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Tags David Miliband, Ed Miliband, Jon Cruddas, labour party, political speculation, uk politics

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Old 30th October 2009, 03:51 PM   #1
Undesired Walrus
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Who will be the next Labour Leader?

After Brown loses the next election (yes, when, not if), who will be the next Labour Leader? Will the party take a swing to the far left like the Tories took a swing to the far right after their 97 loss (Hague, Duncan Smith)? I'm thinking Cruddas or Ed Miliband will be the far-left's choice.

Or will the party take a swing towards the Blairites once again, with David Miliband and Johnson heading up the party?

I really think it is a contest between Johnson and D.Miliband, but what do you think (Americans, please take part, we interfere in your politics too often. We don't want to feel left out)?
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Old 30th October 2009, 03:52 PM   #2
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Could. Not. Care. Less.
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Old 30th October 2009, 03:59 PM   #3
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Shame.
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Old 30th October 2009, 04:16 PM   #4
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Cared enough to post.

Anyway, I think it'd depends on the size of the defeat. If it's small, the next leader will be David Miliband. Blarite Labour is a proven success, and a small defeat could be seen as just a lack of satisfaction in the current government, rather then a vote against Labour policies. I'd prefer it if Johnson became the Labour Leader though. David Miliband just seems like a young twit. A large defeat though? Left wingers take over for at least an election, though Cruddas won't necessarily became leader. I'd expect his faction, along with the trade unions, to have far more influence over the Labour party policy.

One factor might be any settlement of the West Lothian question/Scottish Independence. If Labour suddenly lost all its Scottish MP's in Westminster, that would undoubtedly change things. In that situation, I would expect to see Miliband and Johnson take over, with the left wing of the party marginalised.
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Old 30th October 2009, 04:19 PM   #5
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Defeat is likely to clear out a lot of the Blairite wing, leaving heartland, predominantly left wing MP's.

The party will also be broke and in desperate need of funding from the unions.

It's going left.
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Old 30th October 2009, 04:23 PM   #6
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Mandelson.
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Old 30th October 2009, 04:32 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Uzzy View Post
I'd prefer it if Johnson became the Labour Leader though. David Miliband just seems like a young twit.
D.Miliband is young, but I find that he is incredibly cerebral. I recently read some of his book and saw the Blairite policies shine through in a way Middle England could latch onto. Blair got Middle England, but I feel Miliband could get a more sustained grab. Perhaps he could milk the fact that he went to a state school.

He just needs to grow some balls and come off the fence.
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Old 30th October 2009, 04:35 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by commandlinegamer View Post
Mandelson.
If Straw manages to pass the constitutional ammendment before next year's defeat.

I'm consistently amazed how popular the Dark Lord is in Labour circles.
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Old 30th October 2009, 04:35 PM   #9
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Sorry. I did not mean to be rude. I have mentioned before that in my small circle most of us feel disenfranchised. We were labour voters, you see. Now some do not intend to vote: of the rest, even those who were party workers intend to vote SNP - and again this is not because of any real nationalist sentiment: we just don't see any alternative
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Old 30th October 2009, 04:48 PM   #10
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I understand how the Iraq War caused some massive disappointment (amongst myself), but New Labour works. The minimum wage, the Stephen Lawrence inquiry, all these things would not have happened without Labour.

There was no improvement in numeracy and literacy between 1948 and the 1994. Yet, in the three years after 1997, the proportion reaching the literacy standard went up from 63 % to 75 %.

Labour needs a change of direction, a return to the way it was from '97 to the truck blockade, but the early New Labour Government (despite the protests from within the left wing of the party) has been closer to Attlee's brilliant 45-51 Government than anything else since.

We need a new Attlee.
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Old 30th October 2009, 04:49 PM   #11
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I am glad you see it that way, UW. But I am afraid I could not disagree more
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Old 30th October 2009, 04:53 PM   #12
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Did you not take pride in the fact that the The Stephen Lawrence inquiry was set up? I think that was one of New Labour's greatest achievements. One of the greatest implementations of social justice the UK has seen.
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Old 30th October 2009, 05:07 PM   #13
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Reg: All right ... all right ... but apart from better sanitation and medicine and education and irrigation and public health and roads and a freshwater system and baths and public order ... what has New Labour done for us?

Xerxes: Brought war?

Reg: Oh shut up!
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Old 30th October 2009, 05:12 PM   #14
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Since none of the likely candidates have challanged Brown it would appear they are all fairly calculating. That being the case it may well be none of them if the election after next also looks unwinable.
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Old 30th October 2009, 05:20 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Fiona View Post
Could. Not. Care. Less.
You should care. At least the UK has a Labo(u)r party. No one represents the working class in the US. No one even wants to claim to represent the working class in the US.
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Old 30th October 2009, 05:30 PM   #16
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That is precisely the problem, UNLoVed Rebel. We don't have a Labour party any more either
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Old 30th October 2009, 05:33 PM   #17
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Scotland does have (a) socialist party(ies), when it's (they're) not involved in internecine conflict about who visited the tanning salon and with whom.

Anyway my preferred choice for next Labour leader would be Caroline Flint.

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Old 30th October 2009, 05:40 PM   #18
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Yes we have some socialists, that is true. So independence first and then we may have a choice of some kind.
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Old 30th October 2009, 06:47 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Fiona View Post
That is precisely the problem, UNLoVed Rebel. We don't have a Labour party any more either
In the USA, this has happened because the unions have been so weakened and the Democrats have been bought, to a large extent, by business. Is that the same underlying dynamic on your side.
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Old 30th October 2009, 06:57 PM   #20
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Yes. We learned it from americans
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Old 30th October 2009, 07:55 PM   #21
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See. Nobody can say the only American export is Micky Ds.
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Old 30th October 2009, 09:51 PM   #22
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UW: you are in a small minority (I'm glad to say) in your belief that an increased dose of Blairism is the answer to the current problems of the Labour Party and British politics. I don't think I've seen (or heard) anyone else suggest that in the last year or so.

Completely unjustified imo to claim that the Stephen Lawrence inquiry, or minimum wage legislation, happened specifically because of Nu Labour rather than any other flavour of Labour, and I'd like to see some evidence for that assertion.

I am totally gobsmacked at the notion of Jon Cruddas and Ed Miliband representing the far left (ffs!). We are plainly not on the same planet here, and I don't know how I'd begin to have a political discussion with you. I'd be as likely to find a common wavelength with the average Tory.

btw I could hardly have been more right about Nu-Labour and Gordon Brown in May 2007:
Quote:
What is there to say about a political party, supposed voice of the labour movement, virtually all of whose representatives would (apparently willingly) participate in the disgusting Stalinist ceremony of publicly adoring the 'leader'? And what a 'leader'!

Former long-time Labour Party activist; still a socialist.


Originally Posted by geni View Post
Since none of the likely candidates have challanged Brown it would appear they are all fairly calculating. That being the case it may well be none of them if the election after next also looks unwinable.
That analysis is both too clever and too stupid for the average Nu-Labour MP. Who on earth could hope to predict what the political map will look like after a few years of Tory government ... in the depths of a recession? Bear in mind that, to a man, woman and politician these people are self-serving careerists with zero long-term political vision - they would grab any opportunity for an immediate advantage (if they were capable of any such thing). No, they didn't challenge Brown (even to the extent of not nominating him) because ... they stuffed up!


Originally Posted by UNLoVedRebel View Post
You should care. At least the UK has a Labo(u)r party. No one represents the working class in the US. No one even wants to claim to represent the working class in the US.
Originally Posted by Fiona View Post
That is precisely the problem, UNLoVed Rebel. We don't have a Labour party any more either
I think that's putting it a bit strongly. We can certainly expect serious political change in a severe recession, presided over by a Tory government (which is going to be much more horrible than most of us want to think at the moment). I don't completely rule out the possibility that the Labour Party can regain its historic role as the political leadership and representation of the working class, the unemployed, poor, ill and old people. My son, who is a 'far left' Labour Party activist, promotes this line. But it will have to prove itself in no uncertain terms before I get sucked in again.
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Old 31st October 2009, 03:28 AM   #23
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Hmm.. I seem to have been slightly drunk last night. Why do I rant about politics when I am so?
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Old 31st October 2009, 04:37 AM   #24
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Since (I suspect) Labour will be out of power for at least two terms, it hardly matters.
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Old 31st October 2009, 06:24 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
That analysis is both too clever and too stupid for the average Nu-Labour MP. Who on earth could hope to predict what the political map will look like after a few years of Tory government ... in the depths of a recession? Bear in mind that, to a man, woman and politician these people are self-serving careerists with zero long-term political vision - they would grab any opportunity for an immediate advantage (if they were capable of any such thing). No, they didn't challenge Brown (even to the extent of not nominating him) because ... they stuffed up!
Not worried about the average MP. Just the likely leadership contenders. They've also got the recent example of IDS to look to to see that a weak leader can be removed if things start to look up.
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Old 31st October 2009, 06:39 AM   #26
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Who will be the next Labour Leader?

Preg Nancy (MP from Manchester)
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Old 1st November 2009, 04:47 PM   #27
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Hmm, with David Miliband seemingly abandoning ship to Europe, and Alan Johnson deciding that political image is more important then scientific evidence, I wonder if this changes things. Johnson certainly seems less competent to be Labour Leader now.
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Old 4th November 2009, 07:41 AM   #28
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After the Government's (headed up by Johnson) recent idiocy over Cannibas reclassification, there are slim pickings left.
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Old 4th November 2009, 07:48 AM   #29
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I've no idea, not being active in politics as I used to be I've not really seen anyone that I think has required vision and bloodymindness that is required to be a modern part leader. Perhaps there is someone out there - but if so they need to start working on their public image and start getting themselves noticed.
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Old 4th November 2009, 09:46 AM   #30
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Rushanara Ali- PPC for Bethnal Green and Bow. Great fan.
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Old 4th November 2009, 10:09 AM   #31
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If John Smith were alive.

Old article, worthy points. People forget that Smith helped found New Labour.
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Old 4th November 2009, 11:16 AM   #32
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Neither Cook nor Smith were "new" labour.
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Old 4th November 2009, 11:23 AM   #33
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It started to move that way from Kinnock. Remember that it was Smith who got rid of the Trade Union block vote.
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Old 4th November 2009, 12:05 PM   #34
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What do you mean by "that way"?
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Old 4th November 2009, 12:13 PM   #35
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double
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Old 4th November 2009, 12:17 PM   #36
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Towards the a party more rooted in Gaitskellite policies. Tony Benn was very vocal in his opposition to the way Smith was taking the party.

Remember that it was Smith that brought Brown and Blair up through the ranks, making them his acolytes.
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Old 4th November 2009, 12:35 PM   #37
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Which Gaitskellite policies ?
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