Lunar effect

phildonnia · 16th August 2011, 12:45 PM

From the Sacramento Bee, which I respect for a normally skeptical stance towards pseudoscience:

http://www.sacbee.com/2011/08/15/383...-memorial.html

In short, a local hospital delivered 45 babies over the course of two days. The explanation for this is a mystery to anyone who believes that births occur on a regular, evenly-spaced schedule.

According to "hospital spokesman" Gary Zavoral, who may or may not have education in astrophysics: The moon was full, and our bodies are 80% water. Because somehow the moon does something with water.

In defense of the Bee, they were simply quoting the spokesman.

Soapy Sam · 16th August 2011, 01:19 PM

Perhaps a power cut last winter?

phildonnia · 16th August 2011, 01:31 PM

Originally Posted by Soapy Sam

Perhaps a power cut last winter?

I thought of something like that. There is a known mechanism by which the full moon seen reflecting beautifully off the ocean surface at night might lead to conception. However, in Sacramento, the moon just doesn't do that.

Gord_in_Toronto · 16th August 2011, 01:37 PM

Coincidence?

Loss Leader · 16th August 2011, 01:54 PM

So, variance isn't something that's taught in California statistics classes? Everything is just on the mean all the time? All basketball games end 98-94 and all babies are hermaphrodites?

elgarak · 16th August 2011, 01:56 PM

Was there a big power outage in the area nine months ago?

Soapy Sam · 16th August 2011, 03:02 PM

Originally Posted by elgarak

Was there a big power outage in the area nine months ago?

See post 2. We sceptics think alike.

rjh01 · 16th August 2011, 03:23 PM

They do not say how many babies they normally deliver in 48 hours. If it is 40 then it is a non story.

Skeptic Ginger · 16th August 2011, 03:31 PM

I saw this garbage on the news and it really irked me because the newscaster claimed that "scientists are aware of the effect".

Gag, it's a bunch of bull. Scientists have looked for the effect and found it did not exist.

On my first nursing job, 35 bed hospital, Craig Colorado, the nurses were constantly claiming this effect so I mapped out the 300+ births we'd had in the past year and compared them to the lunar cycle. There was absolutely no correlation whatsoever. I do believe I convinced my colleagues at least about the births if not about the activity in the ED.

Hokulele · 16th August 2011, 03:31 PM

Originally Posted by Soapy Sam

See post 2. We sceptics think alike.

Yep.

http://www.nevadacounty.com/2010/11/...nevada-county/

Mister Earl · 16th August 2011, 03:50 PM

Additionally, it doesn't matter how much water our bodies are comprised of. The moon affects water and other matter in the exact same way. If it only pulled at water gravitationally, there would be only one high tide per day. Not two.

steve s · 16th August 2011, 05:10 PM

Originally Posted by Mister Earl

Additionally, it doesn't matter how much water our bodies are comprised of. The moon affects water and other matter in the exact same way. If it only pulled at water gravitationally, there would be only one high tide per day. Not two.

And they seem to think that the moon exerts more gravity when it's full.

Steve S

quarky · 17th August 2011, 06:58 AM

It would be very disturbing if the hospital had the same number of births everyday.
Especially if it averaged out to a fraction.

MattusMaximus · 17th August 2011, 07:37 AM

Originally Posted by steve s

And they seem to think that the moon exerts more gravity when it's full.

Steve S

It does, I mean it looks bigger, right?

MattusMaximus · 17th August 2011, 07:39 AM

Originally Posted by Mister Earl

Additionally, it doesn't matter how much water our bodies are comprised of. The moon affects water and other matter in the exact same way. If it only pulled at water gravitationally, there would be only one high tide per day. Not two.

In my physics classes, I calculate the tidal effect from the moon on a human, and we find that it is less than one-billionth the weight of a paperclip. So, as I tell my students, whether or not you decide to wear a hat or use hair-gel on a given day has more gravitational influence on you than does the lunar tides.

Sort of puts this nonsense into perspective.

Too bad "journalists" can't be bothered to do some basic fact-checking

blobru · 17th August 2011, 07:44 AM

Originally Posted by rjh01

They do not say how many babies they normally deliver in 48 hours. If it is 40 then it is a non story.

They say "Sutter Memorial has delivered 325,000 babies since 1937."

(325,000 / (74.5*365.25))*2 = ~24 babies / 48 hours.

So, 21 over their average for the last 74 or so years (not quite double). From which we can conclude: Slow news day.

BStrong · 17th August 2011, 07:51 AM

Completely un-scientific answer below:

I have no comments about births, but full-moon nights during the summer *seemed* to be busier wrt assaults, domestics, general bad acting out calls.

Please, I'm not making any scientific claim, just otj experience, so don't beat me too badly.

LarianLeQuella · 17th August 2011, 01:26 PM

Originally Posted by BStrong

Completely un-scientific answer below:

I have no comments about births, but full-moon nights during the summer *seemed* to be busier wrt assaults, domestics, general bad acting out calls.

Please, I'm not making any scientific claim, just otj experience, so don't beat me too badly.

Confirmation Bias

godless dave · 17th August 2011, 01:31 PM

Originally Posted by phildonnia

In short, a local hospital delivered 45 babies over the course of two days. The explanation for this is a mystery to anyone who believes that births occur on a regular, evenly-spaced schedule.

Who believes that?

godless dave · 17th August 2011, 01:32 PM

Originally Posted by elgarak

Was there a big power outage in the area nine months ago?

I'm pretty sure that one's been debunked too.

Moon-Spinner · 17th August 2011, 02:23 PM

Originally Posted by steve s

And they seem to think that the moon exerts more gravity when it's full.

Steve S

That's the first thing that came to my mind also. I re-read the article to see if I missed something, but nope...

Gord_in_Toronto · 17th August 2011, 05:32 PM

Originally Posted by steve s

And they seem to think that the moon exerts more gravity when it's full.

Steve S

But of course it does! You only have to look at it! And sometimes when I look up it is very, very small and I have been told that it can actually disappear. If it's not there, then it can have no gravitational effect whatsoever.

quarky · 17th August 2011, 07:29 PM

Never mind gravity; the full moon, on a clear night, supplies a source of light. That light allows some night time activities that would be difficult without it; especially in rural areas.

Should that extra light at night occur during summer; on a weekend night; well...

Kids are going to ram around.

Go back a few hundred years with your imagination:
No flashlights. No street lights. No car lights.
That bright moonlight was very significant.

And it has nothing to do with gravity.
It has to do with being able to see.

grmcdorman · 18th August 2011, 01:26 PM

Originally Posted by quarky

Never mind gravity; the full moon, on a clear night, supplies a source of light. That light allows some night time activities that would be difficult without it; especially in rural areas.

Should that extra light at night occur during summer; on a weekend night; well...

Kids are going to ram around.

Go back a few hundred years with your imagination:
No flashlights. No street lights. No car lights.
That bright moonlight was very significant.

And it has nothing to do with gravity.
It has to do with being able to see.

Except that the claim is more births when the moon is full. Somehow I don't think that a conception when the moon is full will ensure that the child is born when the moon is full.

elgarak · 18th August 2011, 01:32 PM

Originally Posted by grmcdorman

Except that the claim is more births when the moon is full. Somehow I don't think that a conception when the moon is full will ensure that the child is born when the moon is full.

Average human pregnancy 38 weeks. Lunar cycle 29.5 days. Hence average human pregnancy 9.01 lunar cycles. That's not too far off.

(Somehow I doubt that human sexual activity is too closely related to full moons in modern times, though. Unless you're a werewolf.)

quarky · 18th August 2011, 05:11 PM

Originally Posted by grmcdorman

Except that the claim is more births when the moon is full. Somehow I don't think that a conception when the moon is full will ensure that the child is born when the moon is full.

Yeah, that is pretty nuts.
I was just trying to point out that there is actual significance in a full moon, with (most likely) certain ramifications.
The woo is insane.
The light is not.

Roboramma · 18th August 2011, 11:25 PM

Originally Posted by blobru

They say "Sutter Memorial has delivered 325,000 babies since 1937."

(325,000 / (74.5*365.25))*2 = ~24 babies / 48 hours.

So, 21 over their average for the last 74 or so years (not quite double). From which we can conclude: Slow news day.

Taking into account changes in the population and age-distribution may impact things as well.

Also, it seems this happened in August, and according this link, August has the highest number of births of any month in the year. According to the link, from a sample of 480,040 birthdays, it looks like 43,000 were in August, whereas 480,040/12 ~= 40,000.

(For those who didn't click the link, it's "An Analysis of the Distribution of Birthdays in a Calendar Year")

Skeptic Ginger · 20th August 2011, 08:15 PM

Originally Posted by MattusMaximus

It does, I mean it looks bigger, right?

While it does not have enough gravitational force to affect a human body, the reason the tides are higher on the new and full moons are because the Sun and Moon have a combined effect then and they don't when the Moon is at a 90⁰ angle from the Sun.

Skeptic Ginger · 20th August 2011, 08:17 PM

Originally Posted by BStrong

Completely un-scientific answer below:

I have no comments about births, but full-moon nights during the summer *seemed* to be busier wrt assaults, domestics, general bad acting out calls.

Please, I'm not making any scientific claim, just otj experience, so don't beat me too badly.

It's due to your selective memory and confirmation bias, not due to actual increase in activity. When you observe objectively (meaning actually record the data not just recall it) the effect disappears.

blobru · 20th August 2011, 08:36 PM

Originally Posted by Roboramma

Taking into account changes in the population and age-distribution may impact things as well.

Also, it seems this happened in August, and according this link, August has the highest number of births of any month in the year. According to the link, from a sample of 480,040 birthdays, it looks like 43,000 were in August, whereas 480,040/12 ~= 40,000.

(For those who didn't click the link, it's "An Analysis of the Distribution of Birthdays in a Calendar Year")

So much for spring fever, eh (more like fall's balls).

16th August 2011, 12:45 PM	#1
phildonnia Master Poster Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: Sac'to CA Posts: 2,339	Lunar effect From the Sacramento Bee, which I respect for a normally skeptical stance towards pseudoscience: http://www.sacbee.com/2011/08/15/383...-memorial.html In short, a local hospital delivered 45 babies over the course of two days. The explanation for this is a mystery to anyone who believes that births occur on a regular, evenly-spaced schedule. According to "hospital spokesman" Gary Zavoral, who may or may not have education in astrophysics: The moon was full, and our bodies are 80% water. Because somehow the moon does something with water. In defense of the Bee, they were simply quoting the spokesman.

16th August 2011, 01:19 PM	#2
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,885	Perhaps a power cut last winter?
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,885

16th August 2011, 01:37 PM	#4
Gord_in_Toronto Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 13,415	Coincidence?
	__________________ "Reality is what's left when you cease to believe." Philip K. Dick

16th August 2011, 01:54 PM	#5
Loss Leader Opinionated Jerk Moderator Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: New York Posts: 11,885	So, variance isn't something that's taught in California statistics classes? Everything is just on the mean all the time? All basketball games end 98-94 and all babies are hermaphrodites?
	__________________ Follow me on Twitter! @LossLeader This force is receiving all the right to vote through the use of magic. - Miernik Wieslaw <NEW> VOTE FOR ME JUST BECAUSE <NEW>

16th August 2011, 03:02 PM	#7
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,885	Originally Posted by elgarak Was there a big power outage in the area nine months ago? See post 2. We sceptics think alike.
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,885

16th August 2011, 01:31 PM	#3
phildonnia Master Poster Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: Sac'to CA Posts: 2,339	Originally Posted by Soapy Sam Perhaps a power cut last winter? I thought of something like that. There is a known mechanism by which the full moon seen reflecting beautifully off the ocean surface at night might lead to conception. However, in Sacramento, the moon just doesn't do that.

16th August 2011, 01:56 PM	#6
elgarak Graduate Poster Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: No matter where I go, there I am Posts: 1,859	Was there a big power outage in the area nine months ago?

16th August 2011, 03:23 PM	#8
rjh01 Gentleman of leisure Tagger Join Date: May 2005 Location: Planet Earth Posts: 17,172	They do not say how many babies they normally deliver in 48 hours. If it is 40 then it is a non story.

16th August 2011, 03:31 PM	#9
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,535	I saw this garbage on the news and it really irked me because the newscaster claimed that "scientists are aware of the effect". Gag, it's a bunch of bull. Scientists have looked for the effect and found it did not exist. On my first nursing job, 35 bed hospital, Craig Colorado, the nurses were constantly claiming this effect so I mapped out the 300+ births we'd had in the past year and compared them to the lunar cycle. There was absolutely no correlation whatsoever. I do believe I convinced my colleagues at least about the births if not about the activity in the ED.
	__________________ (*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, ~~Pubbie Party, Repubs~~ "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)

16th August 2011, 03:31 PM	#10
Hokulele Official Nemesis Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Trying to decide whether to set defenses against an army, or against mole rats. Posts: 27,265	Originally Posted by Soapy Sam See post 2. We sceptics think alike. Yep. http://www.nevadacounty.com/2010/11/...nevada-county/
	__________________ Yvette: "Blasty! Blasty! Blasty!" Some person: "Why did you shoot that?" Yvette: "Blasty! Blasty! Blasty!" - Tragic Monkey

16th August 2011, 03:50 PM	#11
Mister Earl Master Poster Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 2,132	Additionally, it doesn't matter how much water our bodies are comprised of. The moon affects water and other matter in the exact same way. If it only pulled at water gravitationally, there would be only one high tide per day. Not two.

16th August 2011, 05:10 PM	#12
steve s Illuminator Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 3,661	Originally Posted by Mister Earl Additionally, it doesn't matter how much water our bodies are comprised of. The moon affects water and other matter in the exact same way. If it only pulled at water gravitationally, there would be only one high tide per day. Not two. And they seem to think that the moon exerts more gravity when it's full. Steve S
steve s Illuminator Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 3,661	__________________ "Nature abhors a moron." -- H. L. Mencken

17th August 2011, 06:58 AM	#13
quarky Banned Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,454	It would be very disturbing if the hospital had the same number of births everyday. Especially if it averaged out to a fraction.
quarky Banned Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,454

17th August 2011, 07:37 AM	#14
MattusMaximus Intellectual Gladiator Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In the midst of a vast, beautiful & uncaring universe Posts: 14,175	Originally Posted by steve s And they seem to think that the moon exerts more gravity when it's full. Steve S It does, I mean it looks bigger, right?
	__________________ Visit my blog: The Skeptical Teacher The Times They Are A-Changin'

17th August 2011, 07:39 AM	#15
MattusMaximus Intellectual Gladiator Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In the midst of a vast, beautiful & uncaring universe Posts: 14,175	Originally Posted by Mister Earl Additionally, it doesn't matter how much water our bodies are comprised of. The moon affects water and other matter in the exact same way. If it only pulled at water gravitationally, there would be only one high tide per day. Not two. In my physics classes, I calculate the tidal effect from the moon on a human, and we find that it is less than one-billionth the weight of a paperclip. So, as I tell my students, whether or not you decide to wear a hat or use hair-gel on a given day has more gravitational influence on you than does the lunar tides. Sort of puts this nonsense into perspective. Too bad "journalists" can't be bothered to do some basic fact-checking
	__________________ Visit my blog: The Skeptical Teacher The Times They Are A-Changin'

17th August 2011, 07:44 AM	#16
blobru Philosopher Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 6,590	Originally Posted by rjh01 They do not say how many babies they normally deliver in 48 hours. If it is 40 then it is a non story. They say "Sutter Memorial has delivered 325,000 babies since 1937." (325,000 / (74.5365.25))2 = ~24 babies / 48 hours. So, 21 over their average for the last 74 or so years (not quite double). From which we can conclude: Slow news day.
blobru Philosopher Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 6,590	__________________ "Say to them, 'I am Nobody!'" -- Ulysses to the Cyclops "Never mind. I can't read." -- Hokulele to the Easter Bunny

17th August 2011, 07:51 AM	#17
BStrong Illuminator Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: California Posts: 3,798	Completely un-scientific answer below: I have no comments about births, but full-moon nights during the summer seemed to be busier wrt assaults, domestics, general bad acting out calls. Please, I'm not making any scientific claim, just otj experience, so don't beat me too badly.

17th August 2011, 01:26 PM	#18
LarianLeQuella Elf Wino Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: 3rd Rock from the Sun Posts: 1,995	Originally Posted by BStrong Completely un-scientific answer below: I have no comments about births, but full-moon nights during the summer seemed to be busier wrt assaults, domestics, general bad acting out calls. Please, I'm not making any scientific claim, just otj experience, so don't beat me too badly. Confirmation Bias
	__________________ My crappy blog that no one should be forced to read. Ever... But I like traffic and comments, so have at it if you please. Larian LeQuella Armyn ab Treanid

17th August 2011, 01:31 PM	#19
godless dave Great Dalmuti Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: St. Paul, Minnesota Posts: 6,125	Originally Posted by phildonnia In short, a local hospital delivered 45 babies over the course of two days. The explanation for this is a mystery to anyone who believes that births occur on a regular, evenly-spaced schedule. Who believes that?
	__________________ "If it's real, then it gets more interesting the closer you examine it. If it's not real, just the opposite is true." - aggle-rithm

17th August 2011, 01:32 PM	#20
godless dave Great Dalmuti Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: St. Paul, Minnesota Posts: 6,125	Originally Posted by elgarak Was there a big power outage in the area nine months ago? I'm pretty sure that one's been debunked too.
	__________________ "If it's real, then it gets more interesting the closer you examine it. If it's not real, just the opposite is true." - aggle-rithm

17th August 2011, 02:23 PM	#21
Moon-Spinner Graduate Poster Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Within a star too far to dream of Posts: 1,483	Originally Posted by steve s And they seem to think that the moon exerts more gravity when it's full. Steve S That's the first thing that came to my mind also. I re-read the article to see if I missed something, but nope...

17th August 2011, 05:32 PM	#22
Gord_in_Toronto Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 13,415	Originally Posted by steve s And they seem to think that the moon exerts more gravity when it's full. Steve S But of course it does! You only have to look at it! And sometimes when I look up it is very, very small and I have been told that it can actually disappear. If it's not there, then it can have no gravitational effect whatsoever.
	__________________ "Reality is what's left when you cease to believe." Philip K. Dick

17th August 2011, 07:29 PM	#23
quarky Banned Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,454	Never mind gravity; the full moon, on a clear night, supplies a source of light. That light allows some night time activities that would be difficult without it; especially in rural areas. Should that extra light at night occur during summer; on a weekend night; well... Kids are going to ram around. Go back a few hundred years with your imagination: No flashlights. No street lights. No car lights. That bright moonlight was very significant. And it has nothing to do with gravity. It has to do with being able to see.
quarky Banned Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,454

18th August 2011, 01:26 PM	#24
grmcdorman Muse Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 857	Originally Posted by quarky Never mind gravity; the full moon, on a clear night, supplies a source of light. That light allows some night time activities that would be difficult without it; especially in rural areas. Should that extra light at night occur during summer; on a weekend night; well... Kids are going to ram around. Go back a few hundred years with your imagination: No flashlights. No street lights. No car lights. That bright moonlight was very significant. And it has nothing to do with gravity. It has to do with being able to see. Except that the claim is more births when the moon is full. Somehow I don't think that a conception when the moon is full will ensure that the child is born when the moon is full.
grmcdorman Muse Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 857	__________________ "Hello. My name is Inigo Skywalker. You are my father. Prepare to die."

18th August 2011, 01:32 PM	#25
elgarak Graduate Poster Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: No matter where I go, there I am Posts: 1,859	Originally Posted by grmcdorman Except that the claim is more births when the moon is full. Somehow I don't think that a conception when the moon is full will ensure that the child is born when the moon is full. Average human pregnancy 38 weeks. Lunar cycle 29.5 days. Hence average human pregnancy 9.01 lunar cycles. That's not too far off. (Somehow I doubt that human sexual activity is too closely related to full moons in modern times, though. Unless you're a werewolf.)

18th August 2011, 05:11 PM	#26
quarky Banned Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,454	Originally Posted by grmcdorman Except that the claim is more births when the moon is full. Somehow I don't think that a conception when the moon is full will ensure that the child is born when the moon is full. Yeah, that is pretty nuts. I was just trying to point out that there is actual significance in a full moon, with (most likely) certain ramifications. The woo is insane. The light is not.
quarky Banned Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,454

18th August 2011, 11:25 PM	#27
Roboramma Philosopher Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shanghai Posts: 7,095	Originally Posted by blobru They say "Sutter Memorial has delivered 325,000 babies since 1937." (325,000 / (74.5365.25))2 = ~24 babies / 48 hours. So, 21 over their average for the last 74 or so years (not quite double). From which we can conclude: Slow news day. Taking into account changes in the population and age-distribution may impact things as well. Also, it seems this happened in August, and according this link, August has the highest number of births of any month in the year. According to the link, from a sample of 480,040 birthdays, it looks like 43,000 were in August, whereas 480,040/12 ~= 40,000. (For those who didn't click the link, it's "An Analysis of the Distribution of Birthdays in a Calendar Year")
	__________________ "... when people thought the Earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the Earth was spherical they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the Earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the Earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together." Isaac Asimov

20th August 2011, 08:15 PM	#28
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,535	Originally Posted by MattusMaximus It does, I mean it looks bigger, right? While it does not have enough gravitational force to affect a human body, the reason the tides are higher on the new and full moons are because the Sun and Moon have a combined effect then and they don't when the Moon is at a 90⁰ angle from the Sun.
	__________________ (*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, ~~Pubbie Party, Repubs~~ "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)

20th August 2011, 08:17 PM	#29
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,535	Originally Posted by BStrong Completely un-scientific answer below: I have no comments about births, but full-moon nights during the summer seemed to be busier wrt assaults, domestics, general bad acting out calls. Please, I'm not making any scientific claim, just otj experience, so don't beat me too badly. It's due to your selective memory and confirmation bias, not due to actual increase in activity. When you observe objectively (meaning actually record the data not just recall it) the effect disappears.
	__________________ (*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, ~~Pubbie Party, Repubs~~ "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)

20th August 2011, 08:36 PM	#30
blobru Philosopher Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 6,590	Originally Posted by Roboramma Taking into account changes in the population and age-distribution may impact things as well. Also, it seems this happened in August, and according this link, August has the highest number of births of any month in the year. According to the link, from a sample of 480,040 birthdays, it looks like 43,000 were in August, whereas 480,040/12 ~= 40,000. (For those who didn't click the link, it's "An Analysis of the Distribution of Birthdays in a Calendar Year") So much for spring fever, eh (more like fall's balls).
blobru Philosopher Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 6,590	__________________ "Say to them, 'I am Nobody!'" -- Ulysses to the Cyclops "Never mind. I can't read." -- Hokulele to the Easter Bunny