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#1 |
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Master Poster
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 2,310
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new term, same ol'Bush, different lies
Social Security.........Repete after me .....Private accounts, crisis, Private accounts, crisis, Private accounts, crisis
Fudged numbers, record deficit, Fudged numbers, record deficit, Fudged numbers, record deficit, Private accounts, crisis, Fudged numbers, record deficit. Could be more pedantic but I'm just wondering what the Busholigests will say , should be interesting. |
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"God does not play dice with the universe." Albert Einstein "Who is Einstein to tell God what to do?" Niels Bohr Remember, %97.3 of all accidents occur %100 of the time. |
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#2 |
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NWO Master Conspirator
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Albany Park, Chicago
Posts: 49,129
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You're right, SS is just hunky-dory. No crisis, they can just keep reducing benefits, increase witholdings, or raise the retirement age to 90 or so. So by the time younger people retire they'll find that w/ the increased SS witholdings they had little left over to invest in a real retirement plan. They should just suck it up, cash their $.79 SS check and learn to like cat food. See? Nothing wrong at all.
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#3 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 16,744
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Social security for baby-boomers is the priority in the real seat of global power, reports Heather Stewart
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If new funds start entering the stock market, there will be an inflationary effect on shares. Which might make things look good for a little while. Inflation from the falling dollar will help. P/E may suffer, but hey, this is a new economic paradigm. On the back of paper profits, personal indebtedness may well increase yet further, fuelling a min-boom (or at least mitigating a bust). Until reality kicks the door in. Oh the humanity ... That, of course, will be more than four years down the line - seven would be good, so the crash is blamed on the next president. Then Jeb steps in for 2012. Masterful. (Edited for typo) |
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It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150 |
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#4 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 9,873
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I don't mind them trying to fix it, but to use that as an excuse to privatize it into the stock market, I won't go for. I don't entirely trust businesses with my future. As it happens, I do have a private retirement fund. I feel good that there is also a government program--that way one may work if the other fails... it's called diversification.
To me Bush's plan sounds like putting all of one's eggs in one basket--the stock market |
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#5 |
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NWO Master Conspirator
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Albany Park, Chicago
Posts: 49,129
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Federal employees have already been able to opt out of SS for years. Why shouldn't everyone else have the same option? |
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#6 |
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Wag
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 2,761
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So George W and his merry band of neocons have saved us from international terrorism. Now in their profound depth of charity and foresight, they are going to save us from the demise of Social Security.
Why am I so cynical about anything they do? Charlie (hope I die before i get old) Monoxide |
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Major General Wag of JREF |
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#7 |
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NWO Master Conspirator
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Albany Park, Chicago
Posts: 49,129
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And as the 90's showed, the stock market doesn't need gov't intervention to become greatly over-valued. The economic boom during the Clinton era was fueled largely by the "irrational exuberance" in tech stocks. The underlying economy wasn't nearly so hot as it appeared and led to the recession that started in early 2000. |
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#8 |
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NWO Master Conspirator
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Albany Park, Chicago
Posts: 49,129
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#9 |
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Off Topic
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 2,974
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I'm just curious here - if I got it right, the US government owes Social Security a lot of money, secured by bonds. If the Social Security is privatized (or had been already) and 'invested' in bonds (read: lent the money to the government, supposedly the most reliable lender around), why would it be more likely that the money would be paid back than it is now? |
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Little did I know, that all those days that came and went, were my life .... |
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#10 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 3,467
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#11 |
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Hypocrisy Detector
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Dayton, Ohio
Posts: 20,196
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1) Bush, the Yale business school grad, is suggesting that we invest in the stock market rather than the current system which is effectively similar to investing in US bonds. Your average person doesn't know jack about the stock market. Your average person has been putting money into SS their whole working lives.
2) It is said that there won't be enough money for SS in 45 years or something. But that's when Gen-Xers will be getting benefits, and there are fewer of us. How is that a crisis, exactly? If Bush thinks the stock market is so freaking great, why doesn't he just propose to invest Social Security money in the stock market? If he did it in dentists' offices, they could save on NO2. |
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"A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men." - Willy Wonka "Rational arguments don't work on religious people. If they did, there wouldn't be any religious people." - House Additionally to Carlin being funnier than Izzard, I think Dorian is funnier than the Marquis. - Ron Tomkins |
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#12 |
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Innocent bystander
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 2,111
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'As notable chicken superior court judge Sir Peckpeck Eatsbugs-Smythe once said, "the only thing we have to fear is space lizards with atom ray guns from beyond the moon." As true today as when it was said.' - TragicMonkey |
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#13 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 4,187
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Lurker |
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#14 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 4,689
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What's gonna happen if he tries to redeem these (upon maturity)? Will he have to raise taxes to cover it? The answer, very clearly, is that money from the general revenues will have to be used to redeem the bonds from the President. And come to think of it, having this big stack of big government IOUs written out to yourself when you're the head of that same big government is equivalent to having nothing at all. What this means is that the President has gotten government bonds in exchange for the tax money that is being spent today instead of being saved. But you cannot spend and save the same money, no matter what accounting gimmicks you use. If you ask me, it'll be like government moving money from its right hand to its left when the President raises taxes to cover his bond redemptions. And taxpayers left with having to pay the bill. |
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Disturbances of the semantic reactions in connection with faulty education and ignorance must be considered as sub-microscopic colloidal lesions - Alfred O. Korzybski |
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#15 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 3,187
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#16 |
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JREF Kid
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 8,944
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Paul Krugman says there is no pending crisis in SS. A rabid Bush hater who literally blew his fuse after Bush won re-election is saying something contradictory to reality. However, since Krugman is an "intellectual" and Bush is an idiot, Krugman must be right.
Personally, I think the fact that we have gone from 16 to 2 payers is a crisis in and of itself. In the business world heads would be rolling with that kind of performance. Only in the pages of the NYT does the program actually going insolvent elevate it to a crisis. I think many of these people like Krugman are going to look back on these contrarian for the sake of hating Bush positions and wince. |
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In the tradition of "Stop Silvia!" Stop Hal Bidlack: http://skepticalcommunity.com/forums...hp?f=1&t=28671 |
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#17 |
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King of the Pod People
Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA
Posts: 20,536
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#18 |
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Critical Thinker
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Soviet Canickistan
Posts: 380
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An ad hominem fallacy does not exactly blow Mr Krugman out of the water. Is he the only one suggesting that privatizing government pension plans is a bad idea?
Doug Henwood's book Wall Street: How it works and for whom does a chapter on this and labels it a bad idea. |
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When asked why he kept enlisting, Cpl. Francisco Gomez told his uncle 'someone has to protect the children from the bullets' Believe half of what you see, a quarter of what you read, and absolutely nothing that you hear - Dad |
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#19 |
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Off Topic
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 2,974
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You're saying that the government has borrowed money from Social Security, but the loans are secured by 'Treasury Securities', not bonds, and 'Treasury Securities' have no market value? The government doesn't have an 'obligation' to pay? The government is putting it this way, however:
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If the Social Security is privatized (or had been already) and 'invested' in bonds (read: lent the money to the government, supposedly the most reliable lender around), why would it be more likely that the money would be paid back than it is now? |
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Little did I know, that all those days that came and went, were my life .... |
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#20 |
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Master Poster
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 2,310
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WildCat wasn't "irrational exuberance" Alan Greenspan? He warned for a long time about a "Shakeout" on Wall Street.
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"God does not play dice with the universe." Albert Einstein "Who is Einstein to tell God what to do?" Niels Bohr Remember, %97.3 of all accidents occur %100 of the time. |
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#21 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 3,187
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#22 |
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JREF Kid
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 8,944
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And what do you mean by privatization? As far as I know, the only privatization plan thats being seriously considered is optional. Right now, social security only functions in a demand-side way. People get money and spend it. Allowing semi-private accounts puts the money to work before it is paid out. Instead of social security being a drain (workers pay in/ overhead/ money paid out to recipients), social security can bolster the private sector through investment. One more comment, I am not anti-intellectual. I just think the term is vague, loosely applied, and frankly irks me. There is no certification for an intellectual as opposed to an engineer. Krugman is one of these people who area routinely referred to as intellectuals and hence I referred to him as one but with quotes. |
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In the tradition of "Stop Silvia!" Stop Hal Bidlack: http://skepticalcommunity.com/forums...hp?f=1&t=28671 |
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#23 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 4,187
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1. Mr. Krugman received his B.A. from Yale University in 1974 and his Ph.D. from MIT in 1977. He has taught at Yale, MIT and Stanford. At MIT he became the Ford International Professor of Economics. 2. Paul Krugman is a professor of economics at Princeton University 3. He’s been named as one of the top international economists by The Economist. 4. In recognition of his work in international trade and finance, the American Economic Association awarded him its John Bates Clark medal Yep, I would not trust this guy to discuss economics. Clearly he has no idea what he is talking about. Lurker P.S. Sure, he could be wrong. |
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#24 |
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King of the Pod People
Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA
Posts: 20,536
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I take a different approach. I freely admit I have no frikkin' idea of Social Security will last or not. Accounting gives me a headache. All I know is 1) SS pays a pitiful amount of money, yet 2) some people live on it, so it's important to save it. And 3) as a result of 1) and 2), I'd rather not have to live on it. |
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#25 |
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JREF Kid
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 8,944
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The fact is, we know there will be a crisis point at which the only solution will be to cut benefits and raise taxes. I think its somewhat dishonest to claim that since that point isn't in the next decade that the problem isn't now, since reforming a program that large to where its forever solvent and provides a better level of return will take many years to do. |
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In the tradition of "Stop Silvia!" Stop Hal Bidlack: http://skepticalcommunity.com/forums...hp?f=1&t=28671 |
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#26 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 4,187
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You see Corplinx, it is a rather meaningless stat. Of far more interest is the actual budget of SS. Citing rather meaningless stats like 16-2 when there is so much involved other than just the number of workers vs retirees. Reducing it to a simplistic ratio is just that - simplistic. I do think there is a problem with SS. Not a crisis, but a problem and the sooner we do something the easier fixing it will be. Privatization is just one of many possible solutions. If you want a crisis, someone pointed out to me that Medicare is in far worse shape and could cost even more, and more imminent than SS. Why don't we concentrate our efforts on that one instead? Lurker |
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#27 |
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JREF Kid
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 8,944
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__________________
In the tradition of "Stop Silvia!" Stop Hal Bidlack: http://skepticalcommunity.com/forums...hp?f=1&t=28671 |
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#28 |
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JREF Kid
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 8,944
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__________________
In the tradition of "Stop Silvia!" Stop Hal Bidlack: http://skepticalcommunity.com/forums...hp?f=1&t=28671 |
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#29 |
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JREF Kid
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 8,944
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__________________
In the tradition of "Stop Silvia!" Stop Hal Bidlack: http://skepticalcommunity.com/forums...hp?f=1&t=28671 |
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#30 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 4,187
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#31 |
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JREF Kid
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 8,944
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It is on a slow slope downward. Even Krugman does not deny that. He thinks the Bush admin is implying the crisis is today and that seems to be the major beef. So, Krugman and I both believe that changes will need to take place at some point. Where does the flat earth position come from that there is no problem? |
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In the tradition of "Stop Silvia!" Stop Hal Bidlack: http://skepticalcommunity.com/forums...hp?f=1&t=28671 |
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#32 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 4,187
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#33 |
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Master Poster
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 2,310
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Well the phrase "critical mass" may be a bit off topic but as a metaphor it works. It could be labeled "Phase Transition" which Chemists and Physicists use to describe a rapid switch between two succinct states or a "Knee Curve" used by Mathematicians and Engineers as well as Statisticians . Point being that we can see by projection alone ..............that nothing is certain. Be that as it may at least we can see the precipice we are rushing toward, opinions as to out speed may vary but unless there is correction ( and not what Bush has in mind) the expenditures WILL exceed inflow of capital in the SS system.
So for Your retirement You will rwcieve a gold tone watch (mfg in China) and a hardy handclasp. Wooo! |
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"God does not play dice with the universe." Albert Einstein "Who is Einstein to tell God what to do?" Niels Bohr Remember, %97.3 of all accidents occur %100 of the time. |
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#34 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 4,187
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Actually, by people who have run the numbers if we do nothing today, benefits would have to be reduced by about 20% in 2052 to balance the program.
So those of us expecting $20,000/year on SS will have to make do with $16,000. (An example) Nto great but still a heck of a lot better than a gold watch. ![]() Lurker |
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#35 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Front Range, CO
Posts: 7,088
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a CEO making a business decision, one analogous to a country going to war, on false data, would resign or be fired. a CEO who took the reigns of a company in the black and then ran up the largest red ink in the companies history would also be shown the door. only in the world of the Bush and his faithful do such things get brushed aside. |
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I will no longer respond to those who choose to have tools of murder as their avatars. Everyone is a skeptic except, of course, for the stuff that they believe Beaver Hateman: Is your argument that human life loses value proportionate to the number of humans available? Malcolm Kirkpatrick: That's part of the argument. Value is determined by supply and demand. |
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#36 |
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JREF Kid
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 8,944
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Some people just don't need social security. |
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In the tradition of "Stop Silvia!" Stop Hal Bidlack: http://skepticalcommunity.com/forums...hp?f=1&t=28671 |
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#37 |
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A broken man on a Halifax pier, the last of Barrett's Privateers
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: About 7 Miles from the Saturn 5B
Posts: 6,539
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In the 80's the program for new employees was changed to the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS), which DOES include Social Security as part of the system (I am not sure of the opt-out part as I am not a member) along with investing up to 10% of your salary in various Mutual-type funds with a corresponding Government contribution(As an older employee, I buy in for 5%-10%, but without the matching Government contributions). So the older plan is more on the line of a regular pension, while the new plan is Social Security + a Government 401k-style investment. Hope this helps and I'll let the rest of the folks get back to the debate. |
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If sheer righteous fury could accomplish anything worthwhile, Wolverines would have inherited the Galaxy long ago." -Web DuHavel, David Weber's "Honorverse" Series |
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#38 |
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Master Poster
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 2,310
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Corpse:"Personally, I am in favor of means testing."
Whoa bubba , slow that horsie down. You favor means testing at which end? Paying in or out? It's entirely unfair for people to pay into the system only to be told that they make too much money to qualify for SS payments. That just robbery by legislation and so- unjust . If they make so much money to enjoy those monies later then they shouldn't pay in at all. |
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"God does not play dice with the universe." Albert Einstein "Who is Einstein to tell God what to do?" Niels Bohr Remember, %97.3 of all accidents occur %100 of the time. |
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#39 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 16,744
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When it comes to home, life savings and pension you do not want the money consigned to people chasing performance ratings in a speculative and emotional market. That's for fun money. Otherwise I see tears at the end of the day ...
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__________________
It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150 |
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#40 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Cardiff, South Wales
Posts: 16,744
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The real (in my opinion) objective is to direct money from government bonds to corporate bonds, which pay a higher return because of the risk factor. (I have a sneaking suspicion you know all this ...) Out there amongst the sharks and away from the bureaucrats and actuaries it's that much more vulnerable to plunder. I've got to look into getting a piece of this. |
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It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150 |
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