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Old 7th January 2013, 03:02 AM   #1
bit_pattern
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The New Normal: 2013 Aus Heatwave Unprecedented

Watch the records tumble as our cliamte on steroids becomes the new normal. Australia is going to become a very unpleasant place to live over coming decades



Via Stephan Lewandowsky who writes:
Never before in recorded history has Australia experienced 5 consecutive days of national-average maximum temperatures above 39C. Until today.

And this heat is expected to continue for another 24-48 hours, extending the new record run to 6 or even 7 days.

For context, the previous record of 4 days occurred once only (1973) and 3 days has occurred only twice (1972,2002).

This information is from within the Bureau and reliable but it has not been released to the public yet–but feel free to spread.

I have enclosed a temperature map that may be of interest.
Although the generally cooler island of Tasmania has escaped the most extreme heat, it has not escaped the consequences of the heat wave.
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Old 7th January 2013, 07:12 AM   #2
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Those interior temps are just frightening!

What's it like over in Kiwiland? As a northern hemisphere snob, I really haven't kept up with how things are going on the other side of the globe, but I really should.
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Old 7th January 2013, 04:47 PM   #3
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There is a once-per-century high, and you have been keeping track for 10 years, new highs are not out of the norm. The OP didn't specify how long the record go back. A new high in a fifty year book is meaningless. It may be the same old normal, NOT a new normal. Anecdote.
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Old 7th January 2013, 05:19 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
There is a once-per-century high, and you have been keeping track for 10 years, new highs are not out of the norm. The OP didn't specify how long the record go back. A new high in a fifty year book is meaningless. It may be the same old normal, NOT a new normal. Anecdote.
One record high may well be anecdotal as are individual record lows, so it is neccesary to compare the two as was done in a study in 2009 in which it was found that there were twice as many record highs as lows in the US in the 2000-2009 period

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news...lows-across-us
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Old 7th January 2013, 07:02 PM   #5
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BOM has had to add a new colour to their chart

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Old 7th January 2013, 07:10 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by bobwtfomg View Post
One record high may well be anecdotal as are individual record lows, so it is neccesary to compare the two as was done in a study in 2009 in which it was found that there were twice as many record highs as lows in the US in the 2000-2009 period
Why would anybody expect record lows during the high point of a centennial cycle?

I bet if you went to the low point of the cycle, you'd find a large number of record lows, few record highs, and at least one person insisting this meant we were on the verge of a nonstop cooling trend.
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Old 7th January 2013, 07:51 PM   #7
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If you look at the trend series on the BOM site over 100 years you'll see a steady change over time and it is NOT cooling. But whatever turns your crank denying the obvious.


Quote:
Author

1.
Sunanda Creagh

Editor, The Conversation

Interviewed

1.
David Jones

Head of Climate Monitoring and Prediction Services at Australian Bureau of Meteorology
2.
Jason Sharples

Lecturer, School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences at University of New South Wales

The Conversation provides independent analysis and commentary from academics and researchers.

We are funded by CSIRO, Melbourne, Monash, RMIT, UTS, UWA, Canberra, CDU, Deakin, Flinders, Griffith, La Trobe, Murdoch, QUT, Swinburne, UniSA, USQ, UTAS, UWS and VU.
46r3v2kk-1357603991 A total fire ban is in place across NSW and the ACT as temperatures soar. AAP Image/Twitter

Heatwaves like the one sweeping Australia today will become more common as the globe warms, with record high temperatures already outpacing record lows by a ratio of three to one, experts said today.

Temperatures are expected to climb past 40 degrees celsius across the country today, with authorities warning of extreme bushfire risk in NSW. Over 90 bushfires had broken out across that state by early this morning, the NSW Rural Fire Service said.

Australia had experienced six days in a row of average temperatures above 39 degrees and another two days were expected, the Bureau of Meteorology said. The previous long run of such high average temperatures was four days, set in 1973.

A long dry spell in inland Australia, fewer cold fronts and the delayed onset of the monsoon in the country’s north had helped create today’s conditions but “the other thing at play here is climate change,” said Dr David Jones, Head of Climate Monitoring and Prediction Services at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

“We know that inland Australia is a degree and a half hotter than it was 50 to 100 years ago. Every single day we have this background warming trend which effectively means the whole climate system operates on a higher base,” he said.

“If you look at maximum temperatures, we are now finding that the rate at which we get record high temperatures is three times faster than the rate at which we get record low temperature.”

In other words, he said, “for every record cold day we see, we get three record hot days.”

“The climate system is really strongly weighted over Australia now towards record heat… that’s quite a profound shift.”

Dr Jones said Australia “was now seeing record hot nights five times more frequently than record cold nights.”

The Bureau of Meteorology released a Special Climate Statement yesterday saying that for the last four months of 2012, “the average Australian maximum temperature was the highest on record with a national anomaly of +1.61 degrees celsius, slightly ahead of the previous record of 1.60 degrees celsius set in 2002 (national records go back to 1910).
http://theconversation.edu.au/as-cli...e-to-one-11491

Last edited by macdoc; 7th January 2013 at 08:02 PM.
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Old 7th January 2013, 09:01 PM   #8
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And it's still early winter...imagine how hot it will be during the summer!


39 degrees? Our LOW was 44 degrees today in Los Angeles.
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Old 7th January 2013, 09:09 PM   #9
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It's a good thing we have a gold plated electricity network. Otherwise our air conditioning might be rationed.
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Old 7th January 2013, 09:10 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by ThunderChunky View Post
39 degrees? Our LOW was 44 degrees today in Los Angeles.
Celsius or Fahrenheit?
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Old 7th January 2013, 09:43 PM   #11
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Off the charts now 54 degrees !!!!!! That 129.2 for the Yanks viewing.

Quote:
The range now extends to 54 degrees – well above the all-time record temperature of 50.7 degrees reached on January 2, 1960 at Oodnadatta Airport in South Australia – and, perhaps worringly, the forecast outlook is starting to deploy the new colours.

"The scale has just been increased today and I would anticipate it is because the forecast coming from the bureau's model is showing temperatures in excess of 50 degrees," David Jones, head of the bureau's climate monitoring and prediction unit, said.

While recent days have seen Australian temperature maps displaying maximums ranging from 40 degrees to 48 degrees - depicted in the colour scheme as burnt orange to black – both Sunday and Monday are now showing regions likely to hit 50 degrees or more, coloured purple.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/environment...#ixzz2HMMbfLiQ

Last edited by macdoc; 7th January 2013 at 09:45 PM.
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Old 7th January 2013, 10:08 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It's a good thing we have a gold plated electricity network. Otherwise our air conditioning might be rationed.
Every $1500 air-conditioner sold costs everybody else $7000 in network costs - it's amuses me to hear someone who thinks governments going into debt are treasonous advocating for such profligacy
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Old 7th January 2013, 10:10 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by macdoc View Post
Off the charts now 54 degrees !!!!!! That 129.2 for the Yanks viewing.


http://i106.photobucket.com/albums/m...er-620x349.jpg
http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php...14&postcount=5

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Old 7th January 2013, 10:24 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by bit_pattern View Post
Every $1500 air-conditioner sold costs everybody else $7000 in network costs - it's amuses me to hear someone who thinks governments going into debt are treasonous advocating for such profligacy
Typical vertical thinking. Everything must be financed by debt.
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Old 7th January 2013, 10:54 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by bit_pattern View Post
BOM has had to add a new colour to their chart

http://forums.randi.org/picture.php?...pictureid=7204
Bloody hell, that's a real worry.
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Old 7th January 2013, 11:07 PM   #16
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That's just stunning - glad I'm heading to Cairns next week and not further south....which seems a very odd thing...

That chart bears repeating

Last edited by macdoc; 7th January 2013 at 11:11 PM.
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Old 7th January 2013, 11:13 PM   #17
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Yesterday in Perth was horrid, had 32 Celsius at 2am. :/

Today another 40c high and ridiculous humidity, but the cool change down to 30c is coming tomorrow.

The temp isn't as bad as the humidity here, normally we get fairly dry heat here and the Freo Doctor takes away the worst at night. Not at the moment though.
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Old 8th January 2013, 02:47 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Why would anybody expect record lows during the high point of a centennial cycle?

I bet if you went to the low point of the cycle, you'd find a large number of record lows, few record highs, and at least one person insisting this meant we were on the verge of a nonstop cooling trend.
Centennial cycle???

Got any science to back that up?

Or are you one of those "skeptics" who is actually only skeptical of mainstream consensus science but accepts unskeptically any fringe/pseudoscience claims that confirm your own biases?
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Old 8th January 2013, 03:14 AM   #19
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Thumbs up

Originally Posted by bobwtfomg View Post
Centennial cycle???

Got any science to back that up?

Or are you one of those "skeptics" who is actually only skeptical of mainstream consensus science but accepts unskeptically any fringe/pseudoscience claims that confirm your own biases?
Yeah right on!

This is a MASSIVELY anomalous event and it won;t end until the end of the week at the bare minimum but even then BOM models give it a chance of lasting WEEKS.

BOM's latest statement:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/curren...nts/scs43a.pdf
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Old 8th January 2013, 03:38 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by bit_pattern View Post
Yeah right on!

This is a MASSIVELY anomalous event and it won;t end until the end of the week at the bare minimum but even then BOM models give it a chance of lasting WEEKS.

BOM's latest statement:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/curren...nts/scs43a.pdf
42C at Portland!

Portland is on the south east Victorian coast, and the sort of place where people go to escape the extreme heat! It is customarily 10C + lower than Melbourne.
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Old 8th January 2013, 05:46 AM   #21
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i dislike this event hunting. whenever there are events that might be a partial result do to AGW, some jump up and yell, look thats AGW.
the deniers do the same, whenever there is a cold wave they jump up and say ha, AGW is falsified.
i think this is very unscientific on both sides. and especially as we have the science on our side, we do not need this event hunting. it makes us prone to misstakes, which then gives amunition to the deniers.
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Old 8th January 2013, 05:50 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by DC View Post
i dislike this event hunting. whenever there are events that might be a partial result do to AGW, some jump up and yell, look thats AGW.
the deniers do the same, whenever there is a cold wave they jump up and say ha, AGW is falsified.
i think this is very unscientific on both sides. and especially as we have the science on our side, we do not need this event hunting. it makes us prone to misstakes, which then gives amunition to the deniers.
Events like this are hard to ignore.
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Old 8th January 2013, 05:58 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by DC View Post
i dislike this event hunting. whenever there are events that might be a partial result do to AGW, some jump up and yell, look thats AGW.
the deniers do the same, whenever there is a cold wave they jump up and say ha, AGW is falsified.
i think this is very unscientific on both sides. and especially as we have the science on our side, we do not need this event hunting. it makes us prone to misstakes, which then gives amunition to the deniers.
Soz but when it comes to this I'm inclined to go with the experts

Quote:
THE heatwave that has scorched the nation since Christmas is a taste of things to come, with this week’s records set to tumble again and again in the coming years, climate scientists said.

The hottest average maximum temperature ever recorded across Australia – 40.33 degrees, set on Monday – may only stand for 24 hours and be eclipsed when all of Tuesday’s readings come in. Previously, that record had stood since December 21, 1972.

‘‘The current heatwave – in terms of its duration, its intensity and its extent – is now unprecedented in our records,’’ the Bureau of Meteorology’s manager of climate monitoring and prediction, David Jones, said.

‘‘Clearly, the climate system is responding to the background warming trend. Everything that happens in the climate system now is taking place on a planet which is a degree hotter than it used to be.’’

As the warming trend increases over coming years, record-breaking heat will become more and more common, Dr Jones said.

‘‘We know that global climate doesn’t respond monotonically – it does go up and down with natural variation. That’s why some years are hotter than others because of a range of factors. But we’re getting many more hot records than we’re getting cold records. That’s not an issue that is explained away by natural variation.’’

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/environment...#ixzz2HONlARNL
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:00 AM   #24
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The record high for Death Valley's Furnace Creek Station is 57C set in 1913.

From Wiki:

Quote:
The hottest air temperature ever recorded in Death Valley was 134 °F (57 °C) on July 10, 1913, at Furnace Creek,[4] which is currently the hottest temperature ever recorded in the world.[4] During the heat wave that peaked with that record, five consecutive days reached 129 °F (54 °C) or above.

The greatest number of consecutive days with a maximum temperature of 100 °F (38 °C) or above was 154 days in the summer of 2001. The summer of 1996 had 40 days over 120 °F (49 °C), and 105 days over 110 °F (43 °C). The summer of 1917 had 52 days where temperatures reached 120 °F (49 °C) or above with 43 of them consecutive.
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:12 AM   #25
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Question

Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
The record high for Death Valley's Furnace Creek Station is 57C set in 1913.

From Wiki:
What's your point exactly?
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:21 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by bit_pattern View Post
What's your point exactly?
We have heatwaves in places at times. And cold waves.

As does the earth.

The earth isn't supposed to stay at the same average temperature for long periods of time as far as I know.

Not sure why we seem to expect it to these days, but there's no doubt that a lot of people expect it to and a lot of people want to "do something".

I'm hoping for another Krakatau.
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:27 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
We have heatwaves in places at times. And cold waves.

As does the earth.

The earth isn't supposed to stay at the same average temperature for long periods of time as far as I know.

Not sure why we seem to expect it to these days, but there's no doubt that a lot of people expect it to and a lot of people want to "do something".

I'm hoping for another Krakatau.
Sooo... you are trying to downplay a very significant event by pointing to the hottest temperature recorded on Earth and saying "but it was hotter there"? That's incredibly stupid. The significance of this event is that it is smashing all previous record for AUSTRALIA. The averages are shifting. Which is exactly what one would expect in a rapidly warming climate system.

The idiocy of the line of reasoning you are putting forward is really... well... idiotic.
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:34 AM   #28
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I don't consider a predicted or actual heatwave a very significant event, so I'm not downplaying anything at all. For all I know, it was much hotter there before good records were kept.

Anyway, it's cold in places, too.

Using terms like "idiotic" and "idiocy" will not help you at all.

http://au.totaltravel.yahoo.com/news...freezes-china/
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:37 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by bit_pattern View Post
BOM has had to add a new colour to their chart

http://forums.randi.org/picture.php?...pictureid=7204
This chart really makes me think moving to Sweden was the wrong thing to do ....
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:40 AM   #30
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Sorry to hear about this, whatever the reason.

Whether it's anecdotal or not, I think that this sort of thing is what it takes to change some people's minds. Some people find anecdotes personally experienced more convincing than data, because it works at a subconscious level.
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:42 AM   #31
Puppycow
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Originally Posted by icerat View Post
This chart really makes me think moving to Sweden was the wrong thing to do ....
Why? Do you ever have temperatures like that in Sweden?
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:43 AM   #32
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Hrm. I can't help but think, "That kind of ambient heat could be useful."

Why not put together a water reclimation / solar power plant / sea salt production facility, right in the hottest area? I would think it wouldn't be overly difficult to set up...

Dig a large lake, throw down a little concrete, paint it black. Pump in ocean water, let it evaporate, run the vapor through a condenser, and every few months bring in the bulldozers to deal with the sea salt. Let the air temperature differential power a little turbine.

An actual engineer could come up with something simpler and more efficient, I suspect.

#EDIT: Might be profitable, even if you didn't capture the water and generate power. All you need is a pump, piping, and time. And perhaps all that excess vapor in the air might change the local conditions enough to turn an area into more of a veldt than a desert.

It's times like this I wish I were a wealthy man, just so I could "try this thing and see if it works".

Last edited by Mister Earl; 8th January 2013 at 06:47 AM.
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:59 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
The record high for Death Valley's Furnace Creek Station is 57C set in 1913.

From Wiki:
Although this post does miss the point, it is interesting to me because it lead me to read the wiki article and source it quoted that state that the old high temperature record in Libya has now been discounted as erroneous.

Although the source is unhappy with the Death Valley temp too!
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:19 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by bit_pattern View Post
Watch the records tumble as our cliamte on steroids becomes the new normal. Australia is going to become a very unpleasant place to live over coming decades
No, no it won't. The average comfort level of the population will continue to increase.

Making economy-harming changes to slow the warmup will also slow all advancing technology, and you'll pop out the other end, for any time period you choose, with a less warmer climate, but otherwise significantly behind techwise.

Imagine if the buffonery a hundred years ago slammed the brakes on their aggressive industrial expansion. Presumably we'd have a cooler climate.

...and about 1970-level technology. Or 1990. Or 1950.

In no way, shape, or form would those people be "better off".
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Last edited by Beerina; 8th January 2013 at 07:26 AM.
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:23 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by Beerina View Post
No, no it won't. The average comfort level of the population will continue to increase.
...
In no way, shape, or form would those people be "better off".
If you're dead, though, because of heat -strain then you are not better off.
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:27 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by Beerina View Post
No, no it won't. The average comfort level of the population will continue to increase.

Making economy-harming changes to slow the warmup will also slow all advancing trchnology, and you'll pop out the other end, for any time period you choose, with a less warmer climate, but otherwise significantly behind techwise.

Imagine if the buffonery a hundred years ago slammed the brakes on their aggressive industrial expansion. Presumably we'd have a cooler climate.

...and about 1970-level technology. Or 1990. Or 1950.

In no way, shape, or form would those people be "better off".
its so sad, its 2013, AGW is the biggest problem we have ever faced. Scientists well over 100 years have shown that CO2 levels might become a real problem. this concludion came always clearer and was supportet by a huge body of evidence. yet still in the year 2013 we have intelligent people that are not able to understand the problem.
sad. hope your kids will do a better job understanding the problematic of AGW.
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:51 AM   #37
icerat
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Why? Do you ever have temperatures like that in Sweden?
<sarc> ... </sarc>

I have experienced minus 47C here though ...
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Old 8th January 2013, 09:05 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by bobwtfomg View Post
Centennial cycle???

Got any science to back that up?

Or are you one of those "skeptics" who is actually only skeptical of mainstream consensus science but accepts unskeptically any fringe/pseudoscience claims that confirm your own biases?
I'm just saying that to me, it seems your post offers no way to distinguish high temperatures at the peak of a cycle, from high temperatures at the onset of an ongoing warming trend.

I don't think we're at the peak of a centennial (or millenial, or any other) cycle, but based on your contribution, how would we know?

Also, I'm asking, given a hypothetical centennia warming-cooling cycle, why would we expect to see record lows in the same years as we saw record highs? Wouldn't we expect to see record highs and record lows at opposite ends of the cycle?

And really, the same is true for the asserted warming trend: why would we expect to see record lows in the same years as record highs?

You've read the study: Can you tell us why they were looking for record lows in the same years as record highs, and what conclusions we can reasonably draw from the fact that the found none?

Because based on their findings, I think I can reasonably conclude that their study just as easily supports a warming-cooling cycle, as it does a nonstop warming trend.
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Old 8th January 2013, 09:07 AM   #39
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Quote:
Making economy-harming changes to slow the warmup will also slow all advancing trchnology, and you'll pop out the other end, for any time period you choose, with a less warmer climate, but otherwise significantly behind techwise.
wrong and Sweden is doing just fine as it moves to carbon neutral - it leads in that BTW

Quote:
Sweden emerged from the 2008 global recession raring to grow. The latest figures for 2011 show a steady rise in consumer confidence, an 11 percent jump in investment and a comfortable trade surplus of nearly $1 billion. Sweden’s economy is expected to see a 3.3 percent increase in annual growth in 2013 driven, in part, by several of the country's booming industries.
Quote:
Green Technology
Innovation and creativity drive Sweden’s booming green technology industry. Biofuels, sustainable construction materials and recycling ventures have been the focus of many of the more than 3,500 small, green-tech companies that have generated more than $14 billion in revenue and about 40,000 jobs. Sweden produces about 40 percent of its own power through renewable resources, and while the government continues to invest in wind, solar and geothermal systems, green companies have started to export small but powerful green technologies, such as ventilation systems that cut energy costs by 80 percent, and vertical greenhouses that require minimal amounts of energy and water. The government aggressively touts the green tech industry, and countries such as China and India are investing in Sweden's green tech companies.
http://work.chron.com/booming-indust...eden-3757.html
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Old 8th January 2013, 09:12 AM   #40
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Quote:
Because based on their findings, I think I can reasonably conclude that their study just as easily supports a warming-cooling cycle, as it does a nonstop warming trend.
your problem with that is you have absolutely nothing to drive a "warming and cooling" cycle.
Physics - established for over a century says...more C02, more heat retained.
And strangely enough....that's exactly what is happening.
Do you have any concept of the scale of warming this represents...



or is the ocean getting warm and cool on some mythical cycle in order to avoid you taking responsibility for the situation.

AGW is an unfortunate side effect of industrializing on a fossil fuel base. We can't avoid it. It's already in progress.
We can blunt the impact somewhat. BUt the start point is admitting the issue which some seem to have a pathological problem with.

You do understand that without AGW the Milankovich positioning would be drifting us slowly to another ice age?
That has been delayed or cancelled.
There are indeed very long scale cycles....we got in the way of that.

Last edited by macdoc; 8th January 2013 at 09:14 AM.
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