JREF Homepage Swift Blog Events Calendar $1 Million Paranormal Challenge The Amaz!ng Meeting Useful Links Support Us
James Randi Educational Foundation JREF Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   JREF Forum » General Topics » Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology
Click Here To Donate

Notices


Welcome to the JREF Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.

Tags lotteries , math puzzles , probability , probability puzzles

Reply
Old 31st January 2012, 05:16 AM   #41
Skeptic Ginger
formerly skeptigirl
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Shifting through paradigms
Posts: 42,930
This was interesting:
Quote:
In a famous occurrence, a Polish-Irish businessman named Stefan Klincewicz bought up almost all of the 1,947,792 combinations available at the Irish lottery. He and his associates paid less than one million Irish pounds while the jackpot stood at 1.7 million pounds. The syndicate did have a ticket with the winning numbers. However, so did two other players, and the jackpot was split three ways. With the "Match 4" and "Match 5" prizes, though, Klincewicz's syndicate made a small profit overall.
__________________
(*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, Pubbie Party, Repubs "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 07:33 AM   #42
Dan O.
Penultimate Amazing
 
Dan O.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 11,212
There have been a number of lottery syndicate stories including in the US. Any lottery system that has a progressive pot will eventually reach the point where the estimated payout exceeds the cost of the ticket. A syndicate has a double advantage in that not only can they cover the entire board without duplication, they also get a hugh tax advantage that allows them to deduct the cost of all the tickets. For most individual players, they won't have enough winnings to cover their losses and the winners will only have a small cost of the ticket that can be deducted.
__________________
A text message was found to have been sent at 8:35PM of November 1st by KNOX's number to that of her co-defendant Patrick, in which she wrote "Ci vediamo dopo" ["See you later" or lit: "We'll see each other after"] thus confirming that in the following hours KNOX would find herself with Patrick in the apartment where the victim was. -- Prosecutor Giuliano Mignini (Order for arrests)

Last edited by Dan O.; 31st January 2012 at 07:35 AM.
Dan O. is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 07:38 AM   #43
NoahFence
Psycho Kitty
 
NoahFence's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Patriot Nation
Posts: 11,326
I once bought 5 10 dollar scratch tickets after winning $100 on a 2 dollar.

One of the biggest myths was that the beginning and ending of the book was a no-go. You've probably seen people ask for the ticket #s for this reason. When they gave me the tickets, I noticed that they were #'s 001-005. I brought them home anyway, resigned to my fate.

Got $100, $50, $50, $40, $500

I am not kidding. Needless to say I no longer believe in lottery myths.
__________________
Our truest life is when we are in our dreams awake.

-Henry David Thoreau
NoahFence is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 07:54 AM   #44
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
 
Pixel42's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Wiltshire, UK
Posts: 5,591
I would imagine your best chance of not having to share the payout if you do win is to pick whatever numbers came up the previous week. They have exactly the same chance of coming up this week as any other combination, but you'll likely to be the only person playing them.
__________________
"The correct scientific response to anything that is not understood is always to look harder for the explanation, not give up and assume a supernatural cause". David Attenborough.
Pixel42 is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 08:12 AM   #45
Ladewig
Hipster alien
 
Ladewig's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: not measurable
Posts: 18,926
Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
I would imagine your best chance of not having to share the payout if you do win is to pick whatever numbers came up the previous week. They have exactly the same chance of coming up this week as any other combination, but you'll likely to be the only person playing them.
Ah but what if someone else has the same idea. Obviously you should use the numbers not from the previous draw, but the draw before the previous draw. Oh wait, someone else might have that idea - use the numbers from the draw before that one, that's the way to ensure no one requests your combination of numbers.
Ladewig is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 08:18 AM   #46
Ladewig
Hipster alien
 
Ladewig's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: not measurable
Posts: 18,926
Originally Posted by gumboot View Post
Obviously, the odds of drawing any specific set of numbers is identical to drawing any other specific set of numbers and I think people understand this.
Do you have any evidence to support this assertion?

I am not talking about the odds, I am talking about your claim that the general population understands the point you were making. Here in the U.S., there is a great deal of mathematical illiteracy. Actually, the fact that these types of lotteries exist at all is prima facie evidence of such innumeracy.
Ladewig is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 08:21 AM   #47
alexi_drago
Muse
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 682
Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
I would imagine your best chance of not having to share the payout if you do win is to pick whatever numbers came up the previous week. They have exactly the same chance of coming up this week as any other combination, but you'll likely to be the only person playing them.
You think you're the only person to have thought of this?

In the uk lottery, nearly 58% of the draws have at least 1 number from the previous draw.

But if you'd played that from the start, out of 1680 draws you'd have matched

3 balls 28 times
4 balls 1 time
__________________
Thank you for flying Delta Business Express. We hope you enjoyed giving us the business as much as we enjoyed taking you for a ride. Remember, nobody loves you, or your money, more than Delta.
alexi_drago is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 08:28 AM   #48
epepke
Philosopher
 
epepke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 8,184
The chance of winning is exactly the same. The chance of winning anything is significantly lower. Lotteries report that 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are the most commonly picked numbers. So if you win, you can expect to split the prize with hundreds of people.
__________________
"It probably came from a sticky dark planet far, far away."
- Godzilla versus Hedora

"There's no evidence that the 9-11 attacks (whoever did them) were deliberately attacking civilians. On the contrary the targets appear to have been chosen as military."
-DavidByron
epepke is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 08:45 AM   #49
jhunter1163
Beer-swilling semiliterate
Moderator
 
jhunter1163's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Room 118, Bohemian Grove Marriott
Posts: 19,773
This reminds me of our family story:

In the group of 14 people made up of my parents and their five children and my uncle's seven children, three share May 23 as a birthday, two share November 19 (including myself) and two share March 2. Now, I know that it only takes 23 people to get to a 50% probability of a match, but the odds of all these matches occurring in such a small group has to be pretty high* (I think it has been calculated at something like 1 in 750,000.)

* And yes, I know that since it's happened, the odds are 1, so we can dispense with that right now.
jhunter1163 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 08:58 AM   #50
alexi_drago
Muse
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 682
Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
This reminds me of our family story:

In the group of 14 people made up of my parents and their five children and my uncle's seven children, three share May 23 as a birthday, two share November 19 (including myself) and two share March 2. Now, I know that it only takes 23 people to get to a 50% probability of a match, but the odds of all these matches occurring in such a small group has to be pretty high* (I think it has been calculated at something like 1 in 750,000.)

* And yes, I know that since it's happened, the odds are 1, so we can dispense with that right now.
Hmm, valentines day and something else the people in your family celebrate around july/august?
__________________
Thank you for flying Delta Business Express. We hope you enjoyed giving us the business as much as we enjoyed taking you for a ride. Remember, nobody loves you, or your money, more than Delta.
alexi_drago is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 10:18 AM   #51
Comrade Raptor
Critical Thinker
 
Comrade Raptor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 399
Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
I once bought 5 10 dollar scratch tickets after winning $100 on a 2 dollar.

One of the biggest myths was that the beginning and ending of the book was a no-go. You've probably seen people ask for the ticket #s for this reason. When they gave me the tickets, I noticed that they were #'s 001-005. I brought them home anyway, resigned to my fate.

Got $100, $50, $50, $40, $500

I am not kidding. Needless to say I no longer believe in lottery myths.
I can beat that.

One time I was coming home from work with a work-buddy and we stopped into the all-night gas station. I saw that there were 3 pull-tab tickets left from the special Christmas batch. Never bought them before. So I said, give me those and if I win $100 on each we'll split it 3 ways.

And I did.

So I followed through.

Think my work-buddy had more fun sharing that story than I did.
Comrade Raptor is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 11:40 AM   #52
Skeptic Ginger
formerly skeptigirl
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Shifting through paradigms
Posts: 42,930
Originally Posted by gumboot View Post
...
Obviously, the odds of drawing any specific set of numbers is identical to drawing any other specific set of numbers and I think people understand this. At the same time, I think people understand that the odds are much lower of drawing a "specific set" than a "random set". (This relates to the birthday paradox). .....
The Birthday Paradox
Quote:
The birthday problem asks whether any of the people in a given group has a birthday matching any of the others — not one in particular. (See "Same birthday as you" below for an analysis of this much less surprising alternative problem.)
In the example given earlier, a list of 23 people, comparing the birthday of the first person on the list to the others allows 22 chances for a matching birthday (The second person on the list to the others allows 21 chances for a matching birthday, third person has 20 chances, and so on. Hence 22+21+20+....+1 = 253), but comparing every person to all of the others allows 253 distinct chances (combinations): in a group of 23 people there are pairs.
Presuming all birthdays are equally probable,[2][3][4] the probability of a given birthday for a person chosen from the entire population at random is 1/365 (ignoring Leap Day, February 29). Although the pairings in a group of 23 people are not statistically equivalent to 253 pairs chosen independently, the birthday paradox becomes less surprising if a group is thought of in terms of the number of possible pairs, rather than as the number of individuals.
So are you saying people wrongly understand that the odds are much lower of drawing a "specific set" than a "random set" or are you saying you believe the odds are lower and it is common knowledge?

I'm confused.
__________________
(*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, Pubbie Party, Repubs "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 11:47 AM   #53
Skeptic Ginger
formerly skeptigirl
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Shifting through paradigms
Posts: 42,930
Originally Posted by Comrade Raptor View Post
I can beat that.

One time I was coming home from work with a work-buddy and we stopped into the all-night gas station. I saw that there were 3 pull-tab tickets left from the special Christmas batch. Never bought them before. So I said, give me those and if I win $100 on each we'll split it 3 ways.

And I did.

So I followed through.

Think my work-buddy had more fun sharing that story than I did.
I can beat that story with my true anecdote. I was hitching across Canada with a friend and we were just out of Banff unable to get a ride because there were so many other people in the same spot. So we went hiking off down the road instead. A few miles later my shoe fell apart. It was totally unusable and there was nothing I could do but hike barefoot which was going to be seriously difficult. But literally right there on the side of the road was a pair of Puma tennis shoes that fit perfectly. They were so comfortable they became my favorite shoes until they wore out.

What are the odds?
__________________
(*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, Pubbie Party, Repubs "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 11:50 AM   #54
Skeptic Ginger
formerly skeptigirl
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Shifting through paradigms
Posts: 42,930
Originally Posted by Comrade Raptor View Post
I can beat that.

One time I was coming home from work with a work-buddy and we stopped into the all-night gas station. I saw that there were 3 pull-tab tickets left from the special Christmas batch. Never bought them before. So I said, give me those and if I win $100 on each we'll split it 3 ways.

And I did.

So I followed through.

Think my work-buddy had more fun sharing that story than I did.
OK, I'm skeptical here. I do believe you but I have a question. Those pull tabs have [x] number of guaranteed wins and they usually cross off the numbers as they are won. With 3 winning tabs left wouldn't anyone have been able to see there were 3 $100s left and only 3 tabs? I must be having a false memory about seeing x'ed out numbers on pull tab cases.
__________________
(*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, Pubbie Party, Repubs "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 11:54 AM   #55
epepke
Philosopher
 
epepke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 8,184
Originally Posted by alexi_drago View Post
You think you're the only person to have thought of this?

In the uk lottery, nearly 58% of the draws have at least 1 number from the previous draw.
There's a fun hack based on this. It works in Florida, at least. Wait until the winning numbers are announced and go gt a ticket with the same numbers before midnight. Show it to someone who is really into the lottery, and they go into fits of apoplexy until they note the time (which they never do, but you can tell them and laugh at them).

People just aren't thinking here.
__________________
"It probably came from a sticky dark planet far, far away."
- Godzilla versus Hedora

"There's no evidence that the 9-11 attacks (whoever did them) were deliberately attacking civilians. On the contrary the targets appear to have been chosen as military."
-DavidByron
epepke is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 12:23 PM   #56
alexi_drago
Muse
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 682
I know that any combination is as likely as any other combination so the numbers from the previous draw have the same odds as any other combination but is it a different question to ask what are the odds of the same six numbers showing up in two consecutive draws?
__________________
Thank you for flying Delta Business Express. We hope you enjoyed giving us the business as much as we enjoyed taking you for a ride. Remember, nobody loves you, or your money, more than Delta.
alexi_drago is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 12:36 PM   #57
Matty1973
Critical Thinker
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: London
Posts: 253
Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
This reminds me of our family story:

In the group of 14 people made up of my parents and their five children and my uncle's seven children, three share May 23 as a birthday, two share November 19 (including myself) and two share March 2. Now, I know that it only takes 23 people to get to a 50% probability of a match, but the odds of all these matches occurring in such a small group has to be pretty high* (I think it has been calculated at something like 1 in 750,000.)
Based on the distribution of birthdays in your family would I be correct in saying you are 48 years old?

All the best

Psychic Matt
Matty1973 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 05:18 PM   #58
Brian-M
Daydreamer
 
Brian-M's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Downunder
Posts: 5,845
Originally Posted by alexi_drago View Post
In the uk lottery, nearly 58% of the draws have at least 1 number from the previous draw.
Assuming you count the two supplementary numbers, that's 8 numbers per draw.

I'm guessing that if nearly 58% of the draws have at least 1 of the 8 numbers from the previous draw, then nearly 58% of the draws would have at least 1 of the 8 numbers from any given set of 8 possible numbers.
__________________
"That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim

Last edited by Brian-M; 31st January 2012 at 05:19 PM.
Brian-M is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 05:24 PM   #59
jhunter1163
Beer-swilling semiliterate
Moderator
 
jhunter1163's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Room 118, Bohemian Grove Marriott
Posts: 19,773
Originally Posted by Matty1973 View Post
Based on the distribution of birthdays in your family would I be correct in saying you are 48 years old?

All the best

Psychic Matt
You would be. I'd be duly amazed if I didn't have the month and year of my birth in my username.

ETA: And if I didn't have my date of birth in my public profile. It isn't exactly a secret.

Last edited by jhunter1163; 31st January 2012 at 05:26 PM.
jhunter1163 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 05:47 PM   #60
alexi_drago
Muse
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 682
Originally Posted by Brian-M View Post
Assuming you count the two supplementary numbers, that's 8 numbers per draw.

I'm guessing that if nearly 58% of the draws have at least 1 of the 8 numbers from the previous draw, then nearly 58% of the draws would have at least 1 of the 8 numbers from any given set of 8 possible numbers.
It's just counting the 6 main numbers, there's only 1 bonus number but I was ignoring that.
__________________
Thank you for flying Delta Business Express. We hope you enjoyed giving us the business as much as we enjoyed taking you for a ride. Remember, nobody loves you, or your money, more than Delta.
alexi_drago is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 06:52 PM   #61
pilsan
Student
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 32
It's a good idea to buy your lottery ticket as close to the draw as possible.
Although this doesn't increase your chances of winning, if you do win there's less chance of you dying between the time you bought the ticket and the time you realise you've won.

Phil
pilsan is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 08:11 PM   #62
Skeptic Ginger
formerly skeptigirl
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Shifting through paradigms
Posts: 42,930
Originally Posted by pilsan View Post
It's a good idea to buy your lottery ticket as close to the draw as possible.
Although this doesn't increase your chances of winning, if you do win there's less chance of you dying between the time you bought the ticket and the time you realise you've won.

Phil


I love a unique perspective.
__________________
(*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, Pubbie Party, Repubs "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 08:47 PM   #63
Brian-M
Daydreamer
 
Brian-M's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Downunder
Posts: 5,845
Originally Posted by alexi_drago View Post
It's just counting the 6 main numbers, there's only 1 bonus number but I was ignoring that.
Well then, six numbers. But the same principle applies.

(Over here we have six main numbers, and two supplemental numbers for the lesser prizes.)
__________________
"That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim

Last edited by Brian-M; 31st January 2012 at 09:23 PM.
Brian-M is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 08:56 PM   #64
h.g.Whiz
Illuminator
 
h.g.Whiz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Egoville
Posts: 3,464
Deleted
__________________
Reading this sentence is ineluctable.

Last edited by h.g.Whiz; 31st January 2012 at 09:09 PM. Reason: just because
h.g.Whiz is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 09:00 PM   #65
h.g.Whiz
Illuminator
 
h.g.Whiz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Egoville
Posts: 3,464
Deleted
__________________
Reading this sentence is ineluctable.

Last edited by h.g.Whiz; 31st January 2012 at 09:03 PM.
h.g.Whiz is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 09:11 PM   #66
ynot
Philosopher
 
ynot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 5,143
Originally Posted by pilsan View Post
It's a good idea to buy your lottery ticket as close to the draw as possible.
Although this doesn't increase your chances of winning, if you do win there's less chance of you dying between the time you bought the ticket and the time you realise you've won.

Phil
That works for selfish people but the longer you hold a ticket before it’s drawn then the greater the chances that you will die before it’s drawn and your family will inherit the winnings. The sooner you buy the ticket the longer the ticket is in the draw.
__________________
Rumours of a god’s existence have been greatly exaggerated.
My post are all (IMO) unless stated otherwise.
ynot is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 09:21 PM   #67
ynot
Philosopher
 
ynot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 5,143
In New Zealand Lotto is 6 numbers from 40 and there is a Powerball draw which is 1 from 10. The odds of winning First Division are 1 in 3,838,380 and the odds of winning First Division plus Powerball are 1 in 38,383,800.

Recently a single ticket won First Division 10 times and Powerball once. What the winner had done was repeat to the same numbers ten times for First Division and cover the Powerball numbers with each line as below

Lotto - Powerball
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 3
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 4
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 5
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 9
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 10

This reduces the chances of winning First Division for the number of lines taken but it guarantees that winning first division is also winning Powerball. In other words the odds of winning Powerball reduce from 1 in 38,383,800 to 1 in 3,838,380. There are also other advantages gained.
__________________
Rumours of a god’s existence have been greatly exaggerated.
My post are all (IMO) unless stated otherwise.

Last edited by ynot; 31st January 2012 at 09:35 PM.
ynot is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 10:10 PM   #68
Comrade Raptor
Critical Thinker
 
Comrade Raptor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 399
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
OK, I'm skeptical here. I do believe you but I have a question. Those pull tabs have [x] number of guaranteed wins and they usually cross off the numbers as they are won. With 3 winning tabs left wouldn't anyone have been able to see there were 3 $100s left and only 3 tabs? I must be having a false memory about seeing x'ed out numbers on pull tab cases.
I don't mind you being skeptical, it being difficult to furnish proof of an event from ten years ago when they don't even let you keep the stubs.

However, to address your other point I've never seen a posted list crossing off the numbers won. This might be a regional habit, or something they do now (I don't pay attention to the tabs, I only bought them this once). I did, however, ask the guy behind the counter how many $100 ones were usually in a batch and he did say three - but I don't know how accurate that is, since he was just a worker bee behind the counter and may have been influenced by the event.

Mind you, if I'd known I was going to win $300 I would have kept my mouth shut. Instead I got taught a lesson about making a joke.
Comrade Raptor is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 10:35 PM   #69
Dan O.
Penultimate Amazing
 
Dan O.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 11,212
Originally Posted by ynot View Post
In New Zealand Lotto is 6 numbers from 40 and there is a Powerball draw which is 1 from 10. The odds of winning First Division are 1 in 3,838,380 and the odds of winning First Division plus Powerball are 1 in 38,383,800.

Recently a single ticket won First Division 10 times and Powerball once. What the winner had done was repeat to the same numbers ten times for First Division and cover the Powerball numbers with each line as below

Lotto - Powerball
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 3
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 4
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 5
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 9
1 2 3 4 5 6 - 10

This reduces the chances of winning First Division for the number of lines taken but it guarantees that winning first division is also winning Powerball. In other words the odds of winning Powerball reduce from 1 in 38,383,800 to 1 in 3,838,380. There are also other advantages gained.

There are no advantages in playing this way. The odds of winning powerball are exactly the same as if he had chosen 10 non-overlapping sets. The chances of winning First division in the standard lotto are 1/10th that of making 10 independent picks but the payoff cannot ever be 10 times the payoff of a single draw and could be no better than a single draw.
__________________
A text message was found to have been sent at 8:35PM of November 1st by KNOX's number to that of her co-defendant Patrick, in which she wrote "Ci vediamo dopo" ["See you later" or lit: "We'll see each other after"] thus confirming that in the following hours KNOX would find herself with Patrick in the apartment where the victim was. -- Prosecutor Giuliano Mignini (Order for arrests)
Dan O. is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 10:58 PM   #70
ynot
Philosopher
 
ynot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 5,143
Originally Posted by Dan O. View Post
There are no advantages in playing this way. The odds of winning powerball are exactly the same as if he had chosen 10 non-overlapping sets. The chances of winning First division in the standard lotto are 1/10th that of making 10 independent picks but the payoff cannot ever be 10 times the payoff of a single draw and could be no better than a single draw.
In the NZ Big Wednesday Lotto you pick 6 numbers for one prize then there's a heads and tails toss for the major prize. Are you saying there's no advantage to covering both heads and tails with the same numbers on two tickets? You seem to be saying that buying two tickets with different numbers is as "good" as covering the coin toss with two tickets of the same numbers (one ticket all heads and one ticket all tails).
__________________
Rumours of a god’s existence have been greatly exaggerated.
My post are all (IMO) unless stated otherwise.

Last edited by ynot; 31st January 2012 at 11:25 PM.
ynot is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 31st January 2012, 11:17 PM   #71
ynot
Philosopher
 
ynot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 5,143
Originally Posted by Dan O. View Post
There are no advantages in playing this way. The odds of winning powerball are exactly the same as if he had chosen 10 non-overlapping sets. The chances of winning First division in the standard lotto are 1/10th that of making 10 independent picks but the payoff cannot ever be 10 times the payoff of a single draw and could be no better than a single draw.
The normal First Division prize is 1 million. Powerball can jackpot to 30 million.
__________________
Rumours of a god’s existence have been greatly exaggerated.
My post are all (IMO) unless stated otherwise.
ynot is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st February 2012, 03:00 AM   #72
Brian-M
Daydreamer
 
Brian-M's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Downunder
Posts: 5,845
Originally Posted by ynot View Post
In the NZ Big Wednesday Lotto you pick 6 numbers for one prize then there's a heads and tails toss for the major prize. Are you saying there's no advantage to covering both heads and tails with the same numbers on two tickets? You seem to be saying that buying two tickets with different numbers is as "good" as covering the coin toss with two tickets of the same numbers (one ticket all heads and one ticket all tails).
If he is, that makes sense to me. Buying two tickets with different numbers doubles the chances of getting all six numbers right, but halves the chances of getting the right coin-toss, so it works out the same.
__________________
"That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim
Brian-M is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st February 2012, 03:09 AM   #73
Southwind17
Illuminator
 
Southwind17's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Location: Location
Posts: 4,605
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I can beat that story with my true anecdote. I was hitching across Canada with a friend and we were just out of Banff unable to get a ride because there were so many other people in the same spot. So we went hiking off down the road instead. A few miles later my shoe fell apart. It was totally unusable and there was nothing I could do but hike barefoot which was going to be seriously difficult. But literally right there on the side of the road was a pair of Puma tennis shoes that fit perfectly. They were so comfortable they became my favorite shoes until they wore out.

What are the odds?
About 15 million to 1, which is greater than the odds of my true anecdote, and which, hence, trumps yours:

I took a vacation in Rome. One afternoon I bought a circular 'coin-like' pendant from a market stall to put on my existing neck chain. Unfortunately, however, it didn't have a metal split ring on it, only a hole in it, so I determined to locate a small split ring later, possibly from a jewellers.

After returning to the hotel, however, whilst heading to the bathroom to take a shower, I stood on something with my bare foot on the hard wooden floor boards. Upon examination it was, of course ... a metal split ring, perfectly sized.

What are the odds? Around 20 million to 1, I'd say, give or take.
__________________
The views expressed here do not necessarily represent the unanimous view of all parts of my mind
"Always" and "never" are two words that you should always remember never to use.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.
Why is it that when I ask for a pair of hands a brain comes attached?
Southwind17 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st February 2012, 03:19 AM   #74
Southwind17
Illuminator
 
Southwind17's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Location: Location
Posts: 4,605
Originally Posted by jasonpatterson View Post
As has been mentioned repeatedly, yes, you're right, any given set of 6 numbers in a fair lottery is equally likely to occur.

What is true, however, is that any set of 6 numbers with a simple pattern is less likely to occur than one of the sets of 6 numbers with no obvious pattern. Obvious might not be the best adjective, but there are far more combinations of the (3, 8, 22, 24, 37, 45) variety (i.e. no obvious pattern) than there are of the (1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11) variety. There are an awful lot of obvious patterns, to be sure, but there are far more sets that have none.
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
No.
I think what jp means is that a combination of patterned numbers is less likely than a combination of un-patterned numbers, which, of course, is correct. He just didn't word it very well.

Originally Posted by jasonpatterson View Post
If the game is fair, there's no way to increase your chances of winning aside from playing more times. Any given ticket is as likely as any other to win. I had to look up "lottery wheels," to be honest, but they just appear to be a mechanism for generating lots of lottery combinations.
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
No.

You don't seem to understand probability.
"No" to the first/second sentence or third? If the first, he's correct, and certainly does, seemingly, understand probability theory, at least to that extent.
__________________
The views expressed here do not necessarily represent the unanimous view of all parts of my mind
"Always" and "never" are two words that you should always remember never to use.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.
Why is it that when I ask for a pair of hands a brain comes attached?
Southwind17 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st February 2012, 04:06 AM   #75
KarlG
Critical Thinker
 
KarlG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Cumbria, UK
Posts: 497
Originally Posted by alexi_drago View Post
Hmm, valentines day and something else the people in your family celebrate around july/august?
I was born on the 13th of april and my sister on the 12th of April, different years or course. My mothers birthday is on July the 15th, i guess i know what she got for her birthday those years
__________________
“If God wanted us to believe in him, he’d exist.” ~ Linda Smith.

Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit. Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad
KarlG is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st February 2012, 08:19 AM   #76
Dan O.
Penultimate Amazing
 
Dan O.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 11,212
Originally Posted by ynot View Post
The normal First Division prize is 1 million. Powerball can jackpot to 30 million.
The normal First Division prize is divided by the number of winning tickets. By competing with yourself you are increasing your costs faster than you are increasing your winnings. You are paying 50¢ per ticket for the standard lotto. About 34% of the pool is allocated to the First Division prize. The chance of winning the First Division prize is about 1 in 4 million. On average, the $1M prize is shared with one other winner. With these numbers, the expected First Division payoff (Average winnings divided by cost) is ($1M / 2 * 1/4M) / (50¢ * .34) or about 73%. By competing against yourself, you win 10 of 11 shares of the prize at 10 times the cost which drops the payoff to a messily 13%.
__________________
A text message was found to have been sent at 8:35PM of November 1st by KNOX's number to that of her co-defendant Patrick, in which she wrote "Ci vediamo dopo" ["See you later" or lit: "We'll see each other after"] thus confirming that in the following hours KNOX would find herself with Patrick in the apartment where the victim was. -- Prosecutor Giuliano Mignini (Order for arrests)
Dan O. is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st February 2012, 09:57 AM   #77
Pup
Illuminator
 
Pup's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 4,517
Originally Posted by Dan O. View Post
There have been a number of lottery syndicate stories including in the US. Any lottery system that has a progressive pot will eventually reach the point where the estimated payout exceeds the cost of the ticket. A syndicate has a double advantage in that not only can they cover the entire board without duplication, they also get a hugh tax advantage that allows them to deduct the cost of all the tickets. For most individual players, they won't have enough winnings to cover their losses and the winners will only have a small cost of the ticket that can be deducted.
I don't see how the taxes would be an advantage. To oversimplify:

Guy buys $1 ticket, wins $1,000,000, pays taxes on $999,999 at a rate of 35%, nets $649,999.35

Syndicate buys $600,000 worth of tickets, wins $1,000,000, pays taxes on $400,000 at a rate of 35%, nets $260,000.

So the syndicate is behind.

Let's say they both lose because the syndicate didn't quite cover all the numbers (ouch!).

Guy buys $1 ticket and loses, but can deduct $1 from (future) winnings, so lost $1 but will save 35 cents in future taxes, net loss 65 cents.

Syndicate buys $600,000 worth of tickets, loses, so lost $600,000 but will save $210,000 in future taxes, net loss $390,000.

The syndicate is still behind.
Pup is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st February 2012, 11:16 AM   #78
ynot
Philosopher
 
ynot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 5,143
Originally Posted by Brian-M View Post
If he is, that makes sense to me. Buying two tickets with different numbers doubles the chances of getting all six numbers right, but halves the chances of getting the right coin-toss, so it works out the same.
Buying two tickets in the Big Wednesday doubles the chances (attempts at winning) the first draw but it doesn’t halve the odds. The winning odds of the first ticket are virtually the same as for the second. Covering the second coin toss draw with the two tickets changes the odds from being 1 in 2 to being a guaranteed win.
__________________
Rumours of a god’s existence have been greatly exaggerated.
My post are all (IMO) unless stated otherwise.
ynot is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st February 2012, 11:21 AM   #79
ynot
Philosopher
 
ynot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 5,143
Originally Posted by Dan O. View Post
The normal First Division prize is divided by the number of winning tickets. By competing with yourself you are increasing your costs faster than you are increasing your winnings. You are paying 50¢ per ticket for the standard lotto. About 34% of the pool is allocated to the First Division prize. The chance of winning the First Division prize is about 1 in 4 million. On average, the $1M prize is shared with one other winner. With these numbers, the expected First Division payoff (Average winnings divided by cost) is ($1M / 2 * 1/4M) / (50¢ * .34) or about 73%. By competing against yourself, you win 10 of 11 shares of the prize at 10 times the cost which drops the payoff to a messily 13%.
I see that as being one of the “other advantages”. If there are multiple winners of First Division the prize money is shared equally between all winning tickets. As you hold ten winning tickets you get ten shares instead of only one (I don‘t care how “messy” that is).
__________________
Rumours of a god’s existence have been greatly exaggerated.
My post are all (IMO) unless stated otherwise.
ynot is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st February 2012, 06:18 PM   #80
Skeptic Ginger
formerly skeptigirl
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Shifting through paradigms
Posts: 42,930
Originally Posted by Southwind17 View Post
About 15 million to 1, which is greater than the odds of my true anecdote, and which, hence, trumps yours:

I took a vacation in Rome. One afternoon I bought a circular 'coin-like' pendant from a market stall to put on my existing neck chain. Unfortunately, however, it didn't have a metal split ring on it, only a hole in it, so I determined to locate a small split ring later, possibly from a jewellers.

After returning to the hotel, however, whilst heading to the bathroom to take a shower, I stood on something with my bare foot on the hard wooden floor boards. Upon examination it was, of course ... a metal split ring, perfectly sized.

What are the odds? Around 20 million to 1, I'd say, give or take.
On the same trip we found a baggie of pot on the side of the road including a couple already rolled joints. Since we didn't bring any with us crossing the border that was great luck. Then one night we put our bed rolls down after dark. Upon awakening we found we were in a area thick with cacti yet we didn't have a scratch on either of us. More good luck. We ran out of money but stumbled into a local impending 3 day concert with Tina Turner as the headliner. We both got jobs and came away with more than enough money to continue. And once when we couldn't get a ride after dark my friend said if we light a candle a truck driver would stop. Sure enough we did and we got a ride with a truck driver within a couple minutes.

By themselves, the odds were low but all those things one one trip? Absolutely fantastic.

This is a true story, BTW.
__________________
(*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, Pubbie Party, Repubs "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

JREF Forum » General Topics » Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 12:45 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
© 2001-2013, James Randi Educational Foundation. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.