Australia to withdraw troops from Iraq by end of Year

[a_unique_person]

When the election is over and Mark Latham is voted in, which looks odds on at the moment.

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/20...939717163.html

Quote:

Opposition Leader Mark Latham has toughened his stand on bringing Australian troops out of Iraq, saying under Labor they would leave as soon as the new Iraqi government took power, even if asked to stay.

Mr Latham has been accused of playing into Osama bin Laden's hands and putting Australians in Iraq at risk with his proposed timetable to have Australian troops home in time for Christmas.

But Mr Latham remained adamant tonight, saying he believed Australia's obligations would end with the June 30 handover of power and defending Australia was Labor's top priority.

Asked if under Labor Australian troops would remain if the Iraqi government made a request, Mr Latham said: "We've got bigger priorities for the defence of Australia (than) having them have international obligations in that country."

Mr Latham said it was up to Australia to decide where its troops were positioned.

[Mr Manifesto]

Ross Cameron: "Osama Bin Laden is somewhere in Pakistan stroking his beard and celebrating the advent of Mark Latham".

No, the stroking began with the advent of the coalition occupation of Iraq.

Mind you, if Labor win the election and if they keep an election promise for once in their life, the US are going to have a fun time finding more coalition-of-the-willing to help clean up the mess in Iraq.

(Greens voter myself. Preferences can remind a major political party of the importance of keeping a promise.)

[Iconoclast]

Quote:

Originally posted by a_unique_person
When the election is over and Mark Latham is voted in, which looks odds on at the moment.

I think you're overestimating the power of Latham and Labor, I think Howard will be returned again with a large majority though the gap will narrow. Anyway, one of us will be bumping this thread after the election to prove which of us is a genius at reading the political climate.

[Zep]

Mark's a "good thing" at this stage. As long as Labor don't trip on the last few steps (they tend to do this), and Johnny keeps on playing the role of US lap-dog. Personally, I think Johnny is tiring and aging in the position, and Costello is nobody's favourite.

We'll see.

[epepke]

FWIW, here's hoping that it will be appropriate to withdraw all troops from Iraq by the end of the year.

[The Fool]

Quote:

Originally posted by Iconoclast
I think you're overestimating the power of Latham and Labor, I think Howard will be returned again with a large majority though the gap will narrow. Anyway, one of us will be bumping this thread after the election to prove which of us is a genius at reading the political climate.

Maybe I should pledge to run laps of parliament house naked if Latham wins?... My view is that Labor were looking for anyone but Crean to take over and that is precisely what they got.... I don't think he has the goods to be PM and I think Howard will get back in with a reduced but comfortable majority....I also doubt if he will ever retire or resign...He's a politician, they only give up power voluntarily when someone forces them to.

Quote:

Originally posted by The Fool

Maybe I should pledge to run laps of parliament house naked if Latham wins?... My view is that Labor were looking for anyone but Crean to take over and that is precisely what they got.... I don't think he has the goods to be PM and I think Howard will get back in with a reduced but comfortable majority....I also doubt if he will ever retire or resign...He's a politician, they only give up power voluntarily when soeone forces then to.

DO IT FOOL!!


(whoops... just a little deja vu ... whats with you streaking government buildings anyway?)

[a_unique_person]

Quote:

Originally posted by Iconoclast
I think you're overestimating the power of Latham and Labor, I think Howard will be returned again with a large majority though the gap will narrow. Anyway, one of us will be bumping this thread after the election to prove which of us is a genius at reading the political climate.

He hasn't actually got that much of a majority as it is, and is behind in the polls. Last election he won less of the vote than labor, but by concentrating on the marginal seats still won a majority in parliament. Plus, he is doing his best impression of a rabbit in the headlights at the moment.s

[Zep]

Quote:

Originally posted by The Fool

Maybe I should pledge to run laps of parliament house naked if Latham wins?... My view is that Labor were looking for anyone but Crean to take over and that is precisely what they got.... I don't think he has the goods to be PM and I think Howard will get back in with a reduced but comfortable majority....I also doubt if he will ever retire or resign...He's a politician, they only give up power voluntarily when someone forces them to.

Yep, Latham IS a bit blokey, isn't he. Like the suit is just borrowed for the day. He looks like he still has much to learn at that level of politics, although he is travelling well and keeping the mouth in check...for now. Still on training-wheels though.

Johnny's got a problem in that the electorate is warming to Latham like they never did to him. Sort of reminds him that he got in last time by playing the preferences and the piss-ordinary Opposition rather than any merits his side has.

I suspect it will be right down to the wire next time, actually. Meanwhile, I will book a spot in the Hotel Canberra so I shan't miss your sporting effort, should it become necessary!

[Mr Manifesto]

Quote:

Originally posted by Zep
Mark's a "good thing" at this stage. As long as Labor don't trip on the last few steps (they tend to do this), and Johnny keeps on playing the role of US lap-dog. Personally, I think Johnny is tiring and aging in the position, and Costello is nobody's favourite.

We'll see.

Two things I'm worried about:

Labor choking in goal (though, so far, so good)

Some major event giving Howard the election again. Remember, he was trailing in the polls until the planes hit the buildings in the US.

[Iconoclast]

Quote:

Originally posted by a_unique_person
When the election is over and Mark Latham is voted in, which looks odds on at the moment.

Quote:

Originally posted by Iconoclast
I think you're overestimating the power of Latham and Labor, I think Howard will be returned again with a large majority though the gap will narrow. Anyway, one of us will be bumping this thread after the election to prove which of us is a genius at reading the political climate.

I am so smart.
I am so smart.
S. M. R. T.
S. M. R. T.
I am so smart.

90 minutes after the polls closed it was obvious the coalition had again won in a landslide.

Currently the Coalition has 77 seats, Labor has 51, with 19 seats still undecided. Neither the Greens nor the Democrats have won any seats yet, 3 are held by independents.

[zenith-nadir]

Senior Labor official concedes defeat in Australian election - Sat, Oct 09, 2004

Quote:

SYDNEY (AFP) - A senior Labor party official conceded the opposition party has failed to unseat Prime Minister John Howard's conservative coalition in the general election. "We haven't won," said former opposition leader Kim Beazely, Labor's shadow defense minister. "The election's over, gone, finished," he said.

Howard Takes Substantial Lead in Australia - Sat, Oct 09, 2004

Quote:

SYDNEY, Australia - Australian Prime Minister John Howard's Liberal Party took a substantial lead over the opposition in nationwide elections Saturday,....Howard "clearly will be re-elected prime minister tonight at his fourth election," Finance Minister Nick Minchin said on Australian Broadcasting Corp. television.

Quote:

Originally posted by a_unique_person
When the election is over and Mark Latham is voted in, which looks odds on at the moment.

Funny how could the "all-knowing" a_u_p be so wrong about his own country....

[a_unique_person]

Quote:

Originally posted by zenith-nadir
Senior Labor official concedes defeat in Australian election - Sat, Oct 09, 2004
Howard Takes Substantial Lead in Australia - Sat, Oct 09, 2004 Funny how could the "all-knowing" a_u_p be so wrong about his own country....

I said 'based on the polls', forgive me for not updating my forecast for the past two week, Howard will piss it in.

As to the troops, Howard has made damn sure none of them are at much risk of being shot at. Let those yankees cop the bombs.

[Iconoclast]

This is quite amazing, the coalition will most likely end up with a larger majority than in the last election.

Currently the divisional results are:

Liberal 64 seats (last election 68)
Labor 47 seats (last election 65)
Nationals 12 seats (last election 13)
Undecided 24 seats

At this time, the AEC lists 11 marginal seats that will probably change hands as follows:

- Richmond from Nats to ALP
- Adelaide, Hindmarsh, and Paramatta from Libs to ALP
- Wakefield, Sterling, Hasluck, Bonner, Bass, Greenway and Braddon all going from ALP to the Libs.

[Mycroft]

Well, I can't say I know much about Australian politics, but given the quality of support recieved by Latham, I'm glad Howard won.

[Mr Manifesto]

Well, at least Zep can breath a sigh of relief now that the adulterous 'morals crusader' Ross Cameron will be relegated to MP's speech-writer.

[Mike B.]

Since Howard seems about as popular as cancer among the Australian posters on this forum, is there anyone here to give a post-mortem on why he did so well?

Some of the coverage I have seen has stressed the relatively strong performance of the Australian economy as being the deciding factor.

Or is Howard simply more popular than some might want to accept?

I don't know. Everytime I see Howard's name on here it is usually followed by some reference to him either licking/kissing Bush's arse.

BTW,

Has Latham been deposed as Labor's leader? To go from 65 seats to 47 seems piss poor against a three time PM.

[Mr Manifesto]

Quote:

Originally posted by Mike B.
Since Howard seems about as popular as cancer among the Australian posters on this forum, is there anyone here to give a post-mortem on why he did so well?

Some of the coverage I have seen has stressed the relatively strong performance of the Australian economy as being the deciding factor.

Or is Howard simply more popular than some might want to accept?

I don't know. Everytime I see Howard's name on here it is usually followed by some reference to him either licking/kissing Bush's arse.

BTW,

Has Latham been deposed as Labor's leader? To go from 65 seats to 47 seems piss poor against a three time PM.

It was basically a 'hip pocket' election. The economy's going well, under previous labor government leader Paul Keating the interest rates for housing were sky-high (something ridiculous like 19%, from memory), and the Liberal party ran a campaign saying that interest rates would go up under Labor despite all evidence to suggest that no matter who was in power, the interest rates would stay the same. Whether Latham goes or not remains to be seen. I certainly wouldn't vote for Labor with Latham as leader, too much like "Liberals Lite".

A good summary is here, including the reminder that the polls said it was 50-50 not long before the election. Say what you like about posters in this forum, at least we don't call elections for a living!

For those who like their analysis bite-sized, here's a summary:

Quote:

Seven positives for John Howard

1. The economy is strong and John Howard remained on message throughout.

2. The Government's negative advertising campaign was far more effective.

3. The Government pork-barrelled the marginals and key constituencies well and used that $125,000 postal allowance far more professionally.

4. The government had more to spend, partly due to incumbency and because business dug deeper than usual because they were worried about union mayhem with wall to wall Labor governments.

5. Howard promoted the team effectively whereas Latham was too much of a one man band.

6. Peter Costello was seen as a positive for the Government so Labor promoted one of the Liberal strengths.

7. Tony Abbott and more than $10 billion almost made health a positive for the Government.

Seven negatives for Labor

1. Labor failed to prove its economic credentials and Latham should have talked more about economic management and reform.

2. Labor's advertising and campaigning was too positive, even though Howard was constantly called dishonest.

3. The Labor policies were too complex, came too late and created too many losers.

4. The media was clearly anti-Labor with the Murdoch press leading the way and not a single major daily paper endorsing Mark Latham.

5. Latham carried too much baggage from Liverpool and his crude and violent past and needed some life experience outside Labor politics to broaden his appeal.

6. Baggage from the Labor states (Energex, Vic tollroad and Carr financial blowouts) spilled over into the federal arena.

7. Latham had a bad last week with forests, the Medicare Gold blowout and even that election day picture of their man aggressively shaping up to the PM sent the wrong message.

The Greens did worse than expected. There's a post-mortem here, though it doesn't seem to answer the crucial question, why. I don't go for 'policies are too kooky', either. That's the sort of answer I'd expect from a hack for News Ltd. If the Greens and the Dems weren't 'kooky' before, why are they now?

I can understand the Democrats losing tonnes of votes. They sold out to the Liberal party on issues such as the GST, and when you're voter base are the left-wing libertarians, that's something of a no-no.

For more post-mortem than a sane man can stand, click here. When it comes to political opinion, it's hard to beat Crikey!.com. Don't worry, they're bi-partisan.

[a_unique_person]

Quote:

Originally posted by Mike B.
Since Howard seems about as popular as cancer among the Australian posters on this forum, is there anyone here to give a post-mortem on why he did so well?

Some of the coverage I have seen has stressed the relatively strong performance of the Australian economy as being the deciding factor.

Or is Howard simply more popular than some might want to accept?

I don't know. Everytime I see Howard's name on here it is usually followed by some reference to him either licking/kissing Bush's arse.

BTW,

Has Latham been deposed as Labor's leader? To go from 65 seats to 47 seems piss poor against a three time PM.

I was just listening to a former leader of the same party, and Prime Minister of Australia, Malcolm Fraser, accusing Howard of doing exactly that. Howard, when told by the USA to jump, asks how high. When the Iraq war was being planned, the Australian military was in their from the early stages.

He won on pure simple greed. He has taxed Australians so much that he had $20billion to play with. Rather than giving it back as tax cuts, it was divided up between the various groups he felt he needed to win the election, lumbering Australia with unsustainable policies that his successors will have to deal with. When it comes to truth, the average swinging voter with a mortgage and large screen TV doesn't give a damn, he just wants the interest rates to stay low.

Thats democracy, next election will be interesting when the unsustainability of the policies will be apparent.

[Iconoclast]

Quote:

Originally posted by a_unique_person
When it comes to truth, the average swinging voter with a mortgage and large screen TV doesn't give a damn, he just wants the interest rates to stay low.

I think the interst rate angle was the single most important issue to Australians. A large proportion of Australian families will be screwed if interest rates move upwards by even two points. The dollar amount of the interest portion of the average mortgage is now higher than it was back when rates were at eighteen percent.

[Mycroft]

What, don't Australians have the option of fixed rate mortgages?

[Iconoclast]

Also, Howard was very fortunate in that not a single Australian soldier was killed during the war on Iraq, so he hasn't experienced the backlash that Bush and Blair have had to endure.

[Iconoclast]

Quote:

Originally posted by Mycroft
What, don't Australians have the option of fixed rate mortgages?

Of course we do, but fixed rate loans are three-quarters of a point higher than variable rates, and the fixed rate period is limited to 5(?) years.

[Mycroft]

Quote:

Originally posted by Iconoclast
Of course we do, but fixed rate loans are three-quarters of a point higher than variable rates, and the fixed rate period is limited to 5(?) years.

Really?

In the States we call it an adjustable rate even when it is fixed for five years. While we have mortgages that are adjustable from day one, they're unpopular, and mortgages that are fixed for the entire 30 years are quite common.

Right now a 30 year fixed could be had for about 5.625%, with a 5 year fixed for about 5.125%.

[a_unique_person]

That is because you are paying US$. Who knows where the AUS$ will be in thirty years time. Despite Droopers protests, there are advantages to paying things off in US$. A thirty year loan fixed at 5.625% would be rushed.

[The Fool]

Unlike all the commies that post here from Australia, I can give you the answer as to why Johnny won.


Drumroll please....

No viable alternative.

The Australian labor party should be taken outside and shot if they think that someone like Latham would ever be elected prime minister alongside someone like Crean as treasurer....please, lets get real here, they are the biggest pair of mugs I have ever seen put up by a major party in a looooong time.... Latham has had 10 minutes experience in local government deciding garbage collection policies and Crean has terminal Union breath.

.
Anyone on this board interested in leading your own Major political party? Apply here.

[Drooper]

Quote:

Originally posted by a_unique_person
That is because you are paying US$. Who knows where the AUS$ will be in thirty years time. Despite Droopers protests, there are advantages to paying things off in US$. A thirty year loan fixed at 5.625% would be rushed.

You are a complete ignoramous. Stick to your IT help desk or whatever it is you know about.

[a_unique_person]

Quote:

Originally posted by Drooper
You are a complete ignoramous. Stick to your IT help desk or whatever it is you know about.

I can put an IMHO at the end of it if you want, but your rebuttal is a bit light on for detail. Australia has been getting the bulk of it's funds from overseas, we are buy a long way a net debtor country. People have tried borrowing Swiss Francs directly, for example, and lost fortunes.

[a_unique_person]

Quote:

Originally posted by The Fool
Unlike all the commies that post here from Australia, I can give you the answer as to why Johnny won.


Drumroll please....

No viable alternative.

The Australian labor party should be taken outside and shot if they think that someone like Latham would ever be elected prime minister alongside someone like Crean as treasurer....please, lets get real here, they are the biggest pair of mugs I have ever seen put up by a major party in a looooong time.... Latham has had 10 minutes experience in local government deciding garbage collection policies and Crean has terminal Union breath.

.
Anyone on this board interested in leading your own Major political party? Apply here.

I always suspected you were a closet liberal. Are you serious that Latham and Crean, for all their faults, are actually any worse than Howard and Costello?

As to the bagful of dollars that was promised, it is already going to be wound back, more 'core' and 'non core' promises.

[Kodiak]

Quote:

Originally posted by a_unique_person
I always suspected you were a closet liberal.

"Suspected"? I've known it from day one...

[Mr Manifesto]

Quote:

Originally posted by Kodiak
"Suspected"? I've known it from day one...

No, you dimwith, the Liberal party is Australias conser...

Oh, wait, you know.

Nevermind.

[Kodiak]

Quote:

Originally posted by Mr Manifesto
No, you dimwith, the Liberal party is Australias conser...

Oh, wait, you know.

Nevermind.

I almost got you...

[a_unique_person]

Quote:

Originally posted by Drooper
You are a complete ignoramous. Stick to your IT help desk or whatever it is you know about.

http://www.commbank.com.au/personal/...Comparison.asp

no 30 year loans offered. Max of 15, as I suspected.