So where are the cuts going to be.

geni · 27th April 2010, 03:53 PM

Well for the most part the politicians are not going to tell us so lets try some educated guessing.

Further education is going to get hammered. No one is claiming it is protecteded and fewer problems are caused cutting BTECs and NVQs compared to increasing class sizes. A levels may get some degree of protection but no much.

Higher education is likely to see cuts with politicians talking about cutting down on (cheap) "micky mouse" degrees while universities quietly cut (expensive) science and engineering degrees

In terms of defence the navy will not get their carriers unless tha falklands kicks off again.

Art funding will be cut. Science funding harder to say

No one appears to have mentioned the fire brigade so expect cuts there.

Other suggestions?

Rolfe · 27th April 2010, 04:14 PM

I don't suppose we could just nix Trident? Too easy?

Rolfe.

geni · 27th April 2010, 04:15 PM

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I don't suppose we could just nix Trident? Too easy?

Rolfe.

Doesn't count. The lib dems admit they would like to do that.

Rolfe · 27th April 2010, 04:39 PM

Well, they said something including the word Trident, but it was nowhere near a complete cut.

Why doesn't it count? Because very few people would be at all disadvantaged?

Rolfe.

geni · 27th April 2010, 05:48 PM

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Well, they said something including the word Trident, but it was nowhere near a complete cut.

Why doesn't it count? Because very few people would be at all disadvantaged?

Rolfe.

Because if you mean cutting trident rather than it's replacement that would probably cost money since you would have all the costs of shutting it down ahead of time and it doesn't cost that much to keep running.

Worm · 28th April 2010, 05:48 AM

Lib Dems just wanted Trident included in the upcoming review - which it currently isn't.

In terms of cuts, as usual they'll target the Civil Service and simply demand 5% savings across the board from every department, same in local government.

Darat · 28th April 2010, 06:06 AM

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I don't suppose we could just nix Trident? Too easy?

Rolfe.

The official figures puts the cost of the replacement for Trident at £20 billion, the estimates of those against it put it at £100 billion. The 100 billion figure appears to have come from Greenpeace and as far as I am aware the 100 billion is an estimate for the lifetime costs of the replacement which is 30 years. So in the worse case (that the £100 billion had to be started to be paid for now) it would be £3.33 billion a year. So scrapping the replacement would not really make much of a dent in even the current defence budget, scrapping the current Trident "instantly" - ignoring any costs incurred in decommissioning or penalties for contracts already signed would save (from what I've found from a quick search) would save somewhere in the region of £1 to £2 billion a year. So scrapping Trident is not going to help much given the scale of cuts we apparently "need".

zooterkin · 28th April 2010, 06:16 AM

The converse to cuts is increasing taxes; I think all the main parties have avoided making any comment about VAT remaining at current levels, for example.

Darat · 28th April 2010, 06:19 AM

Labour ruled it out the other day - they are saying that since the Tories don't want the increase in NI to go ahead they will have to increase VAT. Certainly our VAT rate is lower than quite a few other EU countries, including France and Germany.

funk de fino · 28th April 2010, 06:41 AM

Public sector pay cuts, pay freezes and job losses.

geni · 28th April 2010, 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by funk de fino

Public sector pay cuts, pay freezes and job losses.

I thought the tories had already gone for the pay freeze option and the lib dems for job loses.

Jaggy Bunnet · 28th April 2010, 01:56 PM

All of the above and more. Public sector pensions will get hit (and that won't make a dent in the deficit at all because they don't bother to count the cost of that).

Pay freezes, job cuts, tax rises across the board. The increase in spending was never sustainable anyway (unless you are willing to put taxes up a lot which nobody appears to be), sustaining it against the context of paying for a recession is going to make a very tough spending round a whole lot worse.

Debaser · 28th April 2010, 02:05 PM

The road building budget. Probably not mourned by the green tinged members of the community, but civil engineering has already been hit quite badly, and there's been an ever present cry of 'skills shortage' throughout my career. Let's hope physical infrastructure is a thing of the past and personal jet-packs will come to our aid.

Debaser · 28th April 2010, 02:08 PM

By the way, as a private sector employee this is the second year of a pay freeze in my company. Rolling reviews are planned each quarter but I'm not holding my breath.

geni · 28th April 2010, 02:13 PM

Originally Posted by Debaser

The road building budget.

I thought labour had already admitted to that one?

andyandy · 28th April 2010, 02:15 PM

Originally Posted by geni

Well for the most part the politicians are not going to tell us so lets try some educated guessing.

Further education is going to get hammered. No one is claiming it is protecteded and fewer problems are caused cutting BTECs and NVQs compared to increasing class sizes. A levels may get some degree of protection but no much.

Higher education is likely to see cuts with politicians talking about cutting down on (cheap) "micky mouse" degrees while universities quietly cut (expensive) science and engineering degrees

In terms of defence the navy will not get their carriers unless tha falklands kicks off again.

Art funding will be cut. Science funding harder to say

No one appears to have mentioned the fire brigade so expect cuts there.

Other suggestions?

Local councils will get absolutely hammered.

andyandy · 28th April 2010, 02:23 PM

The newsnight analysis of the IFS report was that both labour and the tories needed to find about £50billion over the course of the parliament - and based on their prior commitments (eg the pledge to maintain NHS spending etc), labour needed to be looking for savings in every £1 in £7 in areas not ringfenced....

whilst the tories was a staggering £1 in every £4....

Labour will massively hike taxes, the tories will slash and burn....

it'll be a fun decade. Well done Broon.

Debaser · 28th April 2010, 02:25 PM

Originally Posted by geni

I thought labour had already admitted to that one?

Well the HA are still progressing a number of fairly major schemes so either the message hasn't got through or they're living in hope.

geni · 28th April 2010, 02:33 PM

Originally Posted by andyandy

The newsnight analysis of the IFS report was that both labour and the tories needed to find about £50billion over the course of the parliament - and based on their prior commitments (eg the pledge to maintain NHS spending etc), labour needed to be looking for savings in every £1 in £7 in areas not ringfenced....

whilst the tories was a staggering £1 in every £4....

I'm expecting to see a lot of playing around what exactly falls withing the ring fences. Defintion of NHS could get interesting.

andyandy · 29th April 2010, 10:02 AM

Originally Posted by geni

I'm expecting to see a lot of playing around what exactly falls withing the ring fences. Defintion of NHS could get interesting.

true....i think these will be redefined in terms of "frontline" services - ie the bit that the middle classes see.....

27th April 2010, 03:53 PM	#1
geni Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: UK Posts: 26,578	So where are the cuts going to be. Well for the most part the politicians are not going to tell us so lets try some educated guessing. Further education is going to get hammered. No one is claiming it is protecteded and fewer problems are caused cutting BTECs and NVQs compared to increasing class sizes. A levels may get some degree of protection but no much. Higher education is likely to see cuts with politicians talking about cutting down on (cheap) "micky mouse" degrees while universities quietly cut (expensive) science and engineering degrees In terms of defence the navy will not get their carriers unless tha falklands kicks off again. Art funding will be cut. Science funding harder to say No one appears to have mentioned the fire brigade so expect cuts there. Other suggestions?

27th April 2010, 04:14 PM	#2
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 34,340	I don't suppose we could just nix Trident? Too easy? Rolfe.
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

27th April 2010, 04:39 PM	#4
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 34,340	Well, they said something including the word Trident, but it was nowhere near a complete cut. Why doesn't it count? Because very few people would be at all disadvantaged? Rolfe.
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

28th April 2010, 05:48 AM	#6
Worm Graduate Poster Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Coldstream, Scotland Posts: 1,086	Lib Dems just wanted Trident included in the upcoming review - which it currently isn't. In terms of cuts, as usual they'll target the Civil Service and simply demand 5% savings across the board from every department, same in local government.
	__________________ "Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent" Isaac Asimov Not all cults are bad - I've joined a cult of niceness

28th April 2010, 06:06 AM	#7
Darat Lackey Administrator / JREF Forum Liaison Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: South East, UK Posts: 64,804	Originally Posted by Rolfe I don't suppose we could just nix Trident? Too easy? Rolfe. The official figures puts the cost of the replacement for Trident at £20 billion, the estimates of those against it put it at £100 billion. The 100 billion figure appears to have come from Greenpeace and as far as I am aware the 100 billion is an estimate for the lifetime costs of the replacement which is 30 years. So in the worse case (that the £100 billion had to be started to be paid for now) it would be £3.33 billion a year. So scrapping the replacement would not really make much of a dent in even the current defence budget, scrapping the current Trident "instantly" - ignoring any costs incurred in decommissioning or penalties for contracts already signed would save (from what I've found from a quick search) would save somewhere in the region of £1 to £2 billion a year. So scrapping Trident is not going to help much given the scale of cuts we apparently "need".
	__________________ If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart? - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn 1918-2008 Last edited by Darat; 28th April 2010 at 06:19 AM. Reason: it to the

27th April 2010, 04:15 PM	#3
geni Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: UK Posts: 26,578	Originally Posted by Rolfe I don't suppose we could just nix Trident? Too easy? Rolfe. Doesn't count. The lib dems admit they would like to do that.

27th April 2010, 05:48 PM	#5
geni Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: UK Posts: 26,578	Originally Posted by Rolfe Well, they said something including the word Trident, but it was nowhere near a complete cut. Why doesn't it count? Because very few people would be at all disadvantaged? Rolfe. Because if you mean cutting trident rather than it's replacement that would probably cost money since you would have all the costs of shutting it down ahead of time and it doesn't cost that much to keep running.

28th April 2010, 06:16 AM	#8
zooterkin Nitpicking dilettante Moderator Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Berkshire, mostly Posts: 24,615	The converse to cuts is increasing taxes; I think all the main parties have avoided making any comment about VAT remaining at current levels, for example.
	__________________ The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232

28th April 2010, 06:19 AM	#9
Darat Lackey Administrator / JREF Forum Liaison Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: South East, UK Posts: 64,804	Labour ruled it out the other day - they are saying that since the Tories don't want the increase in NI to go ahead they will have to increase VAT. Certainly our VAT rate is lower than quite a few other EU countries, including France and Germany.
	__________________ If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart? - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn 1918-2008

28th April 2010, 06:41 AM	#10
funk de fino Dreaming of unicorns Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Alba Posts: 10,795	Public sector pay cuts, pay freezes and job losses.
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28th April 2010, 10:23 AM	#11
geni Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: UK Posts: 26,578	Originally Posted by funk de fino Public sector pay cuts, pay freezes and job losses. I thought the tories had already gone for the pay freeze option and the lib dems for job loses.

28th April 2010, 01:56 PM	#12
Jaggy Bunnet Philosopher Join Date: May 2003 Location: Sunny Leith Posts: 6,148	All of the above and more. Public sector pensions will get hit (and that won't make a dent in the deficit at all because they don't bother to count the cost of that). Pay freezes, job cuts, tax rises across the board. The increase in spending was never sustainable anyway (unless you are willing to put taxes up a lot which nobody appears to be), sustaining it against the context of paying for a recession is going to make a very tough spending round a whole lot worse.

28th April 2010, 02:05 PM	#13
Debaser Muse Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: West Yorkshire, UK Posts: 806	The road building budget. Probably not mourned by the green tinged members of the community, but civil engineering has already been hit quite badly, and there's been an ever present cry of 'skills shortage' throughout my career. Let's hope physical infrastructure is a thing of the past and personal jet-packs will come to our aid.

28th April 2010, 02:08 PM	#14
Debaser Muse Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: West Yorkshire, UK Posts: 806	By the way, as a private sector employee this is the second year of a pay freeze in my company. Rolling reviews are planned each quarter but I'm not holding my breath.

28th April 2010, 02:13 PM	#15
geni Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: UK Posts: 26,578	Originally Posted by Debaser The road building budget. I thought labour had already admitted to that one?

28th April 2010, 02:15 PM	#16
andyandy anthropomorphic ape Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: up a tree Posts: 8,197	Originally Posted by geni Well for the most part the politicians are not going to tell us so lets try some educated guessing. Further education is going to get hammered. No one is claiming it is protecteded and fewer problems are caused cutting BTECs and NVQs compared to increasing class sizes. A levels may get some degree of protection but no much. Higher education is likely to see cuts with politicians talking about cutting down on (cheap) "micky mouse" degrees while universities quietly cut (expensive) science and engineering degrees In terms of defence the navy will not get their carriers unless tha falklands kicks off again. Art funding will be cut. Science funding harder to say No one appears to have mentioned the fire brigade so expect cuts there. Other suggestions? Local councils will get absolutely hammered.
	__________________ "Contentment is found in the music of Bach, the books of Tolstoy and the equations of Dirac, not at the wheel of a BMW or the aisles of Harvey Nicks."

28th April 2010, 02:23 PM	#17
andyandy anthropomorphic ape Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: up a tree Posts: 8,197	The newsnight analysis of the IFS report was that both labour and the tories needed to find about £50billion over the course of the parliament - and based on their prior commitments (eg the pledge to maintain NHS spending etc), labour needed to be looking for savings in every £1 in £7 in areas not ringfenced.... whilst the tories was a staggering £1 in every £4.... Labour will massively hike taxes, the tories will slash and burn.... it'll be a fun decade. Well done Broon.
	__________________ "Contentment is found in the music of Bach, the books of Tolstoy and the equations of Dirac, not at the wheel of a BMW or the aisles of Harvey Nicks."

28th April 2010, 02:25 PM	#18
Debaser Muse Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: West Yorkshire, UK Posts: 806	Originally Posted by geni I thought labour had already admitted to that one? Well the HA are still progressing a number of fairly major schemes so either the message hasn't got through or they're living in hope.

28th April 2010, 02:33 PM	#19
geni Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: UK Posts: 26,578	Originally Posted by andyandy The newsnight analysis of the IFS report was that both labour and the tories needed to find about £50billion over the course of the parliament - and based on their prior commitments (eg the pledge to maintain NHS spending etc), labour needed to be looking for savings in every £1 in £7 in areas not ringfenced.... whilst the tories was a staggering £1 in every £4.... I'm expecting to see a lot of playing around what exactly falls withing the ring fences. Defintion of NHS could get interesting.

29th April 2010, 10:02 AM	#20
andyandy anthropomorphic ape Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: up a tree Posts: 8,197	Originally Posted by geni I'm expecting to see a lot of playing around what exactly falls withing the ring fences. Defintion of NHS could get interesting. true....i think these will be redefined in terms of "frontline" services - ie the bit that the middle classes see.....
	__________________ "Contentment is found in the music of Bach, the books of Tolstoy and the equations of Dirac, not at the wheel of a BMW or the aisles of Harvey Nicks."