FREE TAPATALK APP

Foster Zygote · 4th December 2012, 03:48 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

Yes we do have life on planet earth. We also happen to be the only blue planet in out solar system that supports life.

And there are perhaps septillions of planets in the universe. 1 septillion inches would be nearly 2,685,000 light years.

Quote:

We know there are billion and billions of planets and million of galaxies like our Milky Way.

Sorry, but billions and billions doesn't even come remotely close. And try 80 to 100 billion galaxies, not millions.

Quote:

So it is a speculation that with such large numbers the probability of life existing among those billions and billions of planets are quite reasonable.

Yes, a reasonable speculation based on empirical evidence

Quote:

That is what the Drake Equation tries to calculate.

Wrong. Sorry, the Drake equation wasn't meant to calculate the number of civilizations in the universe. It was meant to illustrate the effect that the vast number of chances has on the frequency of even highly improbable events. It was meant to show that even if the odds of civilizations arising is extremely small, the number of chances is incomprehensibly large.

Quote:

That is what Carl Sagan used to support his search for ETI.

Yes, he and the other SETI scientists considered the vast scale of the universe as a factor that increases the probability of life evolving throughout the universe.

Quote:

Today after 50 years of SETI. The number of planets scientist think are capable is reduced to a little over hundred tops.

Please cite a source for this claim.

(By the way, commas are your friends.)

Quote:

And even there is could be microbial and not the ETI Carl Sagan envisioned.

Gee, you think microbes (or other simple organisms) will vastly outnumber intelligent, technological life? Image that.

Quote:

Please don`t ask for link. I did not save it.

Did you just learn to use the internet last week? Surely you won't have any difficulty plugging something like "number of worlds capable of supporting life" or "only 100 worlds with life" into a search engine, no?

You didn't just make it up, did you?

Jack by the hedge · 4th December 2012, 03:50 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

It is no help to Sagan. It just shows the picture is not very rosy for people approximating large numbers of finds when it is extremely reduced. The fact NASA has stopped funding SETI should be evidence it is not the preferred way to look for ETI. Nor does Stephen Hawking recommend we look for them. They might not be all that altruistic.

Evasion and illogic. Your can't claim that Sagan made an irrational choice based on information gathered after he died.

Hawking recommends that we do not attempt to contact aliens. He does not say we should not look for them.

StankApe · 4th December 2012, 03:53 PM

Drake Equation and results:

R* = 1/year (1 stars formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
fp = 0.2-0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
ne = 1-5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
fi = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
fc = 0.1-0.2 (10-20% of which will be able to communicate)
L = 1000-100,000,000 years (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years)
Drake states that given the uncertainties, the original meeting concluded that N ≈ L, and there were probably between 1000 and 100,000,000 civilizations in the galaxy.

ETA: apparently the format of the equation itself didn't work in the forums format parameters

John Jones · 4th December 2012, 03:56 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

It is no help to Sagan. It just shows the picture is not very rosy for people approximating large numbers of finds when it is extremely reduced. The fact NASA has stopped funding SETI should be evidence it is not the preferred way to look for ETI. [...].

You have a better way to look for ETI? I'd love to read it.

Foster Zygote · 4th December 2012, 03:56 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

Get another mechanic. Why pay for a total analysis of the problem when all you only want it to have your car fixed and a mechanic who knows how to fix it. I am sure a scientist can also fix your car using his scientific method. How much are you willing to pay him to get it fixed.

Perhaps you are simply a contrarian troll. Maybe you are simply obstreperous and have a psychological need for conflict, and this makes you willing to present arguments that you know are appallingly asinine, because you don't care how it reflects on you as long as you can contradict people.

The alternative would be even sadder.

Slowvehicle · 4th December 2012, 04:01 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

You are one confused person.
I made a statement explaining how the Skeptics accumulated doubts reach a saturation point then panic and fear creeps in.

I then posted a link to show The Role of the Amygdala in Fear and Panic.
The amygdala deals with fear and panic. It is the part of the brain that responds to fear.

What you fail to realize is that you have posted a lie.
You may try to divert the issue to my supposed "confusion" (interesting how anytime someone points out your errors, they are "confused"), but the truth is, right there in black and white, you rode your hobbyhorse about skeptics being ruled by fear into the post, then pretended that you had provided source for your quote.

If they are your words, why did you format them as a quote?
If they are not your words, why did you fail to provide a source?
If the article does not support the quote, why is it there, without provenance, segue, or justification?

Once again, there is no dishonor in admitting a mistake.
There is great dishonor in trying to cover it up, or to divert attention from it, or to lie your way out of it.

SSDD

Slowvehicle · 4th December 2012, 04:03 PM

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim

So, what we've established here isn't that justintime didn't cite his sources properly because he made an honest mistake or didn't know any better, rather that he didn't cite his sources properly because he was attempting to be dishonest about what they actually say. And that his dishonesty didn't work due to the critical thinking of some of the sceptics in this thread.

Welcome to the background radiation of dealing with Justin aka "justintime" aka "justinrapper" aka "jamalrapper"...

smartcooky · 4th December 2012, 04:03 PM

When fifteen different people each try fifteen different ways to explain to something to a person, and that person still does not appear to understand, then one of two possibilities exist;

1. The person does not want to understand

2. The person is too stupid to understand

The essential difference between sceptic and CT;

A sceptic has views and opinions based on available evidence, and if that evidence changes or new evidence is found, the sceptic is prepared to reassess their view in favour of the supporting evidence.

A CT has views based on unbridled speculation and unscientific evidence and no matter how much accurate and verifiable evidence they are presented with that their view is wrong, they will never change it, rather they will first attack the person presenting the evidence and when that fails, they will attack the way the evidence was obtained, and when that fails, they will call the whole of science into question.

justintime · 4th December 2012, 04:04 PM

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

Nonsense. SETI was a project to search for signs of life elsewhere in the universe. Nobody pretended that we could have real time two-way communication with a civilization hundreds of light years away. I'm afraid the irrationality being displayed is not coming from the source you fondly imagine.

The reason they have to go farther into space is because there are no signs of ETI in our neighborhood. And the SETI search is broadbased scanning millions of stars. You read the quote challenging Sagan.

Quote:

Sagan argued that thousands of technically advanced civilizations might be scattered across the galaxy. Some of these societies might be able to communicate with Earth via radio. The back-and-forth messaging might take centuries because of Albert Einstein’s speed limit on electromagnetic waves, but the participants felt the search for such signals was worthwhile anyway.

We will soon be able to see planets 10.5 light years away and even take pictures of it.

Jack by the hedge · 4th December 2012, 04:05 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

Get another mechanic. Why pay for a total analysis of the problem when all you only want it to have your car fixed and a mechanic who knows how to fix it. I am sure a scientist can also fix your car using his scientific method. How much are you willing to pay him to get it fixed.

If you take it to a dealer, you'll get a technician who's been trained to follow a diagnostic procedure which was devised by an engineer using scientific method.

I'm too cheap to go to a dealer so I stick to DIY. I cut out the middle men and go straight to the scientific method and diagnose the fault myself.

John Jones · 4th December 2012, 04:06 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

I have been posting on Skeptic forums for little over a year starting (09/21/11).. I accidentally stumbled on one trying to locate a discussion on phenotypes ( Pink flamingos) to be exact . The link was pointed by someone who turned out to be a troll and I have been trying to rehabilitate him ever since.
I was on Dawkins early 2010. before I discovered the Skeptic forums. I am big on science.

That wasn't the question. You criticized an unnamed poster for " 11,600 post in 3 years."

I asked before, and I ask again: How many posts have you made in the same period of time? Please spare us any dissimulation.

Slowvehicle · 4th December 2012, 04:08 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

Not true. What it shows is someone pointed to climate change skeptics emitting fear signals. I reviewed his analysis and found it could be applied to other areas and sources of fear that Skeptics are exposed to. Someone might come after me and further broaden the scope. This is not an exhaustive list of all the fears Skeptics suffer from.

I challenge you, among the clutter of all of your other pending problems, to give one honest citation of a skeptic's brain (or, for that matter, any human brain--I'm feeling generous) emitting what you call "fear signals". Book, chapter, verse, or admit you made it up.

justintime · 4th December 2012, 04:08 PM

Originally Posted by John Jones

You have a better way to look for ETI? I'd love to read it.

There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy. NASA does not have that capability yet. Sort of if they won`t come to us we just have to go to them.

Resume · 4th December 2012, 04:12 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

At least you don`t have to worry about my analysis.
I first defined the Skeptic and then provided cause for his fears (doubts, uncertainty and insecurity) which built the case for panic and fear. For good measure I even located the seat of fear in the Skeptic brain.

Do you understand the difference between a hypothesis and a bald assertion?

Jack by the hedge · 4th December 2012, 04:14 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

The reason they have to go farther into space is because there are no signs of ETI in our neighborhood. And the SETI search is broadbased scanning millions of stars. You read the quote challenging Sagan.

I read the quote. The idea that it 'challenged' Sagan is entirely in your head. SETI was looking to see if ET was out there, broadcasting. Not to share cake recipes with him.

justintime · 4th December 2012, 04:14 PM

Originally Posted by StankApe

Drake Equation and results:

R* = 1/year (1 stars formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
fp = 0.2-0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
ne = 1-5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
fi = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
fc = 0.1-0.2 (10-20% of which will be able to communicate)
L = 1000-100,000,000 years (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years)
Drake states that given the uncertainties, the original meeting concluded that N ≈ L, and there were probably between 1000 and 100,000,000 civilizations in the galaxy.

ETA: apparently the format of the equation itself didn't work in the forums format parameters

Carl Sagan explains the Drake Equation.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x27...h#.UL6RqIYlD4w

Slowvehicle · 4th December 2012, 04:15 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

At least you don`t have to worry about my analysis.
I first defined the Skeptic and then provided cause for his fears (doubts, uncertainty and insecurity) which built the case for panic and fear. For good measure I even located the seat of fear in the Skeptic brain.

Well, no.

As usual, you attempted to apply your limited definition to a group of thinkers to which you do not (by your own claim) belong...a bit of chutzpah the temerity of which you seem to be blissfully unaware.

The you claimed that group of people to be insecure and motivated by fear--with no support other than your own opinion. An opinion that sits poorly with your need to resort to calumny, attempted insult, and attempted character assassination rather than addressing issues.

Then you presented your unsupported opinion as if it were a quote form an article.

The article you presented said nothing about skeptic's brains, dealing instead with fear in the brains of conditioned laboratory rats.

Wrong 4 times.

Foster Zygote · 4th December 2012, 04:16 PM

Originally Posted by John Jones

That wasn't the question. You criticized an unnamed poster for " 11,600 post in 3 years."

I asked before, and I ask again: How many posts have you made in the same period of time? Please spare us any dissimulation.

Thats around 10.5 post per day. What a madman!

Of course, justintime started posting around 33 hours ago and is up to 59 posts as I type this. Even if he stopped now he'd have an average of 43 posts per day.

justintime · 4th December 2012, 04:17 PM

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

I read the quote. The idea that it 'challenged' Sagan is entirely in your head. SETI was looking to see if ET was out there, broadcasting. Not to share cake recipes with him.

SETI was a project to setup radio communication with ETI. Only Skeptics are known for their one way communication.

John Jones · 4th December 2012, 04:21 PM

Quote:

I first defined the Skeptic and then provided cause for his fears (doubts, uncertainty and insecurity) which built the case for panic and fear

The classic Straw Man argument.

Slowvehicle · 4th December 2012, 04:21 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

SETI was a project to setup radio communication with ETI. Only Skeptics are known for their one way communication.

Yes. Everything I have said to you, and others have said to you, on multiple fora has, in its effect, been one-way communication. Not that I won't keep trying.

Jack by the hedge · 4th December 2012, 04:22 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy. NASA does not have that capability yet. Sort of if they won`t come to us we just have to go to them.

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. I'm sorry to be so blunt, but quite seriously this is so many orders of magnitude removed from anything approaching reality that I stand frankly amazed.

The pinnacle of man-made long distance travel has now, after 3½ decades, reached the edge of our solar system. Having jumped that puddle, the next closest star is an ocean away. The edge of our galaxy, mere fantasy.

Jack by the hedge · 4th December 2012, 04:27 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

SETI was a project to setup radio communication with ETI. Only Skeptics are known for their one way communication.

SETI was the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. The clue was in the name. If useful information is only flowing one way in this conversation, that is not our fault.

AdMan · 4th December 2012, 04:31 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy.

You post such idiocy seriously and pretend you are capable of saying anything remotely intelligent about Carl Sagan?

justintime · 4th December 2012, 04:34 PM

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. I'm sorry to be so blunt, but quite seriously this is so many orders of magnitude removed from anything approaching reality that I stand frankly amazed.

The pinnacle of man-made long distance travel has now, after 3½ decades, reached the edge of our solar system. Having jumped that puddle, the next closest star is an ocean away. The edge of our galaxy, mere fantasy.

You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way.

AdMan · 4th December 2012, 04:38 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way.

I would stop digging, if I were you.

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

StankApe · 4th December 2012, 04:43 PM

I post wayyy too much, but I'm unemployed right now and have nothing better to do but complete job apps online and peruse the baseball hot stove updates... oh and post here!

Jack by the hedge · 4th December 2012, 04:44 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way.

I can assure you I would not forget anything like that.

30 thousand light years to the edge of the Milky Way.

Well over 2 million light years to the next nearest galaxy (if I recall correctly).

Better pack extra sandwiches.

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

StankApe · 4th December 2012, 04:49 PM

I think they do the scientific method in mathematics as well:

confront problem, form hypothesis of equation to solve problem, test hypothesis by completing equation, analyze results to see why the answer does or does not solve the problem.

so neener

smartcooky · 4th December 2012, 04:49 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy. NASA does not have that capability yet. Sort of if they won`t come to us we just have to go to them.

OK Sybok. Let us know when you have found Shaka-ri

StankApe · 4th December 2012, 04:53 PM

the NEXT generation of rockets?

more like the 475,000th next generation of rockets.

John Jones · 4th December 2012, 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy. NASA does not have that capability yet. Sort of if they won`t come to us we just have to go to them.

Let's see these plans. Put up or shut up, as they say.

StankApe · 4th December 2012, 05:01 PM

Perhaps the plans were stolen by a princess?

Jack by the hedge · 4th December 2012, 05:04 PM

Originally Posted by StankApe

Perhaps the plans were stolen by a princess?

The dog ate them.

John Jones · 4th December 2012, 05:06 PM

I've got a bad toothache myself, but still.

One ought to be held to some minimal standard of evidence if they want to make straw man arguments against Carl Sagan, skepticism, and science as a whole.

Spindrift · 4th December 2012, 05:07 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way.

How does one get to those launching pads?

StankApe · 4th December 2012, 05:10 PM

I would like to thank the OP as I had never read The Demon Haunted World (cuz I'm an idiot and never got around to it) but this thread inspired me to get 6 of his books for my Nook and I will be enjoying them over the next few weeks!

John Jones · 4th December 2012, 05:10 PM

Originally Posted by justintime

You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way.

After this post^^^, there can no longer be any doubt that you are clueless.

StankApe · 4th December 2012, 05:11 PM

Originally Posted by Spindrift

How does one get to those launching pads?

I would imagine that these launch pads would have to be very large indeed to shoot such a vast and advanced rocket into space.

one could even say that they would have to be Maxi Pads

AdMan · 4th December 2012, 05:16 PM

Originally Posted by John Jones

Originally Posted by justintime

You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way.

After this post^^^, there can be no longer be any doubt that you are clueless.

And that nobody should take seriously anything that someone that ignorant posts on Carl Sagan, of all people.

4th December 2012, 03:48 PM	#361
Foster Zygote Dental Floss Tycoon Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge Posts: 14,459	Originally Posted by justintime Yes we do have life on planet earth. We also happen to be the only blue planet in out solar system that supports life. And there are perhaps septillions of planets in the universe. 1 septillion inches would be nearly 2,685,000 light years. Quote: We know there are billion and billions of planets and million of galaxies like our Milky Way. Sorry, but billions and billions doesn't even come remotely close. And try 80 to 100 billion galaxies, not millions. Quote: So it is a speculation that with such large numbers the probability of life existing among those billions and billions of planets are quite reasonable. Yes, a reasonable speculation based on empirical evidence Quote: That is what the Drake Equation tries to calculate. Wrong. Sorry, the Drake equation wasn't meant to calculate the number of civilizations in the universe. It was meant to illustrate the effect that the vast number of chances has on the frequency of even highly improbable events. It was meant to show that even if the odds of civilizations arising is extremely small, the number of chances is incomprehensibly large. Quote: That is what Carl Sagan used to support his search for ETI. Yes, he and the other SETI scientists considered the vast scale of the universe as a factor that increases the probability of life evolving throughout the universe. Quote: Today after 50 years of SETI. The number of planets scientist think are capable is reduced to a little over hundred tops. Please cite a source for this claim. (By the way, commas are your friends.) Quote: And even there is could be microbial and not the ETI Carl Sagan envisioned. Gee, you think microbes (or other simple organisms) will vastly outnumber intelligent, technological life? Image that. Quote: Please don`t ask for link. I did not save it. Did you just learn to use the internet last week? Surely you won't have any difficulty plugging something like "number of worlds capable of supporting life" or "only 100 worlds with life" into a search engine, no? You didn't just make it up, did you?
	__________________ It looks just like a Telefunken U47... You'll love it.

4th December 2012, 03:53 PM	#363
StankApe Banned Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,643	Drake Equation and results: R* = 1/year (1 stars formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative) fp = 0.2-0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets) ne = 1-5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life) fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life) fi = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life) fc = 0.1-0.2 (10-20% of which will be able to communicate) L = 1000-100,000,000 years (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years) Drake states that given the uncertainties, the original meeting concluded that N ≈ L, and there were probably between 1000 and 100,000,000 civilizations in the galaxy. ETA: apparently the format of the equation itself didn't work in the forums format parameters
StankApe Banned Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,643	Last edited by StankApe; 4th December 2012 at 03:55 PM.

4th December 2012, 03:56 PM	#364
John Jones Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 3,827	Originally Posted by justintime It is no help to Sagan. It just shows the picture is not very rosy for people approximating large numbers of finds when it is extremely reduced. The fact NASA has stopped funding SETI should be evidence it is not the preferred way to look for ETI. [...]. You have a better way to look for ETI? I'd love to read it.
John Jones Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 3,827

4th December 2012, 03:56 PM	#365
Foster Zygote Dental Floss Tycoon Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge Posts: 14,459	Originally Posted by justintime Get another mechanic. Why pay for a total analysis of the problem when all you only want it to have your car fixed and a mechanic who knows how to fix it. I am sure a scientist can also fix your car using his scientific method. How much are you willing to pay him to get it fixed. Perhaps you are simply a contrarian troll. Maybe you are simply obstreperous and have a psychological need for conflict, and this makes you willing to present arguments that you know are appallingly asinine, because you don't care how it reflects on you as long as you can contradict people. The alternative would be even sadder.
	__________________ It looks just like a Telefunken U47... You'll love it.

4th December 2012, 04:01 PM	#366
Slowvehicle Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2012 Location: ...not where I seemed, nor was calculated to be...but no-one need worry... Posts: 2,359	Originally Posted by justintime You are one confused person. I made a statement explaining how the Skeptics accumulated doubts reach a saturation point then panic and fear creeps in. I then posted a link to show The Role of the Amygdala in Fear and Panic. The amygdala deals with fear and panic. It is the part of the brain that responds to fear. What you fail to realize is that you have posted a lie. You may try to divert the issue to my supposed "confusion" (interesting how anytime someone points out your errors, they are "confused"), but the truth is, right there in black and white, you rode your hobbyhorse about skeptics being ruled by fear into the post, then pretended that you had provided source for your quote. If they are your words, why did you format them as a quote? If they are not your words, why did you fail to provide a source? If the article does not support the quote, why is it there, without provenance, segue, or justification? Once again, there is no dishonor in admitting a mistake. There is great dishonor in trying to cover it up, or to divert attention from it, or to lie your way out of it. SSDD
	__________________ "Science is a wall against which we crash all of our ideas. The ones that survive are the ones we keep, but they are still subjected to periodic crash tests." -Foster Zygote "And in science the default is that you're wrong. EVERYONE is wrong. You only can be not wrong if you have evidence to back up your claim." -Dinwar "That is not my circus; those are not my monkeys." -Howard Tayler Last edited by Slowvehicle; 4th December 2012 at 04:25 PM.

4th December 2012, 03:50 PM	#362
Jack by the hedge Safely Ignored Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 5,507	Originally Posted by justintime It is no help to Sagan. It just shows the picture is not very rosy for people approximating large numbers of finds when it is extremely reduced. The fact NASA has stopped funding SETI should be evidence it is not the preferred way to look for ETI. Nor does Stephen Hawking recommend we look for them. They might not be all that altruistic. Evasion and illogic. Your can't claim that Sagan made an irrational choice based on information gathered after he died. Hawking recommends that we do not attempt to contact aliens. He does not say we should not look for them.

4th December 2012, 04:03 PM	#367
Slowvehicle Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2012 Location: ...not where I seemed, nor was calculated to be...but no-one need worry... Posts: 2,359	Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim So, what we've established here isn't that justintime didn't cite his sources properly because he made an honest mistake or didn't know any better, rather that he didn't cite his sources properly because he was attempting to be dishonest about what they actually say. And that his dishonesty didn't work due to the critical thinking of some of the sceptics in this thread. Welcome to the background radiation of dealing with Justin aka "justintime" aka "justinrapper" aka "jamalrapper"...
	__________________ "Science is a wall against which we crash all of our ideas. The ones that survive are the ones we keep, but they are still subjected to periodic crash tests." -Foster Zygote "And in science the default is that you're wrong. EVERYONE is wrong. You only can be not wrong if you have evidence to back up your claim." -Dinwar "That is not my circus; those are not my monkeys." -Howard Tayler

4th December 2012, 04:03 PM	#368
smartcooky Graduate Poster Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Nelson, New Zealand Posts: 1,004	When fifteen different people each try fifteen different ways to explain to something to a person, and that person still does not appear to understand, then one of two possibilities exist; 1. The person does not want to understand 2. The person is too stupid to understand The essential difference between sceptic and CT; A sceptic has views and opinions based on available evidence, and if that evidence changes or new evidence is found, the sceptic is prepared to reassess their view in favour of the supporting evidence. A CT has views based on unbridled speculation and unscientific evidence and no matter how much accurate and verifiable evidence they are presented with that their view is wrong, they will never change it, rather they will first attack the person presenting the evidence and when that fails, they will attack the way the evidence was obtained, and when that fails, they will call the whole of science into question.
	__________________ _{OCCAMS Razor 9/11 was a terrorist attack by Muslim extremists who were organised by Osama Bin Laden. The Apollo astronauts walked on the Moon JFK was assassinated by a single gunmen, Lee Harvey Oswald, who acted alone}

4th December 2012, 04:04 PM	#369
justintime Suspended Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 756	Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge Nonsense. SETI was a project to search for signs of life elsewhere in the universe. Nobody pretended that we could have real time two-way communication with a civilization hundreds of light years away. I'm afraid the irrationality being displayed is not coming from the source you fondly imagine. The reason they have to go farther into space is because there are no signs of ETI in our neighborhood. And the SETI search is broadbased scanning millions of stars. You read the quote challenging Sagan. Quote: Sagan argued that thousands of technically advanced civilizations might be scattered across the galaxy. Some of these societies might be able to communicate with Earth via radio. The back-and-forth messaging might take centuries because of Albert Einstein’s speed limit on electromagnetic waves, but the participants felt the search for such signals was worthwhile anyway. We will soon be able to see planets 10.5 light years away and even take pictures of it.
justintime Suspended Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 756

4th December 2012, 04:05 PM	#370
Jack by the hedge Safely Ignored Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 5,507	Originally Posted by justintime Get another mechanic. Why pay for a total analysis of the problem when all you only want it to have your car fixed and a mechanic who knows how to fix it. I am sure a scientist can also fix your car using his scientific method. How much are you willing to pay him to get it fixed. If you take it to a dealer, you'll get a technician who's been trained to follow a diagnostic procedure which was devised by an engineer using scientific method. I'm too cheap to go to a dealer so I stick to DIY. I cut out the middle men and go straight to the scientific method and diagnose the fault myself.

4th December 2012, 04:06 PM	#371
John Jones Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 3,827	Originally Posted by justintime I have been posting on Skeptic forums for little over a year starting (09/21/11).. I accidentally stumbled on one trying to locate a discussion on phenotypes ( Pink flamingos) to be exact . The link was pointed by someone who turned out to be a troll and I have been trying to rehabilitate him ever since. I was on Dawkins early 2010. before I discovered the Skeptic forums. I am big on science. That wasn't the question. You criticized an unnamed poster for " 11,600 post in 3 years." I asked before, and I ask again: How many posts have you made in the same period of time? Please spare us any dissimulation.
John Jones Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 3,827

4th December 2012, 04:08 PM	#372
Slowvehicle Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2012 Location: ...not where I seemed, nor was calculated to be...but no-one need worry... Posts: 2,359	Originally Posted by justintime Not true. What it shows is someone pointed to climate change skeptics emitting fear signals. I reviewed his analysis and found it could be applied to other areas and sources of fear that Skeptics are exposed to. Someone might come after me and further broaden the scope. This is not an exhaustive list of all the fears Skeptics suffer from. I challenge you, among the clutter of all of your other pending problems, to give one honest citation of a skeptic's brain (or, for that matter, any human brain--I'm feeling generous) emitting what you call "fear signals". Book, chapter, verse, or admit you made it up.
	__________________ "Science is a wall against which we crash all of our ideas. The ones that survive are the ones we keep, but they are still subjected to periodic crash tests." -Foster Zygote "And in science the default is that you're wrong. EVERYONE is wrong. You only can be not wrong if you have evidence to back up your claim." -Dinwar "That is not my circus; those are not my monkeys." -Howard Tayler

4th December 2012, 04:08 PM	#373
justintime Suspended Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 756	Originally Posted by John Jones You have a better way to look for ETI? I'd love to read it. There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy. NASA does not have that capability yet. Sort of if they won`t come to us we just have to go to them.
justintime Suspended Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 756

4th December 2012, 04:12 PM	#374
Resume Philosopher Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 8,135	Originally Posted by justintime At least you don`t have to worry about my analysis. I first defined the Skeptic and then provided cause for his fears (doubts, uncertainty and insecurity) which built the case for panic and fear. For good measure I even located the seat of fear in the Skeptic brain. Do you understand the difference between a hypothesis and a bald assertion?
Resume Philosopher Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 8,135

4th December 2012, 04:14 PM	#375
Jack by the hedge Safely Ignored Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 5,507	Originally Posted by justintime The reason they have to go farther into space is because there are no signs of ETI in our neighborhood. And the SETI search is broadbased scanning millions of stars. You read the quote challenging Sagan. I read the quote. The idea that it 'challenged' Sagan is entirely in your head. SETI was looking to see if ET was out there, broadcasting. Not to share cake recipes with him.

4th December 2012, 04:14 PM	#376
justintime Suspended Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 756	Originally Posted by StankApe Drake Equation and results: R* = 1/year (1 stars formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative) fp = 0.2-0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets) ne = 1-5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life) fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life) fi = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life) fc = 0.1-0.2 (10-20% of which will be able to communicate) L = 1000-100,000,000 years (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years) Drake states that given the uncertainties, the original meeting concluded that N ≈ L, and there were probably between 1000 and 100,000,000 civilizations in the galaxy. ETA: apparently the format of the equation itself didn't work in the forums format parameters Carl Sagan explains the Drake Equation. http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x27...h#.UL6RqIYlD4w
justintime Suspended Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 756

4th December 2012, 04:15 PM	#377
Slowvehicle Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2012 Location: ...not where I seemed, nor was calculated to be...but no-one need worry... Posts: 2,359	Originally Posted by justintime At least you don`t have to worry about my analysis. I first defined the Skeptic and then provided cause for his fears (doubts, uncertainty and insecurity) which built the case for panic and fear. For good measure I even located the seat of fear in the Skeptic brain. Well, no. As usual, you attempted to apply your limited definition to a group of thinkers to which you do not (by your own claim) belong...a bit of chutzpah the temerity of which you seem to be blissfully unaware. The you claimed that group of people to be insecure and motivated by fear--with no support other than your own opinion. An opinion that sits poorly with your need to resort to calumny, attempted insult, and attempted character assassination rather than addressing issues. Then you presented your unsupported opinion as if it were a quote form an article. The article you presented said nothing about skeptic's brains, dealing instead with fear in the brains of conditioned laboratory rats. Wrong 4 times.
	__________________ "Science is a wall against which we crash all of our ideas. The ones that survive are the ones we keep, but they are still subjected to periodic crash tests." -Foster Zygote "And in science the default is that you're wrong. EVERYONE is wrong. You only can be not wrong if you have evidence to back up your claim." -Dinwar "That is not my circus; those are not my monkeys." -Howard Tayler

4th December 2012, 04:16 PM	#378
Foster Zygote Dental Floss Tycoon Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge Posts: 14,459	Originally Posted by John Jones That wasn't the question. You criticized an unnamed poster for " 11,600 post in 3 years." I asked before, and I ask again: How many posts have you made in the same period of time? Please spare us any dissimulation. Thats around 10.5 post per day. What a madman! Of course, justintime started posting around 33 hours ago and is up to 59 posts as I type this. Even if he stopped now he'd have an average of 43 posts per day.
	__________________ It looks just like a Telefunken U47... You'll love it.

4th December 2012, 04:17 PM	#379
justintime Suspended Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 756	Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge I read the quote. The idea that it 'challenged' Sagan is entirely in your head. SETI was looking to see if ET was out there, broadcasting. Not to share cake recipes with him. SETI was a project to setup radio communication with ETI. Only Skeptics are known for their one way communication.
justintime Suspended Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 756

4th December 2012, 04:21 PM	#380
John Jones Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 3,827	Quote: I first defined the Skeptic and then provided cause for his fears (doubts, uncertainty and insecurity) which built the case for panic and fear The classic Straw Man argument.
John Jones Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 3,827

4th December 2012, 04:21 PM	#381
Slowvehicle Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2012 Location: ...not where I seemed, nor was calculated to be...but no-one need worry... Posts: 2,359	Originally Posted by justintime SETI was a project to setup radio communication with ETI. Only Skeptics are known for their one way communication. Yes. Everything I have said to you, and others have said to you, on multiple fora has, in its effect, been one-way communication. Not that I won't keep trying.
	__________________ "Science is a wall against which we crash all of our ideas. The ones that survive are the ones we keep, but they are still subjected to periodic crash tests." -Foster Zygote "And in science the default is that you're wrong. EVERYONE is wrong. You only can be not wrong if you have evidence to back up your claim." -Dinwar "That is not my circus; those are not my monkeys." -Howard Tayler

4th December 2012, 04:22 PM	#382
Jack by the hedge Safely Ignored Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 5,507	Originally Posted by justintime There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy. NASA does not have that capability yet. Sort of if they won`t come to us we just have to go to them. You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. I'm sorry to be so blunt, but quite seriously this is so many orders of magnitude removed from anything approaching reality that I stand frankly amazed. The pinnacle of man-made long distance travel has now, after 3½ decades, reached the edge of our solar system. Having jumped that puddle, the next closest star is an ocean away. The edge of our galaxy, mere fantasy.

4th December 2012, 04:27 PM	#383
Jack by the hedge Safely Ignored Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 5,507	Originally Posted by justintime SETI was a project to setup radio communication with ETI. Only Skeptics are known for their one way communication. SETI was the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. The clue was in the name. If useful information is only flowing one way in this conversation, that is not our fault.

4th December 2012, 04:31 PM	#384
AdMan Philosopher Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 7,343	Originally Posted by justintime There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy. You post such idiocy seriously and pretend you are capable of saying anything remotely intelligent about Carl Sagan?
AdMan Philosopher Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 7,343	__________________ It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan

4th December 2012, 04:34 PM	#385
justintime Suspended Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 756	Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. I'm sorry to be so blunt, but quite seriously this is so many orders of magnitude removed from anything approaching reality that I stand frankly amazed. The pinnacle of man-made long distance travel has now, after 3½ decades, reached the edge of our solar system. Having jumped that puddle, the next closest star is an ocean away. The edge of our galaxy, mere fantasy. You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way.
justintime Suspended Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 756

4th December 2012, 04:38 PM	#386
AdMan Philosopher Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 7,343	Originally Posted by justintime You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way. I would stop digging, if I were you. You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.
AdMan Philosopher Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 7,343	__________________ It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan

4th December 2012, 04:43 PM	#387
StankApe Banned Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,643	I post wayyy too much, but I'm unemployed right now and have nothing better to do but complete job apps online and peruse the baseball hot stove updates... oh and post here!
StankApe Banned Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,643

4th December 2012, 04:44 PM	#388
Jack by the hedge Safely Ignored Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 5,507	Originally Posted by justintime You forget. The long range rockets combined with launching pad based on distant planets will enable us to get beyond our Milky Way. I can assure you I would not forget anything like that. 30 thousand light years to the edge of the Milky Way. Well over 2 million light years to the next nearest galaxy (if I recall correctly). Better pack extra sandwiches. You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

4th December 2012, 04:49 PM	#389
StankApe Banned Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,643	I think they do the scientific method in mathematics as well: confront problem, form hypothesis of equation to solve problem, test hypothesis by completing equation, analyze results to see why the answer does or does not solve the problem. so neener
StankApe Banned Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,643

4th December 2012, 04:49 PM	#390
smartcooky Graduate Poster Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Nelson, New Zealand Posts: 1,004	Originally Posted by justintime There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy. NASA does not have that capability yet. Sort of if they won`t come to us we just have to go to them. OK Sybok. Let us know when you have found Shaka-ri
	__________________ _{OCCAMS Razor 9/11 was a terrorist attack by Muslim extremists who were organised by Osama Bin Laden. The Apollo astronauts walked on the Moon JFK was assassinated by a single gunmen, Lee Harvey Oswald, who acted alone}

4th December 2012, 04:53 PM	#391
StankApe Banned Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,643	the NEXT generation of rockets? more like the 475,000th next generation of rockets.
StankApe Banned Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,643

4th December 2012, 04:56 PM	#392
John Jones Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 3,827	Originally Posted by justintime There are plans to build the next generation of rockets that will push us past our own galaxy. NASA does not have that capability yet. Sort of if they won`t come to us we just have to go to them. Let's see these plans. Put up or shut up, as they say.
John Jones Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 3,827

4th December 2012, 05:01 PM	#393
StankApe Banned Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,643	Perhaps the plans were stolen by a princess?
StankApe Banned Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 4,643

4th December 2012, 05:04 PM	#394
Jack by the hedge Safely Ignored Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 5,507	Originally Posted by StankApe Perhaps the plans were stolen by a princess? The dog ate them.

4th December 2012, 05:06 PM	#395
John Jones Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 3,827	I've got a bad toothache myself, but still. One ought to be held to some minimal standard of evidence if they want to make straw man arguments against Carl Sagan, skepticism, and science as a whole.
John Jones Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 3,827