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#761 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Land That Time Forgot
Posts: 6,509
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I already realise I'm peeing into the wind here, but who needs sleep?
![]() You're right, it's not ![]() The black line indicating where the smoke would be is only 5 miles across Johnson's line of sight. Remind me, did Johnson happen to mention a 5 mile wide streak with a solid looking blob at one end? Of course, the mistake I made was not realising that the actual plane would turn invisible once it had stopped belching out magic smoke, because in your inaccurate diagram (that you did as fluff in lieu of not actually being bothered to do any calculations with real numbers and stuff) The arc of the plane extends well beyond the smoke line thus, the distance the plane would travel across Johnson's line of sight would be 8.2 miles. ![]() And apparently wouldn't be seen in the remains of the magic disappearing smoke, but about 3 miles to the left of it. Are you starting to see why we actually do calculations yet and not just rely on our "regular guy without any professional air experience" guesses? Yes, and for it to not have been there at all it would also have been in a different place altogether. |
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It's only my madness that stops me from going insane! |
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#762 |
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Master Poster
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Calgary Canada
Posts: 2,561
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USI Calgary |
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#763 |
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Heretic Pharaoh
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Pi-Broadford, Australia
Posts: 24,644
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Presents at least one fact not in evidence. I'm absolutely positive that all of us have been fooled into thinking that what we were looking at was something else at some stage. Is attempting to turn a simple statement of this obvious fact into an insult part of what you refer to as 'respectful disgrement'? The term as you use it certain is counterintuitive, I must say. You don't know that. Appeal to authority is a logical fallacy so what do you reckon pretending that the appelant is the authority should be called? Delusion? Straw clutchery? That's why the only thing that's being insisted on is that it was a UFO ( UFO ) You can shout this claim from the rooftops and stamp your widdle foot until your toes fall off but it'll never be true. You've shown no such thing, other than for values of 'showing' that include reapeatedly whining "'tis so!" I'd say neither. What do your calculations show? It's quite noticeable that despite admonishing everyone else not to jump to the cloud conclusion, everything you say about this case indicates that you have arrived at the aircraft conclusion and won't be budged from it. |
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![]() Life is mostly Froth and Bubble - Adam Lindsay Gordon The Australasian Skeptics Forum
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#764 |
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Master Poster
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Calgary Canada
Posts: 2,561
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Again the measurement on my diagram isn't of the black mark along the red line just after the start of the turn, but of the entire turn radius. I accept that the black part of the line does not stand out huge ... but it is definitely there. And you'll notice I didn't say it was a perfect representation. But it's good enough to get the idea across and could be made more precise ... I just don't have the time or inclination for this case. Give me a reason I should think the object was a UFO ( alien craft ) and that might get my attention. As for what Johnson saw ... yet another time: He didn't know how long the black thing was there before he saw it, ( the thing that he originally thought was jet smoke ), but by the time he got his binoculars on it, there was a black object heading out through a layer of haze that could easily have been the dissipating smoke. Then as it started to speed away, the pursuing air observers ended up coming in behind it at some distance and watched the aircraft as it disappeared into the distance ... it's really quite simple. As for your calculations, I'm glad you are having fun with them but garbage in = garbage out and since we really don't have any precise and verifiable numbers to work with, any calculations are just reflections of our own theories ... they don't actually prove anything unless they are way way way outside the possible margin of error, which as you are so fond of pointing out, is in your opinion almost astronomical whenever human estmates are concerned. |
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USI Calgary |
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#765 |
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Heretic Pharaoh
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Pi-Broadford, Australia
Posts: 24,644
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__________________
![]() Life is mostly Froth and Bubble - Adam Lindsay Gordon The Australasian Skeptics Forum
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#766 |
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Heretic Pharaoh
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Pi-Broadford, Australia
Posts: 24,644
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__________________
![]() Life is mostly Froth and Bubble - Adam Lindsay Gordon The Australasian Skeptics Forum
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#767 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Land That Time Forgot
Posts: 6,509
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It's only my madness that stops me from going insane! |
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#768 |
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Heretic Pharaoh
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Pi-Broadford, Australia
Posts: 24,644
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Remind me, ufology, what is the significance of the black part of the line?
That's why your pronouncements about it are being universally rejected, and yet you seem to think this is unjustified. Because until it's shown to be otherwise, there's no such thing as a UFO ( alien craft ). Your attention is irrelevant. Or a formation of witches breaking up. |
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![]() Life is mostly Froth and Bubble - Adam Lindsay Gordon The Australasian Skeptics Forum
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#769 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Land That Time Forgot
Posts: 6,509
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Of course, we've all been overlooking the obvious...
... It was nothing more than a "wotnot" Case closed, now what happened to that pair of flying scissors that overtook the plane who's very experienced trustworthy pilot who was flying his aircraft from the third passenger seat from the back whilst taking photos out of the window? |
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It's only my madness that stops me from going insane! |
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#770 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: UK
Posts: 4,947
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What I find odd is that the USAF were so sure that aliens weren't interested in having a closer look at our airports, therefore enabling them to rule out any unidentified things seen near airports or airways as being of alien origin. After all, aliens in their little saucers were very interested in missile bases and had spent plenty of flying hours hovering around Malmstrom AFB, so why not airports too?
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Little Miss Witchcraft, she's not made of straw. |
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#771 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: UK
Posts: 4,947
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Little Miss Witchcraft, she's not made of straw. |
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#772 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Land That Time Forgot
Posts: 6,509
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What does this even mean?
Originally you said the black line represented the black smoke. Are you changing your mind now? If you're not, that would make the black smoke trail 5 miles wide across Johnson's field of vision. I know, I measured it. That's part of the problem with ufologists, they never have time to do anything precise. Too busy trying to cut corners to try and prove their conclusion to bother with accuracy. That very experienced aircraft designer, ultra trustworthy, trained observer and celebrated engineering genius Kelly Johnson concluded: "I should state that for at least five years I have definitely believed in the possibility that flying saucers exist - this in spite of a good deal of kidding from my technical associates. Having seen this particular object on December 16th, I am now more firmly convinced than ever that such devices exist and I have some highly technical converts in this belief as of this date" Now unless you think he could have been fooled without knowing it. Then isn't it flying saucers that you're wanting to investigate? The fact that the report is actually called: Sighting of a Fly Saucer by certain Lockheed Aircraft Operation Personnel on 16 december 1953 Sort of gives it away doesn't it? Unless he was wrong about it. Meh, already covered once in this post; http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php...&postcount=725 I'm not going through it again. You haven't offered anything new, just re asserted the same unfounded stuff I questioned you about last time that you didn't answer. The irony, it burns. Well, we haven't had any precise and verifiable numbers from you. Mine have all been as precise as I have stated they are and all verifiable against the accurate diagrams I have drawn. GeeMacks similarly... yours not so much. You see, I keep wondering how spectacularly wronger you can get and you manage it every time. Listen very carefully: I don't have a theory yet. Please stop telling lies about my opinion, it is nothing of the kind and I've pointed it out to you more than three times already quite recently. BTW: I'm not trying to "prove" anything. I'm just looking objectively at the evidence and seeing where it goes. Try it yourself sometime, you get much more accurate results and if you get in the habit of doing it correctly, when that real alien flying saucer report lands on your desk, you;ll be able to investigate it accurately and non the of the nasty sceptics will be able to criticise you for just making stuff up when you want to fill a gap in the story. |
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It's only my madness that stops me from going insane! |
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#773 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Land That Time Forgot
Posts: 6,509
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It's only my madness that stops me from going insane! |
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#774 |
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Heretic Pharaoh
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Pi-Broadford, Australia
Posts: 24,644
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__________________
![]() Life is mostly Froth and Bubble - Adam Lindsay Gordon The Australasian Skeptics Forum
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#775 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Land That Time Forgot
Posts: 6,509
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Well there's no space for any real UFOs to fly in then.
Witches have no fear of airports. |
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It's only my madness that stops me from going insane! |
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#776 |
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Gavagai!
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Turkey
Posts: 10,604
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QFT. Also quite odd given our very own UFOgists lifetime interest in the subject. Sadly he has so little to show for it in terms of research skills or case knowledge. There are a lot of people who manage to reach a high level of competency in hobbies they are passionate about. You wouldn't expect someone presenting themselves as an expert or even a long-time passionate amateur with their own website to be so half arsed. |
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'The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool.' - Richard Feynman |
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#777 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Land That Time Forgot
Posts: 6,509
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Indeed, I'd call myself a UFOlogist but I wouldn't want to be tarred with the same brush.
![]() But I have made a good case for this Johnson/Lockheed case being a flying saucer.
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It's only my madness that stops me from going insane! |
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#778 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Not Bandiagara
Posts: 7,172
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#779 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Kent, United Kingdom
Posts: 5,202
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@tomhodden No animals were harmed in the making of this post. |
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#780 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: UK
Posts: 4,947
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Little Miss Witchcraft, she's not made of straw. |
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#781 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Manchester, NH
Posts: 1,890
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Actually, I made an error when I said this. If you look at the data, the winds at ground level up to around 5-7,000 feet were blowing from the E and ESE. Correct me if I am wrong but it was my understanding that planes taking off usually take off in a direction the wind is blowing from to add lift.
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#782 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Manchester, NH
Posts: 1,890
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One case at a time. The "Phoenix lights", which really should be called the Arizona lights/UFOs was discussed in detail in SUNlite 2-3.
http://home.comcast.net/~tprinty/UFO/SUNlite2_3.pdf |
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#783 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: up in the air
Posts: 9,970
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It seems perfectly reasonable to me that things which have been identified as "Aircraft flares, jet exhausts, condensation trails, blinking or steady lights observed at night, lights circling [hilite]or near airports and airways, and other similar phenomena resulting from, or indications of aircraft" shouldn't be included in an UNidentified Flying Object report.
But of course, if you don't recognize that it's one of those things, or do recognize it, but allow someone else or your own expectations to talk you out of it, then those items will still show up in the reports. |
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#784 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: UK
Posts: 4,947
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Sorry Astrophotographer, I was getting a bit over excited there.
![]() ETA: but, just to clarify, the point Akhenaten and I were making with our maps is that Mr Ufology's use of an out-dated definition of the term 'UFO' to exclude the possibility of an alien origin for the object in the Lockheed case is misplaced. Rather than looking at the proxmity of nearby airports in order to reach his conclusion, he should be looking at the evidence, but without an a priori conclusion of "secret spy plane". |
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Little Miss Witchcraft, she's not made of straw. |
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#785 |
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Heretic Pharaoh
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Pi-Broadford, Australia
Posts: 24,644
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Yup, I had a look and east-south-easterly it is. That'll teach me not to do my own number looking-at. Well spotted and thanks for the correction. You're also quite correct about taking off upwind. Something like a B-52 taking off downwind would have still been on the ground when it got to Kelly Johnson's location. I withdraw my objection on this count. |
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![]() Life is mostly Froth and Bubble - Adam Lindsay Gordon The Australasian Skeptics Forum
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#786 |
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Student
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 46
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Hi guys,
I am attempting to write up the compact lenticular idea for my blog. I used to spend a lot of time at believer sites, arguing (apparently I even had some long exchanges with Ufology, which I did not remember). At any rate, I first noticed problems with the Kelly Johnson case (as it is related by UFO believers) a few years ago and brought them to the attention of Paul Kimball the director of the Best Evidence video on one of these boards. Kimball didn't even attempt to argue the facts (which I found reprehensible) but he did post a few responses from UFO zealot, Brad Sparks, the man who did all of the "research" for Best Evidence. I was wondering if any of you stalwart folks might be willing to review that thread to see if I made any errors and also if there is something I missed in Sparks' evasive replies. I don't think I am allowed to post links but the thread can be found at theparacast dot com>choose the forums>search for "Kelly Johnson" (that is the name of the thread--it will be about the 5th result in the search). It's a long one and very unrewarding! You guys may love it! The other part of my musings on this lenticular idea is in reference to the departure event. What i am wondering is, if the apparent departure was actually caused by the cloud dissipating, is our window of time (1-2 minutes) long enough for this to happen? I have video that demonstrates the evaporation of a lenticular and suggests apparent motion by getting smaller and smaller but it is time-lapsed and I don't know the actual duration. Many thanks, Lance |
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#787 |
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Heretic Pharaoh
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Pi-Broadford, Australia
Posts: 24,644
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__________________
![]() Life is mostly Froth and Bubble - Adam Lindsay Gordon The Australasian Skeptics Forum
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#788 |
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Gavagai!
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Turkey
Posts: 10,604
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__________________
'The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool.' - Richard Feynman |
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#789 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 4,255
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That's certainly not how you're coming across in this thread. And you've asserted that you've already done the maths. It would take less effort to simply post the calculations you claim you've already done in this thread that it would to keep explaining how you're not going to.
Quote:
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I don't trust atoms. They make up everything. |
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#790 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 4,255
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All of those things have been identified. That's why they don't fall within the definition of "unidentified flying object".
http://www.foia.af.mil/shared/media/...070703-004.pdf From the very next paragraph to the one you quoted:
Quote:
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I don't trust atoms. They make up everything. |
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#791 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: UK
Posts: 4,947
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Good luck with that.
![]() I understand that as a newcomer to this thread you won't have seen all the history. But let's just say that in ufologese, 'UFO' means 'Alien Space Ship', as does 'unknown' as it happens. No amount of logic or reasoning on your part is going to make Mister Ufology change his mind on this. But please don't let that stop you from trying. |
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Little Miss Witchcraft, she's not made of straw. |
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#792 |
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Heretic Pharaoh
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Pi-Broadford, Australia
Posts: 24,644
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__________________
![]() Life is mostly Froth and Bubble - Adam Lindsay Gordon The Australasian Skeptics Forum
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#793 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Land That Time Forgot
Posts: 6,509
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What ever are you trying to say?
![]() ![]() IICR, earlier in the thread TjW (? I think) talked in detail about lenticular clouds mentioning that they can appear to be motionless even in winds because the area that has the correct dew point area remains motionless. I guess if the cloud can form and dissipate at those speeds, the whole thing cloud* collapse in a short amount of time too. But I'm only guessing so my calculations could have a margin of error of 100% ![]() Right, I'm off to read another thread on another forum... another rewarding Saturday night then. * this word is a genuine typo and should of course have said 'could' but I decided to leave it because it amused me. |
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It's only my madness that stops me from going insane! |
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#794 | |||
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Philosopher
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: up in the air
Posts: 9,970
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Consider this: in a very consistent, stable mountain wave system, the wind may be blowing at 60 knots, and yet the edge of the cloud is stationary.
Even if we take stationary to mean "not moving by more than twenty feet or so", that implies that the water vapor is evaporating within about a quarter of a second. Really, it's all a function of the temperature and the humidity. If the thermocline lifts, the bottom of the cloud will vanish. If a parcel of air with lower humidity comes along, the cloud will go away. In this Youtube of an altitude pressure chamber rapid decompression, you can see how the room fills with condensation in just seconds.
On a slightly different subject, I hadn't noticed the low-level winds were ESE at Point Mugu. Considering the fairly high winds at the upper altitudes, it might be worthwhile comparing the atmospheric soundings to the conditions associated with one of Santa Barbara's "Sundowner" wind events. They're a mountain wave phenomena of the Santa Ynez Mountains. Take a look at this, for those conditions. Take a look at this for a pretty picture of a Santa Barbara lennie. |
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#795 |
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Student
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 46
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Wow, many thanks for the comments and links Tjw!
I am also suggesting that the Sunset conditions played a role, that the cloud was silhouetted against the sky, making its appearance more striking very much like the nice photo I used for my demonstration. Lance |
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#796 |
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Master Poster
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Calgary Canada
Posts: 2,561
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The relevant question is, what does it mean in the context of the entire acronym and its associated history and usage? Simplifying it to a literal removes the context and without context floats it in a manner that isn't accurate with respect to interpretation. Many acronyms work in this manner, but UFO is particularly sticky and requires more than casual usage to understand it properly. An unrelated example is BDD ( Business Desktop Deployment ). Without the context that it is used by Microsoft, we could just as easily think we are talking about office furniture. |
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USI Calgary |
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#797 |
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Heretic Pharaoh
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Pi-Broadford, Australia
Posts: 24,644
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__________________
![]() Life is mostly Froth and Bubble - Adam Lindsay Gordon The Australasian Skeptics Forum
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#798 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: UK
Posts: 4,947
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Little Miss Witchcraft, she's not made of straw. |
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#799 |
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Heretic Pharaoh
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Pi-Broadford, Australia
Posts: 24,644
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I'd say we're about due for a copy/paste of United States Air Force Regulation 200-2 of Feb 05 1958, aren't we?
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![]() Life is mostly Froth and Bubble - Adam Lindsay Gordon The Australasian Skeptics Forum
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#800 |
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Gavagai!
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Turkey
Posts: 10,604
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__________________
'The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool.' - Richard Feynman |
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