| JREF Homepage | Swift Blog | Events Calendar | $1 Million Paranormal Challenge | The Amaz!ng Meeting | Useful Links | Support Us |
![]() |
|
|
|
|||||||
| Notices |
| Welcome to the JREF Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today. |
|
|
#361 |
|
Grammaton Cleric
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Swingin' on a star
Posts: 7,123
|
|
|
__________________
"The perfect haiku would have just two syllables: Airwolf" ~ Ernest Cline "Science knows it doesn't know everything, otherwise it would stop" ~ Dara O'Briain. |
|
|
|
|
|
#362 |
|
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Land That Time Forgot
Posts: 6,510
|
Let's try and clear this up (again, though FSM knows how often we have to go through this).
What is being said when people mention that anecdotes are not evidence is that anecdotes can not be solely used to validate themselves. No branch of science (or law for that matter) will rely solely on an anecdote to reach it's conclusion. With Poltergeist cases, all there ever is are anecdotes. Most of those anecdotes can be shown to be internally inconsistent, fraudulent or explained relatively easily by mundane and well known mechanisms. Not a single one of them has ever been conclusively validated as an actual Paranormal entity. Poltergeist research is based entirely upon people telling stories about their experiences. Any follow up work is based upon the assumption that these stories are accurate until proven otherwise (fallaciously using the 'innocent until proven guilty' premise). People using nothing but stories to validate that the story is true and because an explanation can not be found that adequately explains the story OMG! Poltergeists. Whether people's scepticism is "a priori" or not has no bearing upon the burden of proof if the claimant to validate their claim with something more than just their claim. Anecdotes are not evidence, they may be the starting point that can show us where to start looking for evidence. So far, when looking for evidence of Poltergeists, no paranormal entities have been found. |
|
__________________
It's only my madness that stops me from going insane! |
|
|
|
|
|
#363 |
|
Master Poster
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Kadath in the Cold Waste
Posts: 2,822
|
|
|
__________________
I'm an Anglican Christian, so I declare my prejudice here. Please take it in to account when reading my posts. "Most people would rather die than think: many do." - Betrand Russell My dull life blogged http://jerome23.wordpress.com |
|
|
|
|
|
#364 |
|
Master Poster
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Kadath in the Cold Waste
Posts: 2,822
|
What about Karger & Zicha (1968), Pratt & Palmer (1976), Persinger & Cameron (1986), Radin & Roll (1994), Maher & Hansen (1992), Maher & Hansen (1995)? These are all instrumentally driven papers?
PRATT. 1. G., & PALMER J., (1976) An investigation of an unpublicized family poltergeist. In J. D. Morris, W. G. Roll, & R. L. Morris (Eds.), Research in Parapsychology 1975. Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press. Pp. 109-115. RADIN D, & ROLL, W. G. (1994) A radioactive ghost in a music hall. Proceedings of the 37th Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association, Univer. of Amsterdam, August 7-10. MAHER M, & HANSEN G, (1992) Quantative investigation of a reported haunting using several detection techniques. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 86, 347-374. MAHER M, & HANSEN G (1995) Quantitative investigation of a "haunted castle" in New Jersey. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 89, 19-50. PERSINGER & CAMERON R (1986) Are earth faults at fault in some poltergeist episodes? Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 80, 49-73. KARGER F, & ZICHA,G . (1968) Physical investigation of psychokinetic phenomena in Rosenheim, Germany, 1967. Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association, 5: 33-35. There are instrumental approaches employed? cj x |
|
__________________
I'm an Anglican Christian, so I declare my prejudice here. Please take it in to account when reading my posts. "Most people would rather die than think: many do." - Betrand Russell My dull life blogged http://jerome23.wordpress.com |
|
|
|
|
|
#365 |
|
Grammaton Cleric
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Swingin' on a star
Posts: 7,123
|
|
|
__________________
"The perfect haiku would have just two syllables: Airwolf" ~ Ernest Cline "Science knows it doesn't know everything, otherwise it would stop" ~ Dara O'Briain. |
|
|
|
|
|
#366 |
|
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Land That Time Forgot
Posts: 6,510
|
|
|
__________________
It's only my madness that stops me from going insane! |
|
|
|
|
|
#367 |
|
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 15,305
|
|
|
|
|
|
#368 |
|
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 15,305
|
|
|
|
|
|
#369 |
|
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Land That Time Forgot
Posts: 6,510
|
Indeed a first hand testimony (anecdote) of a gun shot wound which after a very quick examination reveals no evidence of there actually being a gun shot wound would be dismissed without any further investigation being necessary.
"I was shot by a ghostly bullet from a ghostly gun and it's wounded my chakras" doesn't even need quick examination, it's an unfalsifiable story. |
|
__________________
It's only my madness that stops me from going insane! |
|
|
|
|
|
#370 |
|
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Not Bandiagara
Posts: 7,187
|
I learned that your arguments indicate an aversion to critical thinking which is far greater than it had initially appeared. I learned that no matter how patient and cooperative someone is in trying to help you past that hurdle, your replies show a steadfast resistance to that help. Shall we expect you to teach us more of the same today?
Quote:
Indeed.
Quote:
Your willful ignorance of skepticism and critical thinking, to the extent that you tag skepticism as pseudo-skepticism, is noted. You're here at the JREF forums where the tools of critical thinking are freely made available to pretty much anyone who crosses the threshold. All you have to do is want to learn how to apply critical thinking. I find it interesting that believers put so much effort into resisting learning those tools.
Quote:
My critical analysis of any claim starts where any analysis should start. I do not start from the middle, a method undertaken by you and Andyman409, where "poltergeists exist" and "poltergeists don't exist" are given equal weight. Your suggestion that people should be debunking claims which have never been objectively shown to be reasonable is BS. It's dishonest and wholly unskeptical. Here's where skepticism starts... Of all the phenomena which have been considered as possibly caused by poltergeists, how many times have those phenomena been objectively determined to be caused by poltergeists?The honest answer is, of course, zero. There is no objective evidence to support the claim that poltergeists exist, your persistent willful ignorance of that fact notwithstanding. If you want to make an argument that poltergeists exist, you build up from there, a process which you have not yet begun. The null hypothesis is something like... All phenomena attributed to poltergeists is the result of purely natural mundane causes.Falsify that and you might be onto something. In the meantime, all your whining about failing is just more whining and failing.
Quote:
Why don't you try providing some objective evidence for the existence of poltergeists. And if you don't have any, maybe try being honest for a change and admitting that. The smarmy condescension doesn't appear to be moving your argument forward in the least. |
|
|
|
|
#371 |
|
Master Poster
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Kadath in the Cold Waste
Posts: 2,822
|
geemack. apologies if I was rude. I agree with you on the null hypothesis. And yes on knowledge of the issues in poltergeist research I may come over as rather confident. its what I do and so I'm pretty assertive.
I'm sorry though if I offended you. I have a fairly open contempt for people who critique others research without putting the effort in -- and I am used to dealing with hard core academic sceptics so I apologise if I was hasty.cj x |
|
__________________
I'm an Anglican Christian, so I declare my prejudice here. Please take it in to account when reading my posts. "Most people would rather die than think: many do." - Betrand Russell My dull life blogged http://jerome23.wordpress.com |
|
|
|
|
|
#372 |
|
Incurable Optimist
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Almost in the New Forest, Hampshire, UK
Posts: 2,867
|
|
|
__________________
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. |
|
|
|
|
|
#373 |
|
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Dublin (the one in Ireland)
Posts: 7,140
|
Well I'm quite familiar with Wilson and his work. He's completetly failed to demonstrate that the phenomena he claims exist actually do so. Juts like all the other "researchers" in this field.
As for the comparison to Einstein........... ![]() So what? he's writen books, so have I. Where's his evidence for the paranormal. Feel free to demonstrate your evidence. Oh dear not the "real skeptics" line again. ![]() Indeed. |
|
__________________
Yes I gave in and configured an avatar. |
|
|
|
|
|
#374 |
|
Master Poster
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Kadath in the Cold Waste
Posts: 2,822
|
Just to update, I have set up and organised a replication of a classic experiment in this area but having increased the number of participants by a rather significant level. It will run for thirty days, and I will then publish the replication, but it should actually throw some factual light on the subject. I won't describe it here and now as I don't want to have any effect on the participants or outcome, but I promise faithfully I shall make the paper available online to everyone once it's completed. If anyone would like to know more at this stage, simply pm me.
cj x |
|
__________________
I'm an Anglican Christian, so I declare my prejudice here. Please take it in to account when reading my posts. "Most people would rather die than think: many do." - Betrand Russell My dull life blogged http://jerome23.wordpress.com |
|
|
|
|
|
#375 |
|
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 8,039
|
|
|
|
|
|
#376 |
|
Master Poster
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Kadath in the Cold Waste
Posts: 2,822
|
|
|
__________________
I'm an Anglican Christian, so I declare my prejudice here. Please take it in to account when reading my posts. "Most people would rather die than think: many do." - Betrand Russell My dull life blogged http://jerome23.wordpress.com |
|
|
|
|
|
#377 |
|
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Land That Time Forgot
Posts: 6,510
|
|
|
__________________
It's only my madness that stops me from going insane! |
|
|
|
|
|
#378 |
|
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 251
|
Andyman409 opened this topic "What is the best evidence for Poltergeists?" and said one book is the most authoritative book on the topic. The first three answers:
#2: #3: Like SusanB – is the majority here pleased with these answers? In my opinion they don't give very scientific or civil and polite impression. For example Richard Wiseman and Susan Blackmore think the poltergeists are explained either by usual psychological phenomena or by tricks. Is this corroborated by the evidence? There is a good article about the evidence, here: http://www.jerome23.wordpress.com/wh...probably-wrong. Okay, the majority here will say that is not evidence at all, even as huge mass of anecdotes as ever is worth of nothing. But that majority also thinks skeptical rumors are better evidence than reports written by trained investigators who have been on the spot and themselves seen something happening, like William Roll for example. So there is nothing to do with those skeptics. How can the following phenomena to be explained psychologically: - several observers see an object flying slowly in the air - a picture on a wall falls down with the string and hook intact - there are metallurgical anomalies in metal pieces - objects broken without visible cause - very fragile objects falling on a hard floor without breaking Most psychologists are unable to evaluate physical phenomena. If there are material traces, then material scientists are needed to explain them. But nothing is "proven" because: - all the observers are lying - they have psychological ability to deceive themselves - there has been an unseen conjurer nearby There we are. |
|
__________________
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance -- that principle is contempt prior to investigation. -- Herbert Spencer |
|
|
|
|
|
#379 |
|
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Denmark
Posts: 3,482
|
"Trained investigators"! You mean paranormal believers will somehow be able to turn anecdotes into evidence?
The bottom line is that poltergeists only appear when trickery is possible. |
|
__________________
Steen -- Jack of all trades - master of none! |
|
|
|
|
|
#380 |
|
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 251
|
|
|
__________________
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance -- that principle is contempt prior to investigation. -- Herbert Spencer |
|
|
|
|
|
#381 |
|
Nitpicking dilettante
Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Berkshire, mostly
Posts: 24,622
|
|
|
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 |
|
|
|
|
|
#382 |
|
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 251
|
Skeptics don't know much about psi. In the skeptical literature the best psi-evidence is always missing, it is avoided. So carefully avoided that it seems to be dishonest.
Have you not yet noticed that skeptics believe they are all the time defending science and reason? Yes, I know. The skeptics are not obliged to produce anything. And naturally, lying and trickery is absolutely _always_ possible. |
|
__________________
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance -- that principle is contempt prior to investigation. -- Herbert Spencer |
|
|
|
|
|
#384 |
|
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 251
|
Paranormal believers? Perhaps you can give some names as examples?
BTW, have you read this article: Deception by Subjects in Psi Research GEORGE P. HANSEN http://www.tricksterbook.com/Article...ySubjects.html If you have read it, please tell your comments here. |
|
__________________
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance -- that principle is contempt prior to investigation. -- Herbert Spencer |
|
|
|
|
|
#385 |
|
Nitpicking dilettante
Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Berkshire, mostly
Posts: 24,622
|
I don't suppose you can point to any of this 'evidence'?
Quote:
Quote:
|
|
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 |
|
|
|
|
|
#386 |
|
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Land That Time Forgot
Posts: 6,510
|
|
|
__________________
It's only my madness that stops me from going insane! |
|
|
|
|
|
#387 |
|
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Land That Time Forgot
Posts: 6,510
|
|
|
__________________
It's only my madness that stops me from going insane! |
|
|
|
|
|
#388 |
|
Nitpicking dilettante
Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Berkshire, mostly
Posts: 24,622
|
You know that's by cj.23, also posting in this thread?
Quote:
|
|
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 |
|
|
|
|
|
#389 |
|
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Not Bandiagara
Posts: 7,187
|
The very scientific answers were 0, nothing, nil, none, nada, zip, zero, zilch, the empty set, the null domain. That's quantitative stuff there, as scientific as it gets. Would you prefer those perfectly accurate answers to be couched in some kind of conciliatory waffling to make them civil or polite? Here, try this... There is no objective evidence to support the claim that poltergeists exist.
Quote:
Yes, you're catching on. A huge mass of anecdotes does not constitute objective evidence, and if presented as such is worth nothing. Correct.
Quote:
It looks like you're trying to make nonsense sound all scientifical. But okay, these alleged trained investigators, who were they trained by, and where? What sort of special training does it take to investigate poltergesits, or even to investigate anything that is not objectively known to exist?
Quote:
Questions are not evidence. Your incredulity is not evidence. Your ignorance is not evidence. All the anecdotes that spurred those questions are not evidence, not one at a time and not when taken in bulk. As a semi-professional magician I have the knowledge and skills to reproduce nearly all of the effects you've described. And even if there were no mundane explanations for the anecdotes, that still would not lead to any particular conclusion, certainly not to a conclusion that requires the existence of something which has never been objectively shown to exist.
Quote:
Yes, those are just a few of the many plausible mundane explanations. There are many, many more. In any case, when scientifically considering the possible causes for an effect, the causes which are known to exist and which don't violate the known laws of physics are on the table. All causes that require making up entirely unknown agents can be pretty much summarily dismissed.
Quote:
Yes, there you are. Please review the critical consideration I've given to your comments. Then perhaps you'll understand how you haven't provided a mote of support for the claim that poltergeists exist. This is the JREF where skeptics and critical thinkers are always glad to help. |
|
|
|
|
#390 |
|
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Not Bandiagara
Posts: 7,187
|
Skeptics know there is no objective evidence to support the claim that psi exists. That's pretty much all anyone needs to know.
Quote:
The most pragmatic explanation for that is it's missing because there is none.
Quote:
No, it's not avoided. It doesn't exist.
Quote:
The truth may seem dishonest to you if you believe in magical powers. But noting that there is no objective evidence to support the existence of those alleged magical powers is as honest as one can possibly be.
Quote:
Yes. That's one way of defining skepticism. Here at the JREF forums we teach the skills required to do that. If you ever care to learn the skills of critical thinking, just ask! ![]()
Quote:
Correct. It would be dishonest for the believers to shift the burden of proof. If you believe in psi or poltergeists, you are required to produce the evidence. It would be foolish to suggest the skeptics have any obligation to produce evidence for the nonexistence of something.
Quote:
Yes, it is. And oddly enough it is very often shown to be the cause of alleged paranormal effects. And not so oddly, magical powers are never shown to be the cause. Do you not find that little slice of reality the least bit compelling? |
|
|
|
|
#391 |
|
Incurable Optimist
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Almost in the New Forest, Hampshire, UK
Posts: 2,867
|
Lusikka
Why do you think you would prefer the explanations to be paranormal ones? Don't you think you are underestimating the capabilities of your brain by so doing? When I was young, I was fascinated by astrology, palmistry, etc and read all sorts of stuff, including several books by Cheiro!!, but count myself lucky that I always had a sceptical turn of mind which kept my feet firmly on the ground!
|
|
__________________
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. |
|
|
|
|
|
#392 |
|
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Denmark
Posts: 3,482
|
And we know that 'trained investigators' are precautions against fraud?
Quote:
What is a 'trained investigator'? I assumed that it was one who had been receiving training in recognising poltergeists, i.e. a paranormal believer. Or where can one receive such training? Can you give a name of a trained investigator who has studied poltergeists and who is not a believer?
Quote:
|
|
__________________
Steen -- Jack of all trades - master of none! |
|
|
|
|
|
#393 |
|
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 251
|
SusanB, thank you for your polite answer.
I think you have misunderstood what I think. "Paranormal" is not an explanation at all. I prefer the term "psi" which is more neutral in my opinion. Psi is for me only a "working name" referring to unexplained observations. It is empty of background meanings such as ghosts, angels, quantum radiation, thought fields, and so on. I don't think I am underestimating the capabilities of human brain, but I think you are overestimating them. Your brain is not able without mediation by muscles to bend spoons, draw screws out of walls, get ceramic fishes fall down from the wall with the hanging nail and string intact. These are observations I have myself made or have verified the observations by very reliable people I have known for a long time. Yes, I know your personal history well because I have read a good amount of your writings. I have even written about you and Savva on my blog, http://parapsykologia.blogspot.fi. Perhaps it is best not to say more here. But I personally don't know who this Cheiro is and I have never been fascinated by astrology, palmistry, tarot, and so on. And I think my feet are firmly on the ground, also taking in account the material world. |
|
__________________
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance -- that principle is contempt prior to investigation. -- Herbert Spencer |
|
|
|
|
|
#394 |
|
Philosopher
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 7,197
|
|
|
__________________
It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
|
|
|
|
|
#395 |
|
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 251
|
You are right. You ought to tell me first what you mean with the word "evidence" in the case of poltergeists.
In actual science scientist must be very careful about things called facts. Not so in skepticism. How do you know that? Examples? |
|
__________________
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance -- that principle is contempt prior to investigation. -- Herbert Spencer |
|
|
|
|
|
#396 |
|
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Denmark
Posts: 3,482
|
|
|
__________________
Steen -- Jack of all trades - master of none! |
|
|
|
|
|
#397 |
|
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 251
|
|
|
__________________
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance -- that principle is contempt prior to investigation. -- Herbert Spencer |
|
|
|
|
|
#398 |
|
Philosopher
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 7,197
|
|
|
__________________
It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
|
|
|
|
|
#399 |
|
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 251
|
|
|
__________________
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance -- that principle is contempt prior to investigation. -- Herbert Spencer |
|
|
|
|
|
#400 |
|
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 8,014
|
Lusikka, lots of people with varying levels of interest and time read these threads.
Not everyone has the background to knowlegeably sift through the information out there. Why not post up what you think is the most convincing evidence for poltergeists? I'd be interesting in seeing your short list of observed phenomena. |
|
|
![]() |
| Bookmarks |
| Thread Tools | |
|
|