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Old 4th December 2012, 03:48 PM   #361
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
Yes we do have life on planet earth. We also happen to be the only blue planet in out solar system that supports life.
And there are perhaps septillions of planets in the universe. 1 septillion inches would be nearly 2,685,000 light years.

Quote:
We know there are billion and billions of planets and million of galaxies like our Milky Way.
Sorry, but billions and billions doesn't even come remotely close. And try 80 to 100 billion galaxies, not millions.

Quote:
So it is a speculation that with such large numbers the probability of life existing among those billions and billions of planets are quite reasonable.
Yes, a reasonable speculation based on empirical evidence

Quote:
That is what the Drake Equation tries to calculate.
Wrong. Sorry, the Drake equation wasn't meant to calculate the number of civilizations in the universe. It was meant to illustrate the effect that the vast number of chances has on the frequency of even highly improbable events. It was meant to show that even if the odds of civilizations arising is extremely small, the number of chances is incomprehensibly large.

Quote:
That is what Carl Sagan used to support his search for ETI.
Yes, he and the other SETI scientists considered the vast scale of the universe as a factor that increases the probability of life evolving throughout the universe.

Quote:
Today after 50 years of SETI. The number of planets scientist think are capable is reduced to a little over hundred tops.
Please cite a source for this claim.

(By the way, commas are your friends.)

Quote:
And even there is could be microbial and not the ETI Carl Sagan envisioned.
Gee, you think microbes (or other simple organisms) will vastly outnumber intelligent, technological life? Image that.

Quote:
Please don`t ask for link. I did not save it.
Did you just learn to use the internet last week? Surely you won't have any difficulty plugging something like "number of worlds capable of supporting life" or "only 100 worlds with life" into a search engine, no?

You didn't just make it up, did you?
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Old 4th December 2012, 03:50 PM   #362
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
It is no help to Sagan. It just shows the picture is not very rosy for people approximating large numbers of finds when it is extremely reduced. The fact NASA has stopped funding SETI should be evidence it is not the preferred way to look for ETI. Nor does Stephen Hawking recommend we look for them. They might not be all that altruistic.
Evasion and illogic. Your can't claim that Sagan made an irrational choice based on information gathered after he died.

Hawking recommends that we do not attempt to contact aliens. He does not say we should not look for them.
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Old 4th December 2012, 03:53 PM   #363
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Drake Equation and results:




R* = 1/year (1 stars formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
fp = 0.2-0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
ne = 1-5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
fi = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
fc = 0.1-0.2 (10-20% of which will be able to communicate)
L = 1000-100,000,000 years (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years)
Drake states that given the uncertainties, the original meeting concluded that N ≈ L, and there were probably between 1000 and 100,000,000 civilizations in the galaxy.


ETA: apparently the format of the equation itself didn't work in the forums format parameters

Last edited by StankApe; 4th December 2012 at 03:55 PM.
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Old 4th December 2012, 03:56 PM   #364
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
It is no help to Sagan. It just shows the picture is not very rosy for people approximating large numbers of finds when it is extremely reduced. The fact NASA has stopped funding SETI should be evidence it is not the preferred way to look for ETI. [...].
You have a better way to look for ETI? I'd love to read it.
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Old 4th December 2012, 03:56 PM   #365
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
Get another mechanic. Why pay for a total analysis of the problem when all you only want it to have your car fixed and a mechanic who knows how to fix it. I am sure a scientist can also fix your car using his scientific method. How much are you willing to pay him to get it fixed.
Perhaps you are simply a contrarian troll. Maybe you are simply obstreperous and have a psychological need for conflict, and this makes you willing to present arguments that you know are appallingly asinine, because you don't care how it reflects on you as long as you can contradict people.

The alternative would be even sadder.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:01 PM   #366
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
You are one confused person.
I made a statement explaining how the Skeptics accumulated doubts reach a saturation point then panic and fear creeps in.

I then posted a link to show The Role of the Amygdala in Fear and Panic.
The amygdala deals with fear and panic. It is the part of the brain that responds to fear.
What you fail to realize is that you have posted a lie.
You may try to divert the issue to my supposed "confusion" (interesting how anytime someone points out your errors, they are "confused"), but the truth is, right there in black and white, you rode your hobbyhorse about skeptics being ruled by fear into the post, then pretended that you had provided source for your quote.

If they are your words, why did you format them as a quote?
If they are not your words, why did you fail to provide a source?
If the article does not support the quote, why is it there, without provenance, segue, or justification?

Once again, there is no dishonor in admitting a mistake.
There is great dishonor in trying to cover it up, or to divert attention from it, or to lie your way out of it.

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Old 4th December 2012, 04:03 PM   #367
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
So, what we've established here isn't that justintime didn't cite his sources properly because he made an honest mistake or didn't know any better, rather that he didn't cite his sources properly because he was attempting to be dishonest about what they actually say. And that his dishonesty didn't work due to the critical thinking of some of the sceptics in this thread.
Welcome to the background radiation of dealing with Justin aka "justintime" aka "justinrapper" aka "jamalrapper"...
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:03 PM   #368
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When fifteen different people each try fifteen different ways to explain to something to a person, and that person still does not appear to understand, then one of two possibilities exist;

1. The person does not want to understand

2. The person is too stupid to understand


The essential difference between sceptic and CT;

A sceptic has views and opinions based on available evidence, and if that evidence changes or new evidence is found, the sceptic is prepared to reassess their view in favour of the supporting evidence.

A CT has views based on unbridled speculation and unscientific evidence and no matter how much accurate and verifiable evidence they are presented with that their view is wrong, they will never change it, rather they will first attack the person presenting the evidence and when that fails, they will attack the way the evidence was obtained, and when that fails, they will call the whole of science into question.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:04 PM   #369
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Nonsense. SETI was a project to search for signs of life elsewhere in the universe. Nobody pretended that we could have real time two-way communication with a civilization hundreds of light years away. I'm afraid the irrationality being displayed is not coming from the source you fondly imagine.
The reason they have to go farther into space is because there are no signs of ETI in our neighborhood. And the SETI search is broadbased scanning millions of stars. You read the quote challenging Sagan.

Quote:
Sagan argued that thousands of technically advanced civilizations might be scattered across the galaxy. Some of these societies might be able to communicate with Earth via radio. The back-and-forth messaging might take centuries because of Albert Einstein’s speed limit on electromagnetic waves, but the participants felt the search for such signals was worthwhile anyway.
We will soon be able to see planets 10.5 light years away and even take pictures of it.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:05 PM   #370
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
Get another mechanic. Why pay for a total analysis of the problem when all you only want it to have your car fixed and a mechanic who knows how to fix it. I am sure a scientist can also fix your car using his scientific method. How much are you willing to pay him to get it fixed.
If you take it to a dealer, you'll get a technician who's been trained to follow a diagnostic procedure which was devised by an engineer using scientific method.

I'm too cheap to go to a dealer so I stick to DIY. I cut out the middle men and go straight to the scientific method and diagnose the fault myself.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:06 PM   #371
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
I have been posting on Skeptic forums for little over a year starting (09/21/11).. I accidentally stumbled on one trying to locate a discussion on phenotypes ( Pink flamingos) to be exact . The link was pointed by someone who turned out to be a troll and I have been trying to rehabilitate him ever since.
I was on Dawkins early 2010. before I discovered the Skeptic forums. I am big on science.
That wasn't the question. You criticized an unnamed poster for " 11,600 post in 3 years."

I asked before, and I ask again: How many posts have you made in the same period of time? Please spare us any dissimulation.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:08 PM   #372
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
Not true. What it shows is someone pointed to climate change skeptics emitting fear signals. I reviewed his analysis and found it could be applied to other areas and sources of fear that Skeptics are exposed to. Someone might come after me and further broaden the scope. This is not an exhaustive list of all the fears Skeptics suffer from.
I challenge you, among the clutter of all of your other pending problems, to give one honest citation of a skeptic's brain (or, for that matter, any human brain--I'm feeling generous) emitting what you call "fear signals". Book, chapter, verse, or admit you made it up.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:08 PM   #373
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Originally Posted by John Jones View Post
You have a better way to look for ETI? I'd love to read it.
There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy. NASA does not have that capability yet. Sort of if they won`t come to us we just have to go to them.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:12 PM   #374
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
At least you don`t have to worry about my analysis.
I first defined the Skeptic and then provided cause for his fears (doubts, uncertainty and insecurity) which built the case for panic and fear. For good measure I even located the seat of fear in the Skeptic brain.
Do you understand the difference between a hypothesis and a bald assertion?
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:14 PM   #375
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
The reason they have to go farther into space is because there are no signs of ETI in our neighborhood. And the SETI search is broadbased scanning millions of stars. You read the quote challenging Sagan.
I read the quote. The idea that it 'challenged' Sagan is entirely in your head. SETI was looking to see if ET was out there, broadcasting. Not to share cake recipes with him.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:14 PM   #376
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Originally Posted by StankApe View Post
Drake Equation and results:




R* = 1/year (1 stars formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
fp = 0.2-0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
ne = 1-5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
fi = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
fc = 0.1-0.2 (10-20% of which will be able to communicate)
L = 1000-100,000,000 years (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years)
Drake states that given the uncertainties, the original meeting concluded that N ≈ L, and there were probably between 1000 and 100,000,000 civilizations in the galaxy.


ETA: apparently the format of the equation itself didn't work in the forums format parameters
Carl Sagan explains the Drake Equation.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x27...h#.UL6RqIYlD4w
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:15 PM   #377
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
At least you don`t have to worry about my analysis.
I first defined the Skeptic and then provided cause for his fears (doubts, uncertainty and insecurity) which built the case for panic and fear. For good measure I even located the seat of fear in the Skeptic brain.
Well, no.

As usual, you attempted to apply your limited definition to a group of thinkers to which you do not (by your own claim) belong...a bit of chutzpah the temerity of which you seem to be blissfully unaware.

The you claimed that group of people to be insecure and motivated by fear--with no support other than your own opinion. An opinion that sits poorly with your need to resort to calumny, attempted insult, and attempted character assassination rather than addressing issues.

Then you presented your unsupported opinion as if it were a quote form an article.

The article you presented said nothing about skeptic's brains, dealing instead with fear in the brains of conditioned laboratory rats.

Wrong 4 times.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:16 PM   #378
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Originally Posted by John Jones View Post
That wasn't the question. You criticized an unnamed poster for " 11,600 post in 3 years."

I asked before, and I ask again: How many posts have you made in the same period of time? Please spare us any dissimulation.
Thats around 10.5 post per day. What a madman!

Of course, justintime started posting around 33 hours ago and is up to 59 posts as I type this. Even if he stopped now he'd have an average of 43 posts per day.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:17 PM   #379
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
I read the quote. The idea that it 'challenged' Sagan is entirely in your head. SETI was looking to see if ET was out there, broadcasting. Not to share cake recipes with him.
SETI was a project to setup radio communication with ETI. Only Skeptics are known for their one way communication.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:21 PM   #380
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Quote:
I first defined the Skeptic and then provided cause for his fears (doubts, uncertainty and insecurity) which built the case for panic and fear
The classic Straw Man argument.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:21 PM   #381
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
SETI was a project to setup radio communication with ETI. Only Skeptics are known for their one way communication.
Yes. Everything I have said to you, and others have said to you, on multiple fora has, in its effect, been one-way communication. Not that I won't keep trying.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:22 PM   #382
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy. NASA does not have that capability yet. Sort of if they won`t come to us we just have to go to them.
You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. I'm sorry to be so blunt, but quite seriously this is so many orders of magnitude removed from anything approaching reality that I stand frankly amazed.

The pinnacle of man-made long distance travel has now, after 3˝ decades, reached the edge of our solar system. Having jumped that puddle, the next closest star is an ocean away. The edge of our galaxy, mere fantasy.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:27 PM   #383
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
SETI was a project to setup radio communication with ETI. Only Skeptics are known for their one way communication.
SETI was the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. The clue was in the name. If useful information is only flowing one way in this conversation, that is not our fault.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:31 PM   #384
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy.

You post such idiocy seriously and pretend you are capable of saying anything remotely intelligent about Carl Sagan?
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:34 PM   #385
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. I'm sorry to be so blunt, but quite seriously this is so many orders of magnitude removed from anything approaching reality that I stand frankly amazed.

The pinnacle of man-made long distance travel has now, after 3˝ decades, reached the edge of our solar system. Having jumped that puddle, the next closest star is an ocean away. The edge of our galaxy, mere fantasy.

You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:38 PM   #386
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way.

I would stop digging, if I were you.

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:43 PM   #387
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I post wayyy too much, but I'm unemployed right now and have nothing better to do but complete job apps online and peruse the baseball hot stove updates... oh and post here!
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:44 PM   #388
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way.
I can assure you I would not forget anything like that.

30 thousand light years to the edge of the Milky Way.

Well over 2 million light years to the next nearest galaxy (if I recall correctly).

Better pack extra sandwiches.

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:49 PM   #389
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I think they do the scientific method in mathematics as well:

confront problem, form hypothesis of equation to solve problem, test hypothesis by completing equation, analyze results to see why the answer does or does not solve the problem.

so neener
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:49 PM   #390
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy. NASA does not have that capability yet. Sort of if they won`t come to us we just have to go to them.
OK Sybok. Let us know when you have found Shaka-ri
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► "Conspiracism is a shortcut to the illusion of erudition." - JayUtah
► Heisenberg's Law - The weirdness of the Universe is inversely proportional to the scale at which you observe it, or not.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:53 PM   #391
StankApe
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the NEXT generation of rockets?

more like the 475,000th next generation of rockets.
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Old 4th December 2012, 04:56 PM   #392
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy. NASA does not have that capability yet. Sort of if they won`t come to us we just have to go to them.
Let's see these plans. Put up or shut up, as they say.
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Old 4th December 2012, 05:01 PM   #393
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Perhaps the plans were stolen by a princess?
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Old 4th December 2012, 05:04 PM   #394
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Originally Posted by StankApe View Post
Perhaps the plans were stolen by a princess?
The dog ate them.
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Old 4th December 2012, 05:06 PM   #395
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I've got a bad toothache myself, but still.

One ought to be held to some minimal standard of evidence if they want to make straw man arguments against Carl Sagan, skepticism, and science as a whole.
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Old 4th December 2012, 05:07 PM   #396
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way.
How does one get to those launching pads?
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Old 4th December 2012, 05:10 PM   #397
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I would like to thank the OP as I had never read The Demon Haunted World (cuz I'm an idiot and never got around to it) but this thread inspired me to get 6 of his books for my Nook and I will be enjoying them over the next few weeks!
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Old 4th December 2012, 05:10 PM   #398
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Originally Posted by justintime View Post
You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way.

After this post^^^, there can no longer be any doubt that you are clueless.

Last edited by John Jones; 4th December 2012 at 05:27 PM. Reason: diction
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Old 4th December 2012, 05:11 PM   #399
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
How does one get to those launching pads?
I would imagine that these launch pads would have to be very large indeed to shoot such a vast and advanced rocket into space.

one could even say that they would have to be Maxi Pads






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Old 4th December 2012, 05:16 PM   #400
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Originally Posted by John Jones View Post
Originally Posted by justintime View Post
You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way.

After this post^^^, there can be no longer be any doubt that you are clueless.

And that nobody should take seriously anything that someone that ignorant posts on Carl Sagan, of all people.
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Last edited by AdMan; 4th December 2012 at 05:23 PM.
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