H1N1 Pandemic - Has it peaked?

Segnosaur · 19th November 2009, 01:44 PM

I've read a few recent news reports that suggested that the H1N1 pandemic has 'peaked' in much of the world (including North America). Here where I live, the government has already started to disband emergency flu clinics.

I thought this was surprising... flu season doesn't even really start until November, and the vaccine may not have been around long enough to confer widespread herd immunity.

Anyone know what's going on here? Has the pandemic actually peaked for a lot of countries around the world? Or are the reports taking things out of context? Or is this just a temporary lull before the storm? Do we run the risk of other strains of the flu becoming predominant now?

(Not that I'm trying to discourage vaccination or anything... even if the problem has 'peaked', there will still be a lot of sick people over the next few months. Problem is, we may end up hearing from a lot of anti-vaxers how vaccination isn't "necessary" now.)

From: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article
More than 6,250 people have died in the swine flu pandemic, World Health Organisation data showed Friday, as the global death rate appeared to slow.... The UN health agency said the influenza season showed signs of peaking in North America, but was intensifying across much of Europe and Central and Eastern Asia

(edited to add: I skimmed over the other threads regarding H1N1, but didn't notice much discussion about this particular topic. Forgive me if I overlooked something.)

portlandatheist · 19th November 2009, 01:57 PM

It has clearly peaked and going into decline based on google's flu trends:
http://www.google.org/flutrends/us/
But there is always the possibility of a second peak later on in the season. Here in Oregon, the peak of flu season is usually in February so we may (or may not) have a second peak later on.

BenBurch · 19th November 2009, 02:09 PM

Taken a slight dip, this does not mean it has peaked! We are VERY early in the flu season.

From; http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

portlandatheist · 19th November 2009, 02:33 PM

Originally Posted by BenBurch

Taken a slight dip, this does not mean it has peaked! We are VERY early in the flu season.

From; http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

You may very well be right and it is still very early in the season. I just wanted to point out that the google trends data is ahead by a couple of weeks of CDC data although it is much less accurate. Assuming Google trends is correct, flu activity has also declined substantially since November 7th, the last date of the graph that you show.

Segnosaur · 19th November 2009, 02:41 PM

Originally Posted by portlandatheist

Quote:

Taken a slight dip, this does not mean it has peaked! We are VERY early in the flu season.

You may very well be right and it is still very early in the season. I just wanted to point out that the google trends data is ahead by a couple of weeks of CDC data although it is much less accurate. Assuming Google trends is correct, flu activity has also declined substantially since November 7th, the last date of the graph that you show.

The other thing to remember is what the CDC graph is showing us... rather than being an indicator of actual number of flu cases, its a graph for "% of visits for influenza-like visits". Not sure of exactly how this is measured, but from the looks of it, that graph can be affected by the appearance of other illnesses.

Professor Yaffle · 19th November 2009, 03:32 PM

Dunno about anywhere else, but it has just hit my town and lots of people I know have just come down with it.

BenBurch · 19th November 2009, 03:38 PM

Originally Posted by portlandatheist

You may very well be right and it is still very early in the season. I just wanted to point out that the google trends data is ahead by a couple of weeks of CDC data although it is much less accurate. Assuming Google trends is correct, flu activity has also declined substantially since November 7th, the last date of the graph that you show.

Google does not measure illness, but public interest in it.

portlandatheist · 19th November 2009, 03:49 PM

Originally Posted by BenBurch

Google does not measure illness, but public interest in it.

You may want to check this Nature article out.

Quote:

...
Here we present a method of analysing large numbers of Google search queries to track influenza-like illness in a population. Because the relative frequency of certain queries is highly correlated with the percentage of physician visits in which a patient presents with influenza-like symptoms, we can accurately estimate the current level of weekly influenza activity in each region of the United States, with a reporting lag of about one day.

They actually have an impressive signal to noise ratio, otherwise we would have seen a strong signal in the early spring when interest(noise) in flu was at an all time peak with the news of the new strain but flu trends was surprisingly steady as she goes.

Segnosaur · 19th November 2009, 03:51 PM

Originally Posted by BenBurch

Quote:

You may very well be right and it is still very early in the season. I just wanted to point out that the google trends data is ahead by a couple of weeks of CDC data although it is much less accurate. Assuming Google trends is correct, flu activity has also declined substantially since November 7th, the last date of the graph that you show.

Google does not measure illness, but public interest in it.

You're right. But, if you look at the "about" page for the google flutrends site, its almost creepy the way google search trends line up with actual numbers of flu cases in previous years.

Still, even if you discount google, there are still some experts (heck, even at the WHO) who have said that the pandemic has "peaked".

jadey · 19th November 2009, 06:22 PM

It is my understanding that H1N1 does not necessarily coincide with normal flu season because it survives in warm weather, whereas the normal flus don't. I've heard that we're still in for the normal flu season which is just starting (in the US).

Eos of the Eons · 19th November 2009, 06:34 PM

eh? Seasonal flu just comes around during winter, it doesn't "die" during the warm seaso, it fizzles out once it is passed around and then either people die, get vaccinated, or are just immune after catching it. Doesn't Australia get the flu going through there at the same time it does for North America, or is there flu season reversed?

Then I found this:
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/99228.php

Their coating may explain why the flu spreads more easily in colder temperatures, but what about my question above? Plus, it never gets that warm where I live. Plus, the H1N1 flu spread around wayyyy before winter came along, and it hasn't gotten that cold yet... no snow here!

Segnosaur · 19th November 2009, 08:50 PM

Originally Posted by Eos of the Eons

eh? Seasonal flu just comes around during winter, it doesn't "die" during the warm seaso, it fizzles out once it is passed around and then either people die, get vaccinated, or are just immune after catching it. Doesn't Australia get the flu going through there at the same time it does for North America, or is there flu season reversed?

Actually, yes, their flu season is reversed. They had theirs earlier this year, and they ended up with a lot less problems than they were originally expecting.

http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking...ry_422437.html

Quote:

Then I found this:
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/99228.php

Their coating may explain why the flu spreads more easily in colder temperatures, but what about my question above? Plus, it never gets that warm where I live.

Interesting idea. Although I wonder, if it is true that the temperature affects the coating of a flu virus, then why does the flu affect places like Mexico, where temperatures often get over 20 degrees, even in winter. (If it is true, then someone should be able to find that countries closer to the equator have a shorter flu season.)

jadey · 20th November 2009, 07:10 AM

Seasonal Flu Starts in Asia and Migrates Throughout World

According to this, the seasonal flus all start in east/southeast Asia and follow a somewhat predicatable pattern to finally die in South America.

However, swine flu seems to have originated from Mexico and is spreading from there. So, even if your area has been hit by swine flu, you still get to enjoy the regular seasonal flu. Aren't we lucky

Nosi · 20th November 2009, 07:44 AM

The Ukraine would like a word with anyone saying the pandemic is over!

ve2vfd · 20th November 2009, 08:44 AM

Well, hopefully the prevention measures like mass vaccination and enhanced hygiene (like hand disinfection) will curb the spreading of this epidemic substantially.

Anecdotally I can tell you right now more than half the EMS calls we run are for severe H1N1 related symptoms (and let me tell you some folks are in BAD shape!)

Pat

BenBurch · 20th November 2009, 08:48 AM

It is not surprising for there to be a dip in data like this, part of it has to do with contagion pools; they stabilize when school has been in session for a few weeks.

I expect the mixing of people that occurs with the holidays to bring about another LARGE expansion of the rate of infection.

People not only travel more, but feel compelled to travel even if they do not feel well. And people will go out and do holiday shopping even if they are sick.

And THEN, all the children come back from break having been exposed to many more people not currently in their contagion pool, and it will get really bad.

BenBurch · 20th November 2009, 08:49 AM

P.S. I think the Mall Santa should be banned this year.

ve2vfd · 20th November 2009, 08:54 AM

Maybe we could have the mall santas in hazmat cocoon suits and disinfect him between each child

Pat

Capsid · 20th November 2009, 09:42 AM

Just got my first dose, next one in 3 weeks time. The GP's surgery was full.

It was Pandemrix which is the multi-dose vial, so just had some thiomersal and squalene.

portlandatheist · 20th November 2009, 11:08 AM

Originally Posted by Capsid

Just got my first dose, next one in 3 weeks time. The GP's surgery was full.

It was Pandemrix which is the multi-dose vial, so just had some thiomersal and squalene.

Sweet! I'm anxiously awaiting my opportunity to get my thiomersal and squalene.

jadey · 20th November 2009, 11:35 AM

Originally Posted by portlandatheist

Sweet! I'm anxiously awaiting my opportunity to get my thiomersal and squalene.

Sprinkle that over a little ice cream with Baileys .... mmmmm ... mmmmm

ve2vfd · 20th November 2009, 12:27 PM

Don't forget a can or two of tuna to get your daily fix of evil mercury

Pat

BenBurch · 20th November 2009, 01:05 PM

Originally Posted by ve2vfd

Don't forget a can or two of tuna to get your daily fix of evil mercury

Pat

I prefer yellowfin tuna sushi.

Pass the Wasabi!

19th November 2009, 01:44 PM	#1
Segnosaur Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 3,918	H1N1 Pandemic - Has it peaked? I've read a few recent news reports that suggested that the H1N1 pandemic has 'peaked' in much of the world (including North America). Here where I live, the government has already started to disband emergency flu clinics. I thought this was surprising... flu season doesn't even really start until November, and the vaccine may not have been around long enough to confer widespread herd immunity. Anyone know what's going on here? Has the pandemic actually peaked for a lot of countries around the world? Or are the reports taking things out of context? Or is this just a temporary lull before the storm? Do we run the risk of other strains of the flu becoming predominant now? (Not that I'm trying to discourage vaccination or anything... even if the problem has 'peaked', there will still be a lot of sick people over the next few months. Problem is, we may end up hearing from a lot of anti-vaxers how vaccination isn't "necessary" now.) From: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article More than 6,250 people have died in the swine flu pandemic, World Health Organisation data showed Friday, as the global death rate appeared to slow.... The UN health agency said the influenza season showed signs of peaking in North America, but was intensifying across much of Europe and Central and Eastern Asia (edited to add: I skimmed over the other threads regarding H1N1, but didn't notice much discussion about this particular topic. Forgive me if I overlooked something.)
Segnosaur Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 3,918	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I cheered when then the WTC came down. - UndercoverElephant (a.k.a. JustGeoff) I cheer Bin Laden... - JustGeoff (a.k.a. UndercoverElephant) Bin Laden delivered justice - JustGeoff (a.k.a. UndercoverElephant) Men shop for lingerie the way kids shop for breakfast cereal... they will buy something they know nothing about, just to get the prize inside. - Jeff Foxworthy Last edited by Segnosaur; 19th November 2009 at 01:45 PM.

19th November 2009, 02:41 PM	#5
Segnosaur Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 3,918	Originally Posted by portlandatheist Quote: Taken a slight dip, this does not mean it has peaked! We are VERY early in the flu season. You may very well be right and it is still very early in the season. I just wanted to point out that the google trends data is ahead by a couple of weeks of CDC data although it is much less accurate. Assuming Google trends is correct, flu activity has also declined substantially since November 7th, the last date of the graph that you show. The other thing to remember is what the CDC graph is showing us... rather than being an indicator of actual number of flu cases, its a graph for "% of visits for influenza-like visits". Not sure of exactly how this is measured, but from the looks of it, that graph can be affected by the appearance of other illnesses.
Segnosaur Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 3,918	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I cheered when then the WTC came down. - UndercoverElephant (a.k.a. JustGeoff) I cheer Bin Laden... - JustGeoff (a.k.a. UndercoverElephant) Bin Laden delivered justice - JustGeoff (a.k.a. UndercoverElephant) Men shop for lingerie the way kids shop for breakfast cereal... they will buy something they know nothing about, just to get the prize inside. - Jeff Foxworthy

19th November 2009, 03:32 PM	#6
Professor Yaffle Butterbeans and Breadcrumbs Moderator Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Emily's shop Posts: 7,131	Dunno about anywhere else, but it has just hit my town and lots of people I know have just come down with it.
	__________________ I think you'll find it's a little bit more complicated than that.

19th November 2009, 03:38 PM	#7
BenBurch Gatekeeper of The Left Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: The Universe 35.2 ms ahead of this one. Posts: 13,782	Originally Posted by portlandatheist You may very well be right and it is still very early in the season. I just wanted to point out that the google trends data is ahead by a couple of weeks of CDC data although it is much less accurate. Assuming Google trends is correct, flu activity has also declined substantially since November 7th, the last date of the graph that you show. Google does not measure illness, but public interest in it.
	__________________ A Liberal Dose of Talk Dog is my co-pilot. GENERATION 7: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

19th November 2009, 03:51 PM	#9
Segnosaur Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 3,918	Originally Posted by BenBurch Quote: You may very well be right and it is still very early in the season. I just wanted to point out that the google trends data is ahead by a couple of weeks of CDC data although it is much less accurate. Assuming Google trends is correct, flu activity has also declined substantially since November 7th, the last date of the graph that you show. Google does not measure illness, but public interest in it. You're right. But, if you look at the "about" page for the google flutrends site, its almost creepy the way google search trends line up with actual numbers of flu cases in previous years. Still, even if you discount google, there are still some experts (heck, even at the WHO) who have said that the pandemic has "peaked".
Segnosaur Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 3,918	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I cheered when then the WTC came down. - UndercoverElephant (a.k.a. JustGeoff) I cheer Bin Laden... - JustGeoff (a.k.a. UndercoverElephant) Bin Laden delivered justice - JustGeoff (a.k.a. UndercoverElephant) Men shop for lingerie the way kids shop for breakfast cereal... they will buy something they know nothing about, just to get the prize inside. - Jeff Foxworthy

19th November 2009, 01:57 PM	#2
portlandatheist Graduate Poster Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,162	It has clearly peaked and going into decline based on google's flu trends: http://www.google.org/flutrends/us/ But there is always the possibility of a second peak later on in the season. Here in Oregon, the peak of flu season is usually in February so we may (or may not) have a second peak later on.

19th November 2009, 02:33 PM	#4
portlandatheist Graduate Poster Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,162	Originally Posted by BenBurch Taken a slight dip, this does not mean it has peaked! We are VERY early in the flu season. From; http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ You may very well be right and it is still very early in the season. I just wanted to point out that the google trends data is ahead by a couple of weeks of CDC data although it is much less accurate. Assuming Google trends is correct, flu activity has also declined substantially since November 7th, the last date of the graph that you show.

19th November 2009, 03:49 PM	#8
portlandatheist Graduate Poster Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,162	Originally Posted by BenBurch Google does not measure illness, but public interest in it. You may want to check this Nature article out. Quote: ... Here we present a method of analysing large numbers of Google search queries to track influenza-like illness in a population. Because the relative frequency of certain queries is highly correlated with the percentage of physician visits in which a patient presents with influenza-like symptoms, we can accurately estimate the current level of weekly influenza activity in each region of the United States, with a reporting lag of about one day. They actually have an impressive signal to noise ratio, otherwise we would have seen a strong signal in the early spring when interest(noise) in flu was at an all time peak with the news of the new strain but flu trends was surprisingly steady as she goes.

19th November 2009, 06:22 PM	#10
jadey Muse Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Merry Land Posts: 590	It is my understanding that H1N1 does not necessarily coincide with normal flu season because it survives in warm weather, whereas the normal flus don't. I've heard that we're still in for the normal flu season which is just starting (in the US).

19th November 2009, 06:34 PM	#11
Eos of the Eons Mad Scientist Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Alberta Posts: 13,253	eh? Seasonal flu just comes around during winter, it doesn't "die" during the warm seaso, it fizzles out once it is passed around and then either people die, get vaccinated, or are just immune after catching it. Doesn't Australia get the flu going through there at the same time it does for North America, or is there flu season reversed? Then I found this: http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/99228.php Their coating may explain why the flu spreads more easily in colder temperatures, but what about my question above? Plus, it never gets that warm where I live. Plus, the H1N1 flu spread around wayyyy before winter came along, and it hasn't gotten that cold yet... no snow here!
	__________________ Motion affecting a measuring device does not affect what is actually being measured, except to inaccurately measure it. the immaterial world doesn't matter, cause it ain't matter-Jeff Corey my karma ran over my dogma-vbloke The Lateral Truth: An Apostate's Bible Stories by Rebecca Bradley, read it! Last edited by Eos of the Eons; 19th November 2009 at 06:54 PM.

19th November 2009, 08:50 PM	#12
Segnosaur Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 3,918	Originally Posted by Eos of the Eons eh? Seasonal flu just comes around during winter, it doesn't "die" during the warm seaso, it fizzles out once it is passed around and then either people die, get vaccinated, or are just immune after catching it. Doesn't Australia get the flu going through there at the same time it does for North America, or is there flu season reversed? Actually, yes, their flu season is reversed. They had theirs earlier this year, and they ended up with a lot less problems than they were originally expecting. http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking...ry_422437.html Quote: Then I found this: http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/99228.php Their coating may explain why the flu spreads more easily in colder temperatures, but what about my question above? Plus, it never gets that warm where I live. Interesting idea. Although I wonder, if it is true that the temperature affects the coating of a flu virus, then why does the flu affect places like Mexico, where temperatures often get over 20 degrees, even in winter. (If it is true, then someone should be able to find that countries closer to the equator have a shorter flu season.)
Segnosaur Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 3,918	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I cheered when then the WTC came down. - UndercoverElephant (a.k.a. JustGeoff) I cheer Bin Laden... - JustGeoff (a.k.a. UndercoverElephant) Bin Laden delivered justice - JustGeoff (a.k.a. UndercoverElephant) Men shop for lingerie the way kids shop for breakfast cereal... they will buy something they know nothing about, just to get the prize inside. - Jeff Foxworthy

20th November 2009, 07:10 AM	#13
jadey Muse Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Merry Land Posts: 590	Seasonal Flu Starts in Asia and Migrates Throughout World According to this, the seasonal flus all start in east/southeast Asia and follow a somewhat predicatable pattern to finally die in South America. However, swine flu seems to have originated from Mexico and is spreading from there. So, even if your area has been hit by swine flu, you still get to enjoy the regular seasonal flu. Aren't we lucky

20th November 2009, 07:44 AM	#14
Nosi Muse Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 679	The Ukraine would like a word with anyone saying the pandemic is over!
Nosi Muse Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 679

20th November 2009, 08:44 AM	#15
ve2vfd Critical Thinker Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Montreal, Canada Posts: 319	Well, hopefully the prevention measures like mass vaccination and enhanced hygiene (like hand disinfection) will curb the spreading of this epidemic substantially. Anecdotally I can tell you right now more than half the EMS calls we run are for severe H1N1 related symptoms (and let me tell you some folks are in BAD shape!) Pat

20th November 2009, 08:48 AM	#16
BenBurch Gatekeeper of The Left Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: The Universe 35.2 ms ahead of this one. Posts: 13,782	It is not surprising for there to be a dip in data like this, part of it has to do with contagion pools; they stabilize when school has been in session for a few weeks. I expect the mixing of people that occurs with the holidays to bring about another LARGE expansion of the rate of infection. People not only travel more, but feel compelled to travel even if they do not feel well. And people will go out and do holiday shopping even if they are sick. And THEN, all the children come back from break having been exposed to many more people not currently in their contagion pool, and it will get really bad.
	__________________ A Liberal Dose of Talk Dog is my co-pilot. GENERATION 7: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

20th November 2009, 08:49 AM	#17
BenBurch Gatekeeper of The Left Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: The Universe 35.2 ms ahead of this one. Posts: 13,782	P.S. I think the Mall Santa should be banned this year.
	__________________ A Liberal Dose of Talk Dog is my co-pilot. GENERATION 7: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

20th November 2009, 08:54 AM	#18
ve2vfd Critical Thinker Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Montreal, Canada Posts: 319	Maybe we could have the mall santas in hazmat cocoon suits and disinfect him between each child Pat

20th November 2009, 09:42 AM	#19
Capsid Graduate Poster Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 1,127	Just got my first dose, next one in 3 weeks time. The GP's surgery was full. It was Pandemrix which is the multi-dose vial, so just had some thiomersal and squalene.
Capsid Graduate Poster Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 1,127

20th November 2009, 11:08 AM	#20
portlandatheist Graduate Poster Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,162	Originally Posted by Capsid Just got my first dose, next one in 3 weeks time. The GP's surgery was full. It was Pandemrix which is the multi-dose vial, so just had some thiomersal and squalene. Sweet! I'm anxiously awaiting my opportunity to get my thiomersal and squalene.

20th November 2009, 11:35 AM	#21
jadey Muse Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Merry Land Posts: 590	Originally Posted by portlandatheist Sweet! I'm anxiously awaiting my opportunity to get my thiomersal and squalene. Sprinkle that over a little ice cream with Baileys .... mmmmm ... mmmmm

20th November 2009, 12:27 PM	#22
ve2vfd Critical Thinker Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Montreal, Canada Posts: 319	Don't forget a can or two of tuna to get your daily fix of evil mercury Pat

20th November 2009, 01:05 PM	#23
BenBurch Gatekeeper of The Left Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: The Universe 35.2 ms ahead of this one. Posts: 13,782	Originally Posted by ve2vfd Don't forget a can or two of tuna to get your daily fix of evil mercury Pat I prefer yellowfin tuna sushi. Pass the Wasabi!
	__________________ A Liberal Dose of Talk Dog is my co-pilot. GENERATION 7: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.