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sophia8 · 1st January 2005, 12:19 PM

www.ineter.gob.ni/geofisica/conferencias/ESC2004/Papers%2520ESC%25202004/SCE-Venkatanathan.pdf+%22N+Venkatanathan%22&hl=en&clie nt=firefox-a]These guys say they can predict earthquakes.[/url]
Opinions, anyone?

Dr Adequate · 1st January 2005, 01:50 PM

Not this again

Dilb · 1st January 2005, 11:52 PM

I'm hardly qualified to comment on real geology, but I can't intuitivly think why anything other than the moon could have an effect, as the moon is the main cause of tides. Since tidal forces are much smaller for every other body to the point of being neglegible, I don't see how a shear stress could be produced.

On predicting earthquakes in general, bear in mind that there are earthquakes constantly occuring, even in "stable" areas. Below magnitude 3 they can't really be felt. Predicting earthquakes in California and only getting a 3.2 is practically a failure. Only getting 1 magnitude 5 even seems like a failure, considering it's estimated that 1300 occur annually at that magnitude.http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html

I certainly wouldn't be impressed with the results. Are you going to evacuate California for an earthquake that can barely be felt?
At least that's my take on it.

Soapy Sam · 2nd January 2005, 01:50 PM

The Jupiter Effect resurgent.

The key to EQ prediction is local knowledge and detailed observation. The causes of quakes vary. It may be tensional stress related to uplift due to a magma chamber filling at depth; it may be tensional due to lateral plate movement. It may be compressional. (or any combination thereof.) Regional geology varies. Plate movements destroy old rocks which formed in a variety of environments and have different structural characteristics.
You need to know the regional tectonic context and the regional geology, right down to local levels.
Yes, groundwater levels will change before quakes in some places. Not in others. We need to know what to look for in each area.

If a situation has sufficient stress build up to overcome the shear resistance of local rock, something's going to give. The final straw may well be tidal. Or a truck on the highway, or a mining operation, a quarry blast, or a bird landing on a rock.

Lunar tides may well be one trigger, but I doubt planetary gravity is ever a significant factor.
The primary causes of earthquakes are on Earth, not in heaven.

Anders · 4th January 2005, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by sophia8
www.ineter.gob.ni/geofisica/conferencias/ESC2004/Papers%2520ESC%25202004/SCE-Venkatanathan.pdf+%22N+Venkatanathan%22&hl=en&clie nt=firefox-a]These guys say they can predict earthquakes.[/url]
Opinions, anyone?

I dont' get it. They have misscalculculated by a few million percent?!? Or have they somehow added the forces? Strange! Well, I trust Truman Collins more then these guys! He has done corrected calculations, according to the text books.

These guys have forces in the scale of 10<sup>25</sup> N where Collins have 10<sup>-20</sup> N.

Odd indeed.

1st January 2005, 12:19 PM	#1
sophia8 Master Poster Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: In the dark, dark forest.... Posts: 2,289	Earthquake Prediction www.ineter.gob.ni/geofisica/conferencias/ESC2004/Papers%2520ESC%25202004/SCE-Venkatanathan.pdf+%22N+Venkatanathan%22&hl=en&clie nt=firefox-a]These guys say they can predict earthquakes.[/url] Opinions, anyone?
	__________________ "Nature is floods and famines and earthquakes and viruses and little blue-footed booby babies getting their brains pecked out by their stronger siblings! ....Nature doesn't care about me, or about anybody in particular - nature can be terrifying! Why do they even put words like 'natural' on products like shampoo, like it's automatically a good thing? I mean, sulfuric acid is natural!" -Julia Sweeney

1st January 2005, 11:52 PM	#3
Dilb Muse Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 738	I'm hardly qualified to comment on real geology, but I can't intuitivly think why anything other than the moon could have an effect, as the moon is the main cause of tides. Since tidal forces are much smaller for every other body to the point of being neglegible, I don't see how a shear stress could be produced. On predicting earthquakes in general, bear in mind that there are earthquakes constantly occuring, even in "stable" areas. Below magnitude 3 they can't really be felt. Predicting earthquakes in California and only getting a 3.2 is practically a failure. Only getting 1 magnitude 5 even seems like a failure, considering it's estimated that 1300 occur annually at that magnitude.http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html I certainly wouldn't be impressed with the results. Are you going to evacuate California for an earthquake that can barely be felt? At least that's my take on it.
Dilb Muse Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 738

2nd January 2005, 01:50 PM	#4
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,907	The Jupiter Effect resurgent. The key to EQ prediction is local knowledge and detailed observation. The causes of quakes vary. It may be tensional stress related to uplift due to a magma chamber filling at depth; it may be tensional due to lateral plate movement. It may be compressional. (or any combination thereof.) Regional geology varies. Plate movements destroy old rocks which formed in a variety of environments and have different structural characteristics. You need to know the regional tectonic context and the regional geology, right down to local levels. Yes, groundwater levels will change before quakes in some places. Not in others. We need to know what to look for in each area. If a situation has sufficient stress build up to overcome the shear resistance of local rock, something's going to give. The final straw may well be tidal. Or a truck on the highway, or a mining operation, a quarry blast, or a bird landing on a rock. Lunar tides may well be one trigger, but I doubt planetary gravity is ever a significant factor. The primary causes of earthquakes are on Earth, not in heaven.
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,907

4th January 2005, 08:27 AM	#5
Anders Muse Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 752	Re: Earthquake Prediction Quote: Originally posted by sophia8 www.ineter.gob.ni/geofisica/conferencias/ESC2004/Papers%2520ESC%25202004/SCE-Venkatanathan.pdf+%22N+Venkatanathan%22&hl=en&clie nt=firefox-a]These guys say they can predict earthquakes.[/url] Opinions, anyone? I dont' get it. They have misscalculculated by a few million percent?!? Or have they somehow added the forces? Strange! Well, I trust Truman Collins more then these guys! He has done corrected calculations, according to the text books. These guys have forces in the scale of 10<sup>25</sup> N where Collins have 10<sup>-20</sup> N. Odd indeed.
Anders Muse Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 752	__________________ "A Demon in a Jesus infested world" Save Katie!

1st January 2005, 01:50 PM	#2
Dr Adequate Banned Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Waiting Long Enough By The River Posts: 17,897	Not this again