A Song of Ice and Fire: GRRM announces A Dance With Dragons publication date.

[ZirconBlue]

Originally Posted by Vortigern99

That's a reducto ad absurdium which collapses under scrutiny. This claim is akin to asserting that LOTR is WWII with elves and orcs. It's inaccurate, unhelpful and unsupportable. I challenge you to back it up on any kind of one-to-one basis between factual history and the four books of the ASoIaF series.

Obviously, some of the original framework for the stories was based on the War of the Roses. But, there's no actual one-to-one correspondence.

Quote:

I disagree. I find the world of Westeros and Essos to be highly believable.

Same here.

Quote:

I dislike the premium placed on "originality". I challenge you to produce some evidence for Martin's alleged plagiarism. Also, please explain what you mean by "[in]cohesive".

The masterful quality of ASoIaF exists mainly in its inversion and subversion of fantasy and historical tropes. Those so-called cliches have to be established first, before they can be turned on their heads. Martin is playing with our familiarity with these tropes before he zags in an unexpected direction and/or links that trope to something identifiable, real and human.

The ingenuity and complexity of the plotting, the identifiable humanity of the characters, the surprises and twists, the vivid cultural (artistic, heraldic, religious, architectural, etc.) descriptions, and the emotive aspect of the tragic events are what make the series stand apart.

Additionally, "orginality" often comes not in only using unique components, but by synthesizing common components in a unique way.

ETA: I don't think "synthesizing" is the right word, here, but I can't think of the word I wanted to use.

Originally Posted by Vortigern99

ASoIaF is so conceptually, materially and literarily distinct from LOTR, I simply cannot imagine what you mean by the bare assertion "SoIaF tries to be what LOTR was". In what sense do you mean?

ASoIaF seems to me to set out to do something completely different from what LotR set out to do. Tolkien was exploring languages and a world. GRRM is exploring characters and a story.

[IDB87]

Originally Posted by Vortigern99

That's a reducto ad absurdium which collapses under scrutiny. This claim is akin to asserting that LOTR is WWII with elves and orcs. It's inaccurate, unhelpful and unsupportable. I challenge you to back it up on any kind of one-to-one basis between factual history and the four books of the ASoIaF series.

Similarities can be drawn, but I think the finer details are mostly superfluous. GRRM drew inspiration from War of the Roses and Jacobitism, and those influences are easy to see in his writings. Instead of having Tolkien's (or even history's) extensive background and histories, he throws in Dragons and White Walkers and shades, which have been extremely disappointing thus far. This causes us to focus on the dynastic civil war, which as I said, drew heavy inspiration from English History. There is nothing wrong with that, but that's all that he's got going, and it's winding down for the most part. I'm not surprised he's taken forever to get these next books out

Quote:

Now you're making sense.

Mark this day down on your calendar.

Quote:

I disagree. I find the world of Westeros and Essos to be highly believable. This is a matter of opinion which you're welcome to try to substantiate.

I would say it's no more believable than Middle-Earth. Cut out the dragons and White Walkers, and you have a culture that has spanned thousands of years that has not progressed at all and seems to have crawled out of the woods wearing plate armor and riding destriers.

Quote:

As to the bolded sentence, it's a false dilemma. They can build warehouses and salt meat and joust, since typically it isn't the knights and lords doing the former. This is another reducto ad absurdium.

Certainly can. The point being the Seven Kingdoms are feudal in nature and that feudal levies are more concerned with planting and farming than they are with fighting, usually disbanding around the time of harvest. This was the case with a normal winter that lasts four to five months, not ten years with a chance of zombies. The world is unbelievable because with seasons that last for YEARS, the farmers would be Kings, not lowly peasants who are spat on and sent to the wall.

[AmandaM]

Sorry if I missed this, but:

Is "Dance with Dragons" actually supposed to FINISH the series, or is it just another chapter in the continuing saga? I thought when it was first advertised (a couple of years ago) it was promoted as the final book, but I may have dreamed that.

Does anyone know, or has GRRM said?

[IDB87]

Originally Posted by AmandaM

Sorry if I missed this, but:

Is "Dance with Dragons" actually supposed to FINISH the series, or is it just another chapter in the continuing saga? I thought when it was first advertised (a couple of years ago) it was promoted as the final book, but I may have dreamed that.

Does anyone know, or has GRRM said?

Third to last.

Dance with Dragons
The Winds of Winter
A Dream of Spring

[Mark6]

Originally Posted by IDB87

Similarities can be drawn, but I think the finer details are mostly superfluous. GRRM drew inspiration from War of the Roses and Jacobitism, and those influences are easy to see in his writings.

Considering that GRRM said on record that "Song of Ice and Fire" is inspired by War of the Roses, I am mystified why anyone is debating it.

Quote:

Cut out the dragons and White Walkers, and you have a culture that has spanned thousands of years that has not progressed at all and seems to have crawled out of the woods wearing plate armor and riding destriers.

I am not saying it is believable, but GRRM at least tried to address this problem. In some interview he said that irregular winters which last years and sometimes decades keep throwing back all technological advances. White Walkers too have a hand in that. If these winters were a little worse, technology would go into downward spiral and humans would become extinct.

[IDB87]

Originally Posted by Mark6

I am not saying it is believable, but GRRM at least tried to address this problem. In some interview he said that irregular winters which last years and sometimes decades keep throwing back all technological advances. White Walkers too have a hand in that. If these winters were a little worse, technology would go into downward spiral and humans would become extinct.

Ehh, I don't buy it. Instead of writing it into his stories, he has to go on record and give an interview about it? This says to me he didn't give any (or extremely little) thought about how his world (or, say, the English world) would have developed under such insane weather conditions.

For example: a two day ice storm long ice storm crippled New England (where I live).

A ten year ice storm would destroy any civilization, anywhere.

The fact that the peasants and lords of Westeros don't really seem to care about this impending DOOM suggests a confidence in their agriculture and food preservation, or they have some kind of advanced heating systems for their mud holes.

[Madalch]

Originally Posted by IDB87

For example: a two day ice storm long ice storm crippled New England (where I live).

A ten year ice storm would destroy any civilization, anywhere.

I don't think the winter in Westeros is going to be a ten-year ice storm, more like a set of years with harsh winters and crappy summers. They'll still be able to grow crops (otherwise everyone would have starved in the first winter)- just not as much.

New England was crippled by a two-day ice storm because people there rely on a) electricity, b) roads they can drive cars and trucks on, and c) availability of piped-in water, natural gas, and/or heating oil. A village in Westeros wouldn't notice if these things suddenly vanished; we would.

[Dunstan]

Originally Posted by IDB87

Ehh, I don't buy it. Instead of writing it into his stories, he has to go on record and give an interview about it? This says to me he didn't give any (or extremely little) thought about how his world (or, say, the English world) would have developed under such insane weather conditions.

For example: a two day ice storm long ice storm crippled New England (where I live).

A ten year ice storm would destroy any civilization, anywhere.

The fact that the peasants and lords of Westeros don't really seem to care about this impending DOOM suggests a confidence in their agriculture and food preservation, or they have some kind of advanced heating systems for their mud holes.

I've never understood the winters on Westeros to be ten-year-long ice storms. I just figured it was, well, winter. And that some of the rhetoric (I'm thinking here of Ser Alliser's speech on the recent HBO episode) is a little overheated (heh), of the "I used to walk five miles through ten-foot snowdrifts to school uphill -- both ways" variety.

In Dorne, it's probably not that big a deal. In the Reach and the Riverlands, they can maybe grow a few meager winter crops. In the North, it's fairly nasty: not continual ice-storm nasty, but bad enough that the population huddles up in places like Winterfell (which has hot springs) or the coastal towns.

Don't get me wrong: all of the above should still make for a dramatically different society, and I've been struck many times by how GRRM created a world with this distinguishing characteristic and yet doesn't seem to do much with it. (And my rationalizing and fanwanking about the winters not being that bad fails me utterly when it comes to Beyond the Wall. It seems like it's borderline survival conditions there even in "summer," so how the wildlings manage to survive winters that long is pretty perplexing.)

I love the Ice and Fire series because of its complex characters and elaborate plot. But I think you could go back and edit out all the references to the weird climate and not affect the books that much -- it just seems like an idea that's there to be "cool" rather than a well-integrated and explored feature. I'm reminded of the Runelords fantasy series. I read the first two books because I was interested by what seemed like it would be the central idea -- the ability to magically transfer one person's strength or eyesight or beauty or intelligence, etc. to another to create a society of superhumans and cripples. I figured you could write many books about the social and moral implications of that kind of magic/technology. But by the end of the first book and into the second, the author just seemed bored by that and starting introducing new things into the mythology about the lead character being the Earth King, and the ubiquitous existential threat from hordes of strange creatures, and I wasn't interested in reading another Generic Fantasy Series.

[IDB87]

Originally Posted by Madalch

I don't think the winter in Westeros is going to be a ten-year ice storm, more like a set of years with harsh winters and crappy summers. They'll still be able to grow crops (otherwise everyone would have starved in the first winter)- just not as much.

Again, the fact that you don't quite know illustrates the fact that even GRRM doesn't know. And, I don't think they have greenhouses in Westeros.

Quote:

New England was crippled by a two-day ice storm because people there rely on a) electricity, b) roads they can drive cars and trucks on, and c) availability of piped-in water, natural gas, and/or heating oil. A village in Westeros wouldn't notice if these things suddenly vanished; we would.

It was more the sheer cold (due to lack of electricity like you said), general destruction (trees broken under the weight of the ice - houses crushed beneath fallen trees) severely damaged roads (how would cobblestone/dirt roads fair under ice and snow?) that made things quite uncomfortable. Add a decade onto that, and I don't see how any civilization could last very long at all, unless they radically altered their society and basically lost interest in war.

[Marquis de Carabas]

If there's one thing I've learned from history, it's that hardship always makes people forget about fighting.

[cwalner]

Originally Posted by Dunstan

I love the Ice and Fire series because of its complex characters and elaborate plot. But I think you could go back and edit out all the references to the weird climate and not affect the books that much -- it just seems like an idea that's there to be "cool" rather than a well-integrated and explored feature.

Yes and no.

I agree that that is the case .. so far.

I think the plot thread with the Others has not yet developed to a point where the implication of the long winter is fully established. However, the last piece of Jon's story ended with Stannis landing his fleet in the north and bringing Melisande with him to help defend the wall. This is where the whole Song of Ice and Fire is going to come into effect. Since Jon will be a PoV character in the next book, I think this plot is going to expand on that concept and the impact of the long winters, specifically how they relate to the Others, will finally be explored in more detail.

I think this is more of a case of something that GRRM intended to explore when the time was right, and we just have not gotten there yet.

[Madalch]

Originally Posted by IDB87

It was more the sheer cold (due to lack of electricity like you said),

The peasants just toss another log (or lump of peat) on the fire.

Quote:

general destruction (trees broken under the weight of the ice - houses crushed beneath fallen trees)

The peasants in Westeros know enough not to plant trees smack up against their houses.

Quote:

severely damaged roads (how would cobblestone/dirt roads fair under ice and snow?) that made things quite uncomfortable.

The pothole that is horribly destructive when you drive over it at 30 miles/hour is merely annoying when your horse casually walks around it.

If we have blowing snow or freezing rain, it's bad for me because I can neither drive to the grocery store nor get to my office. A peasant in Westeros doesn't need to do these things anyway. He walks to where he needs to go just as easily as he does in regular weather.

[IDB87]

Originally Posted by Madalch

The peasants just toss another log (or lump of peat) on the fire.

So then they should have massive lumber / peat operations and massive stores of said fuel, right? OR is that something you typically gather in a blizzard/zombie attack?

Quote:

The peasants in Westeros know enough not to plant trees smack up against their houses.

Fair enough.

Quote:

The pothole that is horribly destructive when you drive over it at 30 miles/hour is merely annoying when your horse casually walks around it.

I always manage to hit them too.

I was more stressing the idea that individual communities and cities would be completely isolated and cutoff from the rest of the world during such winters.

Quote:

A peasant in Westeros doesn't need to do these things anyway. He walks to where he needs to go just as easily as he does in regular weather.

I think there's a difference between walking down the road during the summer and trudging through two feet of snow during a winter. Are there no sled-dog teams? Why not?

I'm sorry if this is silly, but it's not my world

[IDB87]

Originally Posted by Dunstan

I've never understood the winters on Westeros to be ten-year-long ice storms. I just figured it was, well, winter.

Winters are typically hard enough by themselves. Adding in ice storms, hail, blizzards, Nor *Westers, and horribly low temperatures...it's just hard to fathom how the Seven Kingdoms exist as they are.

Besides, I always thought the more prominent the White Walkers are in the world, the worse the weather was and thought of the Starks' motto as more of a prophetic warning of doom rather than a weather report.

Quote:

In Dorne, it's probably not that big a deal. In the Reach and the Riverlands, they can maybe grow a few meager winter crops. In the North, it's fairly nasty: not continual ice-storm nasty, but bad enough that the population huddles up in places like Winterfell (which has hot springs) or the coastal towns.

If true, this begs the question: Why is the north still populated? For being a wasteland for 10 odd years at a time, you'd think the Northmen would migrate, or simply abandon their homes, rebuilding the wall in a little warmer climate.

Quote:

(And my rationalizing and fanwanking about the winters not being that bad fails me utterly when it comes to Beyond the Wall. It seems like it's borderline survival conditions there even in "summer," so how the wildlings manage to survive winters that long is pretty perplexing.)

There's a bit of lore in the beginning about how The wildlings got it on with the Others. Maybe that's why they seem to not care about the cold so much?

*shrug

But, rule of cool only works so much, like you said. In this instance, it just kinda sticks out in an odd way and doesn't really do much for me.

[Madalch]

Originally Posted by IDB87

If true, this begs the question: Why is the north still populated? For being a wasteland for 10 odd years at a time, you'd think the Northmen would migrate, or simply abandon their homes, rebuilding the wall in a little warmer climate.

Same reason that Canada, Norway, Sweden and Russia haven't been abandoned. There's land that can be used, even if it's hard when it gets cold. You set up your village so that you won't need to hike five miles twice a week for supplies. You put the outhouse close to the real one so that you won't get lost at night. You build with thick walls and make sure your woodshed is big.

If you try to move south, all the land there is already taken. If you slay the southerners and take over that area, you'll breed enough that in a few generations, some people will move back north to find land that's not already taken by their siblings and cousins.

[cwalner]

Originally Posted by IDB87

I was more stressing the idea that individual communities and cities would be completely isolated and cutoff from the rest of the world during such winters.

Except that during medieval times (or similar technology in a fantasy world) this is par for the course during the best of weather for a small farming village. Most people never travelled more than 10 miles from thier home thier entire life. The Spring faires were special events because it was the one time each year that villagers had a chance to trade for goods from the larger realm.

3 feet of snow was not neccesary to make them isolated and cut off from the rest of world.

[IDB87]

Originally Posted by Madalch

Same reason that Canada, Norway, Sweden and Russia haven't been abandoned. There's land that can be used, even if it's hard when it gets cold. You set up your village so that you won't need to hike five miles twice a week for supplies. You put the outhouse close to the real one so that you won't get lost at night. You build with thick walls and make sure your woodshed is big.

But what of the ZOMBIES?

Quote:

If you try to move south, all the land there is already taken. If you slay the southerners and take over that area, you'll breed enough that in a few generations, some people will move back north to find land that's not already taken by their siblings and cousins.

I think this would have been an interesting bit of backstory - that the Northmen routinely raided the southern lands because of 1) More food 2) More land 3) for fun.

[IDB87]

Originally Posted by cwalner

Except that during medieval times (or similar technology in a fantasy world) this is par for the course during the best of weather for a small farming village. Most people never travelled more than 10 miles from thier home thier entire life. The Spring faires were special events because it was the one time each year that villagers had a chance to trade for goods from the larger realm.

Oh, no doubt about it. They also buried their dead on the roofs under the snow and slept all season long.

But this is a typical 4/5 month season, not a decade. Things would be different is all.

[Madalch]

Originally Posted by IDB87

But what of the ZOMBIES?

The Conservatives? We elect them to parliament.

Quote:

I think this would have been an interesting bit of backstory - that the Northmen routinely raided the southern lands because of 1) More food 2) More land 3) for fun.

The wildlings and Iron Islanders do this frequently, or at least as frequently as they can given a) the Wall and b) the Greyjoys having lost their fleet and only surviving son to the Starks.

[IDB87]

Originally Posted by Madalch

The Conservatives? We elect them to parliament.

5 points.

Quote:

The wildlings and Iron Islanders do this frequently, or at least as frequently as they can given a) the Wall and b) the Greyjoys having lost their fleet and only surviving son to the Starks.

The Starks is who I was talking about, as they're on the continent proper.

I never understood why the Night's Watch goes out and hunts the Wildlings. They have a perfectly good gigantic piece of ice to stand on and plink arrows from...why are they so obsessed with the Wildlings?

Greyjoys? Eh. Smarmy rebels who rebel for the sake of rebelling. Raiders doesn't really come to mind.

[Madalch]

Originally Posted by IDB87

Greyjoys? Eh. Smarmy rebels who rebel for the sake of rebelling. Raiders doesn't really come to mind.

Have you even read the books?

[IDB87]

Originally Posted by Madalch

Have you even read the books?

Few years ago. I've been meaning to go back to them before Dance comes out.

And I didn't think I'd have to say it, but I am leading you on son.

[Madalch]

Originally Posted by IDB87

The Starks is who I was talking about, as they're on the continent proper.

They don't have a port. It's tough to go on a raid on a place that's five day's ride away, if you expect to get away without reinforcements catching you.

[Dunstan]

Originally Posted by IDB87

But what of the ZOMBIES?

The zombies are actually an advantage, as they provide additional fuel for your winter fires. In fact, some distillers use them to dry out their malt before making whisky, and the resulting flavor and aroma notes have proved quite popular.

[cwalner]

Originally Posted by Madalch

They don't have a port. It's tough to go on a raid on a place that's five day's ride away, if you expect to get away without reinforcements catching you.

A point, which was apparantly lost on one particular Greyjoy, to his ultimate peril.

[ZirconBlue]

The "Zombies" don't come every winter. They're already thought to be myth by the time the story opens.

[gumboot]

The whole long winter thing is my single biggest issue with Martin's work. I think it's made pretty clear in the books that when winter arrives, it can be pretty horrific, continually, for years on end (at least in the North). "Snow drift a hundred feet thick" I believe someone said at one point. "Children are born, and live and die, all in darkness".

The "Winter" as presented in the books, is pretty much a miniature ice age. Lasting years.

As it happens, we have a real-world example of what happens when a medieval feudal society suffers a bad winter. In the Spring of 1315AD, Europe began experiencing a chain of unseasonably wet and cold weather. Note that this wasn't a full blow all-year winter, but just a crappy and wet winter and summer. The same followed in 1316AD.

Well, I'll spare you the gory details, but suffice to say it didn't go too well for Medieval Europe. The 14th Century was a bad century, and it was the so-called "Great Famine" (the name might give it away) that kicked it all off.

Millions of people died. Millions. Parents murdered their own children so they wouldn't have to watch them starve. Cannibalism was rife. Towns and cities averaged a population loss of 10-25% - in many cases as high as the Black Death.

In Westeros we're expected to believe that a single medieval culture has conquered an entire vast continent while dealing with catastrophic weather of this scale on a regular basis.

It's just not even remotely plausible. There is absolutely no way, to begin with, that their primary source of food would be wheat; a food that originated in a hot dry climate and which is incredibly susceptible to cold and wet.

I can buy that in the south it's warm, and even the winters aren't too bad, and that these regions prosper. But what just doesn't ring true is the idea of anyone whatsoever living in the North, let alone above the wall. The entire north of the continent would be an empty wasteland.

[gumboot]

Originally Posted by Madalch

They don't have a port.

Yes they do. White Harbor.

Originally Posted by Madalch

It's tough to go on a raid on a place that's five day's ride away, if you expect to get away without reinforcements catching you.

Five days? Try five weeks. It's 600 miles just from Winterfell to the southern border of the Northern territories, and a further 900 or so miles from there to King's Landing.

[ZirconBlue]

Originally Posted by gumboot

"Snow drift a hundred feet thick" I believe someone said at one point. "Children are born, and live and die, all in darkness".

Those quotes are from old Nan, who I'm not sure is a reliable source of historical information. (And, I'm not sure they're actually in the books.)

[Mark6]

Originally Posted by ZirconBlue

Those quotes are from old Nan, who I'm not sure is a reliable source of historical information. (And, I'm not sure they're actually in the books.)

They are in the books. The dialog in HBO series usually follows dialog in the books word to word, except in completely new scenes (like Cersei and Jamie watching Jon Arryn's body -- that's added). But yes, it is pretty obvious that Old Nan is not a reliable source of historical information.

[AmandaM]

Originally Posted by IDB87

Third to last.

Dance with Dragons
The Winds of Winter
A Dream of Spring

Thank you!

[IDB87]

Originally Posted by Mark6

They are in the books. The dialog in HBO series usually follows dialog in the books word to word, except in completely new scenes (like Cersei and Jamie watching Jon Arryn's body -- that's added). But yes, it is pretty obvious that Old Nan is not a reliable source of historical information.

Why not? She's old enough to have lived when the first Walkers came around.

[ZirconBlue]

Originally Posted by IDB87

Why not? She's old enough to have lived when the first Walkers came around.

Because she's known to make up stories.

[IDB87]

Originally Posted by ZirconBlue

Because she's known to make up stories.

This is where I ask you which stories she made up

*eta

Because I don't honestly remember from the book whether someone said she makes up stories.

[ZirconBlue]

Originally Posted by IDB87

This is where I ask you which stories she made up

*eta

Because I don't honestly remember from the book whether someone said she makes up stories.

I can't reference any specific examples, but she was always telling stories to the kids. Some seem to be accurate; some seem to be false to the characters in the books, but not to the reader; and some appear to be completely false. It's noted that there are often discrepancies in the retelling of her stories.

[Mark6]

Several of Ned's relatives/recent ancestors were named Brandon; in Nan's stories she merges them all into one.

[SpitfireIX]

Originally Posted by Mark6

Considering that GRRM said on record that "Song of Ice and Fire" is inspired by War of the Roses, I am mystified why anyone is debating it.

I am not saying it is believable, but GRRM at least tried to address this problem. In some interview he said that irregular winters which last years and sometimes decades keep throwing back all technological advances. White Walkers too have a hand in that. If these winters were a little worse, technology would go into downward spiral and humans would become extinct.

Also not saying this is totally believable but another reason that technology might have stagnated is that formerly there was considerably more magic in the world, which might have reduced the pressure for technological advancement. And I wonder whether magic might have been used to help humans survive the long winters in the time before the books.

[Madalch]

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

Also not saying this is totally believable but another reason that technology might have stagnated is that formerly there was considerably more magic in the world, which might have reduced the pressure for technological advancement. And I wonder whether magic might have been used to help humans survive the long winters in the time before the books.

The magic that we've seen so far wouldn't be very useful in keeping food available in the winter. Unless the Others could make a frozen apple tree bear zombie fruit in the dead of winter, or followers of the fire-god could give the fiery breath of life to a frozen field.

[Roboramma]

Originally Posted by gumboot

As it happens, we have a real-world example of what happens when a medieval feudal society suffers a bad winter. In the Spring of 1315AD, Europe began experiencing a chain of unseasonably wet and cold weather. Note that this wasn't a full blow all-year winter, but just a crappy and wet winter and summer. The same followed in 1316AD.

Well, I'll spare you the gory details, but suffice to say it didn't go too well for Medieval Europe. The 14th Century was a bad century, and it was the so-called "Great Famine" (the name might give it away) that kicked it all off.

Millions of people died. Millions. Parents murdered their own children so they wouldn't have to watch them starve. Cannibalism was rife. Towns and cities averaged a population loss of 10-25% - in many cases as high as the Black Death.

There is one meaningful difference that I can see between the real world example and the fictional society, however: in the fictional society they know that such winters are to be expected. Perhaps they are accustomed to a very different way of surviving during winter than summer. It's also concievable that during the long summers they are able to stockpile stores of food to help survive the winters, particularly since they know that they'll need such stockpiles.

They may also, for instance, have a very efficient winter economy based on a diet and existence similar to the inuit.

None of this makes me think it's believable either, but it does suggest that they are likely to be better placed than was any real world society to survive such winters. And since we haven't actually seen a winter (actually I've only read the first two books so I don't know how much of winter is portrayed so far in the series) we don't know what sort of changes their society makes to cope with one.

[Vortigern99]

Originally Posted by Mark6

Considering that GRRM said on record that "Song of Ice and Fire" is inspired by War of the Roses, I am mystified why anyone is debating it.

With regard to Martin's supposed plagiarism, someone claimed that ASoIaF is "basically TWotR with zombies and dragons". I asked that poster to substantiate their claim with specific evidence from the books. No evidence has been forthcoming.

I will not argue that Martin got his inspiration from TWotR, among other historical events; as you say, the author himself has noted the inspiration. It's the claim that specific characters and events derive from TWotR on a 1:1 basis that I challenge. Hence the current discussion.