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#81 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: The White Zone
Posts: 42,273
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__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him. |
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#82 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The realm of ideas
Posts: 3,881
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But that's not taking into account aggregating and scale. The top 1% are only a twentieth of the bottom quintile, thus, even with the same population volatility at all levels, the mean standard deviation will be 4.47 larger comparing any group comprising 1% of the population to any group of 20% of the population.
Second, they're not losing disproportionately, they always gain disproportionately, but that gain fluctuates more because there's a lot more room to manoeuver, and because we're comparing a group 20 times smaller. The bottom quintile can't lose thousands/millions/billions. But market/monetary risk is also not the whole story for them. Behind that "steady predictable" bottom quintile line are many more stories of people and families losing their jobs, home, livelihood, insurance, health with no golden parachute. When that top line dips on the graphs, for every top 1%er who "lost everything", there's easily 20 bottom fifth earners who lost everything too. But there's a social safety net that prevents their contribution to the graph from dipping too much. And society ends up paying for that "risk" the top guys took. |
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"Help control the local pet population: teach your dog abstinence." -Stephen Colbert "My dad believed laughter is the best medicine. Which is why several of us died of tuberculosis."- Unknown source, heard from Grey Delisle on Rob Paulsen's podcast |
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#83 |
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Mormon Atheist
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Southern California
Posts: 53,203
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You are saying life is appreciably better since it was during Clinton? Things are getting better over the long haul but that has nothing to do with increased wealth among the rich. That's NOT been established at all. Progress isn't a smooth ramp and in this case the data does not favor you. It's actually the inverse.
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Ego, ain't it a bitch? It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. --Adam Smith |
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#84 |
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Mormon Atheist
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Southern California
Posts: 53,203
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__________________
Ego, ain't it a bitch? It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. --Adam Smith |
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#85 |
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Mormon Atheist
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Southern California
Posts: 53,203
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they come here because job prospects are better. They got nothing in their home town. Look, I'm not disparaging America. You can get off of that meme. I'm saying I find little to no correlation between increased wealth at the top of and bottom of the ladder.
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Ego, ain't it a bitch? It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. --Adam Smith |
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#86 |
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Mormon Atheist
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Southern California
Posts: 53,203
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__________________
Ego, ain't it a bitch? It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. --Adam Smith |
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#87 |
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Mormon Atheist
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Southern California
Posts: 53,203
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As a capitalist and Rand fan, I have no affinity for "eat the rich" populism but then I kinda doubt that it exists much. People want to go back to the days when the rich paid more in taxes and economic times were better. It's fair to argue that they are deluded and taxing the rich won't do anything but that's not the straw man you have erected for your opponents.
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Ego, ain't it a bitch? It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. --Adam Smith |
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#88 |
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Agave Wine Connoisseur
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Just past 'Resume Speed'
Posts: 12,873
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__________________
" Somewhere between Jesus dying on the cross, and a giant bunny hiding eggs,there seems to be a gap in information. " Stan - Southpark Prove your computer is not a wimp ! Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 |
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#89 |
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post-pre-born
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Santa Barbara, CA
Posts: 16,369
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Doesn't matter. My reply to your question remains valid.
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#90 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,293
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No, it is, those working the entry level jobs did see their income go up during that period, are you assuming that each year those categories are populated with the same exact people? Wouldn't you think that most started in the bottom one and moved up at least some during that period.
Just curious did you inquire just who comprises that top 1% of income? What sectors do they work in? |
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"Honi soit qui mal y pense." |
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#91 |
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Crazy Little Green Dragon
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,107
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Hmm. Just eyeballing your graph for the separated brackets of after tax income gain... it looks to me like there is actually is a correlation, at the level of general rising and falling. Between the top and bottom, it's not a strong correlation, by the looks of it, but it is one.
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So sayeth the crazy little dragon. |
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#92 |
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Mormon Atheist
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Southern California
Posts: 53,203
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Wouldn't it make sense that when the economy is improving that everyone benefits? I've already stipulated that there is a correlation tied to an improving economy. I see no evidence of a correlation that could justify supply side economics. Especially given current conditions. Increased profits and increased wealth has not translated into increased wealth for the lower tiers.
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Ego, ain't it a bitch? It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. --Adam Smith |
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#93 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,293
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No, I think it's more along the lines of some people needing to look more skeptically at certain political websites, university departments and media outlets with an understanding that those who've already 'debunked' the opposition's positions probably don't even understand what the position actually is and guilt by association and 'outrage' is a piss-poor way of conducting a political debate.
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"Honi soit qui mal y pense." |
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#94 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,293
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__________________
"Honi soit qui mal y pense." |
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#95 |
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Crazy Little Green Dragon
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,107
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Unless I recall incorrectly... correlation isn't causation. Why it happened isn't specifically relevant to whether there's a correlation, for that matter. Two things with no real connection could easily have a correlation, for that matter, over some period of time. Some of the "Bizarre election predictors" come to mind, as an example.
As a note, I'm not attempting to dispute the more relevant points that you've raised, given my lack of expertise on the subjects involved. I am only questioning how proper it is to say that there's no correlation at all, rather than a weak correlation that is better explained by other means. |
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So sayeth the crazy little dragon. |
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#96 |
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Mormon Atheist
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Southern California
Posts: 53,203
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We must at least establish correlation. If there is no correlation there is nothing to look at. If there is no correlation we can all go home.
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It wasn't my intent to disprove supply side economics with the OP. However my rhetoric, as little of it as there was of it, did me no favors. I concede there is a correlation but the parsimonious answer as to why both rise and fail is primarily due to a rising and falling economy. To then assert that the rise and fall are, in part or in whole, due to supply side economics would require a model with explanatory and predictive power. Just like the relationship between summer and ice cream sales, or summer and swimming. In this case we need to consider parsimony. What is the simplest explanation for this ever so small correlation? Isn't the rise and fall of the economy the prosaic answer? Hasn't the relationship always been the same regardless of tax rates? Didn't the fortunes of rich and poor both rise in good times and both fall in bad times? What we need is a control. We need to see if the correlation between the rising wealth of rich and poor are stronger when taxes are low and weaker when they are high. Here's my point: Tax rates are at near record lows and have been for more than 10 years and I see no evidence that the fortunes of the poor are rising any faster than they have been in the past. Her's my question: If supply side economics worked wouldn't we see a greater rise in the wealth of the bottom tiers of society than we have in the past? |
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Ego, ain't it a bitch? It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. --Adam Smith |
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#97 |
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Master Poster
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,946
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#98 |
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Mormon Atheist
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Southern California
Posts: 53,203
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Happy birthday BTW:
I don't know. I know that David Stockman (Reagan's budget director) thinks it can as it did under Reagan. I know that Ben Stein (a conservative economist) thinks it's necessary. I know that two Nobel Prize winning economists (Stiglitz and Krugman) are calling for increased tax rates for the rich. We tried lowering the rates for 10 years. I would hope that we could raise them back to where they were under Clinton. |
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Ego, ain't it a bitch? It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. --Adam Smith |
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#99 |
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Eigenmode: Cynic
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 2,527
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__________________
A person who won't think has no advantage over one who can't think. - (paraphrased) Mark Twain Diversity--When all colors and creeds believe exactly as liberals want them to. Or Else! -Coyote |
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#100 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,293
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Was it this thread where you posted the collection of economists who were pretty sure income tax rates being lowered wouldn't increase revenues five years down the road? Following that link they also were more inclined to think the economy would grow more if income tax rates were lowered; those are two different concepts there, the budget problem, and the growth in the economy. The theories and evidence for that is separate, as you can gather from the differences in their responses.
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"Honi soit qui mal y pense." |
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#101 |
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Mormon Atheist
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Southern California
Posts: 53,203
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__________________
Ego, ain't it a bitch? It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. --Adam Smith |
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#102 |
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post-pre-born
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Santa Barbara, CA
Posts: 16,369
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#103 |
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Master Poster
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,946
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I don't have any answers... but I wonder. There are so many different factors now then when Clinton was president, beyond anyones control. There is an aging population... when Clinton was president the baby boomers were hitting their stride.... now they are retiring. Foreign competition wasn't near as strong and the abilities to move entire industries not as possible as it is today..... I'm sure it's not going to hurt to much to raise taxes to where they were in the Clinton years.... But I really think there are a million more things that could be done... I don't know what they are... but I like them when I see them.... I didn't mind the small tax on trades idea.... though I'm not familiar with trading.
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#104 |
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Master Poster
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,946
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I think I'll post some Carolla on the thread
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#105 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,121
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No - you've missed my point completely.
Trickle-down is a dismissive term for the reasonable idea that if the state 'advantages' the producers (at a low enough cost), that this will have a beneficial economic effect for the general economy. Corporate profits are not some boon given by the state to producers, so the graph is irrelevant to any discussion of trickle-down. Then how do you explain constant tendency on the Left to heap taxes ever more disproportionately on the wealthy ? It is the very core of contention in the current budget crisis. Your out of context Smith quote suggests you might believe this too. Explain it to us - why does Bill Gates (personally) owe a dime more to the social costs of the US Federal government that you do ? If the top 10% paying 71% of all federal taxes is not sufficient - then what fraction is sufficient ? What sort of healthy egalitarian democracy can we have when almost 50% of filers pay no federal tax, except that which supports their own retirement & medicare insurance ? It's nonsense to suggest that the Left has no animus toward the wealthy. Read Obama's speeches filled with wealth-warfare and inciting envy.
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Really ? I strongly suggest that you investigate exactly how little of that wealth was confiscated by the 90% rates pre-Kennedy. Before the AMT there were massive loopholes broadly available. Today there is very little income, almost nothing, that can escape the AMT 28% floor rate. The main examples of class warfare demagoguery offered by Obama are people who have very little regular income. Warren Buffet can structure his companies to makes all his revenue from cap gains. The 2 lawyer family, or your dry cleaner operator or McD franchiser making $400k cannot. OTOH if your retired granny was a good saver then it's likely she is paying the cap-gain rates too. Increasing the tax on cap gains will indeed harm Mr.Buffet, but it will also harm investment and markets a lot more. Its idiotic except to the mindless wealth-haters out there. Yes, if I was trying to devastate the economy as President, I'd bump up the CapGains tax rates which greatly reduces risk capital and curbs growth, I'd derail any budget talks with farcical extra-constitutional demands that I set spending caps, and I'd make sure that interest rates increase. 2 out of 3 and counting. |
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#106 |
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Agave Wine Connoisseur
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Just past 'Resume Speed'
Posts: 12,873
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__________________
" Somewhere between Jesus dying on the cross, and a giant bunny hiding eggs,there seems to be a gap in information. " Stan - Southpark Prove your computer is not a wimp ! Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 |
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#107 |
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Mormon Atheist
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Southern California
Posts: 53,203
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__________________
Ego, ain't it a bitch? It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. --Adam Smith |
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#108 |
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Mormon Atheist
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Southern California
Posts: 53,203
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This is so illustrative of the kind of religous mentality for conservative thought. I don't know how to tell you this steve but the trend in taxes is ever less and not ever more. If you look at the overall picture for effective tax rates you will see that it is decreasing and not increasing. It rarely increases so you are making a claim that is simply false. The two sides have been in a tug of war over the tax rate for some time. Dems typically want it higher (but they know there is a point of diminishing returns and there is a point that you can't raise it any higher). The Republicans want it lower and even most of them agree that it shouldn't be zero.
So, you are laboring under a false frame given you by the puppet masters.
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Since moving to the left a year ago I've started listening to more leftist voices (though I don't share much leftist ideology). I have a little bit of bad news for you. Many on the left hate Obama because he is too damn deferential to rich people and the status quo. If Obama had animus for the wealthy his priorities would be very, very different. It's true that many on the left see Obama as more useful than any Republican but they don't at all like his failures to fight harder against the corrupt rich folks who are ruining this nation. Seriously improve your game or I'm just going to put you on ignore. Your post is just vacuous propaganda. |
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Ego, ain't it a bitch? It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. --Adam Smith |
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#109 |
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NWO Master Conspirator
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Albany Park, Chicago
Posts: 49,008
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#110 |
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NWO Master Conspirator
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Albany Park, Chicago
Posts: 49,008
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#111 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: The White Zone
Posts: 42,273
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Not only that, but corporate profits belong to the shareholders of that corporation. The subject is completely irrelevant to anyone who isn't a shareholder. But the whiners on the left seem to think that because Apple is sitting on $50 billion in cash (or whatever), that somehow some portion of that should be given to them, even though they don't own shares. How dare Apple have that much money!!!
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If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him. |
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#112 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: The White Zone
Posts: 42,273
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__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him. |
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#113 |
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Agave Wine Connoisseur
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Just past 'Resume Speed'
Posts: 12,873
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It may have just been speculative rhetoric, but I have heard numbers that indicate that if the top 10% income earners paid all of their income in taxes, it wouldn't make much of a dent in the deficit..
Speaking of fair, what would be nice, would be if the 46% of people who filed tax reports, actually paid a little tax, and if we stopped refunding taxes to people who didn't pay any .. |
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" Somewhere between Jesus dying on the cross, and a giant bunny hiding eggs,there seems to be a gap in information. " Stan - Southpark Prove your computer is not a wimp ! Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 |
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#114 |
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Mormon Atheist
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Southern California
Posts: 53,203
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__________________
Ego, ain't it a bitch? It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. --Adam Smith |
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#115 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: The White Zone
Posts: 42,273
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__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him. |
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#116 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Bohemian Grove
Posts: 3,517
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No, it has merit. The constant whining about how unfair tax rates are is an emotional appeal and nothing else. I would like to see Obama make his case on the grounds of what he expects positive and negative results of tax hikes will be and why he thinks that the positives make it a worthwhile tradeoff for the negatives. I do not give a **** if he holds a moral value judgement that it isn't fair that Warren Buffet pays a lower tax rate than his secretary. His moral views and constant appeals to emotion about them are a poor substitute for arguments based on policy outcomes. And you are simply being delusional if you think he has not been deliberately and knowingly making emotional appeals about "fairness".
ETA-I think in the case of repealing the top rate tax cut from Bush he can make a valid argument that it would be good policy, not so much on the long term capital gains tax rate though. But he doesn't seem to be very concerned about making a valid case for either. |
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#117 |
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Mormon Atheist
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Southern California
Posts: 53,203
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It's unfair to be born disadvantaged. That's not controversial. But when any attempt is made to improve the standing of the poor the rich scream bloody murder. How UNFAIR! Go **** yourself. You were born advantaged. THAT'S unfair. So we try to make the playing field a little more fair to the poor and otherwise disadvantaged. Nothing is more dishonest than a rich person screaming "unfair". As if the rich person truly gives a damn about fairness. BS.
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Ego, ain't it a bitch? It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. --Adam Smith |
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#118 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: The White Zone
Posts: 42,273
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You make a good point. Tell us exactly (+/- a few billion) how much you*** expect increased rates on the upper income earners will bring in. Then do something no politician will ever do - at the end of the year, write one of those giant checks like they give to lottery winners and PGA golfers made out to the US Treasury. But they won't - it's extra revenue. They only know how to do one thing with that - spend it.
***By "you" I mean the POTUS, not you. |
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If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him. |
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#119 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: The White Zone
Posts: 42,273
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__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him. |
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#120 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Bohemian Grove
Posts: 3,517
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This may surprise a lot of people but negative tax rates are the brainchild of evil right wing capitalist extraordinaire Milton Friedman and a very compelling argument can be made to expand them.
The gist is that all welfare transfers are essentially negative taxes, the bureaucratic costs of all the various welfare schemes around the nation can be greatly reduced by replacing them into streamlined direct negative tax payments rather than the mess we have now. While this obviously hasn't been fully realized, the earned income tax credit is based on the idea and has been quite successful. A little more here. |
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