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Kopji · 24th May 2011, 07:35 PM

Quote:

...In a special House election carefully watched by national political strategists, Democrat Kathy Hochul won what had been a Republican seat Tuesday in upstate New York, lifting Democrats’ hopes for the 2012 campaign.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43161820...-capitol_hill/

This seems important.

Unabogie · 24th May 2011, 07:42 PM

It was all about the Ryan plan to abolish Medicare. Corwin voted for it. She went down.

Americans love their universal health care (as they should).

Thunder · 24th May 2011, 07:44 PM

wow, the seat has been in GOP hands for 40 years.

and now the Democrats have it. and now the House is one seat closer to having a Democrat majority again.

leftysergeant · 24th May 2011, 07:56 PM

Send campaign donations to a Democrat you like and a teabagger. That ought to teach them.

Kopji · 24th May 2011, 08:00 PM

Quote:

With about 90 percent of the precincts reporting, Hochul had 48 percent and Corwin 42 percent. Also on the ballot was a Democrat-turned-Tea Party candidate, Jack Davis, who polled 9 percent.

So we are not to pay any attention to this says Republican leadership. Humm.

Still, this seems like it must be something of a disappointment, losing a traditionally Republican seat. Pesky sex scandals.

Thunder · 24th May 2011, 08:05 PM

Originally Posted by leftysergeant

Send campaign donations to a Democrat you like and a teabagger. That ought to teach them.

totally.

Kopji · 24th May 2011, 08:08 PM

To my thinking, the key to understaning would be what happened to the Davis numbers. Was he on the way down to 9% or going up, pulling votes from Corwin? If going up and drawing votes from the more moderate positioned Corwin - I'd agree with the Republicans. But if votes were shifting to Corwin from Davis - that's gotta be bad. Says that Corwin was not moderate enough fast enough to win.

If both Corwin and Davis were dropping, well, that's not rocket science.

Kopji · 24th May 2011, 08:20 PM

So, a 3 way race is more complex, but not all that complex.
Davis the Tea Party candidate dropped dramatically but even a more moderately positioned Corwin could not pick them up.

Quote:

Kathy Hochul (D) – 42 (+11)
Jane Corwin (R) – 38 (+2)
Jack Davis (Tea) – 12 (-9)
Ian Murphy (G) – 1 (no change)

...So most of Davis’ support has moved not to Corwin, but to Hochul. Hochul’s favorable rating is 55%, with Corwin at 43% (Davis is down to 28%). So in this red district, Hochul is still holding a lead with just days to go, with an edge over independents and holding more of her own party than Corwin.

And there’s evidence in the poll that the focus on Medicare is really helping her. Accoding to the poll, 21% of likely voters say Medicare is the most important issue in the race. And 74% of those voters favor Hochul.

http://news.firedoglake.com/2011/05/...s-davis-fades/

tyr_13 · 24th May 2011, 08:47 PM

There were some fine ads running, I assure you. Most of the anti-Hochul ones were desperately trying to tie her to Pelosi. That didn't scare the powerful 'old coot' vote in Buffalo as much as 'worthless medicade'.

Puppycow · 24th May 2011, 08:47 PM

Quote:

...So most of Davis’ support has moved not to Corwin, but to Hochul.

That may be true, but it could also be that moderate Corwin supporters and undecideds moved to Hotchul and Davis’ support moved to Corwin. Or a combination of the two.

Kopji · 24th May 2011, 09:53 PM

Originally Posted by Puppycow

That may be true, but it could also be that moderate Corwin supporters and undecideds moved to Hotchul and Davis’ support moved to Corwin. Or a combination of the two.

I suppose I disagree, why would Davis's supporters move to Corwin, who represented much the same thing?
That's why I looked to Davis's numbers. I presume that being the Tea Party guy he would represent the 'change' being promoted in medical care. His numbers dropped dramatically but did not show up in Corwin. Corwin went up a little, but not enough. Maybe that was her moderates leaving...

Puppycow · 25th May 2011, 01:55 AM

Originally Posted by Kopji

I suppose I disagree, why would Davis's supporters move to Corwin, who represented much the same thing?
That's why I looked to Davis's numbers. I presume that being the Tea Party guy he would represent the 'change' being promoted in medical care. His numbers dropped dramatically but did not show up in Corwin. Corwin went up a little, but not enough. Maybe that was her moderates leaving...

Because voters vote strategically. The polls showed that Davis wasn't going to win, and that the democrat might win, so they switched their vote to the establishment republican.

Lurker · 25th May 2011, 04:43 AM

I predict FoxNews will totally ignore this event. Now, if the Republican had won then they would be promoting it as a bellweather for 2012.

BenBurch · 25th May 2011, 06:12 AM

Originally Posted by leftysergeant

Send campaign donations to a Democrat you like and a teabagger. That ought to teach them.

Insert wicked, evil laugh here.

Tricky · 25th May 2011, 06:15 AM

Originally Posted by Lurker

I predict FoxNews will totally ignore this event. Now, if the Republican had won then they would be promoting it as a bellweather for 2012.

My guess is that they will use it as a scary story about how underhanded Dem campaigning is to try to scare old people with Medicare. Or they may harp on the fact that the votes are being (already) contested. But some sort of spin is guaranteed.

gnome · 25th May 2011, 07:12 AM

A problem is that the Republicans haven't even tried (as far as I can tell) to argue how senior citizens are to cope if the voucher isn't for enough money. Not even a token "the competition for voucher money will drive prices down" promise. So it basically sounds like, "Hey Grandpa, screw you!".

tyr_13 · 25th May 2011, 07:20 AM

Originally Posted by gnome

A problem is that the Republicans haven't even tried (as far as I can tell) to argue how senior citizens are to cope if the voucher isn't for enough money. Not even a token "the competition for voucher money will drive prices down" promise. So it basically sounds like, "Hey Grandpa, screw you!".

They can't think of a way to cope. I'm surprised they haven't just come up with a way out there lie about how it would work.

Emet · 25th May 2011, 07:45 AM

Originally Posted by Tricky

My guess is that they will use it as a scary story about how underhanded Dem campaigning is to try to scare old people with Medicare. Or they may harp on the fact that the votes are being (already) contested. But some sort of spin is guaranteed.

Quote:

Dem House Win Kills Entitlement Reform Hopes
By Chris Stirewalt
Published May 25, 2011
FoxNews.com
(...)
The 26th District, which covers suburban Buffalo and Rochester, is loaded with elderly voters. That’s what makes it so Republican, but also why it is fertile territory for “Mediscare” tactics.”

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011...-reform-hopes/

I Am The Scum · 25th May 2011, 09:17 AM

Have fun with that million bucks, Tricky!

Alferd_Packer · 25th May 2011, 09:22 AM

Originally Posted by Thunder

wow, the seat has been in GOP hands for 40 years.

and now the Democrats have it. and now the House is one seat closer to having a Democrat majority again.

I understand that the seat is going to get redistricted out of existance next term.

Alferd_Packer · 25th May 2011, 09:27 AM

Originally Posted by gnome

A problem is that the Republicans haven't even tried (as far as I can tell) to argue how senior citizens are to cope if the voucher isn't for enough money. Not even a token "the competition for voucher money will drive prices down" promise. So it basically sounds like, "Hey Grandpa, screw you!".

I think a more important key thing is that Grampa realized that even though he is over 55 and exempt from the vouchers, his kids and grandkids will be having to deal with them. Gramps isn't stupid. He likes doing things for his grandkids.

Dr. Keith · 25th May 2011, 09:35 AM

Originally Posted by gnome

A problem is that the Republicans haven't even tried (as far as I can tell) to argue how senior citizens are to cope if the voucher isn't for enough money. Not even a token "the competition for voucher money will drive prices down" promise. So it basically sounds like, "Hey Grandpa, screw you!".

Only if Grandpa is under 55. The Ryan plan doesn't effect current retirees. It is the rest of us who are going to be screwed when we become grandpa.

BenBurch · 25th May 2011, 10:03 AM

Originally Posted by Tricky

My guess is that they will use it as a scary story about how underhanded Dem campaigning is to try to scare old people with Medicare. Or they may harp on the fact that the votes are being (already) contested. But some sort of spin is guaranteed.

Yes, they are doing that. RNC spokeperson I heard on the radio says that the Democrat falsely presented the GOP stand on Medicare, and that the GOP are trying to rescue Medicare.

Somehow "We had to destroy the village to save it." comes to mind...

JoeTheJuggler · 25th May 2011, 12:36 PM

Originally Posted by Thunder

wow, the seat has been in GOP hands for 40 years.

Sorry to run off topic, but this is where dead metaphors can be funny. I'm picturing people holding their hands on their butts. . . .

Back on topic, so is this a sign of things to come? I think a backlash against the Tea Party is expected, but how far might the pendulum swing? (Just because I had to mix dead metaphors too!)

Kopji · 25th May 2011, 07:20 PM

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Because voters vote strategically. The polls showed that Davis wasn't going to win, and that the democrat might win, so they switched their vote to the establishment republican.

LOL, I guess I'm more cynical about American voters than that. Voters seem more like consumers that respond to good marketing rather than deep reasoning. But for the sake of argument...

So at risk of creating a straw man (I'm trying to understand where the voters went is all) is the proposed trend kind of a domino effect where the Tea Party shifts to Republican, but the Republicans are shifting Democrat? If that were the case the Republican problem is far worse - moderates would be flocking from the party in numbers greater than they were getting from Tea Party converts.

From my pov, the key seems to be to watch the Tea Party numbers. Where did the other 7% of Tea Party votes go? If they just vanished, the Republican and Democrat % numbers would have increased by about equal amounts. Republicans only 'found' 2% of the 9% Tea Party drop though. Democrats 'found' 7% and also won.

***

Aside - I've added some percents and explanations to the earlier posted numbers to make them a little more clear. (Sorry about the bias of the political linky sites, the Republican sites are a little quiet.) I liked the site name.

Trend before the election about the 21st:
Kathy Hochul (D) – 42% (Up 11%) Ended up at about 48%
Jane Corwin (R) – 38% (Up 2%) Ended up at about 42%
Jack Davis (Tea) – 12% (Down 9%) Not sure what he ended up at
Ian Murphy (G) – 1% (no change) I'm going to presume that the Greens pull from otherwise Democrat votes

I can understand a Republican point of view that would add Davis's 12% to Corwin's 42% and think that the sum was greater than Hochul's 48%.

That seems to ignore the downward trend though, not a reflection of strong voter support. I might even argue that the presence of Davis made the Republican failure to win, appear to be less of a debacle than it was.

I don't see a strategic voter shift to Corwin from Davis. If the shift was really from Corwin to Hochul, that seems almost like a Republican disaster. But I'd disagree with that and accept the simpler explanation that Tea Party votes left and Republicans did not pick them up.

Teemu · 26th May 2011, 04:48 AM

This seems to have been a relatively low voter turnout election. 102k turnout compared to 205k turnout in 2010 and 280k in 2008. On the other hand Senate special election in Massachusetts 2010, which Scott Brown won, had slightly higher turnout than previous mid-term Senate election in that state.

Thunder · 26th May 2011, 06:44 AM

This is why I LOVE the Herbal Tea-Party.

24th May 2011, 07:35 PM	#1
Kopji Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Mogollon Rim Posts: 7,710	Shoo-in Republican loses over Tea Party Quote: ...In a special House election carefully watched by national political strategists, Democrat Kathy Hochul won what had been a Republican seat Tuesday in upstate New York, lifting Democrats’ hopes for the 2012 campaign. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43161820...-capitol_hill/ This seems important.

24th May 2011, 07:56 PM	#4
leftysergeant Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Spanaway WA Posts: 18,614	Send campaign donations to a Democrat you like and a teabagger. That ought to teach them.
	__________________ No civilization ever collapsed because the poor had too much to eat.

24th May 2011, 08:47 PM	#9
tyr_13 Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Falconer, NY Posts: 9,790	There were some fine ads running, I assure you. Most of the anti-Hochul ones were desperately trying to tie her to Pelosi. That didn't scare the powerful 'old coot' vote in Buffalo as much as 'worthless medicade'.
	__________________ Circled nothing is still nothing. "Nothing will stop the U.S. from being a world leader, not even a handful of adults who want their kids to take science lessons from a book that mentions unicorns six times." -UNLoVedRebel Mumpsimus: a stubborn person who insists on making an error in spite of being shown that it is wrong

24th May 2011, 08:47 PM	#10
Puppycow Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Japan Posts: 16,037	Quote: ...So most of Davis’ support has moved not to Corwin, but to Hochul. That may be true, but it could also be that moderate Corwin supporters and undecideds moved to Hotchul and Davis’ support moved to Corwin. Or a combination of the two.
	__________________ “Some men are born mediocre, some men achieve mediocrity, and some men have mediocrity thrust upon them. With Major Major it had been all three.” ― Joseph Heller, Catch-22 Last edited by Puppycow; 24th May 2011 at 08:48 PM.

25th May 2011, 01:55 AM	#12
Puppycow Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Japan Posts: 16,037	Originally Posted by Kopji I suppose I disagree, why would Davis's supporters move to Corwin, who represented much the same thing? That's why I looked to Davis's numbers. I presume that being the Tea Party guy he would represent the 'change' being promoted in medical care. His numbers dropped dramatically but did not show up in Corwin. Corwin went up a little, but not enough. Maybe that was her moderates leaving... Because voters vote strategically. The polls showed that Davis wasn't going to win, and that the democrat might win, so they switched their vote to the establishment republican.
	__________________ “Some men are born mediocre, some men achieve mediocrity, and some men have mediocrity thrust upon them. With Major Major it had been all three.” ― Joseph Heller, Catch-22

24th May 2011, 07:42 PM	#2
Unabogie Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Portland, OR Posts: 5,921	It was all about the Ryan plan to abolish Medicare. Corwin voted for it. She went down. Americans love their universal health care (as they should).

24th May 2011, 07:44 PM	#3
Thunder Banned Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Queens Posts: 34,947	wow, the seat has been in GOP hands for 40 years. and now the Democrats have it. and now the House is one seat closer to having a Democrat majority again.

24th May 2011, 08:00 PM	#5
Kopji Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Mogollon Rim Posts: 7,710	Quote: With about 90 percent of the precincts reporting, Hochul had 48 percent and Corwin 42 percent. Also on the ballot was a Democrat-turned-Tea Party candidate, Jack Davis, who polled 9 percent. So we are not to pay any attention to this says Republican leadership. Humm. Still, this seems like it must be something of a disappointment, losing a traditionally Republican seat. Pesky sex scandals.

24th May 2011, 08:05 PM	#6
Thunder Banned Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Queens Posts: 34,947	Originally Posted by leftysergeant Send campaign donations to a Democrat you like and a teabagger. That ought to teach them. totally.

24th May 2011, 08:08 PM	#7
Kopji Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Mogollon Rim Posts: 7,710	To my thinking, the key to understaning would be what happened to the Davis numbers. Was he on the way down to 9% or going up, pulling votes from Corwin? If going up and drawing votes from the more moderate positioned Corwin - I'd agree with the Republicans. But if votes were shifting to Corwin from Davis - that's gotta be bad. Says that Corwin was not moderate enough fast enough to win. If both Corwin and Davis were dropping, well, that's not rocket science.

24th May 2011, 08:20 PM	#8
Kopji Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Mogollon Rim Posts: 7,710	So, a 3 way race is more complex, but not all that complex. Davis the Tea Party candidate dropped dramatically but even a more moderately positioned Corwin could not pick them up. Quote: Kathy Hochul (D) – 42 (+11) Jane Corwin (R) – 38 (+2) Jack Davis (Tea) – 12 (-9) Ian Murphy (G) – 1 (no change) ...So most of Davis’ support has moved not to Corwin, but to Hochul. Hochul’s favorable rating is 55%, with Corwin at 43% (Davis is down to 28%). So in this red district, Hochul is still holding a lead with just days to go, with an edge over independents and holding more of her own party than Corwin. And there’s evidence in the poll that the focus on Medicare is really helping her. Accoding to the poll, 21% of likely voters say Medicare is the most important issue in the race. And 74% of those voters favor Hochul. http://news.firedoglake.com/2011/05/...s-davis-fades/

24th May 2011, 09:53 PM	#11
Kopji Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Mogollon Rim Posts: 7,710	Originally Posted by Puppycow That may be true, but it could also be that moderate Corwin supporters and undecideds moved to Hotchul and Davis’ support moved to Corwin. Or a combination of the two. I suppose I disagree, why would Davis's supporters move to Corwin, who represented much the same thing? That's why I looked to Davis's numbers. I presume that being the Tea Party guy he would represent the 'change' being promoted in medical care. His numbers dropped dramatically but did not show up in Corwin. Corwin went up a little, but not enough. Maybe that was her moderates leaving...

25th May 2011, 04:43 AM	#13
Lurker Illuminator Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 4,187	I predict FoxNews will totally ignore this event. Now, if the Republican had won then they would be promoting it as a bellweather for 2012.
Lurker Illuminator Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 4,187	__________________ Wields +5 Sword of Dispel Ignorance

25th May 2011, 06:12 AM	#14
BenBurch Gatekeeper of The Left Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: The Universe 35.2 ms ahead of this one. Posts: 32,500	Originally Posted by leftysergeant Send campaign donations to a Democrat you like and a teabagger. That ought to teach them. Insert wicked, evil laugh here.
	__________________ Are you IN? Join the IN crowd now!

25th May 2011, 06:15 AM	#15
Tricky Briefly immortal Moderator Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: The Group W bench Posts: 42,406	Originally Posted by Lurker I predict FoxNews will totally ignore this event. Now, if the Republican had won then they would be promoting it as a bellweather for 2012. My guess is that they will use it as a scary story about how underhanded Dem campaigning is to try to scare old people with Medicare. Or they may harp on the fact that the votes are being (already) contested. But some sort of spin is guaranteed.

25th May 2011, 07:12 AM	#16
gnome Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 9,880	A problem is that the Republicans haven't even tried (as far as I can tell) to argue how senior citizens are to cope if the voucher isn't for enough money. Not even a token "the competition for voucher money will drive prices down" promise. So it basically sounds like, "Hey Grandpa, screw you!".
gnome Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 9,880	__________________

25th May 2011, 07:20 AM	#17
tyr_13 Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Falconer, NY Posts: 9,790	Originally Posted by gnome A problem is that the Republicans haven't even tried (as far as I can tell) to argue how senior citizens are to cope if the voucher isn't for enough money. Not even a token "the competition for voucher money will drive prices down" promise. So it basically sounds like, "Hey Grandpa, screw you!". They can't think of a way to cope. I'm surprised they haven't just come up with a way out there lie about how it would work.
	__________________ Circled nothing is still nothing. "Nothing will stop the U.S. from being a world leader, not even a handful of adults who want their kids to take science lessons from a book that mentions unicorns six times." -UNLoVedRebel Mumpsimus: a stubborn person who insists on making an error in spite of being shown that it is wrong

25th May 2011, 07:45 AM	#18
Emet Illuminator Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 3,395	Originally Posted by Tricky My guess is that they will use it as a scary story about how underhanded Dem campaigning is to try to scare old people with Medicare. Or they may harp on the fact that the votes are being (already) contested. But some sort of spin is guaranteed. Quote: Dem House Win Kills Entitlement Reform Hopes By Chris Stirewalt Published May 25, 2011 FoxNews.com (...) The 26th District, which covers suburban Buffalo and Rochester, is loaded with elderly voters. That’s what makes it so Republican, but also why it is fertile territory for “Mediscare” tactics.” http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011...-reform-hopes/
Emet Illuminator Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 3,395

25th May 2011, 09:17 AM	#19
I Am The Scum Graduate Poster Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,549	Have fun with that million bucks, Tricky!

25th May 2011, 09:22 AM	#20
Alferd_Packer Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 7,279	Originally Posted by Thunder wow, the seat has been in GOP hands for 40 years. and now the Democrats have it. and now the House is one seat closer to having a Democrat majority again. I understand that the seat is going to get redistricted out of existance next term.
	__________________ No laws of physics were broken in the writing of this post

25th May 2011, 09:27 AM	#21
Alferd_Packer Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 7,279	Originally Posted by gnome A problem is that the Republicans haven't even tried (as far as I can tell) to argue how senior citizens are to cope if the voucher isn't for enough money. Not even a token "the competition for voucher money will drive prices down" promise. So it basically sounds like, "Hey Grandpa, screw you!". I think a more important key thing is that Grampa realized that even though he is over 55 and exempt from the vouchers, his kids and grandkids will be having to deal with them. Gramps isn't stupid. He likes doing things for his grandkids.
	__________________ No laws of physics were broken in the writing of this post

25th May 2011, 09:35 AM	#22
Dr. Keith Not a doctor. Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Texas Posts: 3,466	Originally Posted by gnome A problem is that the Republicans haven't even tried (as far as I can tell) to argue how senior citizens are to cope if the voucher isn't for enough money. Not even a token "the competition for voucher money will drive prices down" promise. So it basically sounds like, "Hey Grandpa, screw you!". Only if Grandpa is under 55. The Ryan plan doesn't effect current retirees. It is the rest of us who are going to be screwed when we become grandpa.
	__________________ shift key currently inoperative. sorry for the inconvenience. -+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- Jonah Baldwin: Talk to her, dad. She's a doctor. Sam Baldwin: Of what? Her first name could be Doctor. - Sleepless in Seattle

25th May 2011, 10:03 AM	#23
BenBurch Gatekeeper of The Left Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: The Universe 35.2 ms ahead of this one. Posts: 32,500	Originally Posted by Tricky My guess is that they will use it as a scary story about how underhanded Dem campaigning is to try to scare old people with Medicare. Or they may harp on the fact that the votes are being (already) contested. But some sort of spin is guaranteed. Yes, they are doing that. RNC spokeperson I heard on the radio says that the Democrat falsely presented the GOP stand on Medicare, and that the GOP are trying to rescue Medicare. Somehow "We had to destroy the village to save it." comes to mind...
	__________________ Are you IN? Join the IN crowd now!

25th May 2011, 12:36 PM	#24
JoeTheJuggler Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: St. Louis Posts: 27,173	Originally Posted by Thunder wow, the seat has been in GOP hands for 40 years. Sorry to run off topic, but this is where dead metaphors can be funny. I'm picturing people holding their hands on their butts. . . . Back on topic, so is this a sign of things to come? I think a backlash against the Tea Party is expected, but how far might the pendulum swing? (Just because I had to mix dead metaphors too!)
	__________________ "That is a very graphic analogy which aids understanding wonderfully while being, strictly speaking, wrong in every possible way." —Ponder Stibbons

25th May 2011, 07:20 PM	#25
Kopji Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Mogollon Rim Posts: 7,710	Originally Posted by Puppycow Because voters vote strategically. The polls showed that Davis wasn't going to win, and that the democrat might win, so they switched their vote to the establishment republican. LOL, I guess I'm more cynical about American voters than that. Voters seem more like consumers that respond to good marketing rather than deep reasoning. But for the sake of argument... So at risk of creating a straw man (I'm trying to understand where the voters went is all) is the proposed trend kind of a domino effect where the Tea Party shifts to Republican, but the Republicans are shifting Democrat? If that were the case the Republican problem is far worse - moderates would be flocking from the party in numbers greater than they were getting from Tea Party converts. From my pov, the key seems to be to watch the Tea Party numbers. Where did the other 7% of Tea Party votes go? If they just vanished, the Republican and Democrat % numbers would have increased by about equal amounts. Republicans only 'found' 2% of the 9% Tea Party drop though. Democrats 'found' 7% and also won. *** Aside - I've added some percents and explanations to the earlier posted numbers to make them a little more clear. (Sorry about the bias of the political linky sites, the Republican sites are a little quiet.) I liked the site name. Trend before the election about the 21st: Kathy Hochul (D) – 42% (Up 11%) Ended up at about 48% Jane Corwin (R) – 38% (Up 2%) Ended up at about 42% Jack Davis (Tea) – 12% (Down 9%) Not sure what he ended up at Ian Murphy (G) – 1% (no change) I'm going to presume that the Greens pull from otherwise Democrat votes I can understand a Republican point of view that would add Davis's 12% to Corwin's 42% and think that the sum was greater than Hochul's 48%. That seems to ignore the downward trend though, not a reflection of strong voter support. I might even argue that the presence of Davis made the Republican failure to win, appear to be less of a debacle than it was. I don't see a strategic voter shift to Corwin from Davis. If the shift was really from Corwin to Hochul, that seems almost like a Republican disaster. But I'd disagree with that and accept the simpler explanation that Tea Party votes left and Republicans did not pick them up.

26th May 2011, 04:48 AM	#26
Teemu Scholar Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 115	This seems to have been a relatively low voter turnout election. 102k turnout compared to 205k turnout in 2010 and 280k in 2008. On the other hand Senate special election in Massachusetts 2010, which Scott Brown won, had slightly higher turnout than previous mid-term Senate election in that state.
Teemu Scholar Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 115	Last edited by Teemu; 26th May 2011 at 05:11 AM.

26th May 2011, 06:44 AM	#27
Thunder Banned Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Queens Posts: 34,947	This is why I LOVE the Herbal Tea-Party.