VIN numbers running out?

pgwenthold · 1st July 2004, 10:04 AM

Apparently some are claiming that they are running out of 17 digit VIN numbers.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/...shortage_x.htm

I say: no friggin way they should be anywhere close.

The website talks about how there are 60 million vehicles a year or whatever, but it doesn't matter. Even at 1 billion vehicles a year, it will still take 10^8 years before we use up all possible 17 digit numbers.

At 1 trillion vehicles a year (nonsensical), they will still last for 100 000 years.

There is no rational reason to change to 18 or 19 digit numbers. Just allow a more flexible code, like they did with phone numbers and area codes.

wjousts · 1st July 2004, 10:08 AM

I think the problem is that the VIN numbers aren't completely random, they are made up of smaller fields so the first x digits describe where the car came from, the next y digits might designate the engine size etc. I'm not positive on this though I only got it from flicking through the manual for a rental car I had once where it showed you how to break down the VIN number. It might have been a GM specific thing.

pgwenthold · 1st July 2004, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by wjousts
I think the problem is that the VIN numbers aren't completely random, they are made up of smaller fields so the first x digits describe where the car came from, the next y digits might designate the engine size etc. I'm not positive on this though I only got it from flicking through the manual for a rental car I had once where it showed you how to break down the VIN number. It might have been a GM specific thing.

That's why I said they have to be more flexible in their numbering. For example, instead of saying that all cars from Detroit are 100, make them a range from 100 - 105, etc. Engine types in ranges, etc.

17 numbers is more than enough to cover anything.

And if it isn't, just go to letters.

toddjh · 1st July 2004, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by pgwenthold
There is no rational reason to change to 18 or 19 digit numbers. Just allow a more flexible code, like they did with phone numbers and area codes.

What I don't understand is why they chose a scheme that was designed to fail in 30 years to begin with (regardless of whether the code length actually warrants that). I can understand that they just chose a poor scheme, and that's why they're running out now. But why didn't they make it 25 digits and put off the failure until the solar system dies?

Edited to add: Make it 23 digits to keep with the Illuminati numerology motif.

Jeremy

Earthborn · 1st July 2004, 10:17 AM

Quote:

I think the problem is that the VIN numbers aren't completely random

That's what the article pgwenthold linked to explained. And it also explained that it wouldn't be a good idea to switch to longer codes. The solution pgwenthold proposes 'just allow a more flexible code' is exactly the solution that is mentioned in the article.

The article also mentions that the codes can contain letters:

Quote:

For example, a VIN beginning with 5G1 now describes a Chevrolet built in the United States, while 5G2 identifies a Pontiac.

So I don't really see pg's point...

pgwenthold · 1st July 2004, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Earthborn
That's what the article pgwenthold linked to explained. And it also explained that it wouldn't be a good idea to switch to longer codes. The solution pgwenthold proposes 'just allow a more flexible code' is exactly the solution that is mentioned in the article.

The article also mentions that the codes can contain letters:So I don't really see pg's point...

Why is this news? There is no way in he!! that a 17 digit number _that includes letters_ can be anywhere close to being used up. So why put out a press release saying that numbers are running out?

TragicMonkey · 1st July 2004, 10:42 AM

The VIN breakdown can be found at:

http://www.vehicleidentificationnumb...in_detail.html

As a programmer, I hope they don't decide to fix it by adding more digits. That would require a lot of code rewriting...which would mean more money for me...wait, why exactly was I against that?

Charlie Monoxide · 1st July 2004, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by TragicMonkey
The VIN breakdown can be found at:

http://www.vehicleidentificationnumb...in_detail.html

As a programmer, I hope they don't decide to fix it by adding more digits. That would require a lot of code rewriting...which would mean more money for me...wait, why exactly was I against that?

I too am a programmer (recently laid off). If they do add more digits or totally restructure the VIN code, legions of off-shore programmers will be hired to implement and test the changes.

Charlie (aspiring Walmart greeter) Monoxide

Earthborn · 1st July 2004, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by pgwenthold
So why put out a press release saying that numbers are running out?

Because the present way the numbers are coded can only produce a limited number of VINs, and that limit is close to being reached. So the VINs that are possible are running out.

Sure, it doesn't sound like very important news if you see it on a global scale, but it sure is refreshing to have a newsitem that isn't about Iraq once in a while.

TragicMonkey · 1st July 2004, 11:26 AM

Supposedly there's a reverse offshoring trend kicking in as companies start to notice their products don't function. Judging by the posts on messageboards where people named "Ravi" and "Praja" beg for basic code help (or, more usually, just for code) I can see why. Companies that rely on the bottom line will change their minds once they realize that it's not cost effective to buy products that don't work, no matter how cheap they are.

I just hope everyone jacks up their prices in revenge once the work comes back.

Phrost · 1st July 2004, 11:35 AM

[technerd]Just assign each car a MAC address instead of a VIN.

[/technerd]

a_unique_person · 1st July 2004, 03:33 PM

Maybe they didn't expect the world to last that long, or the world to get as wealthy as it did. Chinese owning cars? Who would have guessed that would ever happen. Actually, I'd go with the latter scenario, when they dreamed it up, they dreamed up a code that fitted into their own world view, and didn't consider other possibilities for the rest of the world.

Rob Lister · 1st July 2004, 05:07 PM

This is just too close to the Y2K scare for my comfort.

Good thing I still have those six cases of spam and 400 rounds of twelve gauge. Go ahead DMV, make my day.

1st July 2004, 10:04 AM	#1
pgwenthold Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 12,074	VIN numbers running out? Apparently some are claiming that they are running out of 17 digit VIN numbers. http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/...shortage_x.htm I say: no friggin way they should be anywhere close. The website talks about how there are 60 million vehicles a year or whatever, but it doesn't matter. Even at 1 billion vehicles a year, it will still take 10^8 years before we use up all possible 17 digit numbers. At 1 trillion vehicles a year (nonsensical), they will still last for 100 000 years. There is no rational reason to change to 18 or 19 digit numbers. Just allow a more flexible code, like they did with phone numbers and area codes.
	__________________ "Baseball is a philosophy. The primordial ooze that once ruled our world has been captured in perpetual motion. Baseball is the moment. Its ever changing patterns are hypnotizing yet invigorating. Baseball is an art form. Classic and at the same time...progressive. Baseball is pre-historic and post-modern. Baseball is here to stay." (Stolen from the side of a lava lamp box, and modified slightly)

1st July 2004, 10:08 AM	#2
wjousts Critical Thinker Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 324	I think the problem is that the VIN numbers aren't completely random, they are made up of smaller fields so the first x digits describe where the car came from, the next y digits might designate the engine size etc. I'm not positive on this though I only got it from flicking through the manual for a rental car I had once where it showed you how to break down the VIN number. It might have been a GM specific thing.
wjousts Critical Thinker Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 324	__________________ "Where do we go to get our good name back? .... We go where we always go when a dramatic change is needed. We go to the ballot box" - Al Gore 5/26/04

1st July 2004, 10:11 AM	#3
pgwenthold Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 12,074	Quote: Originally posted by wjousts I think the problem is that the VIN numbers aren't completely random, they are made up of smaller fields so the first x digits describe where the car came from, the next y digits might designate the engine size etc. I'm not positive on this though I only got it from flicking through the manual for a rental car I had once where it showed you how to break down the VIN number. It might have been a GM specific thing. That's why I said they have to be more flexible in their numbering. For example, instead of saying that all cars from Detroit are 100, make them a range from 100 - 105, etc. Engine types in ranges, etc. 17 numbers is more than enough to cover anything. And if it isn't, just go to letters.
	__________________ "Baseball is a philosophy. The primordial ooze that once ruled our world has been captured in perpetual motion. Baseball is the moment. Its ever changing patterns are hypnotizing yet invigorating. Baseball is an art form. Classic and at the same time...progressive. Baseball is pre-historic and post-modern. Baseball is here to stay." (Stolen from the side of a lava lamp box, and modified slightly)

1st July 2004, 10:13 AM	#4
toddjh Illuminator Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: USA Posts: 3,252	Re: VIN numbers running out? Quote: Originally posted by pgwenthold There is no rational reason to change to 18 or 19 digit numbers. Just allow a more flexible code, like they did with phone numbers and area codes. What I don't understand is why they chose a scheme that was designed to fail in 30 years to begin with (regardless of whether the code length actually warrants that). I can understand that they just chose a poor scheme, and that's why they're running out now. But why didn't they make it 25 digits and put off the failure until the solar system dies? Edited to add: Make it 23 digits to keep with the Illuminati numerology motif. Jeremy

1st July 2004, 10:17 AM	#5
Earthborn Terrestrial Intelligence Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Terra Firma Posts: 5,648	Quote: I think the problem is that the VIN numbers aren't completely random That's what the article pgwenthold linked to explained. And it also explained that it wouldn't be a good idea to switch to longer codes. The solution pgwenthold proposes 'just allow a more flexible code' is exactly the solution that is mentioned in the article. The article also mentions that the codes can contain letters: Quote: For example, a VIN beginning with 5G1 now describes a Chevrolet built in the United States, while 5G2 identifies a Pontiac. So I don't really see pg's point...
	__________________ Perhaps nothing is entirely true; and not even that! Multatuli

1st July 2004, 10:23 AM	#6
pgwenthold Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 12,074	Quote: Originally posted by Earthborn That's what the article pgwenthold linked to explained. And it also explained that it wouldn't be a good idea to switch to longer codes. The solution pgwenthold proposes 'just allow a more flexible code' is exactly the solution that is mentioned in the article. The article also mentions that the codes can contain letters:So I don't really see pg's point... Why is this news? There is no way in he!! that a 17 digit number _that includes letters_ can be anywhere close to being used up. So why put out a press release saying that numbers are running out?
	__________________ "Baseball is a philosophy. The primordial ooze that once ruled our world has been captured in perpetual motion. Baseball is the moment. Its ever changing patterns are hypnotizing yet invigorating. Baseball is an art form. Classic and at the same time...progressive. Baseball is pre-historic and post-modern. Baseball is here to stay." (Stolen from the side of a lava lamp box, and modified slightly)

1st July 2004, 10:42 AM	#7
TragicMonkey Poisoned Waffles Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Monkey Posts: 30,112	The VIN breakdown can be found at: http://www.vehicleidentificationnumb...in_detail.html As a programmer, I hope they don't decide to fix it by adding more digits. That would require a lot of code rewriting...which would mean more money for me...wait, why exactly was I against that?
	__________________ One cannot expect wisdom to flow from a pumpkin.

1st July 2004, 10:58 AM	#8
Charlie Monoxide Wag Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: London, Ontario Posts: 2,761	Quote: Originally posted by TragicMonkey The VIN breakdown can be found at: http://www.vehicleidentificationnumb...in_detail.html As a programmer, I hope they don't decide to fix it by adding more digits. That would require a lot of code rewriting...which would mean more money for me...wait, why exactly was I against that? I too am a programmer (recently laid off). If they do add more digits or totally restructure the VIN code, legions of off-shore programmers will be hired to implement and test the changes. Charlie (aspiring Walmart greeter) Monoxide
	__________________ Major General Wag of JREF

1st July 2004, 11:21 AM	#9
Earthborn Terrestrial Intelligence Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Terra Firma Posts: 5,648	Quote: Originally posted by pgwenthold So why put out a press release saying that numbers are running out? Because the present way the numbers are coded can only produce a limited number of VINs, and that limit is close to being reached. So the VINs that are possible are running out. Sure, it doesn't sound like very important news if you see it on a global scale, but it sure is refreshing to have a newsitem that isn't about Iraq once in a while.
	__________________ Perhaps nothing is entirely true; and not even that! Multatuli

1st July 2004, 11:26 AM	#10
TragicMonkey Poisoned Waffles Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Monkey Posts: 30,112	Supposedly there's a reverse offshoring trend kicking in as companies start to notice their products don't function. Judging by the posts on messageboards where people named "Ravi" and "Praja" beg for basic code help (or, more usually, just for code) I can see why. Companies that rely on the bottom line will change their minds once they realize that it's not cost effective to buy products that don't work, no matter how cheap they are. I just hope everyone jacks up their prices in revenge once the work comes back.
	__________________ One cannot expect wisdom to flow from a pumpkin.

1st July 2004, 11:35 AM	#11
Phrost The Fighting Skeptic Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Cowtown, Missouri Posts: 1,656	[technerd]Just assign each car a MAC address instead of a VIN. [/technerd]
	__________________ "I never intend for my posts to read like I'm aggressive or confrontational, but I am so they do." Executive Director: Bullshido.net Fighting BS in the Martial Arts Amateur No-Holds-Barred/MMA Fighter, Skeptic, Bright. www.Phrost.com

1st July 2004, 03:33 PM	#12
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Mt Disappointment Posts: 33,333	Maybe they didn't expect the world to last that long, or the world to get as wealthy as it did. Chinese owning cars? Who would have guessed that would ever happen. Actually, I'd go with the latter scenario, when they dreamed it up, they dreamed up a code that fitted into their own world view, and didn't consider other possibilities for the rest of the world.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it. Hobbes

1st July 2004, 05:07 PM	#13
Rob Lister Suspended Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Virginia Beach, VA Posts: 8,523	This is just too close to the Y2K scare for my comfort. Good thing I still have those six cases of spam and 400 rounds of twelve gauge. Go ahead DMV, make my day.