What, Exactly, has AGW Succesfully Predicted?

Malerin · 18th February 2010, 10:25 PM

A good theory makes testable predictions, correct? I want to get a list going of the successful predictions made by the AGW hypothesis, because there are two pieces of data AGW completely failed to predict: the insignificant warming from 1995-present, and the insignificant cooling from 2002-present.

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut.../to:2009/trend
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut.../to:2009/trend

cornsail · 18th February 2010, 10:30 PM

I've explained to you why you're misinterpreting statistical significance like 4 times, but you just seem to ignore it every time.

Malerin · 18th February 2010, 10:34 PM

Originally Posted by cornsail

I've explained to you why you're misinterpreting statistical significance like 4 times, but you just seem to ignore it every time.

Ok, forget about that. List the succesful predictions AGW has made then.

cornsail · 18th February 2010, 11:02 PM

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, increasing global mean temperature, cooling in the stratosphere, ice loss...

Mikemcc · 18th February 2010, 11:22 PM

Originally Posted by Malerin

A good theory makes testable predictions, correct? I want to get a list going of the successful predictions made by the AGW hypothesis, because there are two pieces of data AGW completely failed to predict: the insignificant warming from 1995-present, and the insignificant cooling from 2002-present.

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut.../to:2009/trend
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut.../to:2009/trend

How can the 'theories' have made testable predictions over such a small timeline. When do you think the models were firm enough to make such predictions? Why do you think the IPCC is now onto it's 4th report. What makes you think that the present variation is any different from any of the other drops that occurred in the past?

Megalodon · 19th February 2010, 04:49 AM

Originally Posted by Malerin

A good theory makes testable predictions, correct? I want to get a list going of the successful predictions made by the AGW hypothesis, because there are two pieces of data AGW completely failed to predict: the insignificant warming from 1995-present, and the insignificant cooling from 2002-present.

drkitten · 19th February 2010, 09:09 AM

Originally Posted by Malerin

Ok, forget about that. List the succesful predictions AGW has made then.

Er, the opening of the Northwest Passage?

That's pretty blatant, I should think.

MattusMaximus · 19th February 2010, 09:24 AM

Ahem, you asked for successful predictions?...

http://skepticalscience.com/chaos-th...-predicted.htm

and, more specifically...

http://www.skepticalscience.com/weat...redictions.htm

Have fun reading

Wowbagger · 19th February 2010, 06:21 PM

What can AGW Denial predict?

That there won't be a green house effect?
The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will have no significant impact on climate, at all?!

Malerin · 19th February 2010, 09:20 PM

Originally Posted by MattusMaximus

Ahem, you asked for successful predictions?...

http://skepticalscience.com/chaos-th...-predicted.htm

and, more specifically...

http://www.skepticalscience.com/weat...redictions.htm

Have fun reading

Thanks. Hansen's prediction seems very close. Has anyone done a metastudy of predictions?

18th February 2010, 10:25 PM	#1
Malerin Banned Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,341	What, Exactly, has AGW Succesfully Predicted? A good theory makes testable predictions, correct? I want to get a list going of the successful predictions made by the AGW hypothesis, because there are two pieces of data AGW completely failed to predict: the insignificant warming from 1995-present, and the insignificant cooling from 2002-present. http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut.../to:2009/trend http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut.../to:2009/trend
Malerin Banned Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,341

18th February 2010, 10:34 PM	#3
Malerin Banned Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,341	Originally Posted by cornsail I've explained to you why you're misinterpreting statistical significance like 4 times, but you just seem to ignore it every time. Ok, forget about that. List the succesful predictions AGW has made then.
Malerin Banned Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,341

18th February 2010, 11:22 PM	#5
Mikemcc Muse Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 957	Originally Posted by Malerin A good theory makes testable predictions, correct? I want to get a list going of the successful predictions made by the AGW hypothesis, because there are two pieces of data AGW completely failed to predict: the insignificant warming from 1995-present, and the insignificant cooling from 2002-present. http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut.../to:2009/trend http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut.../to:2009/trend How can the 'theories' have made testable predictions over such a small timeline. When do you think the models were firm enough to make such predictions? Why do you think the IPCC is now onto it's 4th report. What makes you think that the present variation is any different from any of the other drops that occurred in the past?
Mikemcc Muse Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 957

19th February 2010, 04:49 AM	#6
Megalodon Master Poster Join Date: Nov 2001 Posts: 2,522	Originally Posted by Malerin A good theory makes testable predictions, correct? I want to get a list going of the successful predictions made by the AGW hypothesis, because there are two pieces of data AGW completely failed to predict: the insignificant warming from 1995-present, and the insignificant cooling from 2002-present.
Megalodon Master Poster Join Date: Nov 2001 Posts: 2,522	__________________ Stupid is depressing...

19th February 2010, 09:24 AM	#8
MattusMaximus Intellectual Gladiator Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In the midst of a vast, beautiful & uncaring universe Posts: 14,175	Ahem, you asked for successful predictions?... http://skepticalscience.com/chaos-th...-predicted.htm and, more specifically... http://www.skepticalscience.com/weat...redictions.htm Have fun reading
	__________________ Visit my blog: The Skeptical Teacher The Times They Are A-Changin'

18th February 2010, 10:30 PM	#2
cornsail Master Poster Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: ohio Posts: 2,693	I've explained to you why you're misinterpreting statistical significance like 4 times, but you just seem to ignore it every time.

18th February 2010, 11:02 PM	#4
cornsail Master Poster Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: ohio Posts: 2,693	Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, increasing global mean temperature, cooling in the stratosphere, ice loss...

19th February 2010, 09:09 AM	#7
drkitten Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Wits' End Posts: 21,647	Originally Posted by Malerin Ok, forget about that. List the succesful predictions AGW has made then. Er, the opening of the Northwest Passage? That's pretty blatant, I should think.

19th February 2010, 06:21 PM	#9
Wowbagger The Infinitely Prolonged Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Westchester County, NY (when not in space) Posts: 13,531	What can AGW Denial predict? That there won't be a green house effect? The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will have no significant impact on climate, at all?!
	__________________ WARNING: Phrases in this post may sound meaner than they were intended to be. SkeptiCamp NYC: http://www.skepticampnyc.org/ An open conference on science and skepticism, where *you* could be a presenter! By the way, my first name is NOT Bowerick!!!!

19th February 2010, 09:20 PM	#10
Malerin Banned Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,341	Originally Posted by MattusMaximus Ahem, you asked for successful predictions?... http://skepticalscience.com/chaos-th...-predicted.htm and, more specifically... http://www.skepticalscience.com/weat...redictions.htm Have fun reading Thanks. Hansen's prediction seems very close. Has anyone done a metastudy of predictions?
Malerin Banned Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,341