1,2,3,4,5,6 in the lottery

Undesired Walrus · 30th January 2012, 01:04 PM

For years, I've been telling people that it's as likely for you to get the above numbers as something like 35,32,18,16, 28, 21.

People can't seem to believe it. Is this actually the case, or am I making a fool of myself?

kajata · 30th January 2012, 01:08 PM

Not only is it the same but if you won you'd probably share the jackpot with thousands of other people who play those numbers to make a point to their friends at the convenience store.

Almo · 30th January 2012, 01:15 PM

Yes, the likelyhood of winning is the same. But in the event of a win, you share it with others who played the same numbers. So you want to avoid picking numbers that other people are likely to pick.

carlitos · 30th January 2012, 01:19 PM

I used to play 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, just so when I asked for it, I could hear the cashier say "what are the odds of that?"

Originally Posted by Almo

Yes, the likelyhood of winning is the same. But in the event of a win, you share it with others who played the same numbers. So you want to avoid picking numbers that other people are likely to pick.

Good point.

dasmiller · 30th January 2012, 01:26 PM

Originally Posted by Undesired Walrus

For years, I've been telling people that it's as likely for you to get the above numbers as something like 35,32,18,16, 28, 21.

People can't seem to believe it. Is this actually the case, or am I making a fool of myself?

[pedantic] It depends on what you mean by "something like." <1,2,3,4,5,6> should be exactly as likely as <16, 18, 21, 28, 32, 35>, but to the typical lottery player, there are several billion sequences "like" <16, 18, 21, 28, 32, 35> while there's only one sequence "like" <1,2,3,4,5,6>, and maybe ~40 case that are "like" <12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17> (i.e. sequential numbers).

Of course, once you've picked one particular sequence, the "like" part becomes inconsequential; <16, 18, 21, 28, 32, 35> should have the same chance of winning as <1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6>

[/pedantic]

Irony · 30th January 2012, 01:26 PM

Originally Posted by Almo

Yes, the likelyhood of winning is the same. But in the event of a win, you share it with others who played the same numbers. So you want to avoid picking numbers that other people are likely to pick.

For the same reason, you shouldn't choose numbers that represent dates, or numbers you get from fortune cookies and the like.

Dan O. · 30th January 2012, 01:36 PM

The data is available from you local lottery office on the number of minor prizes for partial matches in each lottery drawing. From that you can calculate the probabilities that someone would pick any sequence of numbers for that lottery. I did this for the first couple of years that we had a lottery here but quickly lost interest because I never play.

Mark6 · 30th January 2012, 01:36 PM

I read that people tend to avoid filling out numbers which make a geometric shape on the ticket, like

***
**
*

in a corner -- because it seems "doubly unlikely".

Of course the likelyhood of that winning is ther same as 1,2,3,4,5,6 or 35,32,18,16,28,21 or any other sequence, but apparently if you DO win your pot is less likely to be split. And fewer people would do so to make a point, unlike 1,2,3,4,5,6.

alfaniner · 30th January 2012, 01:50 PM

What are the chances that all the numbers for a couple major lotteries could be found in a random 1000-digit block of pi?

Pretty good so far, as it turns out.

Dan O. · 30th January 2012, 02:01 PM

Every possible set of numbers has exactly the same probability of being drawn. About the only thing you could count on is a lottery drawing the same set of numbers as they had drawn previously. That would be like doubly astronomically impossible.

alexi_drago · 30th January 2012, 02:53 PM

In a 6/49 lottery the combinations that have some sort of obvious looking pattern or sequence count for only a very small number of the 14 million possible combinations so it's more likely that a draw won't have any obvious sequence but every combination has an equal chance of showing up.

Another way of looking at it and shows how unlikely it is to win the lottery is that any random sequence you select has exactly the same odds of being drawn as 1,2,3,4,5,6

The best you can do if you do play is to choose a sequence that is less likely to be chosen by other people so that if you do win then you share the jackpot with fewer people, so don't use birthdays/use at least 1 number above 31, avoid making lines and patterns on the ticket or having incremental steps of your numbers.

Another thing is that instead of playing every draw, playing 2 tickets every second draw or 10 tickets every ten draws etc. increases your chances slightly though if you do that and play the same numbers each time it could be a bit disappointing if one of your tickets comes up in the draws you don't play in so maybe better to choose different numbers each time you play instead.

Halfcentaur · 30th January 2012, 04:55 PM

I figure the longer I go without ever once participating in the lottery, the better the odds are that the day I do I will be the winner of hundreds of millions of dollars. Yep.

Skeptic Ginger · 30th January 2012, 04:57 PM

Originally Posted by kajata

Not only is it the same but if you won you'd probably share the jackpot with thousands of other people who play those numbers to make a point to their friends at the convenience store.

This is the problem using obvious number combinations with shared pots.

Horatius · 30th January 2012, 05:00 PM

Originally Posted by alexi_drago

... though if you do that and play the same numbers each time it could be a bit disappointing if one of your tickets comes up in the draws you don't play in so maybe better to choose different numbers each time you play instead.

"Quick Picks" exist for a reason!

Skeptic Ginger · 30th January 2012, 05:02 PM

Originally Posted by alexi_drago

In a 6/49 lottery the combinations that have some sort of obvious looking pattern or sequence count for only a very small number of the 14 million possible combinations so it's more likely that a draw won't have any obvious sequence but every combination has an equal chance of showing up.

Another way of looking at it and shows how unlikely it is to win the lottery is that any random sequence you select has exactly the same odds of being drawn as 1,2,3,4,5,6

The best you can do if you do play is to choose a sequence that is less likely to be chosen by other people so that if you do win then you share the jackpot with fewer people, so don't use birthdays/use at least 1 number above 31, avoid making lines and patterns on the ticket or having incremental steps of your numbers.

Another thing is that instead of playing every draw, playing 2 tickets every second draw or 10 tickets every ten draws etc. increases your chances slightly though if you do that and play the same numbers each time it could be a bit disappointing if one of your tickets comes up in the draws you don't play in so maybe better to choose different numbers each time you play instead.

There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing. So for example you can play 7 numbers in a 6 number game and cover most combinations so that instead of playing with 6 numbers you are essentially playing with 7. But it's expensive just to cover that many combinations so most of the wheels give you 3 or 4 numbers picked if any of the 7 are drawn. The increase in odds is so tiny however, it may not be worth the extra effort.

Paul C. Anagnostopoulos · 30th January 2012, 05:33 PM

Originally Posted by alfaniner

What are the chances that all the numbers for a couple major lotteries could be found in a random 1000-digit block of pi?

Or even that the beginning of pi could be found in pi?

pi = 3.1415926...19729715941700531415926095214704122509...

Position 50,366,472.

~~ Paul

alexi_drago · 30th January 2012, 05:36 PM

Originally Posted by Halfcentaur

I figure the longer I go without ever once participating in the lottery, the better the odds are that the day I do I will be the winner of hundreds of millions of dollars. Yep.

Yep, don't play for 14 million draws and save the price of a ticket each time, then wait for the jackpot to exceed 14M and use your savings, guaranteed win, you might get unlucky and have to share it though. There was someone who did that (well not save up each draw), there were 3 winners but with all the lower prizes he still made off it.

Originally Posted by Horatius

"Quick Picks" exist for a reason!

There is that but

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing. So for example you can play 7 numbers in a 6 number game and cover most combinations so that instead of playing with 6 numbers you are essentially playing with 7. But it's expensive just to cover that many combinations so most of the wheels give you 3 or 4 numbers picked if any of the 7 are drawn. The increase in odds is so tiny however, it may not be worth the extra effort.

the wheels can be used to slightly improve the odds on the lower prizes although it is tiny and it won't make any difference to the chances on the jackpot other than the number of tickets your playing. Might be worth it for a syndicate to do some wheeling instead of having each person make up their own numbers.

jasonpatterson · 30th January 2012, 05:43 PM

As has been mentioned repeatedly, yes, you're right, any given set of 6 numbers in a fair lottery is equally likely to occur.

What is true, however, is that any set of 6 numbers with a simple pattern is less likely to occur than one of the sets of 6 numbers with no obvious pattern. Obvious might not be the best adjective, but there are far more combinations of the (3, 8, 22, 24, 37, 45) variety (i.e. no obvious pattern) than there are of the (1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11) variety. There are an awful lot of obvious patterns, to be sure, but there are far more sets that have none.

jasonpatterson · 30th January 2012, 05:48 PM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing. So for example you can play 7 numbers in a 6 number game and cover most combinations so that instead of playing with 6 numbers you are essentially playing with 7. But it's expensive just to cover that many combinations so most of the wheels give you 3 or 4 numbers picked if any of the 7 are drawn. The increase in odds is so tiny however, it may not be worth the extra effort.

If the game is fair, there's no way to increase your chances of winning aside from playing more times. Any given ticket is as likely as any other to win. I had to look up "lottery wheels," to be honest, but they just appear to be a mechanism for generating lots of lottery combinations.

Paul2 · 30th January 2012, 06:26 PM

I've heard that the odds of winning the lottery are about the same whether you buy a ticket or not.

Brian-M · 30th January 2012, 06:33 PM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing. So for example you can play 7 numbers in a 6 number game and cover most combinations so that instead of playing with 6 numbers you are essentially playing with 7. But it's expensive just to cover that many combinations so most of the wheels give you 3 or 4 numbers picked if any of the 7 are drawn. The increase in odds is so tiny however, it may not be worth the extra effort.

I think I know what you're talking about. Here's one I came up with years ago...

Pick 12 numbers: A B C D E F G H I J K L

Play these games...

Game 1: A B C D E F
Game 2: A B C D G H
Game 3: A B E F G H
Game 4: C D E F G H
Game 5: A B C E G I
Game 6: A B D F G I
Game 7: A B D E H I
Game 8: A B C F H I

If all six numbers fall within the twelve numbers chosen, you're guaranteed a 5-number win.

But I never play this system. The greatly improved odds on the rare occasions all six numbers fall within your chosen twelve are offset by the greatly reduced odds (compared to 8 random games) when they don't, so there's no real advantage.

psionl0 · 30th January 2012, 06:36 PM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing.

Is a number wheel the same thing as what we call "systems" lotto?

In systems lotto you select more than 6 numbers which is equivalent to playing more lotto tickets.
A system 7 is equivalent to 7 tickets (⁷C₆ = 7)
A system 8 is equivalent to 28 tickets (⁸C₆ = 28)
etc.

You can also play a system 5 where one of the drawn numbers is a given or a system 4 where 2 of the drawn numbers are a given etc.

alexi_drago · 30th January 2012, 06:57 PM

Originally Posted by psionl0

Is a number wheel the same thing as what we call "systems" lotto?

In systems lotto you select more than 6 numbers which is equivalent to playing more lotto tickets.
A system 7 is equivalent to 7 tickets (⁷C₆ = 7)
A system 8 is equivalent to 28 tickets (⁸C₆ = 28)
etc.

You can also play a system 5 where one of the drawn numbers is a given or a system 4 where 2 of the drawn numbers are a given etc.

not entirely, your system 7 and 8 there guarantee the jackpot if the 6 numbers appear within the 7 or 8, most wheels are designed to give the lower prizes, like guaranteeing 3 or 4 numbers in one line if the 6 drawn numbers are from something like a pool of 18 numbers, and yes, they can also have key numbers included.

Here's one way of making money off wheeling:

http://www.lotterywheels.com/wheel_list.htm#6

Brian-M · 30th January 2012, 07:11 PM

Originally Posted by alexi_drago

Here's one way of making money off wheeling:

http://www.lotterywheels.com/wheel_list.htm#6

You mean charging people $29.95 for the software?

alexi_drago · 30th January 2012, 07:14 PM

Originally Posted by Brian-M

You mean charging people $29.95 for the software?

Charging over $500 for a wheel that could probably be made in a $29.95 piece of software.

gumboot · 30th January 2012, 07:17 PM

Originally Posted by Undesired Walrus

For years, I've been telling people that it's as likely for you to get the above numbers as something like 35,32,18,16, 28, 21.

People can't seem to believe it. Is this actually the case, or am I making a fool of myself?

I think I might have a theory on why people find this so hard to believe.

Obviously, the odds of drawing any specific set of numbers is identical to drawing any other specific set of numbers and I think people understand this. At the same time, I think people understand that the odds are much lower of drawing a "specific set" than a "random set". (This relates to the birthday paradox). Indeed with a game like Lotto the odds of drawing "any random set" are 1, whereas the odds of drawing a specific set are very very small.

I think where people come undone is that they think of a set with a clear pattern as "specific" but if they randomly select numbers, they think of it in terms of "any random set". Thus think their set has greater chance than a specific set with a recognised pattern. Of course, the moment you have a set, whether selected from a pattern or selected at random, it becomes a specific set, and therefore has equal odds of being drawn. I think a lot of people can't get this distinction through their head (indeed, it's the reason behind the birthday paradox).

It's kind of like people who refer to the statistical probability of an event that already happened and use it to argue that the event didn't happen (i.e. something else happened). This is quite popular with conspiracy theorists.

nimzov · 30th January 2012, 07:31 PM

4 years ago this combination came out at loto-québec's 649.

23, 40, 41, 42, 44, 45

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/5715/loto.jpg

Normaly the prize in the 5/6+ category is shared by 2-3 persons. That week 239 persons had to share the 5/6+ prize.

That proves, I guess, that a lot of people choose consecutive numbers and that this method is worse that choosing random numbers.

Skeptical Greg · 30th January 2012, 07:41 PM

Originally Posted by Paul2

I've heard that the odds of winning the lottery are about the same whether you buy a ticket or not.

Not even close...

psionl0 · 30th January 2012, 07:42 PM

http://www.lotterywheels.com/informa...ling%20system?

Now I get it. A "full wheel" is indeed equivalent to "systems" lotto while an "abbreviated" wheel doesn't include all combinations.

psionl0 · 30th January 2012, 07:47 PM

Originally Posted by gumboot

I think where people come undone is that they think of a set with a clear pattern as "specific" but if they randomly select numbers, they think of it in terms of "any random set".

It's the same reasoning that people think that the odds of tossing 6 heads in a row is less than tossing 5 heads and 1 tail. This is true if it doesn't matter which toss is the tail.

However, tossing 5 heads followed by 1 tail is the same as tossing 5 heads followed by 1 head.

Matty1973 · 30th January 2012, 07:53 PM

May be I'm missing something but G H I J K L only gives a maximum of 2 correct numbers - not 5 as claimed?

Originally Posted by Brian-M

I think I know what you're talking about. Here's one I came up with years ago...

Pick 12 numbers: A B C D E F G H I J K L

Play these games...

Game 1: A B C D E F
Game 2: A B C D G H
Game 3: A B E F G H
Game 4: C D E F G H
Game 5: A B C E G I
Game 6: A B D F G I
Game 7: A B D E H I
Game 8: A B C F H I

If all six numbers fall within the twelve numbers chosen, you're guaranteed a 5-number win.

nimzov · 30th January 2012, 07:57 PM

Originally Posted by Paul2

I've heard that the odds of winning the lottery are about the same whether you buy a ticket or not.

There is more than one prize. What about the odds of winning 100$, 50$ or 20$ ?

Skeptic Ginger · 30th January 2012, 09:06 PM

Originally Posted by jasonpatterson

As has been mentioned repeatedly, yes, you're right, any given set of 6 numbers in a fair lottery is equally likely to occur.

What is true, however, is that any set of 6 numbers with a simple pattern is less likely to occur than one of the sets of 6 numbers with no obvious pattern. Obvious might not be the best adjective, but there are far more combinations of the (3, 8, 22, 24, 37, 45) variety (i.e. no obvious pattern) than there are of the (1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11) variety. There are an awful lot of obvious patterns, to be sure, but there are far more sets that have none.

No.

Skeptic Ginger · 30th January 2012, 09:07 PM

Originally Posted by jasonpatterson

If the game is fair, there's no way to increase your chances of winning aside from playing more times. Any given ticket is as likely as any other to win. I had to look up "lottery wheels," to be honest, but they just appear to be a mechanism for generating lots of lottery combinations.

No.

You don't seem to understand probability.

Skeptic Ginger · 30th January 2012, 09:08 PM

Originally Posted by Paul2

I've heard that the odds of winning the lottery are about the same whether you buy a ticket or not.

If you round off.

Skeptic Ginger · 30th January 2012, 09:16 PM

Originally Posted by Brian-M

I think I know what you're talking about. Here's one I came up with years ago...

Pick 12 numbers: A B C D E F G H I J K L

Play these games...

Game 1: A B C D E F
Game 2: A B C D G H
Game 3: A B E F G H
Game 4: C D E F G H
Game 5: A B C E G I
Game 6: A B D F G I
Game 7: A B D E H I
Game 8: A B C F H I

If all six numbers fall within the twelve numbers chosen, you're guaranteed a 5-number win.

But I never play this system. The greatly improved odds on the rare occasions all six numbers fall within your chosen twelve are offset by the greatly reduced odds (compared to 8 random games) when they don't, so there's no real advantage.

(Are you sure about your wheel? Because getting 5 numbers in 8 games of 12 numbers seems much better odds than I recall. We have a 6 number game and I believe one can play 7 numbers and guarantee 4 with 4 plays. But never mind that question, I'll take your word for it for this discussion that your wheel is correct.)

Anyway, let's think about this. In each of the 8 games you have an equal chance of winning be it 5 numbers or 6.

So that would suggest you have the same odds as a quick pick. But you are playing 12 numbers rather than 6 numbers. I do believe that gives one better odds.

Skeptic Ginger · 30th January 2012, 09:19 PM

Originally Posted by Brian-M

You mean charging people $29.95 for the software?

Skeptic Ginger · 30th January 2012, 09:21 PM

Originally Posted by Matty1973

May be I'm missing something but G H I J K L only gives a maximum of 2 correct numbers - not 5 as claimed?

I think you are right.

AvalonXQ · 30th January 2012, 09:29 PM

Originally Posted by Brian-M

I think I know what you're talking about. Here's one I came up with years ago...

Pick 12 numbers: A B C D E F G H I J K L

Play these games...

Game 1: A B C D E F
Game 2: A B C D G H
Game 3: A B E F G H
Game 4: C D E F G H
Game 5: A B C E G I
Game 6: A B D F G I
Game 7: A B D E H I
Game 8: A B C F H I

If all six numbers fall within the twelve numbers chosen, you're guaranteed a 5-number win.

I don't think that can be right.

There are 792 combinations of 5 choices represented by the 12 numbers.

Each Game you pick covers only 6 combinations of 5 choices, giving you at most 48 choices for the eight games.

Unless I've missed something here, you can cover eight numbers with ten games, or seven numbers with four games. You can't cover twelve numbers with eight games.

EDIT: I realized my mistake. Of the 792 combinations, six of them will be represented in the lotto draw. So you only need to cover, optimally, 132 combinations, which means you can do it picking just 22 games.
Similarly, you can theoretically cover ten numbers with eight games. That factor of 6 really makes a difference.

Brian-M · 31st January 2012, 03:54 AM

Originally Posted by Matty1973

May be I'm missing something but G H I J K L only gives a maximum of 2 correct numbers - not 5 as claimed?

Sorry, I got a 9 number system mixed up with a 12 number system - the absence of J, K and L in the games should have tipped me off to the mistake. I should have written...

Pick 9 numbers: A B C D E F G H I

Play these games...

Game 1: A B C D E F
Game 2: A B C D G H
Game 3: A B E F G H
Game 4: C D E F G H
Game 5: A B C E G I
Game 6: A B D F G I
Game 7: A B D E H I
Game 8: A B C F H I

If all six numbers fall within the nine numbers chosen, you're guaranteed a 5-number win.

30th January 2012, 01:04 PM	#1
Undesired Walrus Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: London Posts: 10,882	1,2,3,4,5,6 in the lottery For years, I've been telling people that it's as likely for you to get the above numbers as something like 35,32,18,16, 28, 21. People can't seem to believe it. Is this actually the case, or am I making a fool of myself?
	__________________ Man's material discoveries have outpaced his moral progress. - Clement Attlee, 1945

30th January 2012, 01:08 PM	#2
kajata Graduate Poster Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 1,721	Not only is it the same but if you won you'd probably share the jackpot with thousands of other people who play those numbers to make a point to their friends at the convenience store.
kajata Graduate Poster Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 1,721

30th January 2012, 01:15 PM	#3
Almo Masterblazer Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Montreal, Quebec Posts: 6,404	Yes, the likelyhood of winning is the same. But in the event of a win, you share it with others who played the same numbers. So you want to avoid picking numbers that other people are likely to pick.
	__________________ Almo! My Blog "No society ever collapsed because the poor had too much." — LeftySergeant "It may be that there is no body really at rest, to which the places and motions of others may be referred." –Issac Newton in the Principia

30th January 2012, 01:26 PM	#5
dasmiller Just the right amount of cowbell Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Well past Hither, looking for Yon Posts: 3,454	Originally Posted by Undesired Walrus For years, I've been telling people that it's as likely for you to get the above numbers as something like 35,32,18,16, 28, 21. People can't seem to believe it. Is this actually the case, or am I making a fool of myself? [pedantic] It depends on what you mean by "something like." <1,2,3,4,5,6> should be exactly as likely as <16, 18, 21, 28, 32, 35>, but to the typical lottery player, there are several billion sequences "like" <16, 18, 21, 28, 32, 35> while there's only one sequence "like" <1,2,3,4,5,6>, and maybe ~40 case that are "like" <12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17> (i.e. sequential numbers). Of course, once you've picked one particular sequence, the "like" part becomes inconsequential; <16, 18, 21, 28, 32, 35> should have the same chance of winning as <1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6> [/pedantic]
	__________________ "In times of war, we need warriors. But this isn't a war." - Phil Plaitt

30th January 2012, 01:36 PM	#7
Dan O. Philosopher Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 8,713	The data is available from you local lottery office on the number of minor prizes for partial matches in each lottery drawing. From that you can calculate the probabilities that someone would pick any sequence of numbers for that lottery. I did this for the first couple of years that we had a lottery here but quickly lost interest because I never play.
Dan O. Philosopher Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 8,713	__________________ Permanent solution to national fiscal problems: Collect UNDIEs from dead rich people. (link)

30th January 2012, 01:19 PM	#4
carlitos "más divertido" Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 11,465	I used to play 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, just so when I asked for it, I could hear the cashier say "what are the odds of that?" Originally Posted by Almo Yes, the likelyhood of winning is the same. But in the event of a win, you share it with others who played the same numbers. So you want to avoid picking numbers that other people are likely to pick. Good point.

30th January 2012, 01:26 PM	#6
Irony Muse Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 872	Originally Posted by Almo Yes, the likelyhood of winning is the same. But in the event of a win, you share it with others who played the same numbers. So you want to avoid picking numbers that other people are likely to pick. For the same reason, you shouldn't choose numbers that represent dates, or numbers you get from fortune cookies and the like.
Irony Muse Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 872

30th January 2012, 01:36 PM	#8
Mark6 Illuminator Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 4,173	I read that people tend to avoid filling out numbers which make a geometric shape on the ticket, like * * in a corner -- because it seems "doubly unlikely". Of course the likelyhood of that winning is ther same as 1,2,3,4,5,6 or 35,32,18,16,28,21 or any other sequence, but apparently if you DO win your pot is less likely to be split. And fewer people would do so to make a point, unlike 1,2,3,4,5,6.
Mark6 Illuminator Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 4,173	__________________ Gamemaster: "A horde of rotting zombies is shambling toward you. The sign over the door says 'Accounting'"

30th January 2012, 01:50 PM	#9
alfaniner Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Sorth Dakonsin Posts: 11,379	What are the chances that all the numbers for a couple major lotteries could be found in a random 1000-digit block of pi? Pretty good so far, as it turns out.
	__________________ Science doesn't lie.

30th January 2012, 02:01 PM	#10
Dan O. Philosopher Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 8,713	Every possible set of numbers has exactly the same probability of being drawn. About the only thing you could count on is a lottery drawing the same set of numbers as they had drawn previously. That would be like doubly astronomically impossible.
Dan O. Philosopher Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 8,713	__________________ Permanent solution to national fiscal problems: Collect UNDIEs from dead rich people. (link) Last edited by Dan O.; 30th January 2012 at 02:04 PM.

30th January 2012, 02:53 PM	#11
alexi_drago Muse Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 676	In a 6/49 lottery the combinations that have some sort of obvious looking pattern or sequence count for only a very small number of the 14 million possible combinations so it's more likely that a draw won't have any obvious sequence but every combination has an equal chance of showing up. Another way of looking at it and shows how unlikely it is to win the lottery is that any random sequence you select has exactly the same odds of being drawn as 1,2,3,4,5,6 The best you can do if you do play is to choose a sequence that is less likely to be chosen by other people so that if you do win then you share the jackpot with fewer people, so don't use birthdays/use at least 1 number above 31, avoid making lines and patterns on the ticket or having incremental steps of your numbers. Another thing is that instead of playing every draw, playing 2 tickets every second draw or 10 tickets every ten draws etc. increases your chances slightly though if you do that and play the same numbers each time it could be a bit disappointing if one of your tickets comes up in the draws you don't play in so maybe better to choose different numbers each time you play instead.
alexi_drago Muse Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 676	__________________ Thank you for flying Delta Business Express. We hope you enjoyed giving us the business as much as we enjoyed taking you for a ride. Remember, nobody loves you, or your money, more than Delta. Last edited by alexi_drago; 30th January 2012 at 02:58 PM.

30th January 2012, 04:55 PM	#12
Halfcentaur Philosopher Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 5,935	I figure the longer I go without ever once participating in the lottery, the better the odds are that the day I do I will be the winner of hundreds of millions of dollars. Yep.
Halfcentaur Philosopher Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 5,935

30th January 2012, 04:57 PM	#13
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,509	Originally Posted by kajata Not only is it the same but if you won you'd probably share the jackpot with thousands of other people who play those numbers to make a point to their friends at the convenience store. This is the problem using obvious number combinations with shared pots.
	__________________ (*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, ~~Pubbie Party, Repubs~~ "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)

30th January 2012, 05:00 PM	#14
Horatius NWO Kitty Wrangler Join Date: May 2006 Location: Ottawa, ON, Canada Posts: 21,883	Originally Posted by alexi_drago ... though if you do that and play the same numbers each time it could be a bit disappointing if one of your tickets comes up in the draws you don't play in so maybe better to choose different numbers each time you play instead. "Quick Picks" exist for a reason!
	__________________ Obviously, that means cats are indeed evil and that ownership or display of a feline is an overt declaration of one's affiliation with dark forces. - Cl1mh4224rd

30th January 2012, 05:02 PM	#15
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,509	Originally Posted by alexi_drago In a 6/49 lottery the combinations that have some sort of obvious looking pattern or sequence count for only a very small number of the 14 million possible combinations so it's more likely that a draw won't have any obvious sequence but every combination has an equal chance of showing up. Another way of looking at it and shows how unlikely it is to win the lottery is that any random sequence you select has exactly the same odds of being drawn as 1,2,3,4,5,6 The best you can do if you do play is to choose a sequence that is less likely to be chosen by other people so that if you do win then you share the jackpot with fewer people, so don't use birthdays/use at least 1 number above 31, avoid making lines and patterns on the ticket or having incremental steps of your numbers. Another thing is that instead of playing every draw, playing 2 tickets every second draw or 10 tickets every ten draws etc. increases your chances slightly though if you do that and play the same numbers each time it could be a bit disappointing if one of your tickets comes up in the draws you don't play in so maybe better to choose different numbers each time you play instead. There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing. So for example you can play 7 numbers in a 6 number game and cover most combinations so that instead of playing with 6 numbers you are essentially playing with 7. But it's expensive just to cover that many combinations so most of the wheels give you 3 or 4 numbers picked if any of the 7 are drawn. The increase in odds is so tiny however, it may not be worth the extra effort.
	__________________ (*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, ~~Pubbie Party, Repubs~~ "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)

30th January 2012, 05:33 PM	#16
Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Nap, interrupted. Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: a little toolshed Posts: 18,589	Originally Posted by alfaniner What are the chances that all the numbers for a couple major lotteries could be found in a random 1000-digit block of pi? Or even that the beginning of pi could be found in pi? pi = 3.1415926...19729715941700531415926095214704122509... Position 50,366,472. ~~ Paul
	__________________ Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon. ---Susan Ertz RIP Mr. Skinny Last edited by Paul C. Anagnostopoulos; 30th January 2012 at 05:35 PM.

30th January 2012, 05:36 PM	#17
alexi_drago Muse Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 676	Originally Posted by Halfcentaur I figure the longer I go without ever once participating in the lottery, the better the odds are that the day I do I will be the winner of hundreds of millions of dollars. Yep. Yep, don't play for 14 million draws and save the price of a ticket each time, then wait for the jackpot to exceed 14M and use your savings, guaranteed win, you might get unlucky and have to share it though. There was someone who did that (well not save up each draw), there were 3 winners but with all the lower prizes he still made off it. Originally Posted by Horatius "Quick Picks" exist for a reason! There is that but Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing. So for example you can play 7 numbers in a 6 number game and cover most combinations so that instead of playing with 6 numbers you are essentially playing with 7. But it's expensive just to cover that many combinations so most of the wheels give you 3 or 4 numbers picked if any of the 7 are drawn. The increase in odds is so tiny however, it may not be worth the extra effort. the wheels can be used to slightly improve the odds on the lower prizes although it is tiny and it won't make any difference to the chances on the jackpot other than the number of tickets your playing. Might be worth it for a syndicate to do some wheeling instead of having each person make up their own numbers.
alexi_drago Muse Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 676	__________________ Thank you for flying Delta Business Express. We hope you enjoyed giving us the business as much as we enjoyed taking you for a ride. Remember, nobody loves you, or your money, more than Delta. Last edited by alexi_drago; 30th January 2012 at 05:43 PM.

30th January 2012, 05:43 PM	#18
jasonpatterson Philanthropic Misanthrope Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Space, The Final Frontier Posts: 2,180	As has been mentioned repeatedly, yes, you're right, any given set of 6 numbers in a fair lottery is equally likely to occur. What is true, however, is that any set of 6 numbers with a simple pattern is less likely to occur than one of the sets of 6 numbers with no obvious pattern. Obvious might not be the best adjective, but there are far more combinations of the (3, 8, 22, 24, 37, 45) variety (i.e. no obvious pattern) than there are of the (1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11) variety. There are an awful lot of obvious patterns, to be sure, but there are far more sets that have none.
	__________________ Sandra's seen a leprechaun, Eddie touched a troll, Laurie danced with witches once, Charlie found some goblins' gold. Donald heard a mermaid sing, Susie spied an elf, But all the magic I have known I've had to make myself. - Shel Silverstein

30th January 2012, 05:48 PM	#19
jasonpatterson Philanthropic Misanthrope Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Space, The Final Frontier Posts: 2,180	Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing. So for example you can play 7 numbers in a 6 number game and cover most combinations so that instead of playing with 6 numbers you are essentially playing with 7. But it's expensive just to cover that many combinations so most of the wheels give you 3 or 4 numbers picked if any of the 7 are drawn. The increase in odds is so tiny however, it may not be worth the extra effort. If the game is fair, there's no way to increase your chances of winning aside from playing more times. Any given ticket is as likely as any other to win. I had to look up "lottery wheels," to be honest, but they just appear to be a mechanism for generating lots of lottery combinations.
	__________________ Sandra's seen a leprechaun, Eddie touched a troll, Laurie danced with witches once, Charlie found some goblins' gold. Donald heard a mermaid sing, Susie spied an elf, But all the magic I have known I've had to make myself. - Shel Silverstein

30th January 2012, 06:26 PM	#20
Paul2 Graduate Poster Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,486	I've heard that the odds of winning the lottery are about the same whether you buy a ticket or not.
Paul2 Graduate Poster Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,486	__________________ It's nice to be nice to the nice.

30th January 2012, 06:33 PM	#21
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Downunder Posts: 4,237	Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing. So for example you can play 7 numbers in a 6 number game and cover most combinations so that instead of playing with 6 numbers you are essentially playing with 7. But it's expensive just to cover that many combinations so most of the wheels give you 3 or 4 numbers picked if any of the 7 are drawn. The increase in odds is so tiny however, it may not be worth the extra effort. I think I know what you're talking about. Here's one I came up with years ago... Pick 12 numbers: A B C D E F G H I J K L Play these games... Game 1: A B C D E F Game 2: A B C D G H Game 3: A B E F G H Game 4: C D E F G H Game 5: A B C E G I Game 6: A B D F G I Game 7: A B D E H I Game 8: A B C F H I If all six numbers fall within the twelve numbers chosen, you're guaranteed a 5-number win. But I never play this system. The greatly improved odds on the rare occasions all six numbers fall within your chosen twelve are offset by the greatly reduced odds (compared to 8 random games) when they don't, so there's no real advantage.
	__________________ "That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim

30th January 2012, 06:36 PM	#22
psionl0 Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°58'S 115°57'E Posts: 4,760	Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing. Is a number wheel the same thing as what we call "systems" lotto? In systems lotto you select more than 6 numbers which is equivalent to playing more lotto tickets. A system 7 is equivalent to 7 tickets (⁷C₆ = 7) A system 8 is equivalent to 28 tickets (⁸C₆ = 28) etc. You can also play a system 5 where one of the drawn numbers is a given or a system 4 where 2 of the drawn numbers are a given etc.

30th January 2012, 06:57 PM	#23
alexi_drago Muse Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 676	Originally Posted by psionl0 Is a number wheel the same thing as what we call "systems" lotto? In systems lotto you select more than 6 numbers which is equivalent to playing more lotto tickets. A system 7 is equivalent to 7 tickets (⁷C₆ = 7) A system 8 is equivalent to 28 tickets (⁸C₆ = 28) etc. You can also play a system 5 where one of the drawn numbers is a given or a system 4 where 2 of the drawn numbers are a given etc. not entirely, your system 7 and 8 there guarantee the jackpot if the 6 numbers appear within the 7 or 8, most wheels are designed to give the lower prizes, like guaranteeing 3 or 4 numbers in one line if the 6 drawn numbers are from something like a pool of 18 numbers, and yes, they can also have key numbers included. Here's one way of making money off wheeling: http://www.lotterywheels.com/wheel_list.htm#6
alexi_drago Muse Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 676	__________________ Thank you for flying Delta Business Express. We hope you enjoyed giving us the business as much as we enjoyed taking you for a ride. Remember, nobody loves you, or your money, more than Delta.

30th January 2012, 07:11 PM	#24
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Downunder Posts: 4,237	Originally Posted by alexi_drago Here's one way of making money off wheeling: http://www.lotterywheels.com/wheel_list.htm#6 You mean charging people $29.95 for the software?
	__________________ "That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim

30th January 2012, 07:14 PM	#25
alexi_drago Muse Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 676	Originally Posted by Brian-M You mean charging people $29.95 for the software? Charging over $500 for a wheel that could probably be made in a $29.95 piece of software.
alexi_drago Muse Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 676	__________________ Thank you for flying Delta Business Express. We hope you enjoyed giving us the business as much as we enjoyed taking you for a ride. Remember, nobody loves you, or your money, more than Delta.

30th January 2012, 07:17 PM	#26
gumboot lorcutus.tolere Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: New Zealand Posts: 23,103	Originally Posted by Undesired Walrus For years, I've been telling people that it's as likely for you to get the above numbers as something like 35,32,18,16, 28, 21. People can't seem to believe it. Is this actually the case, or am I making a fool of myself? I think I might have a theory on why people find this so hard to believe. Obviously, the odds of drawing any specific set of numbers is identical to drawing any other specific set of numbers and I think people understand this. At the same time, I think people understand that the odds are much lower of drawing a "specific set" than a "random set". (This relates to the birthday paradox). Indeed with a game like Lotto the odds of drawing "any random set" are 1, whereas the odds of drawing a specific set are very very small. I think where people come undone is that they think of a set with a clear pattern as "specific" but if they randomly select numbers, they think of it in terms of "any random set". Thus think their set has greater chance than a specific set with a recognised pattern. Of course, the moment you have a set, whether selected from a pattern or selected at random, it becomes a specific set, and therefore has equal odds of being drawn. I think a lot of people can't get this distinction through their head (indeed, it's the reason behind the birthday paradox). It's kind of like people who refer to the statistical probability of an event that already happened and use it to argue that the event didn't happen (i.e. something else happened). This is quite popular with conspiracy theorists.
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30th January 2012, 07:31 PM	#27
nimzov Muse Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Montréal Posts: 917	4 years ago this combination came out at loto-québec's 649. 23, 40, 41, 42, 44, 45 http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/5715/loto.jpg Normaly the prize in the 5/6+ category is shared by 2-3 persons. That week 239 persons had to share the 5/6+ prize. That proves, I guess, that a lot of people choose consecutive numbers and that this method is worse that choosing random numbers.
	Last edited by nimzov; 30th January 2012 at 07:48 PM.

30th January 2012, 07:41 PM	#28
Skeptical Greg Agave Wine Connoisseur Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Just past 'Resume Speed' Posts: 12,873	Originally Posted by Paul2 I've heard that the odds of winning the lottery are about the same whether you buy a ticket or not. Not even close...
	__________________ " Somewhere between Jesus dying on the cross, and a giant bunny hiding eggs,there seems to be a gap in information. " Stan - Southpark Prove your computer is not a wimp ! Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232

30th January 2012, 07:42 PM	#29
psionl0 Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°58'S 115°57'E Posts: 4,760	http://www.lotterywheels.com/informa...ling%20system? Now I get it. A "full wheel" is indeed equivalent to "systems" lotto while an "abbreviated" wheel doesn't include all combinations.

30th January 2012, 07:47 PM	#30
psionl0 Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°58'S 115°57'E Posts: 4,760	Originally Posted by gumboot I think where people come undone is that they think of a set with a clear pattern as "specific" but if they randomly select numbers, they think of it in terms of "any random set". It's the same reasoning that people think that the odds of tossing 6 heads in a row is less than tossing 5 heads and 1 tail. This is true if it doesn't matter which toss is the tail. However, tossing 5 heads followed by 1 tail is the same as tossing 5 heads followed by 1 head.

30th January 2012, 07:53 PM	#31
Matty1973 Critical Thinker Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: London Posts: 253	May be I'm missing something but G H I J K L only gives a maximum of 2 correct numbers - not 5 as claimed? Originally Posted by Brian-M I think I know what you're talking about. Here's one I came up with years ago... Pick 12 numbers: A B C D E F G H I J K L Play these games... Game 1: A B C D E F Game 2: A B C D G H Game 3: A B E F G H Game 4: C D E F G H Game 5: A B C E G I Game 6: A B D F G I Game 7: A B D E H I Game 8: A B C F H I If all six numbers fall within the twelve numbers chosen, you're guaranteed a 5-number win.

30th January 2012, 07:57 PM	#32
nimzov Muse Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Montréal Posts: 917	Originally Posted by Paul2 I've heard that the odds of winning the lottery are about the same whether you buy a ticket or not. There is more than one prize. What about the odds of winning 100$, 50$ or 20$ ?

30th January 2012, 09:06 PM	#33
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,509	Originally Posted by jasonpatterson As has been mentioned repeatedly, yes, you're right, any given set of 6 numbers in a fair lottery is equally likely to occur. What is true, however, is that any set of 6 numbers with a simple pattern is less likely to occur than one of the sets of 6 numbers with no obvious pattern. Obvious might not be the best adjective, but there are far more combinations of the (3, 8, 22, 24, 37, 45) variety (i.e. no obvious pattern) than there are of the (1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11) variety. There are an awful lot of obvious patterns, to be sure, but there are far more sets that have none. No.
	__________________ (*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, ~~Pubbie Party, Repubs~~ "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)

30th January 2012, 09:07 PM	#34
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,509	Originally Posted by jasonpatterson If the game is fair, there's no way to increase your chances of winning aside from playing more times. Any given ticket is as likely as any other to win. I had to look up "lottery wheels," to be honest, but they just appear to be a mechanism for generating lots of lottery combinations. No. You don't seem to understand probability.
	__________________ (*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, ~~Pubbie Party, Repubs~~ "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)

30th January 2012, 09:08 PM	#35
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,509	Originally Posted by Paul2 I've heard that the odds of winning the lottery are about the same whether you buy a ticket or not. If you round off.
	__________________ (*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, ~~Pubbie Party, Repubs~~ "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)