Finland stops giving Swine Flu vaccine due to increased cases of Narcolepsy

Kuko 4000 · 26th August 2010, 02:32 AM

"Department of Health and Welfare recommends vaccination Pandemrix-suspension"

http://translate.google.fi/translate...30&sl=fi&tl=en

The Finnish health officials are now investigating the reason(s) behind the increase of Narcolepsy in children. 2-7 cases in under 16 year olds is the norm, the diagnosed cases of Narcolepsy are now at 15. Some neurologists speculate that if the increase is because of the Pandemrix vaccine, it has probably something to do with the adjuvant AS03. This has of course led to continuous trash media blow-ups and accusations of a conspiracy, etc.

A couple of interesting questions:

* 90 million shots (in over 20 countries) of Pandemrix worldwide (4 million of them to children), why has this increase in Narcolepsy happened only in Finland (15 diagnoses), and partly in Sweden (8 suspected cases)?

* There is a certain tissue type which is closely linked to Narcolepsy, afaik 90% of Narcolepsy cases have this tissue type. The average rate of this tissue type is about 17-18% in the population. All of the 15 diagnosed here in Finland have this tissue type.

* The adjuvant AS03 or one very similar to this has been used safely for around 10 years. Why would this cause problems now?

And then there's this:

It looks like some neurologists have withheld information regarding the link between the Pandemrix and Narcolepsy in order to publish their findings in a scientific journal.

http://translate.googleusercontent.c...la5pQ9gthNx1LA

I'm ashamed (and worried) of the sensationalist media coverage so far (no matter what happens), but at the same time interested about the weird increase of Narcolepsy cases in children.

T.A.M. · 26th August 2010, 06:19 AM

Correlation versus causation once again...nothing more to see here as far as i can see.

TAM

Deetee · 26th August 2010, 06:25 AM

Originally Posted by Kuko 4000

It looks like some neurologists have withheld information regarding the link between the Pandemrix and Narcolepsy in order to publish their findings in a scientific journal.

http://translate.googleusercontent.c...la5pQ9gthNx1LA

Hmmm........

Quote:

Neurologists to justify their choice by the fact that the scientific community seems to be more efficient than through the authorities.
Partinen believes that narkolepsiayhteys authorities might have wheels on the pushchair

Cuddles · 26th August 2010, 06:30 AM

So there's an outbreak of a disease known to be a contributing factor to narcolepsy (according to the article in the OP). A vaccination program is started. Narcolespy cases increase. Therefore it must have been the vaccine? Perhaps I'm missing something, but that doesn't seem to be the obvious conclusion to jump to.

In addition, it's worth noting that we're dealing with very small numbers here. If you have a normal distribution of cases per year, then sometimes you will get outliers, and when you're dealing with such small numbers, those outliers will represent large percentage increases (or decreases). That doesn't necessarily make them significant, it just means you have to be very careful with statistics when you're dealing with small numbers.

Rage Virus · 26th August 2010, 11:24 AM

Finnish people have narcolepsy? How can they even tell?

TubbaBlubba · 26th August 2010, 02:02 PM

Yeah, I read about it in a Swedish paper the other day. 6 million shots, and 8 suspected cases of narkolepsy. Now that's some statistical significance.

Kuko 4000 · 26th August 2010, 10:56 PM

There's an interesting new twist. Looks like the neurologist who claimed the causal connection between Pandemrix and narcolepsy is now in trouble. He has apparently mangled the message of the article sent to NEJM by other neurologists. The article contains only questions about the rise of the narcolepsy cases, no conclusions about causal connections. The Ministry of Health and Social Affairs has now asked Markku Partinen, the neurologist with the causal link claim, to a hearing because of possible breaking of the rules regarding the vaccine side effect reporting, and the spreading of misinformation.

The NEJM article itself is in trouble as well. The article includes names of neurologists who were not even aware of such article in the first place. These neurologists have now contacted NEJM with a letter clarifying this. They also wanted to point out that they disagree with the conclusions of Markku Partinen and that this was not a scientific study but a case report.

http://translate.google.fi/translate...ce&sl=fi&tl=en

http://translate.googleusercontent.c...CIOSqN4ZNF0bBw

laca · 26th August 2010, 11:06 PM

Has Andrew Wakefield emigrated to Finland and changed his name?

Kuko 4000 · 26th August 2010, 11:41 PM

Wakefield and Jefferson were the two names that came to my mind after reading this. Let's see what happens...

T.A.M. · 27th August 2010, 07:09 AM

Originally Posted by laca

Has Andrew Wakefield emigrated to Finland and changed his name?

Nice...i needed that laugh this morning.

TAM

Fnord · 27th August 2010, 07:56 AM

Originally Posted by T.A.M.

Correlation versus causation once again...nothing more to see here as far as i can see.

I had my last flu shot in the early 1990s, and had my worst case of the flu almost immediately thereafter. I also have not had the flu since then.

Yep. Nothing to see here. Move along

Mirrorglass · 27th August 2010, 08:00 AM

Originally Posted by Deetee

Originally Posted by Kuko 4000

It looks like some neurologists have withheld information regarding the link between the Pandemrix and Narcolepsy in order to publish their findings in a scientific journal.

http://translate.googleusercontent.c...la5pQ9gthNx1LA

Hmmm........

Quote:

Neurologists to justify their choice by the fact that the scientific community seems to be more efficient than through the authorities.
Partinen believes that narkolepsiayhteys authorities might have wheels on the pushchair

Google translate isn't all that good with metaphors. In case anyone is interested, here's a somewhat more accurate translation:

Quote:

Neurologists justify their choice by claiming it is more effective to influence throught the scientific community than through authorities. Partinen believes the narcolepsy connection could have jarred in the wheels of the authorities, but if the study was published in a scientific journal, the authorities would have to take it seriously.

Mind you, it still sounds like hogwash.

Kuko 4000 · 27th August 2010, 08:18 AM

The neurologist Markku Partinen took his words back regarding a 99% link between Narcolepsy and the Pandemrix vaccine. Now he says that it is an unfortunate coincidence and that the increased cases have nothing to do with the Pandemrix vaccine. The problem is that the popular media has used him as one of the main sources for sensationalist headlines for the last week or so. One can only guess how much this has affected the popular opinion regarding the safety of vaccines. The signs are worrying

Here's a translation of the article:

http://translate.google.fi/translate...ce&sl=fi&tl=en

Quote:

Markku Partinen eat one's word

A neurologist interviewed amulehden Markku Partinen eat one's word.

In today's morning newspaper interview reasoned Partinen is another tune.

"I now have a perception that increased narkolepsiatapaukset have been unfortunate coincidence and that they do not have anything to do with sikaifluenssarokotteen. Here is the hasty and made a meal of smth," says Partinen.

Ducky · 27th August 2010, 01:28 PM

My Own Private Finland?

T.A.M. · 27th August 2010, 01:50 PM

Originally Posted by Fnord

I had my last flu shot in the early 1990s, and had my worst case of the flu almost immediately thereafter. I also have not had the flu since then.

Yep. Nothing to see here. Move along

You likely had a bad immune response to the flu vax, rather then the actual Influenza virus. I suppose you could have had bad luck and not had enough antibodies built up from the shot prior to catching the influenza, but that would be less likely.

ONCE AGAIN, YOU CANNOT GET THE FLU (influenza virus) FROM THE FLU SHOT!!!!

TAM

Fnord · 27th August 2010, 02:08 PM

Originally Posted by T.A.M.

You likely had a bad immune response to the flu vax, rather then the actual Influenza virus. I suppose you could have had bad luck and not had enough antibodies built up from the shot prior to catching the influenza, but that would be less likely.

ONCE AGAIN, YOU CANNOT GET THE FLU (influenza virus) FROM THE FLU SHOT!!!!

Yeah ... right ... there's another JREF thread for that kinda talk...

T.A.M. · 27th August 2010, 05:50 PM

ok now I am completely lost...someone want to translate for me?

TAM

Eos of the Eons · 28th August 2010, 11:20 AM

Originally Posted by Fnord

Yeah ... right ... there's another JREF thread for that kinda talk...

You can't get the flu from the flu shot. It also takes 10 days after the shot for you to not get the flu. If you got the flu right after, then it's because you caught it from someone else before the shot could work to keep you from getting it.

Tatyana · 28th August 2010, 11:52 AM

Originally Posted by Fnord

I had my last flu shot in the early 1990s, and had my worst case of the flu almost immediately thereafter. I also have not had the flu since then.

Yep. Nothing to see here. Move along

I get a flu jab every year, I have for the last ten years. In fact, I had two last year.

I haven't had the flu since I started getting the jabs.

Before that, I had flu twice.

My anecdotal evidence trumps yours, greater numbers.

Yep.

PS: The flu jab can't give you the flu, it is often just a string of peptides. I would also recommend you check out what a virus actually is.

Skeptic Ginger · 28th August 2010, 12:01 PM

Originally Posted by T.A.M.

Correlation versus causation once again...nothing more to see here as far as i can see.

TAM

Yet.... I will wait to read the scientific paper.

Fins are a more genetically homogenous group so there is a possibility of seeing a reaction amplified in this group.

OTOH, clusters are a known phenomena that can make it appear there is connection when it is still a coincidence. And, enhanced case finding also mucks up appearances.

I do think we should be just as cautious dismissing these claims are we are accepting them. Our experience has been this stuff never pans out. But that can lead us to assume the next one won't pan out either.

ShadowSot · 28th August 2010, 12:02 PM

Originally Posted by Fnord

Yeah ... right ... there's another JREF thread for that kinda talk...

Eos of Eons is right, if you got the flu right after getting the shot, your body hadn't even had time to proccess the vaccine. You likely had already gotten infected with the flu before the shot.

I've not had the flu shot, usually don't get the flu. However, if I do get the flu... not gonna whine about it.

Er... to much.

Skeptic Ginger · 28th August 2010, 12:06 PM

Originally Posted by Kuko 4000

...
And then there's this:

It looks like some neurologists have withheld information regarding the link between the Pandemrix and Narcolepsy in order to publish their findings in a scientific journal.
....

This can be easily misinterpreted as some callous act for personal gain when that is not the case at all. It's common to not release snippets of a study before the full paper is ready. And sometimes papers are awaiting peer review before publication.

Clearly as you note, the press mucks up implications of scientific results. And if it isn't some life threatening finding everyone needs to know right now, science just takes time. It's a fact of life when doing science right.

Skeptic Ginger · 28th August 2010, 12:09 PM

Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba

Yeah, I read about it in a Swedish paper the other day. 6 million shots, and 8 suspected cases of narkolepsy. Now that's some statistical significance.

It can be. It depends on if they have 6 million controls to compare the rate to. We can detect rare events if the sample size is large enough.

Skeptic Ginger · 28th August 2010, 12:11 PM

Originally Posted by Fnord

I had my last flu shot in the early 1990s, and had my worst case of the flu almost immediately thereafter. I also have not had the flu since then.

Yep. Nothing to see here. Move along

Superstitious evidence is always so reliable.

Skeptic Ginger · 28th August 2010, 12:13 PM

Originally Posted by Mirrorglass

....
Mind you, it still sounds like hogwash.

The vaccine-Narcolepsy connection or the fact one commonly waits for scientific papers to be released in full before leaking snippets to the press?

Skeptic Ginger · 28th August 2010, 12:16 PM

Originally Posted by T.A.M.

You likely had a bad immune response to the flu vax, rather then the actual Influenza virus. I suppose you could have had bad luck and not had enough antibodies built up from the shot prior to catching the influenza, but that would be less likely.

ONCE AGAIN, YOU CANNOT GET THE FLU (influenza virus) FROM THE FLU SHOT!!!!

TAM

You can if you catch it from someone while standing in line for the jab.

Fnord forgot to consider that black cat which crossed his path that same year.

Skeptic Ginger · 28th August 2010, 12:22 PM

Originally Posted by Tatyana

I get a flu jab every year, I have for the last ten years. In fact, I had two last year.

I haven't had the flu since I started getting the jabs.

Before that, I had flu twice.

My anecdotal evidence trumps yours, greater numbers.

....

Flu vaccine side effects and effectiveness is one of the most studied subjects of all our vaccines. Fnord just can't think critically about something he/she has developed a fixed belief about all those years ago. It's a common problem with the way the human brain works.

Skeptic Ginger · 28th August 2010, 12:32 PM

Originally Posted by T.A.M.

ok now I am completely lost...someone want to translate for me?

TAM

You can Google English language news reports.

Here's one official press release from the EMA: European Medicines Agency starts review of Pandemrix

And here's the official press release from the Finnish version of the same:
National Institute for Health and Welfare recommends discontinuation of Pandemrix vaccinations

TubbaBlubba · 28th August 2010, 12:45 PM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

It can be. It depends on if they have 6 million controls to compare the rate to. We can detect rare events if the sample size is large enough.

It's hard to know without knowing the exact details, mainly why the vaccine was suspected. But a quick look shows that 8 narcoleptics in 6 million people would account for about 0,4% of the narcoleptics in the sample size.

Mirrorglass · 28th August 2010, 01:16 PM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

The vaccine-Narcolepsy connection or the fact one commonly waits for scientific papers to be released in full before leaking snippets to the press?

I was referring to the idea that the authorities wouldn't take the possible connection seriously before the paper was published, or would otherwise dawdle in taking action.

The actual connection I'm still somewhat skeptical about, but I will reserve judgment until the matter has been studied properly. The decision to cease vaccination I generally agree with, as the pandemy seems to be mostly over. The idea of not leaking snippets to the press before the paper is released is generally reasonable; however, the accusations here are of withholding information from relevant authorities.

George152 · 28th August 2010, 02:00 PM

People die from influenza.
Are the Finns suddenly bereft of all sense?

Mirrorglass · 28th August 2010, 02:48 PM

Originally Posted by George152

People die from influenza.
Are the Finns suddenly bereft of all sense?

A large part of the population is already vaccinated. The worst of the disease is over. There are suspicions of a fairly serious side effect. Why is this such a strange decision?

Well, I do have some suspicions that the motivation for it might have included the rising group-media-hysteria. But it's still a reasonable decision.

Skeptic Ginger · 28th August 2010, 03:19 PM

Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba

It's hard to know without knowing the exact details, mainly why the vaccine was suspected. But a quick look shows that 8 narcoleptics in 6 million people would account for about 0,4% of the narcoleptics in the sample size.

With more recent flu vaccine studies, a number of researchers have been collecting and establishing baseline rates of rare occurrences like GBS so we have a denominator. It wouldn't surprise me if the rate of narcolepsy is well established. It all depends on if anyone has collected the data and if a system of reporting the incidence is consistent and reliable.

Skeptic Ginger · 28th August 2010, 03:31 PM

Originally Posted by Mirrorglass

I was referring to the idea that the authorities wouldn't take the possible connection seriously before the paper was published, or would otherwise dawdle in taking action.

The actual connection I'm still somewhat skeptical about, but I will reserve judgment until the matter has been studied properly. The decision to cease vaccination I generally agree with, as the pandemy seems to be mostly over. The idea of not leaking snippets to the press before the paper is released is generally reasonable; however, the accusations here are of withholding information from relevant authorities.

Once again, there is no reason to immediately notify authorities of 8 cases of narcolepsy after vaccinations.

The way it works in the US is twofold. One, the manufacturers regularly collect post marketing adverse event data. I can and have contacted manufacturers and asked for this unpublished data.

A few unethical incidences have made the news lately of manufacturers hiding negative research results and going ahead with drug production the FDA may not have the same data the manufacturer has. I can only hope this is a rare practice and not indicative of a new trend. It certainly hasn't always been the norm but I do think the Wal St influence on drug companies has the capacity to influence the pharmaceutical industry negatively. If your CEO cares more about the company's stock price than good science, it could be a problem.

The second way it works in the case of vaccines in the US is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting system. We are obligated by law to report certain defined vaccine adverse events and anything else that could possibly be vaccine related. The government is collecting this data so naturally they have instant access to it. The data is also in the public arena so anyone can look at it.

I doubt there was any info kept secret from the two vaccine regulating bodies involved here. It's more likely they had the data first.

Skeptic Ginger · 28th August 2010, 03:32 PM

Originally Posted by George152

People die from influenza.
Are the Finns suddenly bereft of all sense?

There are other vaccine brands available. This is not a ban on flu vaccine, just on one product. We have one vaccine brand here in the US this year that is not approved for kids under age 9 because there might have been an increase in febrile (or other etiology?) seizures in kids in Australia getting that brand. There is plenty of other vaccine available.

Mirrorglass · 28th August 2010, 03:57 PM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Once again, there is no reason to immediately notify authorities of 8 cases of narcolepsy after vaccinations.

That's a bit of a misleading description. We're talking about 8 new cases of narcolepsy - already clearly above the usual numbers in Finland - noted by doctors who weren't looking for the connection. Several more cases were found once people actually started looking.

Mind you, I'm personally not very convinced Partinen's conduct here was wrong. What I was criticizing was the flimsy logic he used when responding to accusations.

In addition, the paper is rather shady all around. It lists as authors several MDs who were not aware of the paper at all. At the moment, my most likely guess is that Partinen screwed up, and is now trying to cover his tracks. Several of his statements, including the one I originally criticized, seem to fit this scenario.

Quote:

The way it works in the US is twofold. One, the manufacturers regularly collect post marketing adverse event data. I can and have contacted manufacturers and asked for this unpublished data.

A few unethical incidences have made the news lately of manufacturers hiding negative research results and going ahead with drug production the FDA may not have the same data the manufacturer has. I can only hope this is a rare practice and not indicative of a new trend. It certainly hasn't always been the norm but I do think the Wal St influence on drug companies has the capacity to influence the pharmaceutical industry negatively. If your CEO cares more about the company's stock price than good science, it could be a problem.

The second way it works in the case of vaccines in the US is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting system. We are obligated by law to report certain defined vaccine adverse events and anything else that could possibly be vaccine related. The government is collecting this data so naturally they have instant access to it. The data is also in the public arena so anyone can look at it.

I doubt there was any info kept secret from the two vaccine regulating bodies involved here. It's more likely they had the data first.

The system is fairly similar in Finland. However, if I recall correctly, narcolepsy was not foremost among the adverse effects expected from the vaccine, and not all of the doctors who made the diagnoses had made the proper reports. If so, this was misconduct on their part, but understandable with narcolepsy being as rare as it is. Partinen's actions are far more difficult to justify; he knew of the abnormal number of cases for months before contacting the authorities.

Skeptic Ginger · 28th August 2010, 04:37 PM

I'm missing your issue here, Mirrorglass. Just what wrong do you think occurred and why was it wrong?

Mirrorglass · 29th August 2010, 02:36 AM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

I'm missing your issue here, Mirrorglass. Just what wrong do you think occurred and why was it wrong?

First of all, some doctors diagnosed narcolepsy in children who had been vaccinated a few months earlier, but didn't report it adequately.

Secondly, a group of researchers, led by Partinen, started writing a paper on it. They knew there was an abnormal amount of narcolepsy this year, yet did not pass on this information. According to newspapers, the knowledge became public in early june, and until then, no action had been taken by any authorities.

When later questioned on this, Partinen explained that secrecy had been maintained because scientific journals did not publish papers if bits of the research had been leaked elsewhere.

He further explained this choice by claiming the authorities would be unlikely to act properly if the information was simply brought to them, but once the paper was published, they'd be forced to act. (This statement, in particular, sounds dubious to me.)

In addition, several MDs the paper lists as authors were not aware of the paper at all, and immediately requested their names be removed upon learning of it.

Skeptic Ginger · 29th August 2010, 11:11 PM

Originally Posted by Mirrorglass

First of all, some doctors diagnosed narcolepsy in children who had been vaccinated a few months earlier, but didn't report it adequately.

But you don't know that. Who do you think they reported the data to? Was it a coincidence and these doctors just happened to be the researchers interested in publishing a paper?

No, the doctors who first saw these patients would very likely be unrelated to the research project. The doctors who saw the patients would have reported the incidents and that's how the researchers eventually obtained the data.

Originally Posted by Mirrorglass

Secondly, a group of researchers, led by Partinen, started writing a paper on it. They knew there was an abnormal amount of narcolepsy this year, yet did not pass on this information. According to newspapers, the knowledge became public in early june, and until then, no action had been taken by any authorities.

With such an extremely rare potential side effect and a potentially deadly vaccine preventable disease, it is irresponsible to start ringing alarm bells on such a paucity of data.

Originally Posted by Mirrorglass

When later questioned on this, Partinen explained that secrecy had been maintained because scientific journals did not publish papers if bits of the research had been leaked elsewhere.

I believe that is a misconstrued comment. There are rules about publishing material that has been previously published. But leaks and news reports are not the issue, copyright law is.

Originally Posted by Mirrorglass

He further explained this choice by claiming the authorities would be unlikely to act properly if the information was simply brought to them, but once the paper was published, they'd be forced to act. (This statement, in particular, sounds dubious to me.)

I didn't read any such thing. I read that the news media would screw up the information if given snippets and the professional community would then not have the actual data to confirm or refute the news media nonsense.

Originally Posted by Mirrorglass

In addition, several MDs the paper lists as authors were not aware of the paper at all, and immediately requested their names be removed upon learning of it.

This should be examined as a separate issue. I need more data before knowing what this is about. All we have are rumors or one kind or another.

Jensen · 29th August 2010, 11:55 PM

I got the flu shot last winter, and since then I have been falling asleep every night. I just get so tired around 11 pm...

26th August 2010, 02:32 AM	#1
Kuko 4000 Graduate Poster Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Finland Posts: 1,551	Finland stops giving Swine Flu vaccine due to increased cases of Narcolepsy "Department of Health and Welfare recommends vaccination Pandemrix-suspension" http://translate.google.fi/translate...30&sl=fi&tl=en The Finnish health officials are now investigating the reason(s) behind the increase of Narcolepsy in children. 2-7 cases in under 16 year olds is the norm, the diagnosed cases of Narcolepsy are now at 15. Some neurologists speculate that if the increase is because of the Pandemrix vaccine, it has probably something to do with the adjuvant AS03. This has of course led to continuous trash media blow-ups and accusations of a conspiracy, etc. A couple of interesting questions: * 90 million shots (in over 20 countries) of Pandemrix worldwide (4 million of them to children), why has this increase in Narcolepsy happened only in Finland (15 diagnoses), and partly in Sweden (8 suspected cases)? * There is a certain tissue type which is closely linked to Narcolepsy, afaik 90% of Narcolepsy cases have this tissue type. The average rate of this tissue type is about 17-18% in the population. All of the 15 diagnosed here in Finland have this tissue type. * The adjuvant AS03 or one very similar to this has been used safely for around 10 years. Why would this cause problems now? And then there's this: It looks like some neurologists have withheld information regarding the link between the Pandemrix and Narcolepsy in order to publish their findings in a scientific journal. http://translate.googleusercontent.c...la5pQ9gthNx1LA I'm ashamed (and worried) of the sensationalist media coverage so far (no matter what happens), but at the same time interested about the weird increase of Narcolepsy cases in children.
	__________________ Richard Dawkins: "We are all atheists about most of the gods that humanity has ever believed in. Some of us just go one god further." Pixie of key: "HOW IS YOU NOT UNDERSTANDING WHAT I AM GIVING LECTURES ON A PROBLEM."

26th August 2010, 06:25 AM	#3
Deetee Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 3,790	Originally Posted by Kuko 4000 It looks like some neurologists have withheld information regarding the link between the Pandemrix and Narcolepsy in order to publish their findings in a scientific journal. http://translate.googleusercontent.c...la5pQ9gthNx1LA Hmmm........ Quote: Neurologists to justify their choice by the fact that the scientific community seems to be more efficient than through the authorities. Partinen believes that narkolepsiayhteys authorities might have wheels on the pushchair
Deetee Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 3,790	__________________ "Reci bobu bob a popu pop." - Tanja "Everything is physics. This does not mean that physics is everything." - Cuddles "The entire practice of homeopathy can be substituted with the advice to "take two aspirins and call me in the morning." - Linda "Homeopathy: I never knew there was so little in it." - BSM

26th August 2010, 06:30 AM	#4
Cuddles Decoy Moderator Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: A magical land full of pink fluffy sheeps and bunnies Posts: 16,580	So there's an outbreak of a disease known to be a contributing factor to narcolepsy (according to the article in the OP). A vaccination program is started. Narcolespy cases increase. Therefore it must have been the vaccine? Perhaps I'm missing something, but that doesn't seem to be the obvious conclusion to jump to. In addition, it's worth noting that we're dealing with very small numbers here. If you have a normal distribution of cases per year, then sometimes you will get outliers, and when you're dealing with such small numbers, those outliers will represent large percentage increases (or decreases). That doesn't necessarily make them significant, it just means you have to be very careful with statistics when you're dealing with small numbers.
	__________________ I am not a little teapot.

26th August 2010, 11:24 AM	#5
Rage Virus Thinker Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 126	Finnish people have narcolepsy? How can they even tell?
Rage Virus Thinker Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 126	__________________ Seven reasons to despair: **, , , , ******, **************, Tits.

26th August 2010, 02:02 PM	#6
TubbaBlubba Knave of the Dudes Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: Communist Kingdom of Sweden Posts: 7,409	Yeah, I read about it in a Swedish paper the other day. 6 million shots, and 8 suspected cases of narkolepsy. Now that's some statistical significance.
	__________________ Disagreement begets progress.

26th August 2010, 06:19 AM	#2
T.A.M. Keeper of the Kool-Vax Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: The Far East...of Canada Posts: 20,816	Correlation versus causation once again...nothing more to see here as far as i can see. TAM

26th August 2010, 10:56 PM	#7
Kuko 4000 Graduate Poster Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Finland Posts: 1,551	There's an interesting new twist. Looks like the neurologist who claimed the causal connection between Pandemrix and narcolepsy is now in trouble. He has apparently mangled the message of the article sent to NEJM by other neurologists. The article contains only questions about the rise of the narcolepsy cases, no conclusions about causal connections. The Ministry of Health and Social Affairs has now asked Markku Partinen, the neurologist with the causal link claim, to a hearing because of possible breaking of the rules regarding the vaccine side effect reporting, and the spreading of misinformation. The NEJM article itself is in trouble as well. The article includes names of neurologists who were not even aware of such article in the first place. These neurologists have now contacted NEJM with a letter clarifying this. They also wanted to point out that they disagree with the conclusions of Markku Partinen and that this was not a scientific study but a case report. http://translate.google.fi/translate...ce&sl=fi&tl=en http://translate.googleusercontent.c...CIOSqN4ZNF0bBw
	__________________ Richard Dawkins: "We are all atheists about most of the gods that humanity has ever believed in. Some of us just go one god further." Pixie of key: "HOW IS YOU NOT UNDERSTANDING WHAT I AM GIVING LECTURES ON A PROBLEM." Last edited by Kuko 4000; 26th August 2010 at 11:09 PM.

26th August 2010, 11:06 PM	#8
laca Illuminator Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 3,161	Has Andrew Wakefield emigrated to Finland and changed his name?
laca Illuminator Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 3,161

26th August 2010, 11:41 PM	#9
Kuko 4000 Graduate Poster Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Finland Posts: 1,551	Wakefield and Jefferson were the two names that came to my mind after reading this. Let's see what happens...
	__________________ Richard Dawkins: "We are all atheists about most of the gods that humanity has ever believed in. Some of us just go one god further." Pixie of key: "HOW IS YOU NOT UNDERSTANDING WHAT I AM GIVING LECTURES ON A PROBLEM."

27th August 2010, 07:09 AM	#10
T.A.M. Keeper of the Kool-Vax Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: The Far East...of Canada Posts: 20,816	Originally Posted by laca Has Andrew Wakefield emigrated to Finland and changed his name? Nice...i needed that laugh this morning. TAM

27th August 2010, 07:56 AM	#11
Fnord Metasyntactic Variable Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 6,633	Originally Posted by T.A.M. Correlation versus causation once again...nothing more to see here as far as i can see. I had my last flu shot in the early 1990s, and had my worst case of the flu almost immediately thereafter. I also have not had the flu since then. Yep. Nothing to see here. Move along
	__________________ Belief is the subjective acceptance of a (valid or invalid) concept, opinion, or theory; Faith is the unreasoned belief in improvable things; *and Knowledge* is the reasoned belief in provable things. Belief itself proves nothing.**

27th August 2010, 08:00 AM	#12
Mirrorglass Illuminator Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: Northern Europe Posts: 3,474	Originally Posted by Deetee Originally Posted by Kuko 4000 It looks like some neurologists have withheld information regarding the link between the Pandemrix and Narcolepsy in order to publish their findings in a scientific journal. http://translate.googleusercontent.c...la5pQ9gthNx1LA Hmmm........ Quote: Neurologists to justify their choice by the fact that the scientific community seems to be more efficient than through the authorities. Partinen believes that narkolepsiayhteys authorities might have wheels on the pushchair Google translate isn't all that good with metaphors. In case anyone is interested, here's a somewhat more accurate translation: Quote: Neurologists justify their choice by claiming it is more effective to influence throught the scientific community than through authorities. Partinen believes the narcolepsy connection could have jarred in the wheels of the authorities, but if the study was published in a scientific journal, the authorities would have to take it seriously. Mind you, it still sounds like hogwash.
	__________________ _{When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less. -Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass}

27th August 2010, 08:18 AM	#13
Kuko 4000 Graduate Poster Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Finland Posts: 1,551	The neurologist Markku Partinen took his words back regarding a 99% link between Narcolepsy and the Pandemrix vaccine. Now he says that it is an unfortunate coincidence and that the increased cases have nothing to do with the Pandemrix vaccine. The problem is that the popular media has used him as one of the main sources for sensationalist headlines for the last week or so. One can only guess how much this has affected the popular opinion regarding the safety of vaccines. The signs are worrying Here's a translation of the article: http://translate.google.fi/translate...ce&sl=fi&tl=en Quote: Markku Partinen eat one's word A neurologist interviewed amulehden Markku Partinen eat one's word. In today's morning newspaper interview reasoned Partinen is another tune. "I now have a perception that increased narkolepsiatapaukset have been unfortunate coincidence and that they do not have anything to do with sikaifluenssarokotteen. Here is the hasty and made a meal of smth," says Partinen.
	__________________ Richard Dawkins: "We are all atheists about most of the gods that humanity has ever believed in. Some of us just go one god further." Pixie of key: "HOW IS YOU NOT UNDERSTANDING WHAT I AM GIVING LECTURES ON A PROBLEM."

27th August 2010, 01:28 PM	#14
Ducky Titanium Puprhero Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Mayor of your front lawn. Posts: 12,296	My Own Private Finland?

27th August 2010, 01:50 PM	#15
T.A.M. Keeper of the Kool-Vax Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: The Far East...of Canada Posts: 20,816	Originally Posted by Fnord I had my last flu shot in the early 1990s, and had my worst case of the flu almost immediately thereafter. I also have not had the flu since then. Yep. Nothing to see here. Move along You likely had a bad immune response to the flu vax, rather then the actual Influenza virus. I suppose you could have had bad luck and not had enough antibodies built up from the shot prior to catching the influenza, but that would be less likely. ONCE AGAIN, YOU CANNOT GET THE FLU (influenza virus) FROM THE FLU SHOT!!!! TAM

27th August 2010, 02:08 PM	#16
Fnord Metasyntactic Variable Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 6,633	Originally Posted by T.A.M. You likely had a bad immune response to the flu vax, rather then the actual Influenza virus. I suppose you could have had bad luck and not had enough antibodies built up from the shot prior to catching the influenza, but that would be less likely. ONCE AGAIN, YOU CANNOT GET THE FLU (influenza virus) FROM THE FLU SHOT!!!! Yeah ... right ... there's another JREF thread for that kinda talk...
	__________________ Belief is the subjective acceptance of a (valid or invalid) concept, opinion, or theory; Faith is the unreasoned belief in improvable things; *and Knowledge* is the reasoned belief in provable things. Belief itself proves nothing.**

27th August 2010, 05:50 PM	#17
T.A.M. Keeper of the Kool-Vax Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: The Far East...of Canada Posts: 20,816	ok now I am completely lost...someone want to translate for me? TAM

28th August 2010, 11:20 AM	#18
Eos of the Eons Mad Scientist Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Alberta Posts: 13,894	Originally Posted by Fnord Yeah ... right ... there's another JREF thread for that kinda talk... You can't get the flu from the flu shot. It also takes 10 days after the shot for you to not get the flu. If you got the flu right after, then it's because you caught it from someone else before the shot could work to keep you from getting it.
	__________________ Motion affecting a measuring device does not affect what is actually being measured, except to inaccurately measure it. the immaterial world doesn't matter, cause it ain't matter-Jeff Corey my karma ran over my dogma-vbloke The Lateral Truth: An Apostate's Bible Stories by Rebecca Bradley, read it!

28th August 2010, 11:52 AM	#19
Tatyana Illuminator Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Experiment 1: Flame and Flesh Posts: 3,431	Originally Posted by Fnord I had my last flu shot in the early 1990s, and had my worst case of the flu almost immediately thereafter. I also have not had the flu since then. Yep. Nothing to see here. Move along I get a flu jab every year, I have for the last ten years. In fact, I had two last year. I haven't had the flu since I started getting the jabs. Before that, I had flu twice. My anecdotal evidence trumps yours, greater numbers. Yep. PS: The flu jab can't give you the flu, it is often just a string of peptides. I would also recommend you check out what a virus actually is.

28th August 2010, 12:01 PM	#20
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,560	Originally Posted by T.A.M. Correlation versus causation once again...nothing more to see here as far as i can see. TAM Yet.... I will wait to read the scientific paper. Fins are a more genetically homogenous group so there is a possibility of seeing a reaction amplified in this group. OTOH, clusters are a known phenomena that can make it appear there is connection when it is still a coincidence. And, enhanced case finding also mucks up appearances. I do think we should be just as cautious dismissing these claims are we are accepting them. Our experience has been this stuff never pans out. But that can lead us to assume the next one won't pan out either.
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28th August 2010, 12:02 PM	#21
ShadowSot Muse Join Date: May 2010 Location: Pensacola Posts: 769	Originally Posted by Fnord Yeah ... right ... there's another JREF thread for that kinda talk... Eos of Eons is right, if you got the flu right after getting the shot, your body hadn't even had time to proccess the vaccine. You likely had already gotten infected with the flu before the shot. I've not had the flu shot, usually don't get the flu. However, if I do get the flu... not gonna whine about it. Er... to much.
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28th August 2010, 12:06 PM	#22
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,560	Originally Posted by Kuko 4000 ... And then there's this: It looks like some neurologists have withheld information regarding the link between the Pandemrix and Narcolepsy in order to publish their findings in a scientific journal. .... This can be easily misinterpreted as some callous act for personal gain when that is not the case at all. It's common to not release snippets of a study before the full paper is ready. And sometimes papers are awaiting peer review before publication. Clearly as you note, the press mucks up implications of scientific results. And if it isn't some life threatening finding everyone needs to know right now, science just takes time. It's a fact of life when doing science right.
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28th August 2010, 12:09 PM	#23
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,560	Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba Yeah, I read about it in a Swedish paper the other day. 6 million shots, and 8 suspected cases of narkolepsy. Now that's some statistical significance. It can be. It depends on if they have 6 million controls to compare the rate to. We can detect rare events if the sample size is large enough.
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28th August 2010, 12:11 PM	#24
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,560	Originally Posted by Fnord I had my last flu shot in the early 1990s, and had my worst case of the flu almost immediately thereafter. I also have not had the flu since then. Yep. Nothing to see here. Move along Superstitious evidence is always so reliable.
	__________________ (*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, ~~Pubbie Party, Repubs~~ "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)

28th August 2010, 12:13 PM	#25
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,560	Originally Posted by Mirrorglass .... Mind you, it still sounds like hogwash. The vaccine-Narcolepsy connection or the fact one commonly waits for scientific papers to be released in full before leaking snippets to the press?
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28th August 2010, 12:16 PM	#26
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,560	Originally Posted by T.A.M. You likely had a bad immune response to the flu vax, rather then the actual Influenza virus. I suppose you could have had bad luck and not had enough antibodies built up from the shot prior to catching the influenza, but that would be less likely. ONCE AGAIN, YOU CANNOT GET THE FLU (influenza virus) FROM THE FLU SHOT!!!! TAM You can if you catch it from someone while standing in line for the jab. Fnord forgot to consider that black cat which crossed his path that same year.
	__________________ (*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, ~~Pubbie Party, Repubs~~ "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)

28th August 2010, 12:22 PM	#27
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,560	Originally Posted by Tatyana I get a flu jab every year, I have for the last ten years. In fact, I had two last year. I haven't had the flu since I started getting the jabs. Before that, I had flu twice. My anecdotal evidence trumps yours, greater numbers. .... Flu vaccine side effects and effectiveness is one of the most studied subjects of all our vaccines. Fnord just can't think critically about something he/she has developed a fixed belief about all those years ago. It's a common problem with the way the human brain works.
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28th August 2010, 12:32 PM	#28
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,560	Originally Posted by T.A.M. ok now I am completely lost...someone want to translate for me? TAM You can Google English language news reports. Here's one official press release from the EMA: European Medicines Agency starts review of Pandemrix And here's the official press release from the Finnish version of the same: National Institute for Health and Welfare recommends discontinuation of Pandemrix vaccinations
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28th August 2010, 12:45 PM	#29
TubbaBlubba Knave of the Dudes Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: Communist Kingdom of Sweden Posts: 7,409	Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger It can be. It depends on if they have 6 million controls to compare the rate to. We can detect rare events if the sample size is large enough. It's hard to know without knowing the exact details, mainly why the vaccine was suspected. But a quick look shows that 8 narcoleptics in 6 million people would account for about 0,4% of the narcoleptics in the sample size.
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28th August 2010, 01:16 PM	#30
Mirrorglass Illuminator Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: Northern Europe Posts: 3,474	Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger The vaccine-Narcolepsy connection or the fact one commonly waits for scientific papers to be released in full before leaking snippets to the press? I was referring to the idea that the authorities wouldn't take the possible connection seriously before the paper was published, or would otherwise dawdle in taking action. The actual connection I'm still somewhat skeptical about, but I will reserve judgment until the matter has been studied properly. The decision to cease vaccination I generally agree with, as the pandemy seems to be mostly over. The idea of not leaking snippets to the press before the paper is released is generally reasonable; however, the accusations here are of withholding information from relevant authorities.
	__________________ _{When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less. -Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass}

28th August 2010, 02:00 PM	#31
George152 Master Poster Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Hamilton New Zealand Posts: 2,042	People die from influenza. Are the Finns suddenly bereft of all sense?
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28th August 2010, 02:48 PM	#32
Mirrorglass Illuminator Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: Northern Europe Posts: 3,474	Originally Posted by George152 People die from influenza. Are the Finns suddenly bereft of all sense? A large part of the population is already vaccinated. The worst of the disease is over. There are suspicions of a fairly serious side effect. Why is this such a strange decision? Well, I do have some suspicions that the motivation for it might have included the rising group-media-hysteria. But it's still a reasonable decision.
	__________________ _{When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less. -Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass}

28th August 2010, 03:19 PM	#33
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,560	Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba It's hard to know without knowing the exact details, mainly why the vaccine was suspected. But a quick look shows that 8 narcoleptics in 6 million people would account for about 0,4% of the narcoleptics in the sample size. With more recent flu vaccine studies, a number of researchers have been collecting and establishing baseline rates of rare occurrences like GBS so we have a denominator. It wouldn't surprise me if the rate of narcolepsy is well established. It all depends on if anyone has collected the data and if a system of reporting the incidence is consistent and reliable.
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28th August 2010, 03:31 PM	#34
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,560	Originally Posted by Mirrorglass I was referring to the idea that the authorities wouldn't take the possible connection seriously before the paper was published, or would otherwise dawdle in taking action. The actual connection I'm still somewhat skeptical about, but I will reserve judgment until the matter has been studied properly. The decision to cease vaccination I generally agree with, as the pandemy seems to be mostly over. The idea of not leaking snippets to the press before the paper is released is generally reasonable; however, the accusations here are of withholding information from relevant authorities. Once again, there is no reason to immediately notify authorities of 8 cases of narcolepsy after vaccinations. The way it works in the US is twofold. One, the manufacturers regularly collect post marketing adverse event data. I can and have contacted manufacturers and asked for this unpublished data. A few unethical incidences have made the news lately of manufacturers hiding negative research results and going ahead with drug production the FDA may not have the same data the manufacturer has. I can only hope this is a rare practice and not indicative of a new trend. It certainly hasn't always been the norm but I do think the Wal St influence on drug companies has the capacity to influence the pharmaceutical industry negatively. If your CEO cares more about the company's stock price than good science, it could be a problem. The second way it works in the case of vaccines in the US is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting system. We are obligated by law to report certain defined vaccine adverse events and anything else that could possibly be vaccine related. The government is collecting this data so naturally they have instant access to it. The data is also in the public arena so anyone can look at it. I doubt there was any info kept secret from the two vaccine regulating bodies involved here. It's more likely they had the data first.
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28th August 2010, 03:32 PM	#35
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,560	Originally Posted by George152 People die from influenza. Are the Finns suddenly bereft of all sense? There are other vaccine brands available. This is not a ban on flu vaccine, just on one product. We have one vaccine brand here in the US this year that is not approved for kids under age 9 because there might have been an increase in febrile (or other etiology?) seizures in kids in Australia getting that brand. There is plenty of other vaccine available.
	__________________ (Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, ~~Pubbie Party, Repubs~~ "Republics" and Republic Party in response.) Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 28th August 2010 at 03:33 PM.*