Apparition of Near Earth Asteroid Eros

Notrump · 7th December 2011, 09:59 PM

No doubt the woos will soon be making more out of this than there is. But for the astronomically curious, near Earth asteroid 433 Eros will approach to 0.1787 AU (26.7 million km – 16.6 million mi) of Earth on 2012 JAN 31 at magnitude +8.5. That will be its closest since 1975 and until 2056. Eros was the first asteroid known to cross the orbit of Mars, and numerical integration suggests it has the potential to become an Earth impactor millions of years in the future. It is the second largest near Earth asteroid and is shoe-shaped with longest dimension of 34 km. In 2000 it became the first asteroid orbited by spacecraft.

I’ve created three graphics related to Eros:

1) An ephemeris with both current date and J2000.0 coordinates in decimal format for ease of interpolation.

2) A chart in current date geocentric equatorial coordinates.

3) A chart of Earth and Eros in their orbits as viewed from the north side of the solar system.

These can be seen at www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids

Photos and descriptions of Eros would be welcome additions to this thread. Below are six views of Eros as photographed by a NASA spacecraft.

Craig B · 8th December 2011, 09:06 AM

Originally Posted by Notrump

Eros was the first asteroid known to cross the orbit of Mars, and numerical integration suggests it has the potential to become an Earth impactor millions of years in the future. It is the second largest near Earth asteroid and is shoe-shaped with longest dimension of 34 km.

Dear God! The K-T impactor's diameter is estimated at a mere 6 to 10 km. A collision with Eros would surely induce the greatest catastrophe since the appearance of multi-cellular life. Would any multi-cellular organisms survive such an event?

Complexity · 8th December 2011, 09:17 AM

Originally Posted by Craig B

Dear God! The K-T impactor's diameter is estimated at a mere 6 to 10 km. A collision with Eros would surely induce the greatest catastrophe since the appearance of multi-cellular life. Would any multi-cellular organisms survive such an event?

Only the cockroaches...

Perpetual Student · 8th December 2011, 10:26 AM

Originally Posted by Complexity

Only the cockroaches...

... and Betty White.

Soapy Sam · 8th December 2011, 04:41 PM

By that time, the cockroaches will have deflector shields and FTL.

Notrump · 23rd January 2012, 02:32 PM

It's only eight days until the unusually close approach of near-Earth asteroid Eros, and eleven until its expected greatest brilliance. I've created three more charts graphing Eros' distance, declination and stellar magnitude. So there are now six Eros graphics on my asteroid webpage. Let's hope we have clear skies next week. Reports should be interesting. www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids

Soapy Sam · 23rd January 2012, 03:11 PM

My browser won't let me look at erotic graphics.

Nice night here, earlier. Venus and Jupiter were very clear.

Beerina · 23rd January 2012, 03:30 PM

Originally Posted by Craig B

Dear God! The K-T impactor's diameter is estimated at a mere 6 to 10 km. A collision with Eros would surely induce the greatest catastrophe since the appearance of multi-cellular life. Would any multi-cellular organisms survive such an event?

Depends on whether the entire crust melts or not, but in that case even single-celled is in trouble.

As for multi-celled, if some survive, yes, many will, specifically all the stuff living around the thermal vents in the ocean, as well as those living in underground rivers and lakes (think blind fish and whatnot.) The former the sun could go out and they'd still survive for billions of years.

Mark6 · 24th January 2012, 10:58 AM

A bit OT:

According to latest issue of Wired, "only cockroaches will survive World War III" is a myth. All insects can wihstand far more radiation than mammals, but by insect standards cockroaches are actually on the low end of radiation tolerance scale. 6500 rad is lethal for cockroaches, and mere 1000 rad renders them sterile. Pharaoh ants are far more likely to inherit post-holocaust world, as they withstand over 150,000 rad.

LarianLeQuella · 24th January 2012, 01:00 PM

I for one welcome our ant overlords.

(Sorry, is that all played out by now?)

aggle-rithm · 24th January 2012, 01:33 PM

Originally Posted by Notrump

Eros was the first asteroid known to cross the orbit of Mars, and numerical integration suggests it has the potential to become an Earth impactor millions of years in the future.

Knowing humanity's proclivity for procrastination, I bet we don't do anything about it until the week before.

There'll be lots of: "WHAT?!? Why weren't we TOLD?!?"

aggle-rithm · 24th January 2012, 01:34 PM

Originally Posted by Mark6

A bit OT:

According to latest issue of Wired, "only cockroaches will survive World War III" is a myth. All insects can wihstand far more radiation than mammals, but by insect standards cockroaches are actually on the low end of radiation tolerance scale. 6500 rad is lethal for cockroaches, and mere 1000 rad renders them sterile. Pharaoh ants are far more likely to inherit post-holocaust world, as they withstand over 150,000 rad.

Which will be moot unless they can survive being submerged in molten lava.

Mark6 · 24th January 2012, 04:41 PM

Originally Posted by LarianLeQuella

I for one welcome our ant overlords.

(Sorry, is that all played out by now?)

Build me a pyramid out of sugar cubes, slave!

Notrump · 27th January 2012, 05:24 PM

Originally Posted by Soapy Sam

My browser won't let me look at erotic graphics.

Nice night here, earlier. Venus and Jupiter were very clear.

Well, Sam, I suppose then that you'll have to take some to those erotic photos yourself.

Indeed, Venus and Jupiter are putting on quite a show during the early evening. Mars is rising later in the evening and will make the closest approach for its current apparition on March 3: www.CurtRenz.com/mars

7th December 2011, 09:59 PM	#1
Notrump Muse Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Chicago Posts: 539	Apparition of Near Earth Asteroid Eros No doubt the woos will soon be making more out of this than there is. But for the astronomically curious, near Earth asteroid 433 Eros will approach to 0.1787 AU (26.7 million km – 16.6 million mi) of Earth on 2012 JAN 31 at magnitude +8.5. That will be its closest since 1975 and until 2056. Eros was the first asteroid known to cross the orbit of Mars, and numerical integration suggests it has the potential to become an Earth impactor millions of years in the future. It is the second largest near Earth asteroid and is shoe-shaped with longest dimension of 34 km. In 2000 it became the first asteroid orbited by spacecraft. I’ve created three graphics related to Eros: 1) An ephemeris with both current date and J2000.0 coordinates in decimal format for ease of interpolation. 2) A chart in current date geocentric equatorial coordinates. 3) A chart of Earth and Eros in their orbits as viewed from the north side of the solar system. These can be seen at www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids Photos and descriptions of Eros would be welcome additions to this thread. Below are six views of Eros as photographed by a NASA spacecraft.
	__________________ http://www.CurtRenz.com

8th December 2011, 09:06 AM	#2
Craig B Illuminator Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 3,926	Originally Posted by Notrump Eros was the first asteroid known to cross the orbit of Mars, and numerical integration suggests it has the potential to become an Earth impactor millions of years in the future. It is the second largest near Earth asteroid and is shoe-shaped with longest dimension of 34 km. Dear God! The K-T impactor's diameter is estimated at a mere 6 to 10 km. A collision with Eros would surely induce the greatest catastrophe since the appearance of multi-cellular life. Would any multi-cellular organisms survive such an event?
Craig B Illuminator Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 3,926

8th December 2011, 09:17 AM	#3
Complexity The Woo Whisperer Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Minnesota, USA Posts: 9,263	Originally Posted by Craig B Dear God! The K-T impactor's diameter is estimated at a mere 6 to 10 km. A collision with Eros would surely induce the greatest catastrophe since the appearance of multi-cellular life. Would any multi-cellular organisms survive such an event? Only the cockroaches...
	__________________ "It is a great nuisance that knowledge can only be acquired by hard work." - W. Somerset Maugham "Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible; thought is merciless to privilege, established intuititions, and comfortable habit. Thought looks into the pit of hell and is not afraid. Thought is great and swift and free, the light of the world, and the chief glory of man." - Bertrand Russell

8th December 2011, 10:26 AM	#4
Perpetual Student Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: USA Posts: 3,709	Originally Posted by Complexity Only the cockroaches... ... and Betty White.
	__________________ _{It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong. - Richard P. Feynman} ξ

8th December 2011, 04:41 PM	#5
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,885	By that time, the cockroaches will have deflector shields and FTL.
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,885

23rd January 2012, 02:32 PM	#6
Notrump Muse Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Chicago Posts: 539	It's only eight days until the unusually close approach of near-Earth asteroid Eros, and eleven until its expected greatest brilliance. I've created three more charts graphing Eros' distance, declination and stellar magnitude. So there are now six Eros graphics on my asteroid webpage. Let's hope we have clear skies next week. Reports should be interesting. www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids
	__________________ http://www.CurtRenz.com

23rd January 2012, 03:11 PM	#7
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,885	My browser won't let me look at erotic graphics. Nice night here, earlier. Venus and Jupiter were very clear.
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,885

23rd January 2012, 03:30 PM	#8
Beerina Sarcastic Conqueror of Notions Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: A floating island above the clouds Posts: 23,835	Originally Posted by Craig B Dear God! The K-T impactor's diameter is estimated at a mere 6 to 10 km. A collision with Eros would surely induce the greatest catastrophe since the appearance of multi-cellular life. Would any multi-cellular organisms survive such an event? Depends on whether the entire crust melts or not, but in that case even single-celled is in trouble. As for multi-celled, if some survive, yes, many will, specifically all the stuff living around the thermal vents in the ocean, as well as those living in underground rivers and lakes (think blind fish and whatnot.) The former the sun could go out and they'd still survive for billions of years.
	__________________ "Great innovations should not be forced [by way of] slender majorities." - Thomas Jefferson The government should nationalize it! Socialized, single-payer video game development and sales *now!* More, cheaper, better games, right? Right?

24th January 2012, 10:58 AM	#9
Mark6 Illuminator Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 4,176	A bit OT: According to latest issue of Wired, "only cockroaches will survive World War III" is a myth. All insects can wihstand far more radiation than mammals, but by insect standards cockroaches are actually on the low end of radiation tolerance scale. 6500 rad is lethal for cockroaches, and mere 1000 rad renders them sterile. Pharaoh ants are far more likely to inherit post-holocaust world, as they withstand over 150,000 rad.
Mark6 Illuminator Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 4,176	__________________ Gamemaster: "A horde of rotting zombies is shambling toward you. The sign over the door says 'Accounting'"

24th January 2012, 01:00 PM	#10
LarianLeQuella Elf Wino Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: 3rd Rock from the Sun Posts: 1,995	I for one welcome our ant overlords. (Sorry, is that all played out by now?)
	__________________ My crappy blog that no one should be forced to read. Ever... But I like traffic and comments, so have at it if you please. Larian LeQuella Armyn ab Treanid

24th January 2012, 01:33 PM	#11
aggle-rithm Ardent Formulist Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 14,149	Originally Posted by Notrump Eros was the first asteroid known to cross the orbit of Mars, and numerical integration suggests it has the potential to become an Earth impactor millions of years in the future. Knowing humanity's proclivity for procrastination, I bet we don't do anything about it until the week before. There'll be lots of: "WHAT?!? Why weren't we TOLD?!?"
	__________________ To understand recursion, you must first understand recursion. Woo's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be adequately explained by aliens.

24th January 2012, 01:34 PM	#12
aggle-rithm Ardent Formulist Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 14,149	Originally Posted by Mark6 A bit OT: According to latest issue of Wired, "only cockroaches will survive World War III" is a myth. All insects can wihstand far more radiation than mammals, but by insect standards cockroaches are actually on the low end of radiation tolerance scale. 6500 rad is lethal for cockroaches, and mere 1000 rad renders them sterile. Pharaoh ants are far more likely to inherit post-holocaust world, as they withstand over 150,000 rad. Which will be moot unless they can survive being submerged in molten lava.
	__________________ To understand recursion, you must first understand recursion. Woo's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be adequately explained by aliens.

24th January 2012, 04:41 PM	#13
Mark6 Illuminator Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 4,176	Originally Posted by LarianLeQuella I for one welcome our ant overlords. (Sorry, is that all played out by now?) Build me a pyramid out of sugar cubes, slave!
Mark6 Illuminator Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 4,176	__________________ Gamemaster: "A horde of rotting zombies is shambling toward you. The sign over the door says 'Accounting'"

27th January 2012, 05:24 PM	#14
Notrump Muse Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Chicago Posts: 539	Originally Posted by Soapy Sam My browser won't let me look at erotic graphics. Nice night here, earlier. Venus and Jupiter were very clear. Well, Sam, I suppose then that you'll have to take some to those erotic photos yourself. Indeed, Venus and Jupiter are putting on quite a show during the early evening. Mars is rising later in the evening and will make the closest approach for its current apparition on March 3: www.CurtRenz.com/mars
	__________________ http://www.CurtRenz.com