Higher crime - a price worth paying

[iain]

All the figures suggest that crime has risen substantially over the last 80 years in the UK. It is difficult to judge how much, since figures are reported differently and it's not clear that as much as 50% of all crimes were reported in the past, as they are today. But it does seem clear that crime has risen.

However, British society in the 1950s was very different to how it is now. For example, I read recently an account of life in a 1950s street where the wives did different jobs on each day. For example, Wednesdays was the day to wash the windows and if one of the wives wasn't out washing her windows on the Wednesday, the others would go round to see what was wrong. 1950s & 1960s Britain was a place where "No Blacks, no Irish" ouside guest houses was a both common and legal sight; where one of our greatest scientists Alan Turing, was driven to suicide because he was homosexual; where babies of single mothers were frequently taken away forcibly to be adopted.

Maybe that sort of society is one that some people want to return to; but most of the population seem to have chosen a society where there is more individual freedom and more diversity; where people can do what they want to a far greater extent.

It seems to me that the increase in crime is, as the right wing have always claimed, probably linked to this change in society to some extent. However, I differ from them in that I think it is a price worth paying. If I had the choice of living in modern society or living in 1950s Britain I would choose the higher (but not too high) crime of the modern world every time.

[TAILGUNNER]

Are you serious?

so those dreaded 50's with their easy ways and open house life styles with people not only knowing their neighbours but actually being part of community and embracing it, i dont think it was quite wednesday was wash day for everybody but ok i get your point

however you'd much rather live in headonistic times where doors are locked people keep themselves to themselves and communities are destroyed, all because of crime and or the fear of crime

Interesting to note you say 'I would choose the higher (but not too high) crime of the modern world every time.'

how exactly would you regulate it so it didnt reach beyond what you personally would accept, and how about the possibility that crime spirals out of control as it is doing today to reach new dramatic unacceptable levels

Society has lost its way and has in many aspects broken down, crime is increasing to a level that even us desensitised people find intolerable and at the pace its going how can you truly say its a time thats preferable ? its absolute chaos

[Mr Manifesto]

Quote:

Originally posted by TAILGUNNER
Are you serious?

so those dreaded 50's with their easy ways and open house life styles with people not only knowing their neighbours but actually being part of community and embracing it, i dont think it was quite wednesday was wash day for everybody but ok i get your point

First up, is this what the 50's were like? And if so, who for? Certainly not Negros.

Quote:

however you'd much rather live in headonistic times where doors are locked people keep themselves to themselves and communities are destroyed, all because of crime and or the fear of crime

"Fear of crime" seems to be the operative phrase. It seems that murder, for example, is trending downwards in the US:

Quote:

Homicide rates recently declined to levels last seen in
the late 1960's. The Nation's homicide rate was 4.6
per 100,000 population in 1950. It doubled from the
mid-1960's to the late 1970's. In 1980 it peaked at
10.2 and fell to 7.9 in 1985. It rose again in the late
1980's and early 1990's to another peak of 9.8 in
1991. After 1991 the homicide rate declined sharply.
In recent years the decline has slowed. The Nation's
murder rate was 5.5 in 2000 compared to 5.7 in 1999.

Quote:

Interesting to note you say 'I would choose the higher (but not too high) crime of the modern world every time.'

how exactly would you regulate it so it didnt reach beyond what you personally would accept, and how about the possibility that crime spirals out of control as it is doing today to reach new dramatic unacceptable levels

Society has lost its way and has in many aspects broken down, crime is increasing to a level that even us desensitised people find intolerable and at the pace its going how can you truly say its a time thats preferable ? its absolute chaos [/b]

Evidence, evidence, evidence, please. This assertion is getting tiresome.

[Shaun from Scotland]

Paging Dicky boy........

This thread really needs some unsubstantiated or mis-represented gun story about how we would be better off if we just shot each other. Or indeed, how we are all defenceless because guns are banned (even though they are not)

Which you then run away from......

[TAILGUNNER]

Quote:

Originally posted by Mr Manifesto


First up, is this what the 50's were like? And if so, who for? Certainly not Negros.



"Fear of crime" seems to be the operative phrase. It seems that murder, for example, is trending downwards in the US:





Evidence, evidence, evidence, please. This assertion is getting tiresome. [/b]

great you are asking for evidence

and yet this topic is about the rising rate of crime in the uk and you go on to cite the states

shall i follow that lead and post a link to alaska for negro problems in the 1950's as some form of evidence

'This assertion is getting tiresome'

laughable given your post

[iain]

Quote:

Originally posted by TAILGUNNER
Are you serious?

Yes

Quote:

however you'd much rather live in headonistic times where doors are locked people keep themselves to themselves and communities are destroyed, all because of crime and or the fear of crime

Who are these people? Yes, there probably are a small number of people in a small number of areas who live like this with good reason. There are probably more who's fear of crime greatly outweighs the reality of the risks they face (e.g. we fear child abduction more now, but the number of children abducted hasn't changed in 30 years).

For example, I work in Wythenshawe, Manchester - Europe's largest council estate. At work people often talk as if Wythenshawe was dangerous - some people don't like going into the centre or leaving their cars out. Looking at the reality though is a different story - no one from work has actually been a victim of crime there; there's a story that a car was stolen about two years ago but that's it. I've cycled through Wythenshawe daily for the last year and never had a problem.

As for people keeping themselves to themselves - speak for yourself. I freely admit that I like my privacy and my wife and I aren't socialites, but we get on well with our neighbours and have social lives we are perfectly happy with. The same is true of most other people in my area (which happens to be fairly multi-cultural and multi-racial). There are four pubs in the village and the usual selection of sporting, cultural and children's clubs and societies. Where is your evidence of this collapse in society?

Quote:

Interesting to note you say 'I would choose the higher (but not too high) crime of the modern world every time.'

how exactly would you regulate it so it didnt reach beyond what you personally would accept, and how about the possibility that crime spirals out of control as it is doing today to reach new dramatic unacceptable levels

Crime is not spiralling out of control. In the UK crime has fallen every year since 1995 and is now at its lowest level since 1981. This is confirmed by every survey that is done as well as the official figures. Some violent crimes have risen in recent years but hardly "out of control". You really shouldn't believe everything you read in the papers, you know.

Quote:

Society has lost its way and has in many aspects broken down, crime is increasing to a level that even us desensitised people find intolerable and at the pace its going how can you truly say its a time thats preferable ? its absolute chaos

As I say, I work in Wythenshawe and live nearbye. I've lived in a mixture of richer and poorer neighbourhoods in different parts of the country over the last decade and never had a particular problem with crime. When I have spoken to people about crime, in nearly every case any feeling of crime being out of control is based on vague feelings fuelled by the media or rumours and anecdotes; rarely on reality.

[Mr Manifesto]

Quote:

Originally posted by TAILGUNNER


great you are asking for evidence

and yet this topic is about the rising rate of crime in the uk and you go on to cite the states

shall i follow that lead and post a link to alaska for negro problems in the 1950's as some form of evidence

'This assertion is getting tiresome'

laughable given your post

Don't let that stop you from avoiding giving evidence to support your case. Your assertions are still assertions.

[TAILGUNNER]

Quote:

Originally posted by Mr Manifesto


Don't let that stop you from avoiding giving evidence to support your case. Your assertions are still assertions.

and your citing of US figures in a topic about the UK is still laughable

i could post at least 20 links to various stories for the uk that state crime is up, then 20 more than say its stable with increases in certain types of crime and decreases in others due to police initiatives then possibly four government links that show their adjusted figures that crime has decreased 3 % but then again the words government and adjusted speak for themselves

its dependant soley on who's interest its in as to links i could post, as such what point is there is starting a link war as a victim of crime myself and living where i live i can make the assertion that crime is out of control given i see it every day

______________________________________________

IAIN

As i dont live or actually know your area how can i comment on it, i live 30 miles from london and could post exactly the opposite of what you have just said it proves nothing

'Crime is not spiralling out of control. In the UK crime has fallen every year since 1995 and is now at its lowest level since 1981. This is confirmed by every survey that is done as well as the official figures. Some violent crimes have risen in recent years but hardly "out of control". You really shouldn't believe everything you read in the papers, you know.

LOL and lol again the most recent crime figures for 2002/2003 uk was released and interestingly enough showed two figures

first was the governments adjusted figure that crime was down 3%

then the actually official recorded figure that crime was up 7%

so anybody wish to find the non politicised figures for crime for the uk and btw IAIN you maybe should take your own advice and not believe everything you read in the papers

Also anybody wish to begin to speculate on the number of unreported crimes?given in many lesser crimes people dont bother to report these days as the police are too busy dealing with the increase in major crimes

"As I say, I work in Wythenshawe and live nearbye. I've lived in a mixture of richer and poorer neighbourhoods in different parts of the country over the last decade and never had a particular problem with crime. When I have spoken to people about crime, in nearly every case any feeling of crime being out of control is based on vague feelings fuelled by the media or rumours and anecdotes; rarely on reality.

yep and i live near london and luton and crime is on the up and up with my own car and property being vandalised and quite a few people i know being victims of crime in one form or another whats your point we have a mixture of rich and poor areas too it means nothing

[iain]

Quote:

Originally posted by TAILGUNNER
IAIN

As i dont live or actually know your area how can i comment on it, i live 30 miles from london and could post exactly the opposite of what you have just said it proves nothing

You're right that my anecdotes don't prove anything. Maybe you should move up to Manchester.

Quote:

LOL and lol again the most recent crime figures for 2002/2003 uk was released and interestingly enough showed two figures

first was the governments adjusted figure that crime was down 3%

then the actually official recorded figure that crime was up 7%

so anybody wish to find the non politicised figures for crime for the uk and btw IAIN you maybe should take your own advice and not believe everything you read in the papers[/b]

Luckily I don't believe what I read in the papers. I did a fair bit of research last year on crime trends over the last few years. When talking about adjusted figures you need to understand why they were adjusted - it may be that the adjusted figure is a better guide to reality than the raw figures if, for example, the raw figures have been skewed by a change in the way crimes are reported (as is in fact the case).

Quote:

Also anybody wish to begin to speculate on the number of unreported crimes?given in many lesser crimes people dont bother to report these days as the police are too busy dealing with the increase in major crimes

No need to speculate. The British Crime Survey gives us a very good guide as to what proportion of crimes are unreported. It has shown consistently that around 50% of crimes are reported, and in recent years the BCS has also shown a drop in crime.

[TAILGUNNER]

Quote:

Originally posted by iain
You're right that my anecdotes don't prove anything. Maybe you should move up to Manchester.

Luckily I don't believe what I read in the papers. I did a fair bit of research last year on crime trends over the last few years. When talking about adjusted figures you need to understand why they were adjusted - it may be that the adjusted figure is a better guide to reality than the raw figures if, for example, the raw figures have been skewed by a change in the way crimes are reported (as is in fact the case).

No need to speculate. The British Crime Survey gives us a very good guide as to what proportion of crimes are unreported. It has shown consistently that around 50% of crimes are reported, and in recent years the BCS has also shown a drop in crime.

Originally posted by iain:You're right that my anecdotes don't prove anything. Maybe you should move up to Manchester.

by your description of it i would love to

quote:Luckily I don't believe what I read in the papers. I did a fair bit of research last year on crime trends over the last few years. When talking about adjusted figures you need to understand why they were adjusted - it may be that the adjusted figure is a better guide to reality than the raw figures if, for example, the raw figures have been skewed by a change in the way crimes are reported (as is in fact the case).

Yep i'll accept that as a possibility however i also understand the political adjustment and why they do it very well wouldnt do for any government to have crime rising under their leadership

quote:No need to speculate. The British Crime Survey gives us a very good guide as to what proportion of crimes are unreported. It has shown consistently that around 50% of crimes are reported, and in recent years the BCS has also shown a drop in crime. [/b][/quote]

after just looking at the BCS figures it shows a drop in certain crime and it cites police initiatives as a reason however there are increases in the worst types of crime

[iain]

Quote:

Originally posted by TAILGUNNER
Yep i'll accept that as a possibility however i also understand the political adjustment and why they do it very well wouldnt do for any government to have crime rising under their leadership

I agree - some adjustments are certainly political. In this case, though, there was a genuine change in the way figures were collected which basically meant that the police recorded things as crimes in 2002/03 which previously had not been included in the figures. I'm no fan of Labour but on this one I think the adjustment is legitimate.

Quote:

after just looking at the BCS figures it shows a drop in certain crime and it cites police initiatives as a reason however there are increases in the worst types of crime

You're right. You need to look at the trend over several years, as odd events can skew one year's figures (e.g. all the Harold Shipman murders were put in on one day, making murders for that year look a lot higher than they really were). However, overall I think your analysis is about right - crime generally is falling but some crimes, especially violent crimes, are rising (though the overall numbers of these are still relatively low - the odds of you being a victim of violent crime is not high).

Now we have looked at the figures, do you still stand by your earlier analysis that

Society has lost its way and has in many aspects broken down, crime is increasing to a level that even us desensitised people find intolerable ... its absolute chaos and, if so, can you back it up with evidence or explain further what you mean?

[American]

I have a better idea. Let's have a 50s society, and put criminals in prison.


The violent criminals, we should kill before they hurt another person.


I'll be happy, but you'll likely be in one of the two groups I just described. Where ever you are, I shall not miss you.

[Tmy]

What crimes are we talking about?? Cable theft?? Cause there was no cable to steal in the 50's.

And in the 50s it wasnt very common for battered wives to call the cops on their abusive husbands. Not that the cops would do much.'

Do you think theres more wife beating now than in the 50s?

[iain]

Quote:

Originally posted by Tmy
Do you think theres more wife beating now than in the 50s?

Until the 1970s there was no such thing as rape within marriage in the UK - a man had his conjugal rights and that was that.

[The Don]

As my old Grandad used to say "the reason we left us back doors unlocked is that we 'ad bu99er all to nick"

[Shane Costello]

I'm not so sure that the "no blacks, no Irish" thing was as common as some might presume. About 30,000 Irish people a year entered the UK in the 1950's, so they must have boarded somewhere.

Not exactly on topic but I remember the UK TV channels ran a series of documentaries a couple of years ago on the 50th anniversary of the NHS. Apparently the standard wedding present for working class women pre-NHS was a trip to the dentist, where all their teeth were extracted and they were presented with a set of dentures! Good old days indeed!

I wonder did Barbara Cartland or Catherine Cookson ever write that into a storyline?

[iain]

Quote:

Originally posted by Shane Costello
Not exactly on topic but I remember the UK TV channels ran a series of documentaries a couple of years ago on the 50th anniversary of the NHS. Apparently the standard wedding present for working class women pre-NHS was a trip to the dentist, where all their teeth were extracted and they were presented with a set of dentures! Good old days indeed!

Not just working class women. I believe it was also a perk of many white collar jobs - like health insurance, but your emplyer got your wife a visit to the dentist.

I listened to something on the radio where they were looking at photos of someone at different ages and they could spot from the shape of the mouth and face when the teeth must have been removed - apparantly it changed the shape of the smile.

It also said that fans were such a great innovation because it meant that women could keep the worst of their bad breath away from other people - and in the 18th and 19th centuries wealthier people would tend to eat richer diets and so have worse teeth and breath.

[PygmyPlaidGiraffe]

Quote:

Originally posted by TAILGUNNER


Society has lost its way and has in many aspects broken down, crime is increasing to a level that even us desensitised people find intolerable and at the pace its going how can you truly say its a time thats preferable ? its absolute chaos

Yeah. Society has been breaking down since the Ice Age.

[peptoabysmal]

Quote:

Originally posted by The Don
As my old Grandad used to say "the reason we left us back doors unlocked is that we 'ad bu99er all to nick"

I think the American version of that is "Premises protected by extreme poverty".

[Vorticity]

Quote:

Originally posted by iain
...where one of our greatest scientists Alan Turing, was driven to suicide because he was homosexual...

I have a bit of a bee in my bonnet about Turing, and I always try to say something when his name comes up.

The fate Turing received at the hands of his own government and people, which he served ably and brilliantly, has always disturbed me deeply.

From http://www.lambda.net/~maximum/turing.html :

Quote:

...
In 1952, Turing's home was burglarized by a friend of a man with whom he was having an affair. Refusing to be intimidated, he reported the crime. During the investigation, he did not hide his homosexuality from the police. He was labeled a pervert and was charged with gross indecency. He agreed to submit to hormone treatments rather than go to prison. He was injected with the female hormone estrogen. It was believed that estrogen injections were useful in curbing sexual urges.

The stress and humiliation of his treatment at the hands of the government that he served loyally throughout his life led to his mental deterioration. Alan Mathison Turing committed suicide by eating an apple laced with cyanide in 1954. He was 41 years old.
...

I should add that at the point of his arrest, due to his wartime service, Turing still had some powerful friends in government to whom he could have turned for aid. However, he decided this would have been unfair to all the others who had been unjustly charged under the "perversion" laws, and chose to go to trial alone, convinced that there was nothing immoral or wrong about his actions. This selfless choice yielded him only shame, humiliation, and death.

Horrible.

[Shane Costello]

Quote:

Originally posted by iain:
It also said that fans were such a great innovation because it meant that women could keep the worst of their bad breath away from other people - and in the 18th and 19th centuries wealthier people would tend to eat richer diets and so have worse teeth and breath.

I've read that poor dental health was a status symbol in the 16th and 17th century, since sugar was expensive and rotten teeth indicated you could afford to splash out on the white stuff. Terry Jones' recent documentary series on the middle ages looked at peasant's skulls. Their dentitition was suprisingly good.

Back on topic. IIRC murder rates in Victorain times were higher than they are now, substantially so in Ireland's case. I'll try and dig up some data.

[PygmyPlaidGiraffe]

Quote:

Originally posted by peptoabysmal


I think the American version of that is "Premises protected by extreme poverty".

The night of June 1, I watched a documentary on Ike on A&E. It mentioned that in circa 1890s America (around the time when Ike was born) something like 85% or more of people were living a meager life style, what we may term by today's standards as living a life of perpetual poverty. I'm not sure what their source was for that; but if its true, then a society where the majority of a nations pop's standard of living is high, is a rather recent phenomena.

Perhaps it is only correlation though to say that, as a society on average becomes more affluent, property crime and theft increases. It would be difficult to prove a connection if crimes in the late 19th c and early 20th c were under-reported. It could make for an interesting thesis.

[UserGoogol]

Turing rocked. Although he was more of a mathematician than a scientist.

Turing Machines, Turing Tests, and cracking Nazi codes. Good stuff.

[Chanileslie]

My questions are: Is there really a correlation to more personal freedoms and higher crime? Or could a higher crime rate be the cause of an increase in populations size, which causes people to live more closely together, which in turn can cause increased friction? Or to increased inflation and decreased earning power where it is very difficult to support oneself and one's family on only one income? Or to more laws making more things illegal? Where has crime increased? In what areas?

Yes, if crime is linked to more personal freedoms then, yes, it is an exchange I am willing to make, but I am not sure that is a true correlation. Of course, I also don't know if it is false as well.

[iain]

Quote:

Originally posted by Chanileslie
My questions are: Is there really a correlation to more personal freedoms and higher crime? Or could a higher crime rate be the cause of an increase in populations size, which causes people to live more closely together, which in turn can cause increased friction? Or to increased inflation and decreased earning power where it is very difficult to support oneself and one's family on only one income? Or to more laws making more things illegal? Where has crime increased? In what areas?

That's the sort of question I like, as it should be reasonably easy to answer - a correlation between population density and crime levels would support the hypothesis, no correlation would not. I'll do some digging if I have the time.

[Jon_in_london]

Quote:

Originally posted by iain
It seems to me that the increase in crime is, as the right wing have always claimed, probably linked to this change in society to some extent. However, I differ from them in that I think it is a price worth paying. If I had the choice of living in modern society or living in 1950s Britain I would choose the higher (but not too high) crime of the modern world every time.

Are you suggesting that a rise the numbers and/or freedoms of fuzzy-wuzzys, bog-trotters and split-arses has lead to a rise in crime?

[iain]

Quote:

Originally posted by Jon_in_london
Are you suggesting that a rise the numbers and/or freedoms of fuzzy-wuzzys, bog-trotters and split-arses has lead to a rise in crime?

It's as if you read my mind