Post Your 2012 Predictions Here

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Brown

7. The surprise Broadway smash hit will feature something outrageous, perhaps a fake but realistic depiction of a sexual act on stage.

Curious. One of the popular series hits is called "Smash," centering around a Broadway musical, and features lots of sex appeal. The supposed Broadway production is about Marilyn Monroe. With more episodes to come, could there be more outrageous acts on stage, perhaps more erotic appeal? And might I be in a position to claim yet another hit?

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Brown

9. A viral video will show someone doing something stupid and getting hurt, but apparently not hurt badly. The video will be shown repeatedly because many will think it is funny. But when the person shown in the video dies of injuries he suffered during the event, a debate will occur whether the video still ought to be shown. Some will liken it to a "snuff film."

Not quite a hit, or not a hit quite yet: A man in Quebec was killed three days ago while "couch surfing," an activity that is depicted "in several viral online videos," according to cbc.ca/news/.

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Brown

2. Discovery of the Higgs boson will be confirmed, but there will be a discovery of a new problem with the Standard Model.
2a. Nearly all media outlets will insist on calling the Higgs particle "The God Particle," and a group of scientists will politely ask that this naming convention be discontinued. The scientists will be personally insulted by various religious groups because of this.

Holy crap, no sooner do I post the bit about the guy in Quebec, then THIS hits the news services:

Quote:

2012 could be a big year for the Higgs Boson.

Last week, a researcher promised to present something "interesting" next month related to the subatomic particle said to be the building block of the Universe.

Scientists still have not proved the existence of the Higgs Boson particle, but Scientific American reports that at least one team of researchers may be getting closer to finding the elusive, so-called "God particle."

[rcfieldz]

Originally Posted by Ocelot

Hello Prophet, ^*

That's a very good prediction I think I'll improve it and use it for myself.

Big air disasters can be very newsworthy and so later being able to say you predicted one would be a nice feather in anyone's cap.

However they are also more frequent than people like to think. We've got subject ourselves to these risks so lets downplay them please. This means that a sufficiently vague prediction can come up trumps and appear more impressive than it should be. This is a qood quality for this sort of game.

By the way, these are specifically predictions for 2012 you do know that don't you? If the events you describe haven't happened by 31st December then you've lost.

You can always renew your prediction here for the 2013 thread but the 2012 prediction will have failed. Eventually of course something like this will happen. It's getting the timing right that counts.

What I particularly like about your prediction is the additional specifics that don't really affect the probability. With take off and landing being by far the riskiest part of air travel the bit about "many on the ground" is almost a given. Even if you find that your prediction comes true except the crash happens at sea you can scour the news for an image of recovered bodies laid out on the ground and claim that as what you saw. That's the great thing about the whole "vision" shtick. You can later claim that the divine "vision" you were sent was accurate but it was your mortal interpretation of it that was fallible.

The same goes for all lost. Survivors of mid air collisions aren't easy to come by. Chances are that near enough everybody will die.

Given the events of the 1977 Tenerife airport disaster^WP and the 1996 Charkhi Dadri mid-air collision^WP it would seem that two airliners collide every 20 years or so. Perhaps we're about due? A one in twenty a hit here will not really be statistically speaking very significant. One in twenty is often used as a cutoff point for a statistical wow factor. Yet if this year does roll a critical fail on it's air safety check, Joe Public will be far more impressed with your prediction than the statisticians here.

Now many will point out that air safety measure do increase and that collision detection systems in particular make the skies are much safer today than at any time in the past. This is true and if you're an individual passenger air travel is getting safer and safer all the time. Yet if you're looking for an accident in any particular year the increase in air traffic seems to counter this.

However I think that you'd be better to construct your prediction to account as just as good a hit for two airliners colliding but equally applicable to an airliner colliding with a different type of aircraft. These often have less stringent insurance requirements and so looking at the near miss stats they're are far more likely. I'm even expressing a bit of doubt about the other aircraft. Often the causes of crashes can be up for debate so if there's room for doubt I can claim to know what the investigators can't find out. I can always remove the punctuation later if I get the full hit. I've also tossed in some additional detail that again fits the bill every time but also allows me to construct a sentence that differentiates between the aircraft without making it obvious why:

I see the safety record of a popular airliner tarnished damaged when it is involved in an accident (with another aircraft?). I see hundreds of bodies on the ground.

What do you think? If you're right I still get just as big a hit in the popular imagination but I've allowed wiggle room in case there's survivors. I also get a big hit if an Airliner crashes with a private helicopter, glider or what have you. I get a trickier hit for a single airliner crash.

To explain why that's important have a look at a list of airliner crashes with over 200 dead.

1974	Turkish Airlines Flight 981	Single Airliner	Over Land
1977	Tenerife Disaster	2 Airliner Collission	Over Land
1978	Air India Flight 855	Single Airliner	Over Sea
1979	American Airlines Flight 191	Single Airliner	Over Land
1980	Saudia Flight 16	Single Airliner	Over Land
1985	Japan Airlines Flight 123	Single Airliner	Over Land
1985	Arrow Air Flight 1285	Single Airliner	Over Land
1991	Air New Zealand Flight 901	Single Airliner	Over Land
1991	Lauda Air Flight 004	Singe Airliner	Over Land
1994	China Airlines Flight 140	Single Airliner	Over Land
1996	Charkhi Dadri	2 Airliner Collission	Over Land
1996	Air Africa crash	Single Airliner	Over Land
1996	TWA Flight 800	Single Airliner	Over Sea
1997	Garuda Indonesia Flight 152	Single Airliner	Over Land
1997	Korean Air Flight 801	Single Airliner	Over Land
1998	Swissair Flight 111	Single Airliner	Over Sea
1998	China Airlines Flight 676	Single Airliner	Over Land
1999	EgyptAir Flight 990	Single Airliner	Over Sea
2001	American Airlines Flight 587	Single Airliner	Over Land
2002	China Airlines Flight 611	Single Airliner	Over Land
2003	Iran Ilyushin Il-76 crash	1 Airliner (and other craft?)	Over Land
2009	Air France Flight 447	Single Airliner	Over Sea

This doesn't include planes that have been bombed or shot down.

While you're at it note how often the "bodies on the ground" bit hits and saves me from having to quote mine myself by stripping the second sentence.

So if I get the 1 in twenty I can claim a rare event. If not there's still an high chance of claiming a big air crash of the sort that's unfortunately far more common. Roughly 60% chance every year. And that's only the one's with over 200 dead. With a more liberal interpretation of "hundreds" then there's over a hundred more crashes I can claim over the same period. In fact the only time in the last few decades in which there hasn't been an air crash involving over a hundred dead seems to be last year. (unless wiki has missed one) That 2011 exception could be gold dust. If someone comes back with a that sort of thing happens every year I can demand proof from the previous year. Brilliant!

* PS check out the definition of the word Prophet. Are you really claiming one of these definitions. And calling yourself the Prophet, it's a good thing all Muslims have such thick skins.

ETA on second thoughts tarnished implies that the safety record was pristine to start with, damaged is going to be a given.

I guess it comes with life experiences. As far as "The Prophet" (a prophet is good enough to me) there are many to which are according to the scripture that is kept by a people(race). Many refer theirs as being the one and only. But of all the prophets given that as a title or self proclaimed ( I guess I fit this but its just that I have experienced/witnessed events that others have or have not also had) as myself(I have been called many a name,as we all, but call me that ok). You mention Muslims...there are prophets from many cultures. We all are prophets. It just depends on what you do with your talents that reflects your title. Mine appear supernatural at times(not exercised). In music,medicine,athleticism, and anything where the persons contribution exceeds in that field.

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Originally Posted by rcfieldz

( I guess I fit this but its just that I have experienced/witnessed events that others have or have not also had)

I've done this too. I saw the Beastie Boys in '92. Lots of other people experienced that. I had a dream last night about a fish playing Beethoven's 5th on the Sousaphone. Nobody else experienced that.

I'm reasonably sure this does not make me a prophet.

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Brown

22. One of the most popular books of 2012 will feature a pig.

We can certainly hope our buddy Michael Goudeau does well with his book:

Quote:

Strip performer shares his creative griddle techniques in book

For nearly 30 years, Michael Goudeau has displayed his creative talents as a comic juggler in such Las Vegas shows as "Folies Bergere," "Jubilee!" and Lance Burton's magic show.

But it turns out that Goudeau is pretty creative in the kitchen, too: He can juggle pancake ingredients -- batter, jelly, powdered sugar -- and turn them into something decidedly different.

A pancake re-creation of Edvard Munch's "The Scream," for instance. A griddlecake homage to Kiefer Sutherland's character in the TV series "24" that Goudeau calls -- you just new this was coming -- "FlapJack Bauer." Three-dimensional pigs and Christmas trees, too, and even a startlingly detailed, pancakey re-creation of a taco plate.

The accompanying photo, from the Las Vegas Review-Journal, shows Goudeau with a pig made from pancakes.

[Brown]

Originally Posted by rjh01

6. February will have 29 days.

Tomorrow will show whether this prediction is accurate or not.

[Pixel42]

Originally Posted by Brown

Tomorrow will show whether this prediction is accurate or not.

No, we'll have to wait until Thursday to check it doesn't have 30.

[100]

After The slowest news day since the inception of newspaper happens, 2018 or 2026 will be the next popular end of the world/end of NWO/year of free marshmallows/etc scenario.

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Brown

4. A large tornado will rip through a metropolitan center.

Branson Missouri, the famed show business city, was hit by a tornado yesterday. There were actually three confirmed tornados in the area, one of which went from Kimberling City through Branson into Taney County.

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Brown

14. There is a person who has been discussed often on this Forum. That person will suffer a serious misfortune, and some members of the Forum will demonstrate Schadenfreude.

Sylvia Browne in hospital: Plenty of Schadenfreude there.

[rjh01]

Originally Posted by rjh01

<Snip>
6. February will have 29 days.
<snip>

I was right! It is March 1 where I live and yesterday was 29 Feb. Where is my $US1m?

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Brown

22. One of the most popular books of 2012 will feature a pig.

Actually, quite a few popular children's books feature pigs, notably "Dream Big, Little Pig!" by Kristi Yamaguchi. Apparently a pig is also featured in "The Hunger Games," which is one of the most popular books right now.

[IIIClovisIII]

Obama will be elected president.

Again.

Hopefully.

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Brown

8a. At least one Supreme Court justice will suggest that, unless the US Constitution specifically authorizes the Congress to implement a national healthcare plan, the US Congress cannot do so, no matter what.

This is a hit, but it really was an easy one. From today's oral argument about health care:

Quote:

JUSTICE KENNEDY: [Do] you not have a heavy burden of justification to show authorization under the Constitution?
...
GENERAL VERRILLI: No, that's quite different. That's quite different. The food market, while it shares that trait that everybody's in it, it is not a market in which your participation is often unpredictable and often involuntary. It is not a market in which you often don't know before you go in what you need, and it is not a market in which, if you go in and -- and seek to obtain a product or service, you will get it even if you can't pay for it. ... ...
JUSTICE SCALIA: Is that a principled basis for distinguishing this from other situations? ... [Is] it a basis which shows that this is not going beyond what -- what the -- the system of enumerated powers allows the government to do?
...
JUSTICE SCALIA: An equally evident constitutional principle is the principle that the Federal Government is a government of enumerated powers and that the vast majority of powers remain in the States and do not belong to the Federal Government.
...
CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS: The key in Lochner is that we were talking about regulation of the States, right, and the States are not limited to enumerated powers. The Federal Government is.

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Brown

20. Canada will anounce that the penny will be phased out.

Another hit.

From the CTV News:

Quote:

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's Federal Budget 2012, released Thursday, proposes $5.2 billion in cuts to departmental spending and includes plans to eliminate the penny, extend the age of eligibility for Old Age Security by two years, and change the retirement age by five years for federal public employees.
...
The budget also revealed one of the few storylines that was kept entirely under wraps until reporters were allowed into the budget lockup -- the elimination of the penny by fall 2012.

Doing so will save the Royal Canadian Mint $11-million per year in production costs for the penny, which costs 1.6 cents per coin, to manufacture.

Pennies will still have value but will no longer be minted. Note that this measure was a COMPLETE secret to everyone, yet I foresaw it successfully. There is no retrofitting or poetic license here. This one's an on-the-nose hit.

To all you so-called psychics out there: BEAT THAT!!

[Ocelot]

Originally Posted by Brown

Another hit.

From the CTV News:Pennies will still have value but will no longer be minted. Note that this measure was a COMPLETE secret to everyone, yet I foresaw it successfully. There is no retrofitting or poetic license here. This one's an on-the-nose hit.

To all you so-called psychics out there: BEAT THAT!!

Play fair you, as someone from across the pond I had no idea that this had been debated to death for ages

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Ocelot

Play fair you, as someone from across the pond I had no idea that this had been debated to death for ages

Sure, phasing out had been talked about before, but it had never been done. The folly of minting a coin that cost more to make than it was worth had been recognized for a while, but I predicted that 2012 would be the year that the announcement to phase out the penny would be made, and I was right. The fact that the news came as a big surprise to many in Canada suggests that there was no obvious expectation 2012 would be the year.

Leaving aside the fact that many of my predictions in this thread have already come to pass (and 2012 is not even one-quarter over), this particular prediction stands out. I will crow about this prediction because it was totally legitimate and spot-on. (That's not to say that there wasn't a bit of a "trick" in making it, however.) You will be hard pressed to find any "professional" psychics who can do better than this.

[Ocelot]

All of this reminded me to check my predictions.

Originally Posted by Ocelot

The Dragon capsule will not dock with the ISS as planned in February

First one came true.

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jan...delay-20120117

Perhaps the rest are yet to come.

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Brown

28. Scandal and rumors will plague a significant food supplier.

Another hit. The big scandal and rumor affecting the food supply is the "pink slime" matter. Inclusion of meat trimmings in beef has produced an outrage. Three national supermarket chains stopped using pink slime, companies like McDonald's have denounced it, and at least one major beef producer, AFA foods, has filed for bankruptcy protection.

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Brown

4. A large tornado will rip through a metropolitan center.

We've already had major tornadoes at the end of February and the beginning of March. Today a tornado tore through Dallas. I hope all of my friends in the Dallas area are all right!

[RenaissanceBiker]

Originally Posted by Brown

I hope all of my friends in the Dallas area are all right!

If you really cared you would have warned them yesterday.

[Brown]

Originally Posted by RenaissanceBiker

If you really cared you would have warned them yesterday.

I put it to you: If YOU had a vision of a tornado tearing up a city, could YOU identify what city it was? (Assuming there were no major landmarks nearby, of course.) Look at the videos of the Dallas tornado in action. They're all over the news. Could YOU tell from that footage where and when the events occurred? If not, then you should not expect me to do the same!

Lest there be any question about my tone, my indignation is NOT genuine. It is, rather, intended to illustrate another technique of the amateur "psychics," who try to claim the success but disclaim the consequences of any predictions that happen to be hits. It is very common to be two-faced about the whole business, claiming stark and stunning accuracy of a prediction of disaster while ALSO claiming not-quite-enough accuracy to serve as a useful warning of that disaster.

[dudalb]

I predict that "The Avengers" "The Dark Knight Rises" and "The Hobbit" are movies that will make a lot of money.

[RenaissanceBiker]

Originally Posted by Brown

I put it to you: If YOU had a vision of a tornado tearing up a city, could YOU identify what city it was? (Assuming there were no major landmarks nearby, of course.) Look at the videos of the Dallas tornado in action. They're all over the news. Could YOU tell from that footage where and when the events occurred? If not, then you should not expect me to do the same!

Lest there be any question about my tone, my indignation is NOT genuine. It is, rather, intended to illustrate another technique of the amateur "psychics," who try to claim the success but disclaim the consequences of any predictions that happen to be hits. It is very common to be two-faced about the whole business, claiming stark and stunning accuracy of a prediction of disaster while ALSO claiming not-quite-enough accuracy to serve as a useful warning of that disaster.

Incorrect, your response is too rational. You don't explain the woo. You escalate it. The correct response is, "My powers don't work that way. I get these visions from the spirits as if they are trying to warn us but the veil between our worlds makes it difficult to see. I do know that it is easier when I can do private readings in my special sanctuary for just $700/hour by appointment only."

[Brown]

Originally Posted by RenaissanceBiker

Incorrect, your response is too rational. You don't explain the woo. You escalate it. The correct response is, "My powers don't work that way. I get these visions from the spirits as if they are trying to warn us but the veil between our worlds makes it difficult to see. I do know that it is easier when I can do private readings in my special sanctuary for just $700/hour by appointment only."

Heh. Yeah, when you're dealing with this psychic garbage, applying a healthy dose of rationality seems to be ineffective, with some folks at any rate. Made-up goofball justifications seem to be the order of the day. If there's any message from James Randi that irks some folks and contributes to their viewing him in their own minds as a grump, it's his frustration that some people can't be swayed from their delusions by reason and evidence.

I take this opportunity to state that this thread has turned, for me anyway, into a sort of public experiment. I made about three dozen public predictions, all documented and "time-stamped" by this very forum. Some of the predictions are not all that obvious, they don't pertain to events that have occurred EVERY year, for example, and yet a considerable percentage of the predictions have indeed come to pass. Although some of my predictions are currently undecided, I am not sure that any of my predictions has yet been found to be wrong. At least one prediction--about the Canadian penny--was a solid, undeniable "hit" that astounded even me.

If my success continues, then I may submit an article about this exercise for publication.

[Spektator]

I daresay that on the average, the predictions that we contributors made will have a higher hit record than the predictions you find in the media touted as coming from genuine (oh, sure) psychics.

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Brown

4. A large tornado will rip through a metropolitan center.

So far this year, Branson, Dallas, Oklahoma City and Wichita have made the news. This is shaping up to be the worst tornado season, since ... well ... last year.

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Brown

29. A troublesome computer virus will involve a penguin.

My, my; penguins certainly are in the news within the past week, aren't they? Penguins from Space; several news sites are reporting a penguin theft from Australian Sea World; a penguin nipped Newt Gingrich; the Pittsburgh Penguins have some serious trouble; Penguin Publishers got sued along with Apple. Nothing about a computer virus yet, though.

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Brown

31. A prominent entertainer will decide to pursue a new career, and will get advice from Al Franken.

Curious. Julia Louis-Dreyfus is starting a new show, "Veep" on HBO, and (as reported on "The Daily Show") paid a visit to Al Franken. Actually, she visited the US Senate (ostensibly as research for her new role) and went to Franken's desk. Franken wasn't there, but she left a note advising Franken: "Senator, the pornographic material has been removed from your desk." I would bet heavily that Franken "got" the joke, but I would also bet heavily that there are several US Senators who would not "get " it.

[rcfieldz]

"Senator, the pornographic material has been removed from your desk."
And where is it now?

[Furcifer]

I had Dick Clark in my death pool.

[Brown]

Well, at least someone got a hit:

Originally Posted by NoahFence

Deaths

...
Dick Clark (Gotta be right eventually, right?)

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Sherlock

TV psychic Noreen Renier's current [and real] 2011 appeal before the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit will be lost, which will mark the highest level court to rule against a "psychic" [Renier is currently designated as a "psychic" in the current court filings] in the history of the United States. The only higher court is the Supreme Court. It will of course also mark the highest level "win" between a psychic and "skeptic" [as currently designated in the appeal] in the history of the United States. Though the litigation does not deal with the paranormal, it does reference and describe both parties as "skeptic" versus "psychic".

Looks like there was a hit here, too. But not for the "psychic."

[Brown]

Originally Posted by Spektator

2. Look out for a stormy spring--many tornadoes will cause widespread devastation.

Originally Posted by chuck4842

8. Violent tornadic weather

The tornado predictors were successful.

[Ocelot]

Originally Posted by Ocelot

All of this reminded me to check my predictions.



First one came true.

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jan...delay-20120117

Perhaps the rest are yet to come.

And again

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/04..._launch_delay/

[rcfieldz]

A mentally deranged person will storm into a conferance exclaiming to kill the founder and murders several people along with a prominent celebrity.

[Eddie Dane]

Originally Posted by Moon-Spinner

1. Lindsay Lohan will be sent back to prison.
2. Miley Cyrus will continue to get trashier.
3. Lindsay Lohan will be release early from prison.
4. Justin Bieber will become the most hated celebrity in the world.
5. Nobody will cast Lindsay Lohan in any movie, and she will be sent back to prison.

Damn.

Any chance of her doing a porno before her teeth fall out?

[rcfieldz]

Originally Posted by Eddie Dane

Damn.

Any chance of her doing a porno before her teeth fall out?

A point of view I hadn't considered till now...

[Spektator]

Originally Posted by Brown

The tornado predictors were successful.

It's a shame that I have scruples. Otherwise I could be collecting bucks from the gullible.