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 JREF Forum Merged: Miracle of the Shroud / Blood on the shroud

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 Tags pareidolia , shroud of turin

 14th November 2012, 06:52 AM #4082 Akhenaten Heretic Pharaoh     Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Pi-Broadford, Australia Posts: 24,682 Card Sharping/Six Guns?/Poor Billythekiddety Originally Posted by Jabba - Doesn't that answer your objection? --- Jabba No. Do you have anything to discuss that relates to your fictitious post titles, Mr Earp? Remotely? Ever? __________________ Life is mostly Froth and Bubble - Adam Lindsay Gordon The Australasian Skeptics Forum
 14th November 2012, 07:35 AM #4084 Jabba Muse     Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Schenectady, NY Posts: 906 Carbon Dating/Smoking Gun?/Probability Originally Posted by Humots In your link, you state (bolding mine): This is wrong. The event is not "drawing from the Ace deck or the normal deck". It is drawing an ace, and there are two possible ways to do this: "from the Ace deck or from the normal deck". The question is, what is the probability that an ace, once drawn, came from the Ace deck? One composite probability value is about four times the other, but that does not mean the probability of drawing from the ace deck once an ace has been drawn is as you state. Determining this probability is a bit more complicated than simply comparing one composite probability against the other. I'm not a math teacher (nor do I play one on TV) so I can't come up with my own argument in a reasonable time. So please take a look at the Wiki entry on Bayes' Theorem. I can't give a direct URL (too few posts), but you can copy and paste en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_theorem into your browser. See the Introductory Example for a scenario similar to yours. Humots, - I gotta say, this is why I "love" probability -- it provides such great mental challenges. But then, I gotta admit that sometimes I'm not up to the particular challenge... - Anyway, take a look at http://messiahornot.com/Act2Scene2.php. - I do use Bayesian statistics in my argument for immortality, but I'm still hoping -- and, to a large extent, thinking -- that the Bayes Theorem doesn't really apply to my cards example. The cards example doesn't have any "background knowledge" to worry about. - I'll be back. --- Jabba __________________ "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Tra gli argomenti, colui che ricorre alla meno sarcasmo dovrebbe essere selezionata." Jabba's Razor
 14th November 2012, 07:38 AM #4085 Jabba Muse     Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Schenectady, NY Posts: 906 Carbon Dating/Smoking Gun?/Probability Originally Posted by wollery Not even close. Why are you suspicious of the second deck of cards? My point is that there's no reason to think that the second deck is in any way special, or shuffled in any particular order. In fact, even if you get four aces it could still be down to random chance. Why is random chance not a perfectly good explanation for either deck? In particular, why isn't random chance a perfectly good explanation for the second deck? What's special about the second deck? Wollery, - Ask Humots if he agrees with you. --- Jabba __________________ "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Tra gli argomenti, colui che ricorre alla meno sarcasmo dovrebbe essere selezionata." Jabba's Razor
 14th November 2012, 07:41 AM #4086 pakeha Philosopher     Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 8,008 I think it's charming how Jabba manages to combine an attempt to up the traffic to his website with a discussion about his understanding of probability.
 14th November 2012, 07:52 AM #4087 Pixel42 Schrödinger's cat     Join Date: May 2004 Location: Wiltshire, UK Posts: 4,241 The probability of drawing four aces in a row out of an ordinary pack of cards is exactly the same as the probability of drawing any other 4 cards out of an ordinary pack of cards. Likewise the probability of the lottery machine spitting out 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 is exactly the same as the probability of it spitting out any other combination of balls. We may attach significance to what happens to be written on particular cards or balls, to the laws of probability they are all just cards and balls with marks on them. And no, I have no idea what any of this has to do with the Turin Shroud either. __________________ "The correct scientific response to anything that is not understood is always to look harder for the explanation, not give up and assume a supernatural cause". David Attenborough.
 14th November 2012, 08:00 AM #4088 wollery Protected by Samurai Hedgehogs!     Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Land of Eternal Hope Posts: 10,319 Originally Posted by Jabba Wollery, - Ask Humots if he agrees with you. --- Jabba So you aren't going to answer my question then. __________________ "You're a sick SOB. You know that, Wollery?" - Roadtoad "Just think how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of them are even stupider!" --George Carlin
 14th November 2012, 08:17 AM #4089 Jabba Muse     Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Schenectady, NY Posts: 906 Carbon Dating/Smoking Guns? - I also gotta admit that I'm running into a problematic aspect of my different opinions -- but then, it's our long-winded debate that has made me recognize this troubling aspect... - I'm finding that whereas I've read a particular claim from several different authors, often they are referring to the same research paper, and there's no link to the research paper. - Sometimes, it's even worse, in that all these authors are referring to the same paper, which in turn was referring to one research paper -- for which, again, there is no link. - So far, that's what I'm finding about the serum clot retraction rings... I'm still looking and will buy that one research paper if I have to, and can. - Maybe, one of you has access to Miller and Pellicori, J. Biol. Photgr. Asssoc., 49,71 (1981)? --- Jabba __________________ "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Tra gli argomenti, colui che ricorre alla meno sarcasmo dovrebbe essere selezionata." Jabba's Razor
 14th November 2012, 08:27 AM #4090 Jabba Muse     Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Schenectady, NY Posts: 906 Carbon Dating/Smoking Gun?/Probability Originally Posted by wollery So you aren't going to answer my question then. Wollery, - I already gave the best answer I have (4081). --- Jabba P.S. But then, how many aces would you have to draw before you started getting suspicious and turned over the deck? __________________ "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Tra gli argomenti, colui che ricorre alla meno sarcasmo dovrebbe essere selezionata." Jabba's Razor
 14th November 2012, 08:44 AM #4091 wollery Protected by Samurai Hedgehogs!     Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Land of Eternal Hope Posts: 10,319 Originally Posted by Jabba Wollery, - I already gave the best answer I have (4081). --- Jabba P.S. But then, how many aces would you have to draw before you started getting suspicious and turned over the deck? But you're not drawing aces. I asked why you are suspicious of the second deck, because I've already explained the category error you made with the example of drawing all aces. In fact your entire hypothetical is flawed because it's perfectly possible to do the experiment you suggest (i.e. drawing one card at a time, replacing it, shuffling the deck, and drawing another card) and get nothing but aces by pure chance from a normal deck of cards. It's incredibly unlikely, but absolutely possible. __________________ "You're a sick SOB. You know that, Wollery?" - Roadtoad "Just think how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of them are even stupider!" --George Carlin
 14th November 2012, 10:56 AM #4092 Garrette Penultimate Amazing   Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 10,555 Originally Posted by Jabba - I also gotta admit that I'm running into a problematic aspect of my different opinions -- but then, it's our long-winded debate that has made me recognize this troubling aspect... - I'm finding that whereas I've read a particular claim from several different authors, often they are referring to the same research paper, and there's no link to the research paper. - Sometimes, it's even worse, in that all these authors are referring to the same paper, which in turn was referring to one research paper -- for which, again, there is no link. - So far, that's what I'm finding about the serum clot retraction rings... I'm still looking and will buy that one research paper if I have to, and can. - Maybe, one of you has access to Miller and Pellicori, J. Biol. Photgr. Asssoc., 49,71 (1981)? --- Jabba This is one of the things we have been saying. You cannot take anyone at their word, but especially not the agenda-drive STUURP people. Have you never, in all your 20 years on the case, thought to check the claims back to their source? __________________ My kids still love me.
 14th November 2012, 01:57 PM #4095 Lucian Master Poster     Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,550 Originally Posted by zooterkin Seconded. __________________ skepticalhumanities.com virtualskeptics.com
 14th November 2012, 02:35 PM #4096 Olowkow Illuminator     Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 4,828 Originally Posted by Akhenaten Oh, sorry. Posted in error. I don't actually have anything to add to this astute observation. But, but you're the TLA Language Award award winner! If you can't do "astute" who can?? __________________ Our remedies oft in ourselves do lie, which we ascribe to heaven. --Shakespeare
 15th November 2012, 07:44 AM #4098 catsmate1 Philosopher     Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Dublin (the one in Ireland) Posts: 7,136 Originally Posted by Jabba Wollery, - That was my point. There is nothing special about the second deck -- but there is about the first deck. Why there is something special about the first deck is a little hard to explain, but if you kept drawing aces, at some point you'd get suspicious. And, you'd be suspicious because you've developed a new plausable hypothesis -- this might be a deck of all aces! --- Jabba What had this got to do with the radiocarbon dating of the shroud, other than to attempt to divert attention from your failure to address it? Remember: __________________ Yes I gave in and configured an avatar.
 15th November 2012, 07:48 AM #4099 Jabba Muse     Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Schenectady, NY Posts: 906 Avatar - As far as I know, it's legal to use this picture of Jabba the Hut(?) as my avatar. Am I right? --- Jabba __________________ "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Tra gli argomenti, colui che ricorre alla meno sarcasmo dovrebbe essere selezionata." Jabba's Razor
 15th November 2012, 08:07 AM #4100 Jabba Muse     Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Schenectady, NY Posts: 906 Carbon Dating/Smoking Gun?/Probability Originally Posted by catsmate1 What had this got to do with the radiocarbon dating of the shroud, other than to attempt to divert attention from your failure to address it? Catsmate, -I was using probability to support my claim that the carbon dating is invalid. I was then accused (in effect) of not knowing my probability from a hole in the ground. Here, I need to show, if I can, that I do. --- Jabba __________________ "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Tra gli argomenti, colui che ricorre alla meno sarcasmo dovrebbe essere selezionata." Jabba's Razor
 15th November 2012, 08:34 AM #4101 wollery Protected by Samurai Hedgehogs!     Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Land of Eternal Hope Posts: 10,319 Originally Posted by Jabba Wollery, - That was my point. There is nothing special about the second deck -- but there is about the first deck. Why there is something special about the first deck is a little hard to explain, but if you kept drawing aces, at some point you'd get suspicious. And, you'd be suspicious because you've developed a new plausable hypothesis -- this might be a deck of all aces! --- Jabba And my point was that your analogy falls down because you aren't drawing aces. You aren't the ace of spades, you're the 3 of clubs. What's special about drawing the 3 of clubs? Or, put another way, explain why are you the ace of spades. You've provided an analogy without explaining how it's valid. __________________ "You're a sick SOB. You know that, Wollery?" - Roadtoad "Just think how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of them are even stupider!" --George Carlin
 15th November 2012, 09:02 AM #4102 Jabba Muse     Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Schenectady, NY Posts: 906 Carbon Dating/Smoking Gun?/Probability Originally Posted by wollery And my point was that your analogy falls down because you aren't drawing aces. You aren't the ace of spades, you're the 3 of clubs. What's special about drawing the 3 of clubs? Or, put another way, explain why are you the ace of spades. You've provided an analogy without explaining how it's valid. Wollery, - OK. I think I understand your objection now. - But, before we go on, do you agree that in the card situation, you would begin to get suspicious if you kept drawing aces, but that you wouldn't begin to get suspicious if you kept drawing a "hodpoge" of cards as you began to do with the second deck? --- Jabba __________________ "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Tra gli argomenti, colui che ricorre alla meno sarcasmo dovrebbe essere selezionata." Jabba's Razor
 15th November 2012, 09:15 AM #4103 zooterkin Nitpicking dilettante Moderator     Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Berkshire, mostly Posts: 24,600 Originally Posted by Jabba Wollery, - OK. I think I understand your objection now. - But, before we go on, do you agree that in the card situation, you would begin to get suspicious if you kept drawing aces, but that you wouldn't begin to get suspicious if you kept drawing a "hodpoge" of cards as you began to do with the second deck? --- Jabba So, when three separate laboratories independently dated the samples from the shroud to the same century, is that like a pack of aces, or a normal pack? __________________ The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232
 15th November 2012, 09:19 AM #4104 Lucian Master Poster     Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,550 Originally Posted by zooterkin So, when three separate laboratories independently dated the samples from the shroud to the same century, is that like a pack of aces, or a normal pack? Depends--which pack has the blood and scourge-mark motif on the back? __________________ skepticalhumanities.com virtualskeptics.com
 15th November 2012, 09:32 AM #4105 Aepervius Philosopher     Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Bierland. I mean , germany. Posts: 7,764 Originally Posted by Jabba Wollery, - OK. I think I understand your objection now. - But, before we go on, do you agree that in the card situation, you would begin to get suspicious if you kept drawing aces, but that you wouldn't begin to get suspicious if you kept drawing a "hodpoge" of cards as you began to do with the second deck? --- Jabba The problem is not being suspicious of ace being drawn, the problem is what you see as aces, in your analogy, the majority of the rest of the world actually see as normal cards. __________________ Omnes Blessant Ultima necat "I want, and this is my last and most dear wish, I want that the last of the king be strangled with the guts of the last priest" (Jean Meslier / 1664-1729 / Testament) A very early french atheist, a catholic priest in life. Last edited by Aepervius; 15th November 2012 at 09:34 AM.
 15th November 2012, 09:34 AM #4106 Squeegee Beckenheim Illuminator     Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 4,260 Originally Posted by Jabba - I also gotta admit that I'm running into a problematic aspect of my different opinions -- but then, it's our long-winded debate that has made me recognize this troubling aspect... - I'm finding that whereas I've read a particular claim from several different authors, often they are referring to the same research paper, and there's no link to the research paper. - Sometimes, it's even worse, in that all these authors are referring to the same paper, which in turn was referring to one research paper -- for which, again, there is no link. There's a lesson to be learned there, somewhere...
 15th November 2012, 12:33 PM #4107 Pixel42 Schrödinger's cat     Join Date: May 2004 Location: Wiltshire, UK Posts: 4,241 Originally Posted by Jabba do you agree that in the card situation, you would begin to get suspicious if you kept drawing aces, but that you wouldn't begin to get suspicious if you kept drawing a "hodpoge" of cards as you began to do with the second deck? Most people would begin to get suspicious, but most people don't understand the laws of probability and (thanks to their pattern seeking cognitive biases) think that drawing three aces is less likely than drawing any other combination of three cards. They'd be wrong, it isn't, and they would have no good reason to be suspicious simply because those are the first cards they draw. __________________ "The correct scientific response to anything that is not understood is always to look harder for the explanation, not give up and assume a supernatural cause". David Attenborough. Last edited by Pixel42; 15th November 2012 at 12:34 PM.
 15th November 2012, 01:03 PM #4108 TimCallahan Philosopher     Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,133 Jabba: Should the Shroud be carbon tested again, would there be any circumstance under which you would accept the validity of a medieval carbon dating?
 15th November 2012, 04:58 PM #4109 tsig a carbon based life-form     Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 26,789 Originally Posted by TimCallahan Jabba: Should the Shroud be carbon tested again, would there be any circumstance under which you would accept the validity of a medieval carbon dating? How about if we just draw high card for it? Jabba gets high card the shroud is real, non-shrouders get high card it's a medieval fake. Unfortunately for Jabba we all get to draw a card so it's bad odds but not as bad as all the labs being wrong in exactly the same way.
 15th November 2012, 05:48 PM #4110 Slowvehicle Master Poster     Join Date: Sep 2012 Location: ...not where I seemed, nor was calculated to be...but no-one need worry... Posts: 2,195 Originally Posted by tsig How about if we just draw high card for it? Jabba gets high card the shroud is real, non-shrouders get high card it's a medieval fake. Unfortunately for Jabba we all get to draw a card so it's bad odds but not as bad as all the labs being wrong in exactly the same way. +1. ...I'll even bring a new deck... __________________ "Science is a wall against which we crash all of our ideas. The ones that survive are the ones we keep, but they are still subjected to periodic crash tests." -Foster Zygote "And in science the default is that you're wrong. EVERYONE is wrong. You only can be not wrong if you have evidence to back up your claim." -Dinwar "That is not my circus; those are not my monkeys." -Howard Tayler
 16th November 2012, 12:04 AM #4111 pakeha Philosopher     Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 8,008 Originally Posted by tsig ... it's bad odds but not as bad as all the labs being wrong in exactly the same way. I think you've forgotten the CT card. Would that count as a Joker?
 16th November 2012, 05:35 AM #4112 Jabba Muse     Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Schenectady, NY Posts: 906 Carbon Dating/What would it take? Originally Posted by TimCallahan Jabba: Should the Shroud be carbon tested again, would there be any circumstance under which you would accept the validity of a medieval carbon dating? Tim, - A new carbon dating that follows the original protocols would be a good start. Unfortunately, if one considers some sort of radiation as possibly responsible for the image, the whole Shroud could be “contaminated” -- and then, any dating would be suspect. But in truth, a new – and “according to Hoyle” – dating that came up with the same, or approx the same, results would be a big step in the right direction (for me, the wrong direction), and take much of the wind out of my sails… - Otherwise, probably the best way to change my opinion is to start showing me that the supportive claims being made by my side are not that well evidenced. And if you’ve noticed, that has already begun to happen – the most recent admission being post #4089. - And BTW, the article to which I refer in that post should be on its way to me as we speak. --- Jabba P.S. Note that radiation is a natural phenomenon. And also, what's the possibility that what we consider "supernatural" today will be considered totally "natural" in the future? __________________ "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Tra gli argomenti, colui che ricorre alla meno sarcasmo dovrebbe essere selezionata." Jabba's Razor Last edited by Jabba; 16th November 2012 at 05:39 AM.
 16th November 2012, 05:45 AM #4113 Akhenaten Heretic Pharaoh     Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Pi-Broadford, Australia Posts: 24,682 Originally Posted by Jabba P.S. Note that radiation is a natural phenomenon. And also, what's the possibility that what we consider "supernatural" today will be considered totally "natural" in the future? You forgot to mention aliens. -10 __________________ Life is mostly Froth and Bubble - Adam Lindsay Gordon The Australasian Skeptics Forum
 16th November 2012, 05:52 AM #4114 Resume Philosopher   Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 8,038 Originally Posted by Jabba Tim, - A new carbon dating that follows the original protocols would be a good start. Unfortunately, if one considers some sort of radiation as possibly responsible for the image, the whole Shroud could be “contaminated” -- and then, any dating would be suspect. --- Jabba P.S. Note that radiation is a natural phenomenon. And also, what's the possibility that what we consider "supernatural" today will be considered totally "natural" in the future? This seems convenient. It's also poisoning the well.
 16th November 2012, 06:01 AM #4115 Jabba Muse     Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Schenectady, NY Posts: 906 Carbon Dating/Smoking Gun?/Probability Originally Posted by Humots In your link, you state (bolding mine): This is wrong. The event is not "drawing from the Ace deck or the normal deck". It is drawing an ace, and there are two possible ways to do this: "from the Ace deck or from the normal deck". The question is, what is the probability that an ace, once drawn, came from the Ace deck? One composite probability value is about four times the other, but that does not mean the probability of drawing from the ace deck once an ace has been drawn is as you state. Determining this probability is a bit more complicated than simply comparing one composite probability against the other. I'm not a math teacher (nor do I play one on TV) so I can't come up with my own argument in a reasonable time. So please take a look at the Wiki entry on Bayes' Theorem. I can't give a direct URL (too few posts), but you can copy and paste en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_theorem into your browser. See the Introductory Example for a scenario similar to yours. Humots, - To me, at least, this is tricky stuff. But the following is a quote from Wiki re "Bayesian probability." From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability Bayesian probability is one of the different interpretations of the concept of probability and belongs to the category of evidential probabilities. The Bayesian interpretation of probability can be seen as an extension of logic that enables reasoning with propositions whose truth or falsity is uncertain. To evaluate the probability of a hypothesis, the Bayesian probabilist specifies some prior probability, which is then updated in the light of new, relevant data.[1] The Bayesian interpretation provides a standard set of procedures and formulae to perform this calculation. Bayesian probability interprets the concept of probability as "an abstract concept, a quantity that we assign theoretically, for the purpose of representing a state of knowledge, or that we calculate from previously assigned probabilities,"[2] in contrast to interpreting it as a frequency or "propensity" of some phenomenon. - It seems to me that the underlined section refers to my card example. --- Jabba __________________ "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Tra gli argomenti, colui che ricorre alla meno sarcasmo dovrebbe essere selezionata." Jabba's Razor
 16th November 2012, 06:07 AM #4116 wollery Protected by Samurai Hedgehogs!     Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Land of Eternal Hope Posts: 10,319 Originally Posted by Jabba Wollery, - OK. I think I understand your objection now. - But, before we go on, do you agree that in the card situation, you would begin to get suspicious if you kept drawing aces, but that you wouldn't begin to get suspicious if you kept drawing a "hodpoge" of cards as you began to do with the second deck? --- Jabba Yes. Now try to demonstrate that you're the ace of spades. __________________ "You're a sick SOB. You know that, Wollery?" - Roadtoad "Just think how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of them are even stupider!" --George Carlin Last edited by wollery; 16th November 2012 at 06:50 AM. Reason: wrong your/you're!
 16th November 2012, 06:37 AM #4117 zooterkin Nitpicking dilettante Moderator     Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Berkshire, mostly Posts: 24,600 Originally Posted by Jabba - A new carbon dating that follows the original protocols would be a good start. Why? Please explain what was wrong with the previous tests, and why any deviations from the original protocol were in any way significant. __________________ The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232
 16th November 2012, 06:38 AM #4118 zooterkin Nitpicking dilettante Moderator     Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Berkshire, mostly Posts: 24,600 Originally Posted by wollery Yes. Now try to demonstrate that your the ace of spades. You win some, lose some, it's all the same to me. The pleasure is to play, it makes no difference what you say. __________________ The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232
 16th November 2012, 06:52 AM #4119 wollery Protected by Samurai Hedgehogs!     Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Land of Eternal Hope Posts: 10,319 Originally Posted by zooterkin You win some, lose some, it's all the same to me. The pleasure is to play, it makes no difference what you say. At least someone's paying attention! __________________ "You're a sick SOB. You know that, Wollery?" - Roadtoad "Just think how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of them are even stupider!" --George Carlin
 16th November 2012, 07:09 AM #4120 Jabba Muse     Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Schenectady, NY Posts: 906 Carbon Dating/Smoking Gun?/Probability Originally Posted by wollery Yes. Now try to demonstrate that your the ace of spades. Wollery, - OK. - My argument is that given the scientific model, the probability of my existence at all, and my existence now, is analogous to the probability of drawing a humungus number of aces in a row from a normal deck. If that's true, my existence right now meets the first criterion for rejecting the scientific model in general -- i.e., given the scientific model, it is VERY unlikely that I would exist right now. - I'm claiming that my existence right now also meets the second criterion for rejecting the scientific model -- there are, indeed, somewhat plausible models that would do a much better job of accounting for my existence right now than does the scientific model. (In addition, their plausibility should be added together in order to compare the scientific model with the compliment to it.) And this is where Bayes Theorem becomes applicable. - The third criteria is also reached in that using the Bayes Theorem, we discover that given my existence, the probability of the scientific model being in place is WAY below 1% and the probability of something other than the scientific model being in place is WAY over 99%. - I suspect that this will promote further irritation with me over on your side, but it probably is an accurate description of what I'm trying to claim. --- Jabba __________________ "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Tra gli argomenti, colui che ricorre alla meno sarcasmo dovrebbe essere selezionata." Jabba's Razor Last edited by Jabba; 16th November 2012 at 07:12 AM.

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