Ken Ring the Moonman

[gumboot]

Hi all,

I was just wondering if anyone has some good solid information on this particular fellow. He's a local New Zealander who claims to be able to predict weather patterns, volcanic activity, earthquakes and so forth up to 2 years out, based on the movements of the moon.

He's recently hit the spotlight here because he claims to have predicted the Sept 4 Canterbury earthquake and the more recent and more devastating aftershock on 22 February. He also claims there will be another big one on March 20 this year.

The local media did a small piece of him tonight and the presenter took him to task, and offered up a couple of points that point to how fundamentally worthless his claims are, but I was wondering if anyone knows of any more comprehensive or in-depth analysis of his previous work and his alleged "accuracy".

His website is Predict Weather.

During the interview a scientist from GNS Science (kind of the NZ equivalent of USGS) made reference to historic studies into a causal relationship between earthquakes and the moon and how the conclusion was that the moon could affect very small quakes, but not large ones. If any geologists or anyone knows anything more about that sort of work I would be interested too.

I am normally not particularly interested in trying to combat quack science as I consider most of it unworthy of addressing, but this guy, by making his predictions about future quakes, is causing anxiousness and stress to incredibly vulnerable people at a time of huge hardship, and it feels to me like he's just trying to reap financial benefits from this tragedy, which makes my blood boil.

[megaresp]

Originally Posted by gumboot

...wondering if anyone has some good solid information on this particular fellow...

His site gives an address in Auckland. If there's a Sceptics Group in Auckland, get in touch and see if they've heard of him.

I suggest you start logging his future predictions. If they're published, get screen captures. Also see if the "Way Back" machine is capturing his site.

That way, in future you can expose his nuttiness, delusion or perfidy for what it is. There is also bound to be a sceptical journo somewhere in NZ who is interested in helping shine a light on his failures at some point in the future. Maybe you and s/he can touch base and form an alliance?

If he's offering his services for money, you could make yourself a real thorn in his side by letting his clients know about his failures. This is probably only possible after-the-fact (although you will start to get lucky if you become famous as this guy's nemesis). Articles such as "NZ Department of Whatever Spends $5 million on Nutter" make for good press, and will help dissuade many organisations from doing likewise. Of course, you need to be fairly nefarious to pursue such activity :-)

Given the size of NZ and the specific nature of his brand of nuttiness, I think it should also be relatively easy to get ranked in Google for his main keywords and/or his site's name. You probably can't get ranked above him for search terms than include his own and/or site name. But you definitely can show up immediately below him in Google, and with a listing that has a title along the lines of "Ken Ring is a Phoney - I have proof" with a short text blurb to match. This is remarkably easy to achieve. And it's likely to stay there as long as Google feels the content on your site has merit.

If you have no experience of SEO, let me know via PM and I'll point you in the right direction. If your local skeptic's club has an SEO guy, so much the better. S/he will have local knowledge of how to get stuff ranked well in Google NZ.

[Akhenaten]

Originally Posted by gumboot

Hi all,

I was just wondering if anyone has some good solid information on this particular fellow. He's a local New Zealander who claims to be able to predict weather patterns, volcanic activity, earthquakes and so forth up to 2 years out, based on the movements of the moon.

You countryman and fellow JREFFer, Burning Beard might be worth a PM, cobber.

There's also a thread at The Australasian Skeptics Forum about KR that I'm happy to recommend.

[megaresp]

Originally Posted by Akhenaten

There's also a thread at The Australasian Skeptics Forum about KR that I'm happy to recommend.

Excellent find Akhenaten. That link lead me to this, which puts Gumboot in touch with other Kiwis who have discussed this bloke previous. That page in turn links to another debunking his predictions for Christchurch rainfall in 2006. Not to mention this. NZ sceptics seem to know a lot about this guy.

[gumboot]

I have found the motherload. I'm still working through this massive article but I have already found gold in the comments section when he is quoted in discussion after the Sept 4 Earthquake, after initially claiming the next big quake would be March 20.

Quote:

Update 13 October... Therefore it seems unlikely that as large an earthquake (as 4 Sept) will occur in the same place.

I would still not consider that another massive earthquake is certain, in fact I think it’s more likely not to be the case in Christchurch. I can only repeat that other well-known earthquakes in NZ’s history have not, as a rule revisited the same site.

For another disastrous event, Christchurch may or may not be in the firing line again; it could be Wellington or anywhere, and it may not even happen.

The numbers of shakes do seem to be getting less and the distances greater between clusters. People are at last adjusting.

...my guess is that these aftershocks will end soon for Christchurch, probably around the end of November.

it is reasonable to relax and asume that another devastating shake is unlikely to repeat anytime soon, despite a seismology-department knee-jerk reaction that a 6+ mag. earthquake aftershock could be arriving in the district at any time.

Nothing is achieved by the so-called earthquake experts warning of ever-impending doom, which may be an ongoing exercise in damage control to cover-up performance embarrassment. To proclaim afterwards that more and bigger shakes were to come [is a] distraction... perhaps they should admit to that, rather than make more claims about future events to come

There is no reason to suppose any aftershocks of significance will occur...

it will take a long time to get over that fright in the middle of that early September night.

I've bolded the particularly pertinent points. Aside from the astounding irony on display (disparaging the scientists for "predicting" quakes when that's exactly what he does), here he's actually making two distinct claims that proved wholly wrong.

Firstly, as to aftershocks stopping by the end of November... on December 26th Christchurch suffered its largest and most damaging aftershock since the original quake, which actually caused more damage than the original quake, as it was nearer the city, shallower, and buildings were already weak (sound familiar?).

He further derides the statements made by scientists, from the outset, that Christchurch should expect an aftershock potentially as large as one magnitude point smaller than the original quake. Which is exactly what we got last week. To further try claim credit for predicting this quake is astounding, and further still to put fear into the citizens of Christchurch by predicting a March 20 quake when his previous references to this "event" make it abundantly clear he doesn't think it will happen in Christchurch, but somewhere else.

The final cherry on top, for me, is the following statement:

"I can only repeat that other well-known earthquakes in NZ’s history have not, as a rule revisited the same site."

In an earlier remark (for which this one was the update) he claimed:

"Yet we can observe in hindsight that the Napier earthquake didn’t come back to buzz Napier"

The Hawkes' Bay Earthquake occurred on 3 February, 1931. It measured 7.9 and totally flattened the cities of Napier and Hastings, killing 256 people - the single worst natural disaster in New Zealand's history. Not only is it a "well known" earthquake, but it's the most famous and well-known earthquake ever in our history.

Ten days after the earthquake the largest aftershock struck, with a magnitude of 7.3 - itself larger than the original Canterbury earthquake of September 4. Not only did the Napier earthquake "come back to buzz Napier", it did so with vengeance, less than two weeks later.

[George152]

Ken (dingaling) Ring plays a banjo.
That should be sufficient warning to those passing by.
His claim about the possibility of further earthquakes is taken from the official documentation and munged to appear as if its all his own.
His forecasts are based on the Moon for some reason which is always there exerting the same amount of effect on the tides but Ken thinks if you can see it it has more effect...

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by megaresp

His site gives an address in Auckland. If there's a Sceptics Group in Auckland, get in touch and see if they've heard of him.

Oh they've already had Ken make his presence known on their very own forum. Ken is an ex children's entertainer and is in Auckland's magician's guild - and so is a particular person on the Auckland skeptics forum. He's used that organisation to effectively gag the guy from talking about Ken anywhere. He's on these forums too.

Ken is a very unpleasant man to deal with.

[Captain_Swoop]

So it's a conspiracy?

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

So it's a conspiracy?

I'm not totally sure if Ken Ring is just deluded or just trying to advertise himself and his weather almanacs.

[gumboot]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

I'm not totally sure if Ken Ring is just deluded or just trying to advertise himself and his weather almanacs.

He's deluded. I was suspicious, but my suspicions are now confirmed. I thought he was familiar, and indeed he is. Some eleven years ago while I was at film school one of my fellow students (who was right into this kind of stuff) did a documentary on Ken Ring and his theories. There's no doubt in my mind, based on the raw interview footage which I saw, that he really believes this stuff.

It would be sad, if he wasn't also exploiting the vulnerable to make money. IMHO he's as bad as those two guys who got busted stealing generators being used by emergency services.

[Burning Beard]

Oh my, support for this clown* is everywhere. People aren't just talking about him, many are flippin' terrified.

A work-mate told me today that her little girl is terrified of March 20th and is "sick of being scared.

*I think I'm allowed to call him that, because he actually is.

[wombatwal]

Have a geek at this Silly Beliefs.
There is a lot on Ken Ring, plus feedback from him on their blogs there.

[DamonC]

It is very sad that so many people believe him. My brother and his family have been staying with us for the last few days, just so they are away from Christchurch. My sister in-law is staying away from Christchurch for the next few weeks so that she isn't there on the 20th of March, all because of Ken Rings predictions.

[George152]

Originally Posted by DamonC

It is very sad that so many people believe him. My brother and his family have been staying with us for the last few days, just so they are away from Christchurch. My sister in-law is staying away from Christchurch for the next few weeks so that she isn't there on the 20th of March, all because of Ken Rings predictions.

He missed the Japanese Earthquake so I wouldn't put much credence into his claims.
We (and the Japanese ) live on earthquake fault lines.
Earthquakes happen, the powerful waves they generate happen...
Ignore Ring and his lunacy, get on with life.....

[MG1962]

Originally Posted by gumboot

During the interview a scientist from GNS Science (kind of the NZ equivalent of USGS) made reference to historic studies into a causal relationship between earthquakes and the moon and how the conclusion was that the moon could affect very small quakes, but not large ones. If any geologists or anyone knows anything more about that sort of work I would be interested too.

Over the years there have been some excellent efforts to prove this very intuitive theory. The last I heard causality could not be proved. The reason, suprisingly simple.

The Earth's crust does flex as a consequence of the Moon, however on a daily basis this flexing remains fluid and does not stick. Sort of like a door opened often, and one opened rarely

In terms of volcanic activity - A big study was done in Italy, centering on Stromoboli - again turned up no pattern or linked causality

[DamonC]

Originally Posted by George152

He missed the Japanese Earthquake so I wouldn't put much credence into his claims.
We (and the Japanese ) live on earthquake fault lines.
Earthquakes happen, the powerful waves they generate happen...
Ignore Ring and his lunacy, get on with life.....

Oh don't worry I know it is an absolute crock, but it does bother me that others actually are so into it that they live their lives by his rubbish 'predictions'.

[vIQleS]

Ken Ring who?

Never heard of him...

:-P

[Captain_Swoop]

People who buy into this must think that the 'mainstream' are stupid. Don't you think that Japan would have taken a lot more notice if there was anyting in the Moon causing quakes. I bet the 'believers' will trumpet the Japan quake though as it has happened close to this 'nearf approach' of the Moon.

[vIQleS]

Oh and someone *cough* just created this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Ring_(astrologer)

Discussion on renaming if anyone wants to chime in... (vote for Ken Ring (moonman))