (in a sense) meeting to discuss rescuing the situation it has created. I doubt it'll show humanity at its best, but there it actually is. The quick story is that CO2 is what has kept the world warm enough for liquid water, and we've increased the amount by over a third in little more than a century. That has to make a difference. |
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It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150 |
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#18 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 1,496
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I second Pixels recommendation of the Open University courses. Do both those and you'll be more than up to speed.
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts. - Bertrand Russell |
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#19 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 16,744
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__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150 |
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#20 |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 1,258
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Plenty more...
Environmental Media Services (EMS) (Activist Cash)
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I just proved it. Who hosts Realclimate.org Dodger? |
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#21 |
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Muse
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 873
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Ben,
I get the feeling we are not helping Walrus but just pushing our own opinion now
Quote:
CO2 (and Methane etc) pretty much accounts for the other 5% Man accounts for about 5-6 % of CO2 etc Simple maths shows man is responsible for about 0.25 – 0.30 % of global warming. The IPCC predicts temperature rise from 1.1 – 6 degrees over the next 100 years. Non doomsaying global temperature increase is expected to be 1-2 degrees over the next 100 years. Man is responsible for a massive .006 of a degree !!!! Simple maths. |
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#22 |
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Kowalski
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: gone
Posts: 9,286
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Yup.
Having spent months working with scientists on this very topic (developing educational resources on climate change), I can say that the science is often poorly reflected by both sides of the 'agenda'. Terms like 'save the planet' are bandied around in an effort to slap people in the face and make them care. Unfortunately, it not only reduces people's desire to do something, it's perfect fodder for denialists. Because, ultimately, the planet isn't doomed. It doesn't need saving. Civilisation won't end and life will continue to flourish. What WILL happen is that our way of doing things will have to change on a relatively short time scale. Those with access to resources will survive, but will have their way of life changed. Those without will suffer adverse consequences as varied as having to move entirely, to facing depletion of certain resources such as food and water. Occasional freak weather events will become less than occasional, demanding an increase in disaster funds and/or an improvement in technology to deal with it. Again, civilisation won't crumble away, but it will have a cost.
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There is no 'rescuing' of a situation. If you imagine climate change like a slow river. It's moving, and we can't do a lot to stop that with modern technology. AGW has added water to the torrent, so to speak, increasing its speed. We can try to limit the water we're adding to reduce the potential severity of climate change events, but I fear AGW is often portrayed as something that, if stopped, will in turn stop climate change.
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Athon |
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#23 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 16,744
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It' a GHG, at least you got that much.
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But you don't believe in major changes from AGW. How does that work?
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__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150 |
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#24 |
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Kowalski
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: gone
Posts: 9,286
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#25 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Planet earth on slow boil
Posts: 4,602
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I think you will find that indicative of the mindset....
![]() •• Lets put the GHG aspect to bed....this is MEASURED...
Quote:
Some don't understand cumulative. CO2 does not reset each year...it climbs thanks to us so each year builds on the energy gain of the last 100 or 300.. If we stopped all C02 fossil emissions now it would continue to warm for 50-60 years to reach close to a radiative balance and then in minor way for thousands of years beyond at. |
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Mainstream climate science sources others have found useful. ![]() ![]() http://www.macmagic.ca/ubbthreads.ph...5753#Post45753 Nature Reports Climate Change Copenhagen Climate Change Synthesis Report 2009 |
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#26 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 16,744
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Back at ya
. "Destroy the planet" makes my teeth grind, and of course denialists present that as the only message. Ironically their "Destroy the economy" message is the only one they've got.
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AGW is another event in history, like the Industrial Revolution or the Mongol invasions. It just happens to be the one we're living through.
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For myself, I think the response to AGW will be regional at best, managing adjustment retroactively - firefighting, in effect. As a history buff I find the whole process fascinating, having covered my own arse reasonably well. |
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It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150 |
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#27 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 16,744
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It ain't so.
Quote:
RealClimate is exactly what it purports to be. It presents the actual science of climate and the science of events, such as Arctic sea-ice loss. I know you won't look for yourself because it's on your Proscribed List but I'm sure the Walrus will. Which leaves you preaching to yourself. |
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It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150 |
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#28 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 16,744
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__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150 |
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#29 |
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Acolyte of Víðarr
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: North of Reality
Posts: 43,011
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__________________
As Einstein once said, "If you can't think of something relevant to say, just make something up and attribute it to some really smart dead guy." "I find your lack of pith disturbing," - Darth Rotor .......... Don't be offended. I'm not calling you a serial killer. -- Ron Tomkins. |
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#30 |
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Kowalski
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: gone
Posts: 9,286
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I'm not sure I agree there. There are ample examples throughout history where climate events that have had no or little influence from humans have had a significant impact. Even short-term periods of climate change, such as the little ice age, have had an effect.
In the future we should aim to cope with anything nature throws our way. Sure, AGW increases the pace, frequency and severity of such events, but even if it's slowed it doesn't make it all go away. I don't think there is a degree of drought I'd be happy to ignore, for example. And sometimes I feel the message is that climate change is something that can be made to go away if we work hard enough, ignoring the fact climate change is always something that humanity will need to adapt to, at least in some way. Athon |
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#31 |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 1,258
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Really?
The propaganda is it is presenting the science, the reality is it is presenting the alarmist position as "science". Who is the Registrant Organization of RealClimate.org? |
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#32 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 16,744
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Yes..
Quote:
Quote:
Of course you could always present some examples from RealClimate that you find objectionable. Or just one? |
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It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150 |
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#33 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Tee Dot
Posts: 4,257
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You know I never really agreed with global warming skeptics but the size of Poptech's font is strangely convincing...
Perhaps there is something to their arguments after all?? |
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“ it has become my conviction that things mean pretty much what we want them to mean. We’ll pluck significance from the least consequential happenstance if it suits us and happily ignore the most flagrantly obvious symmetry between separate aspects of our lives if it threatens some cherished prejudice or cosily comforting belief" -Iain Banks |
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#34 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Planet earth on slow boil
Posts: 4,602
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You mean like loud and juvenile...
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__________________
Mainstream climate science sources others have found useful. ![]() ![]() http://www.macmagic.ca/ubbthreads.ph...5753#Post45753 Nature Reports Climate Change Copenhagen Climate Change Synthesis Report 2009 |
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#35 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 1,496
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Yes I alway find myself compelled by barely coherant shouting.
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__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts. - Bertrand Russell |
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#36 |
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Muse
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 873
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Athon,
If 5 % of GHG is CO2 and 6 % of that is man made then .05 x .06 = 0.003. 0.003 x 2 degrees = .006 of a degree ! BTW : I like your less doomsday take on GW or AGW. And I am not adverse to cutting CO2 regardless of what I think is its limited effect on warming. Also.. you beat me too it.. NON AGW has contributed to MASSIVE changes in Earths climatic history. |
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#37 |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 1,258
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#38 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 16,744
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Not a significant one. History is perfectly explicable without reference to climate change, and the effort to read climate into history is a relatively recent one.
Depletion of resources and over-exploitation of environments, they have featured regularly. A few years of bad weather can bring on crises, and as we know weather ain't climate. The depth of post-Medieval cooling, and greatest persistence, was in the 19thCE, yet nowhere in there does it leave a significant mark.
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When CO2 and climate stabilise it will become a matter of public policy to keep it that way, even if it means digging up coal simply to burn it. |
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It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150 |
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#39 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Tee Dot
Posts: 4,257
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Definitely compelling.
I just looked up Environmental Media Services and found an interesting article written by somebody who sure doesn't like them. I'm not entirely sure that identifying people as "left" or "environmentalists" necessarily amounts to a valuable criticism, given its the content of the evidence they provide that matters. People with an axe to grind - or to put it more charitably - people who believe deeply about a given issue can still be used as a valid source of information. So we acknowledge their bias, adjust for it where necessary and evaluate what they put before us. There really is something in there for everyone in the list of contributors to the entity:
Dealing with "evidence" can be time consuming - why bother going through all the hassle when you can say "leftist/NWO/Al Gore" and have done with it?? |
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“ it has become my conviction that things mean pretty much what we want them to mean. We’ll pluck significance from the least consequential happenstance if it suits us and happily ignore the most flagrantly obvious symmetry between separate aspects of our lives if it threatens some cherished prejudice or cosily comforting belief" -Iain Banks |
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#40 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Tee Dot
Posts: 4,257
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Now Poptech, did our razor wit and mocking of your large font not chasten you at all?
Surely there must be some part of you that realizes that size doesn't matter? |
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“ it has become my conviction that things mean pretty much what we want them to mean. We’ll pluck significance from the least consequential happenstance if it suits us and happily ignore the most flagrantly obvious symmetry between separate aspects of our lives if it threatens some cherished prejudice or cosily comforting belief" -Iain Banks |
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