Everything will be all right in the end

reverebison · 8th June 2012, 04:51 PM

what are the odds:

1. that you were born a highly evolved human being after 4.5 billion years of life on this earth. Billions of consciousness born and die every day on this earth and after 4 billion years of that, you were born.

2. You are here on this planet called Earth, that of all the dead planets in our universe, you happened by chance to come to be born on the only life planet arround for light years, maybe forever.

3. that you were born at all in a universe created once by a big bang, a universe some experts say eventually dies and dies forever.

What are the odds that you were so lucky?

To be born once in a universe that just lives once on a planet created once means you have overcome odds which cannot be measured. That to say you are special is the greatest of understatements.

I am sorry my friend, but no one is that lucky, and especially you are not that special. The great odds against you ever coming into existence also answer lifes greatest questions.

You were not lucky, you were inevitable. Your existence was not a fluke, it was guaranteed. The universe is not born once, it knows not the definition of once. It is the utter strangeness of infinity which rules...... infinity, something we have not the slightest understanding of.

This thing all arround us, time, the universe goes on forever in an endless cycle and you prove it.

The cycle dictates that your consciousness did not just come into existence recently, but has always existed. There is no other explaination, nothing to explain the incredible odds that explain you happening. You are born fully naked and rich with amnesia. You die the same. But the matter and energy and forces which made your consciousness do not die. And from the greatest of odds, the smallest of chances mixed with endless time, they inevitably and exactly return. And they do so infinitely.

So when it comes time to die, relax, everything will be all right in the end. For when you look at and admire the healthy and the young, you are seeing just parts of a cycle, an endless cycle in which you are an integral part of.

And your death is far from the end

Foster Zygote · 8th June 2012, 04:54 PM

Originally Posted by reverebison

what are the odds:

1. that you were born a highly evolved human being after 4.5 billion years of life on this earth. Billions of consciousness born and die every day on this earth and after 4 billion years of that, you were born.

2. You are here on this planet called Earth, that of all the dead planets in our universe, you happened by chance to come to be born on the only life planet arround for light years, maybe forever.

3. that you were born at all in a universe created once by a big bang, a universe some experts say eventually dies and dies forever.

What are the odds that you were so lucky?

I am sorry my friend, but no one is that lucky. The great odds against you ever coming into existence also answer lifes greatest questions.

You were not lucky, you were inevitable. Your existence was a guarantee. The universe is not finite, it is infinite, only this can explain the ridiculous odds known as you.

This thing all arround us, time, the universe goes on forever in an endless cycle and you prove it.

The cycle dictates that your consciousness did not just come into existence, but has always existed. You are born from the tiniest of odds, which in an infinite universe are guaranteed to happen. You die and the matter and energy and forces which made your consciousness remain. And from the greatest of odds, the smallest of chances they return. And they do so infinitely.

So when it is time to die, relax, everything will be all right in the end. For when you look at infants and you look at children, you are seeing parts of the cycle, and endless cycle in which you are an integral part of.

And your death is the farthest thing from the end.

Might I suggest that you study probability and statistics.

Skeptic Ginger · 8th June 2012, 05:01 PM

Fell free to believe in your god explanation, revere, I'll stick with the more successful science, thank you.

Nay_Sayer · 8th June 2012, 05:02 PM

The problem with these "look at he odds!" arguments is that they are all after the fact.

Lets say I roll 10 dice and get this result: 3,9,6,6,1,2,1,7,3,5 what are the odds that I would roll that exact combination? Well it was mearly 1:1 it isn't until after we see the results that we can come up with the statistics to say how improbable it is to
happen again.

To answer your question, the odds of all that happening for me? 1:1 The odds of it happening exactly the same way much higher.

Tinyal · 8th June 2012, 05:02 PM

What are the odds, you say?

That's a very, very easy question to answer.

The odds are 1-to-1, as we are most definitely here.

Just because you don't 'feel' or 'believe' something is possible, or even likely, has no relation to reality.

Next question?

Kid Eager · 8th June 2012, 05:12 PM

Originally Posted by reverebison

what are the odds:

1. that you were born a highly evolved human being after 4.5 billion years of life on this earth. Billions of consciousness born and die every day on this earth and after 4 billion years of that, you were born.

2. You are here on this planet called Earth, that of all the dead planets in our universe, you happened by chance to come to be born on the only life planet arround for light years, maybe forever.

3. that you were born at all in a universe created once by a big bang, a universe some experts say eventually dies and dies forever.

What are the odds that you were so lucky?

I am sorry my friend, but no one is that lucky. The great odds against you ever coming into existence also answer lifes greatest questions.

You were not lucky, you were inevitable. Your existence was not a fluke, it was guaranteed. The universe is not born once, it knows not the definition of once. It is the utter strangeness of infinity which rules...... infinity, something we have not the slightest understanding of.

This thing all arround us, time, the universe goes on forever in an endless cycle and you prove it.

The cycle dictates that your consciousness did not just come into existence, but has always existed. You are born from the tiniest of odds, which in an infinite universe are guaranteed to happen. You die, but the matter and energy and forces which made your consciousness do not. And from the greatest of odds, the smallest of chances they inevitably and exactly return. And they do so infinitely.

So when comes time to die, relax, everything will be all right in the end. For when you look at and admire the healthy and the young, you seeing just parts of a cycle, an endless cycle in which you are an integral part of.

And your death is the farthest thing from the end.

So eat all the steak you want - it doesn't matter.

Brian-M · 8th June 2012, 05:32 PM

Just posting to say that the odds are 1 in 1.

Others have beaten me to it, but I think this is answer is significant enough that it bears repeating.

kerikiwi · 8th June 2012, 06:58 PM

Originally Posted by reverebison

1. .... Billions of consciousness born and die every day on this earth and after 4 billion years of that, you were born.

2. You are here on this planet called Earth, that of all the dead planets in our universe, you happened by chance to come to be born on the only life planet arround for light years, maybe forever.

1. What?
2. What are the odds that you would be born on a dead planet?

Audible Click · 8th June 2012, 08:07 PM

Very poetic and reads well but your assumptions are astonishing.

psionl0 · 8th June 2012, 11:00 PM

Originally Posted by reverebison

So when it comes time to die, relax, everything will be all right in the end.

Obviously not something you got from the bible.

UncaStuart · 8th June 2012, 11:12 PM

Originally Posted by reverebison

This thing all arround us, time, the universe goes on forever in an endless cycle and you prove it.

So I guess there is no end to be all right in.

SezMe · 8th June 2012, 11:17 PM

Originally Posted by reverebison

... especially you are not that special.

How dare you ............! Hrruph! My dog knows better than that.

Quinn · 9th June 2012, 12:01 AM

I vaguely recall reading a book that had a section basically explaining that, statistically speaking, odds are very good that you, the reader, are dead right now. And I want to say it was by either Dawkins, Sagan or Douglas Adams. Can anyone help me fill in the details?

PS -- I saw a license plate today that said KAG-295. What are the odds?!?

SezMe · 9th June 2012, 12:25 AM

Can't help with the refs but the calculation is easy:

Age of the universe=14*10^9 (rounded for simplicity)
Age of typical person= 70

Probability that you're here now=.5*10^(-8)

License plate: Assuming 3 letters followed by 3 numbers= .6*10^(-7)

3point14 · 9th June 2012, 12:41 AM

Originally Posted by Tinyal

The odds are 1-to-1, as we are most definitely here.

I'm not!

Brian-M · 9th June 2012, 12:43 AM

Originally Posted by Quinn

I vaguely recall reading a book that had a section basically explaining that, statistically speaking, odds are very good that you, the reader, are dead right now. And I want to say it was by either Dawkins, Sagan or Douglas Adams. Can anyone help me fill in the details?

I can't help you with the source, but it's clearly a load of bollox.

Dead people can't read, so that there's zero chance that anyone reading anything is dead right now.

Twiler · 9th June 2012, 01:30 AM

Originally Posted by Brian-M

I can't help you with the source, but it's clearly a load of bollox.

Dead people can't read, so that there's zero chance that anyone reading anything is dead right now.

I'd imagine that would be the point. Reductio ad absurdum. An absurd conclusion indicates a flawed premise or flawed reasoning.

ingoa · 9th June 2012, 02:19 AM

100%

Why?

Why not!

I do not understand the question of the OP.

bjornart · 9th June 2012, 02:22 AM

Population of the universe

Quote:

None. Although you might see people from time to time, they are most likely products of your imagination. Simple mathematics tells us that the population of the Universe must be zero. Why? Well given that the volume of the universe is infinite there must be an infinite number of worlds. But not all of them are populated; therefore only a finite number are. Any finite number divided by infinity is as close to zero as makes no odds, therefore we can round the average population of the Universe to zero, and so the total population must be zero.

Douglas Adams

A far better writer of speculative fiction than the OP.

No better at basic math/statistics though, but at least he made it funny.

Quinn · 9th June 2012, 02:53 AM

To answer my own question from a few posts up: it was Dawkins' Unweaving the Rainbow:

Quote:

[T]he present moves from the past to the future, like a tiny spotlight, inching its way along a gigantic ruler of time. Everything behind the spotlight is in darkness, the darkness of the dead past. Everything ahead of the spotlight is in the darkness of the unknown future. The odds of your century being the one in the spotlight are the same as the odds that a penny, tossed down at random, will land on a particular ant crawling somewhere along the road from New York to San Francisco. In other words, it is overwhelmingly probable that you are dead.

In spite of these odds, you will notice that you are, as a matter of fact, alive. People whom the spotlight has already passed over, and people whom the spotlight has not reached, are in no position to read a book.

Lord Emsworth · 9th June 2012, 03:24 AM

Originally Posted by reverebison

The cycle dictates that your consciousness did not just come into existence recently, but has always existed. There is no other explaination, nothing to explain the incredible odds that explain you happening. You are born fully naked and rich with amnesia. You die the same. But the matter and energy and forces which made your consciousness do not die. And from the greatest of odds, the smallest of chances mixed with endless time, they inevitably and exactly return. And they do so infinitely.

That is not an explanation. Not even close.

Agatha · 9th June 2012, 03:44 AM

The probability is 1 in 1.

We are here, we are alive now, so what you are doing is known as the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, combined with an Argument from Incredulity. Your argument, such as it is, fails.

baron · 9th June 2012, 01:29 PM

Originally Posted by reverebison

what are the odds:

1. that you were born a highly evolved human being after 4.5 billion years of life on this earth. Billions of consciousness born and die every day on this earth and after 4 billion years of that, you were born.

2. You are here on this planet called Earth, that of all the dead planets in our universe, you happened by chance to come to be born on the only life planet arround for light years, maybe forever.

3. that you were born at all in a universe created once by a big bang, a universe some experts say eventually dies and dies forever.

1. The odds are 1:1, clearly.

2. It's impossible to be born on a dead planet so that doesn't make me in any way lucky. However, there might be billions of civilisations in our universe far more amenable to well-being than humanity, so perhaps I'm actually unlucky in that respect.

3. I'm not lucky to have been born at all because if I hadn't have been born there would be no 'me' to be unlucky (assuming your own definitions). If you disagree then perhaps you should address your question to Mr H.G. Fishweasel, who to the best of my knowledge has never been born and therefore by your definition is unlucky.

Halfcentaur · 9th June 2012, 03:12 PM

Quote:

The cycle dictates that your consciousness did not just come into existence recently, but has always existed. There is no other explaination, nothing to explain the incredible odds that explain you happening. You are born fully naked and rich with amnesia. You die the same. But the matter and energy and forces which made your consciousness do not die. And from the greatest of odds, the smallest of chances mixed with endless time, they inevitably and exactly return. And they do so infinitely.

Just because the stuff you are made of has existed for a long time does not mean your consciousness did too. How do you make this leap?

This is no different than claiming Windows7 or World of Warcraft always existed and always will exist.

Marduk · 10th June 2012, 12:11 AM

Originally Posted by Halfcentaur

This is no different than claiming Windows7 or World of Warcraft always existed and always will exist.

of course that is true for Starcraft

Halfcentaur · 10th June 2012, 02:19 AM

Originally Posted by Marduk

of course that is true for Starcraft

I actually think Blizzard's games will live on for eons, but not because the basic atoms and particles their data is stored upon and emerges from as a running process once existed a long time ago.

Nowhere Man · 10th June 2012, 07:11 AM

"You are a fluke of the universe; you have no right to be here, and whether you can hear it or not, the universe is laughing behind your back."

Fred

reverebison · 11th June 2012, 04:16 PM

Originally Posted by UncaStuart

So I guess there is no end to be all right in.

Yes, that is it. And you, the only intellectual of the bunch were the one who got it right.

Here is something else I will irritate you pseudo intellectuals JREF forum lifers with:

Your consciousness is existence. The universe cannot exist without consciousness. The universe cannot exist without your consciousness. Its the ultimate theory of relativity. The universe must be as old as your consciousness, which it is, infinitely old. The universe produces consciousness, and for a reason.

If any of you believe that you happen once, I will accuse you of not being as smart as you think you are. You either get it or you don't, and if you don't then your too stupid to know how stupid you are. You then go 5th grader and try to make hurtful comments, and even sillier, witty comments, trying to outwit the next nitwit. Meanwhile the circus gets funnier and funnier.

Oh, posting on this forum is so worthwhile.

SezMe · 11th June 2012, 04:48 PM

Originally Posted by reverebison

If any of you believe that you happen once, I will accuse you of not being as smart as you think you are. You either get it or you don't, and if you don't then your too stupid to know how stupid you are. You then go 5th grader and try to make hurtful comments, and even sillier, witty comments, trying to outwit the next nitwit. Meanwhile the circus gets funnier and funnier.

If any of you believe that you happen more than once, I will accuse you of not being as smart as you think you are. You either get it or you don't, and if you don't then your too stupid to know how stupid you are. You then go 5th grader and try to make hurtful comments, and even sillier, witty comments, trying to outwit the next nitwit. Meanwhile the circus gets funnier and funnier.

See how easy it is to play that stupid game.

Roger Ramjets · 11th June 2012, 05:13 PM

Originally Posted by reverebison

So when it comes time to die, relax, everything will be all right in the end.

So you don't mind if I kill you now?

Bill Thompson 75 · 11th June 2012, 08:30 PM

Originally Posted by Audible Click

Very poetic...

The Moody Blues agree that it's poetic, but not about Everything:

"Work away today, work away tomorrow.
Never comes the day for my love and me.
I feel her gently sighing as the evening slips away.
If only you knew what's inside of me now
You wouldn't want to know me somehow,
But you will love me tonight,
We alone will be alright, in the end."

keale · 11th June 2012, 08:43 PM

I close my eyes
Only for a moment, then the momen't gone
All my dreams
Pass before my eyes, a curiosity
Dust in the wind
All they are is dust in the wind Same old song
Just a drop of water in an endless sea
All we do
Crumbles to the ground, though we refuse to see
Dust in the wind
All we are is dust in the wind, ohh Now, don't hang on
Nothing lasts forever but the earth and sky
It slips away
And all your money won't another minute buy

Brian-M · 11th June 2012, 10:02 PM

Originally Posted by reverebison

Your consciousness is your subjective existence. ~~The~~ Your subjective universe cannot exist without consciousness. ~~The~~ Your subjective universe cannot exist without your consciousness. ~~Its the ultimate theory of relativity.~~ ~~The~~ Your subjective universe must be as old as your consciousness, which it is~~, infinitely old~~. The universe produces consciousness~~, and for a reason~~.

Fixed that paragraph for you. The way you had it, it was complete bollocks. The rest of the post needs fixing too.

Elypsis44 · 12th June 2012, 02:45 PM

Originally Posted by reverebison

what are the odds:

1. that you were born a highly evolved human being after 4.5 billion years of life on this earth. Billions of consciousness born and die every day on this earth and after 4 billion years of that, you were born.

2. You are here on this planet called Earth, that of all the dead planets in our universe, you happened by chance to come to be born on the only life planet arround for light years, maybe forever.

3. that you were born at all in a universe created once by a big bang, a universe some experts say eventually dies and dies forever.

What are the odds that you were so lucky?

To be born once in a universe that just lives once on a planet created once means you have overcome odds which cannot be measured. That to say you are special is the greatest of understatements.

I am sorry my friend, but no one is that lucky, and especially you are not that special. The great odds against you ever coming into existence also answer lifes greatest questions.

You were not lucky, you were inevitable. Your existence was not a fluke, it was guaranteed. The universe is not born once, it knows not the definition of once. It is the utter strangeness of infinity which rules...... infinity, something we have not the slightest understanding of.

This thing all arround us, time, the universe goes on forever in an endless cycle and you prove it.

The cycle dictates that your consciousness did not just come into existence recently, but has always existed. There is no other explaination, nothing to explain the incredible odds that explain you happening. You are born fully naked and rich with amnesia. You die the same. But the matter and energy and forces which made your consciousness do not die. And from the greatest of odds, the smallest of chances mixed with endless time, they inevitably and exactly return. And they do so infinitely.

So when it comes time to die, relax, everything will be all right in the end. For when you look at and admire the healthy and the young, you are seeing just parts of a cycle, an endless cycle in which you are an integral part of.

And your death is far from the end

For that, you get this.

Originally Posted by reverebison

Here is something else I will irritate you pseudo intellectuals JREF forum lifers with:

Where did I put that Troll-B-Gone™ spray?

DC · 12th June 2012, 03:00 PM

how are the odds to be born here of all those death planets and then win the lottery. amazin and still happens every week.

Psiload · 12th June 2012, 03:38 PM

In a nutshell...

What are the odds that the guy who won the lottery last week is a lottery winner?

SezMe · 12th June 2012, 04:05 PM

Check out this gal.

Elypsis44 · 12th June 2012, 04:51 PM

Originally Posted by SezMe

Check out this gal.

Or this guy.

patchbunny · 12th June 2012, 05:25 PM

Originally Posted by reverebison

Yes, that is it. And you, the only intellectual of the bunch were the one who got it right.

Here is something else I will irritate you pseudo intellectuals JREF forum lifers with:

Your consciousness is existence. The universe cannot exist without consciousness. The universe cannot exist without your consciousness. Its the ultimate theory of relativity. The universe must be as old as your consciousness, which it is, infinitely old. The universe produces consciousness, and for a reason.

Evidence?

Halfcentaur · 12th June 2012, 05:50 PM

Originally Posted by reverebison

Yes, that is it. And you, the only intellectual of the bunch were the one who got it right.

Here is something else I will irritate you pseudo intellectuals JREF forum lifers with:

Your consciousness is existence. The universe cannot exist without consciousness. The universe cannot exist without your consciousness. Its the ultimate theory of relativity. The universe must be as old as your consciousness, which it is, infinitely old. The universe produces consciousness, and for a reason.

If any of you believe that you happen once, I will accuse you of not being as smart as you think you are. You either get it or you don't, and if you don't then your too stupid to know how stupid you are. You then go 5th grader and try to make hurtful comments, and even sillier, witty comments, trying to outwit the next nitwit. Meanwhile the circus gets funnier and funnier.

Oh, posting on this forum is so worthwhile.

You value being smart or not being stupid far more than you value knowing what is true and what is not true.

8th June 2012, 04:51 PM	#1
reverebison Thinker Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 145	Everything will be all right in the end what are the odds: 1. that you were born a highly evolved human being after 4.5 billion years of life on this earth. Billions of consciousness born and die every day on this earth and after 4 billion years of that, you were born. 2. You are here on this planet called Earth, that of all the dead planets in our universe, you happened by chance to come to be born on the only life planet arround for light years, maybe forever. 3. that you were born at all in a universe created once by a big bang, a universe some experts say eventually dies and dies forever. What are the odds that you were so lucky? To be born once in a universe that just lives once on a planet created once means you have overcome odds which cannot be measured. That to say you are special is the greatest of understatements. I am sorry my friend, but no one is that lucky, and especially you are not that special. The great odds against you ever coming into existence also answer lifes greatest questions. You were not lucky, you were inevitable. Your existence was not a fluke, it was guaranteed. The universe is not born once, it knows not the definition of once. It is the utter strangeness of infinity which rules...... infinity, something we have not the slightest understanding of. This thing all arround us, time, the universe goes on forever in an endless cycle and you prove it. The cycle dictates that your consciousness did not just come into existence recently, but has always existed. There is no other explaination, nothing to explain the incredible odds that explain you happening. You are born fully naked and rich with amnesia. You die the same. But the matter and energy and forces which made your consciousness do not die. And from the greatest of odds, the smallest of chances mixed with endless time, they inevitably and exactly return. And they do so infinitely. So when it comes time to die, relax, everything will be all right in the end. For when you look at and admire the healthy and the young, you are seeing just parts of a cycle, an endless cycle in which you are an integral part of. And your death is far from the end
reverebison Thinker Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 145	Last edited by reverebison; 8th June 2012 at 05:32 PM.

8th June 2012, 04:54 PM	#2
Foster Zygote Dental Floss Tycoon Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge Posts: 14,389	Originally Posted by reverebison what are the odds: 1. that you were born a highly evolved human being after 4.5 billion years of life on this earth. Billions of consciousness born and die every day on this earth and after 4 billion years of that, you were born. 2. You are here on this planet called Earth, that of all the dead planets in our universe, you happened by chance to come to be born on the only life planet arround for light years, maybe forever. 3. that you were born at all in a universe created once by a big bang, a universe some experts say eventually dies and dies forever. What are the odds that you were so lucky? I am sorry my friend, but no one is that lucky. The great odds against you ever coming into existence also answer lifes greatest questions. You were not lucky, you were inevitable. Your existence was a guarantee. The universe is not finite, it is infinite, only this can explain the ridiculous odds known as you. This thing all arround us, time, the universe goes on forever in an endless cycle and you prove it. The cycle dictates that your consciousness did not just come into existence, but has always existed. You are born from the tiniest of odds, which in an infinite universe are guaranteed to happen. You die and the matter and energy and forces which made your consciousness remain. And from the greatest of odds, the smallest of chances they return. And they do so infinitely. So when it is time to die, relax, everything will be all right in the end. For when you look at infants and you look at children, you are seeing parts of the cycle, and endless cycle in which you are an integral part of. And your death is the farthest thing from the end. Might I suggest that you study probability and statistics.
	__________________ It looks just like a Telefunken U47... You'll love it.

8th June 2012, 05:01 PM	#3
Skeptic Ginger formerly skeptigirl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shifting through paradigms Posts: 40,536	Fell free to believe in your god explanation, revere, I'll stick with the more successful science, thank you.
	__________________ (*Tired of continuing to hear the "Democrat Party" repeatedly I've decided to adopt the name, ~~Pubbie Party, Repubs~~ "Republics" and Republic Party in response.)

8th June 2012, 05:02 PM	#5
Tinyal Thinker Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: California, the 8th largest country in the world. Posts: 186	What are the odds, you say? That's a very, *very* easy question to answer. The odds are 1-to-1, as we are most definitely here. Just because you don't 'feel' or 'believe' something is possible, or even likely, has no relation to reality. Next question?
	__________________ "*Evidence can be an impediment to conscious intelligent thinking with an open mind.*" - Yrreg

8th June 2012, 05:12 PM	#6
Kid Eager Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Australia Posts: 3,483	Originally Posted by reverebison what are the odds: 1. that you were born a highly evolved human being after 4.5 billion years of life on this earth. Billions of consciousness born and die every day on this earth and after 4 billion years of that, you were born. 2. You are here on this planet called Earth, that of all the dead planets in our universe, you happened by chance to come to be born on the only life planet arround for light years, maybe forever. 3. that you were born at all in a universe created once by a big bang, a universe some experts say eventually dies and dies forever. What are the odds that you were so lucky? I am sorry my friend, but no one is that lucky. The great odds against you ever coming into existence also answer lifes greatest questions. You were not lucky, you were inevitable. Your existence was not a fluke, it was guaranteed. The universe is not born once, it knows not the definition of once. It is the utter strangeness of infinity which rules...... infinity, something we have not the slightest understanding of. This thing all arround us, time, the universe goes on forever in an endless cycle and you prove it. The cycle dictates that your consciousness did not just come into existence, but has always existed. You are born from the tiniest of odds, which in an infinite universe are guaranteed to happen. You die, but the matter and energy and forces which made your consciousness do not. And from the greatest of odds, the smallest of chances they inevitably and exactly return. And they do so infinitely. So when comes time to die, relax, everything will be all right in the end. For when you look at and admire the healthy and the young, you seeing just parts of a cycle, an endless cycle in which you are an integral part of. And your death is the farthest thing from the end. So eat all the steak you want - it doesn't matter.
	__________________ What do Narwhals, Magnets and Apollo 13 have in common? Think about it....

8th June 2012, 05:02 PM	#4
Nay_Sayer Muse Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 741	The problem with these "look at he odds!" arguments is that they are all after the fact. Lets say I roll 10 dice and get this result: 3,9,6,6,1,2,1,7,3,5 what are the odds that I would roll that exact combination? Well it was mearly 1:1 it isn't until after we see the results that we can come up with the statistics to say how improbable it is to happen again. To answer your question, the odds of all that happening for me? 1:1 The odds of it happening exactly the same way much higher.

8th June 2012, 05:32 PM	#7
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Downunder Posts: 4,259	Just posting to say that the odds are 1 in 1. Others have beaten me to it, but I think this is answer is significant enough that it bears repeating.
	__________________ "That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim

8th June 2012, 06:58 PM	#8
kerikiwi Philosopher Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Bay of Islands NZ Posts: 5,844	Originally Posted by reverebison 1. .... Billions of consciousness born and die every day on this earth and after 4 billion years of that, you were born. 2. You are here on this planet called Earth, that of all the dead planets in our universe, you happened by chance to come to be born on the only life planet arround for light years, maybe forever. 1. What? 2. What are the odds that you would be born on a dead planet?

8th June 2012, 08:07 PM	#9
Audible Click The gap in the plot Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: BFE Posts: 3,546	Very poetic and reads well but your assumptions are astonishing.
	__________________ "Thank you, darling heart. Love you." Baba Australasian Skeptics Forum

8th June 2012, 11:00 PM	#10
psionl0 Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°58'S 115°57'E Posts: 4,766	Originally Posted by reverebison So when it comes time to die, relax, everything will be all right in the end. Obviously not something you got from the bible.

8th June 2012, 11:12 PM	#11
UncaStuart Student Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: California Posts: 35	Originally Posted by reverebison This thing all arround us, time, the universe goes on forever in an endless cycle and you prove it. So I guess there is no end to be all right in.

8th June 2012, 11:17 PM	#12
SezMe post-pre-born Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Santa Barbara, CA Posts: 16,369	Originally Posted by reverebison ... especially you are not that special. How dare you ............! Hrruph! My dog knows better than that.

9th June 2012, 12:01 AM	#13
Quinn Breathtakingly blasphemous. Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 1,882	I vaguely recall reading a book that had a section basically explaining that, statistically speaking, odds are very good that you, the reader, are dead right now. And I want to say it was by either Dawkins, Sagan or Douglas Adams. Can anyone help me fill in the details? PS -- I saw a license plate today that said KAG-295. What are the odds?!?
	__________________ It's not a matter of living life without mystery or wonder. It's a matter of living life without the approval of people who ignorantly assume that by rejecting the irrational, I experience no mystery or wonder. And frankly, I do just fine without that.

9th June 2012, 12:25 AM	#14
SezMe post-pre-born Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Santa Barbara, CA Posts: 16,369	Can't help with the refs but the calculation is easy: Age of the universe=1410^9 (rounded for simplicity) Age of typical person= 70 Probability that you're here now=.510^(-8) License plate: Assuming 3 letters followed by 3 numbers= .6*10^(-7)

9th June 2012, 12:41 AM	#15
3point14 Pi Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: London ish Posts: 3,596	Originally Posted by Tinyal The odds are 1-to-1, as we are most definitely here. I'm not!
	__________________ Cull the delusional.

9th June 2012, 12:43 AM	#16
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Downunder Posts: 4,259	Originally Posted by Quinn I vaguely recall reading a book that had a section basically explaining that, statistically speaking, odds are very good that you, the reader, are dead right now. And I want to say it was by either Dawkins, Sagan or Douglas Adams. Can anyone help me fill in the details? I can't help you with the source, but it's clearly a load of bollox. Dead people can't read, so that there's zero chance that anyone reading anything is dead right now.
	__________________ "That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim

9th June 2012, 01:30 AM	#17
Twiler Master Poster Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,494	Originally Posted by Brian-M I can't help you with the source, but it's clearly a load of bollox. Dead people can't read, so that there's zero chance that anyone reading anything is dead right now. I'd imagine that would be the point. Reductio ad absurdum. An absurd conclusion indicates a flawed premise or flawed reasoning.
Twiler Master Poster Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,494

9th June 2012, 02:19 AM	#18
ingoa Surfing on the relativistic brain wave Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Old Europe Posts: 492	100% Why? Why not! I do not understand the question of the OP.
	__________________ Suum cuique I have no prejudices. I hate everbody!

9th June 2012, 02:22 AM	#19
bjornart Master Poster Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 2,395	Population of the universe Quote: None. Although you might see people from time to time, they are most likely products of your imagination. Simple mathematics tells us that the population of the Universe must be zero. Why? Well given that the volume of the universe is infinite there must be an infinite number of worlds. But not all of them are populated; therefore only a finite number are. Any finite number divided by infinity is as close to zero as makes no odds, therefore we can round the average population of the Universe to zero, and so the total population must be zero. Douglas Adams A far better writer of speculative fiction than the OP. No better at basic math/statistics though, but at least he made it funny.
bjornart Master Poster Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 2,395	__________________ Well, I DON'T CARE WHAT YOU LIKE TO BELIEVE, GODDAMMIT! I DEAL IN THE FACTS! -Cecil Adams Last edited by bjornart; 9th June 2012 at 02:23 AM.

9th June 2012, 02:53 AM	#20
Quinn Breathtakingly blasphemous. Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 1,882	To answer my own question from a few posts up: it was Dawkins' Unweaving the Rainbow: Quote: [T]he present moves from the past to the future, like a tiny spotlight, inching its way along a gigantic ruler of time. Everything behind the spotlight is in darkness, the darkness of the dead past. Everything ahead of the spotlight is in the darkness of the unknown future. The odds of your century being the one in the spotlight are the same as the odds that a penny, tossed down at random, will land on a particular ant crawling somewhere along the road from New York to San Francisco. In other words, it is overwhelmingly probable that you are dead. In spite of these odds, you will notice that you are, as a matter of fact, alive. People whom the spotlight has already passed over, and people whom the spotlight has not reached, are in no position to read a book.
	__________________ It's not a matter of living life without mystery or wonder. It's a matter of living life without the approval of people who ignorantly assume that by rejecting the irrational, I experience no mystery or wonder. And frankly, I do just fine without that.

9th June 2012, 03:24 AM	#21
Lord Emsworth Je ne suis pas une de vos élèves Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Through the Cables and the Underground ... Posts: 2,827	Originally Posted by reverebison The cycle dictates that your consciousness did not just come into existence recently, but has always existed. There is no other explaination, nothing to explain the incredible odds that explain you happening. You are born fully naked and rich with amnesia. You die the same. But the matter and energy and forces which made your consciousness do not die. And from the greatest of odds, the smallest of chances mixed with endless time, they inevitably and exactly return. And they do so infinitely. That is not an explanation. Not even close.

9th June 2012, 03:44 AM	#22
Agatha Winking at the Moon Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: UK Posts: 4,215	The probability is 1 in 1. We are here, we are alive now, so what you are doing is known as the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, combined with an Argument from Incredulity. Your argument, such as it is, fails.
	__________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint - it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly... timey wimey... stuff.

9th June 2012, 01:29 PM	#23
baron Graduate Poster Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Hill Posts: 1,910	Originally Posted by reverebison what are the odds: 1. that you were born a highly evolved human being after 4.5 billion years of life on this earth. Billions of consciousness born and die every day on this earth and after 4 billion years of that, you were born. 2. You are here on this planet called Earth, that of all the dead planets in our universe, you happened by chance to come to be born on the only life planet arround for light years, maybe forever. 3. that you were born at all in a universe created once by a big bang, a universe some experts say eventually dies and dies forever. 1. The odds are 1:1, clearly. 2. It's impossible to be born on a dead planet so that doesn't make me in any way lucky. However, there might be billions of civilisations in our universe far more amenable to well-being than humanity, so perhaps I'm actually unlucky in that respect. 3. I'm not lucky to have been born at all because if I hadn't have been born there would be no 'me' to be unlucky (assuming your own definitions). If you disagree then perhaps you should address your question to Mr H.G. Fishweasel, who to the best of my knowledge has never been born and therefore by your definition is unlucky.
	__________________

9th June 2012, 03:12 PM	#24
Halfcentaur Philosopher Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 5,944	Quote: The cycle dictates that your consciousness did not just come into existence recently, but has always existed. There is no other explaination, nothing to explain the incredible odds that explain you happening. You are born fully naked and rich with amnesia. You die the same. But the matter and energy and forces which made your consciousness do not die. And from the greatest of odds, the smallest of chances mixed with endless time, they inevitably and exactly return. And they do so infinitely. Just because the stuff you are made of has existed for a long time does not mean your consciousness did too. How do you make this leap? This is no different than claiming Windows7 or World of Warcraft always existed and always will exist.
Halfcentaur Philosopher Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 5,944

10th June 2012, 12:11 AM	#25
Marduk Banned Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Newbury, Berkshire Posts: 10,242	Originally Posted by Halfcentaur This is no different than claiming Windows7 or World of Warcraft always existed and always will exist. of course that is true for Starcraft

10th June 2012, 02:19 AM	#26
Halfcentaur Philosopher Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 5,944	Originally Posted by Marduk of course that is true for Starcraft I actually think Blizzard's games will live on for eons, but not because the basic atoms and particles their data is stored upon and emerges from as a running process once existed a long time ago.
Halfcentaur Philosopher Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 5,944

10th June 2012, 07:11 AM	#27
Nowhere Man Scholar Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 108	"You are a fluke of the universe; you have no right to be here, and whether you can hear it or not, the universe is laughing behind your back." Fred
Nowhere Man Scholar Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 108

11th June 2012, 04:16 PM	#28
reverebison Thinker Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 145	Originally Posted by UncaStuart So I guess there is no end to be all right in. Yes, that is it. And you, the only intellectual of the bunch were the one who got it right. Here is something else I will irritate you pseudo intellectuals JREF forum lifers with: Your consciousness is existence. The universe cannot exist without consciousness. The universe cannot exist without your consciousness. Its the ultimate theory of relativity. The universe must be as old as your consciousness, which it is, infinitely old. The universe produces consciousness, and for a reason. If any of you believe that you happen once, I will accuse you of not being as smart as you think you are. You either get it or you don't, and if you don't then your too stupid to know how stupid you are. You then go 5th grader and try to make hurtful comments, and even sillier, witty comments, trying to outwit the next nitwit. Meanwhile the circus gets funnier and funnier. Oh, posting on this forum is so worthwhile.
reverebison Thinker Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 145	Last edited by reverebison; 11th June 2012 at 04:38 PM.

11th June 2012, 04:48 PM	#29
SezMe post-pre-born Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Santa Barbara, CA Posts: 16,369	Originally Posted by reverebison If any of you believe that you happen once, I will accuse you of not being as smart as you think you are. You either get it or you don't, and if you don't then your too stupid to know how stupid you are. You then go 5th grader and try to make hurtful comments, and even sillier, witty comments, trying to outwit the next nitwit. Meanwhile the circus gets funnier and funnier. If any of you believe that you happen more than once, I will accuse you of not being as smart as you think you are. You either get it or you don't, and if you don't then your too stupid to know how stupid you are. You then go 5th grader and try to make hurtful comments, and even sillier, witty comments, trying to outwit the next nitwit. Meanwhile the circus gets funnier and funnier. See how easy it is to play that stupid game.

11th June 2012, 05:13 PM	#30
Roger Ramjets Muse Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 708	Originally Posted by reverebison So when it comes time to die, relax, everything will be all right in the end. So you don't mind if I kill you now?
Roger Ramjets Muse Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 708	__________________ We don't want good, sound arguments. We want arguments that sound good.

11th June 2012, 08:30 PM	#31
Bill Thompson 75 Graduate Poster Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 1,420	Originally Posted by Audible Click Very poetic... The Moody Blues agree that it's poetic, but not about Everything: "Work away today, work away tomorrow. Never comes the day for my love and me. I feel her gently sighing as the evening slips away. If only you knew what's inside of me now You wouldn't want to know me somehow, But you will love me tonight, We alone will be alright, in the end."

11th June 2012, 08:43 PM	#32
keale Muse Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 813	I close my eyes Only for a moment, then the momen't gone All my dreams Pass before my eyes, a curiosity Dust in the wind All they are is dust in the wind Same old song Just a drop of water in an endless sea All we do Crumbles to the ground, though we refuse to see Dust in the wind All we are is dust in the wind, ohh Now, don't hang on Nothing lasts forever but the earth and sky It slips away And all your money won't another minute buy
keale Muse Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 813

11th June 2012, 10:02 PM	#33
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Downunder Posts: 4,259	Originally Posted by reverebison Your consciousness is your subjective existence. ~~The~~ Your subjective universe cannot exist without consciousness. ~~The~~ Your subjective universe cannot exist without your consciousness. ~~Its the ultimate theory of relativity.~~ ~~The~~ Your subjective universe must be as old as your consciousness, which it is~~, infinitely old~~. The universe produces consciousness~~, and for a reason~~. Fixed that paragraph for you. The way you had it, it was complete bollocks. The rest of the post needs fixing too.
	__________________ "That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim

12th June 2012, 02:45 PM	#34
Elypsis44 Illuminator Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 3,407	Originally Posted by reverebison what are the odds: 1. that you were born a highly evolved human being after 4.5 billion years of life on this earth. Billions of consciousness born and die every day on this earth and after 4 billion years of that, you were born. 2. You are here on this planet called Earth, that of all the dead planets in our universe, you happened by chance to come to be born on the only life planet arround for light years, maybe forever. 3. that you were born at all in a universe created once by a big bang, a universe some experts say eventually dies and dies forever. What are the odds that you were so lucky? To be born once in a universe that just lives once on a planet created once means you have overcome odds which cannot be measured. That to say you are special is the greatest of understatements. I am sorry my friend, but no one is that lucky, and especially you are not that special. The great odds against you ever coming into existence also answer lifes greatest questions. You were not lucky, you were inevitable. Your existence was not a fluke, it was guaranteed. The universe is not born once, it knows not the definition of once. It is the utter strangeness of infinity which rules...... infinity, something we have not the slightest understanding of. This thing all arround us, time, the universe goes on forever in an endless cycle and you prove it. The cycle dictates that your consciousness did not just come into existence recently, but has always existed. There is no other explaination, nothing to explain the incredible odds that explain you happening. You are born fully naked and rich with amnesia. You die the same. But the matter and energy and forces which made your consciousness do not die. And from the greatest of odds, the smallest of chances mixed with endless time, they inevitably and exactly return. And they do so infinitely. So when it comes time to die, relax, everything will be all right in the end. For when you look at and admire the healthy and the young, you are seeing just parts of a cycle, an endless cycle in which you are an integral part of. And your death is far from the end For that, you get this. Originally Posted by reverebison Here is something else I will irritate you pseudo intellectuals JREF forum lifers with: Where did I put that Troll-B-Gone™ spray?
Elypsis44 Illuminator Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 3,407

12th June 2012, 03:00 PM	#35
DC dedicated aphilatelist Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Switzerland Posts: 21,646	how are the odds to be born here of all those death planets and then win the lottery. amazin and still happens every week.
	__________________ AGW is a fact, including the A, face it