Pascal's Wager and Elzoob!

c4ts · 5th September 2005, 10:42 PM

Either their is a God, or there isn't, and the wager assumes a lot about this God should you wager for it, whatever that may mean. Let us assume that the table runs something like this:

Wager for God - God exists: Gain all; God does not exist: status quo
Wager against God - God exists: misery; God does not exist: status quo

Clearly, the wager does not consider the possibility of a completely random and incomprehensible God, yet either a completely random and incomprehensible God exists, or it doesn't, so the chances are 50/50. Let as look at the adjusted chart:

Wager for God - God exists: ???: status quo
Wager against God - God exists: ???; God does not exist: status quo.

Since Pascal even admits that nothing can be completely known about God, it makes no sense that believing in the specific Christian version should have anything to do with what "wagering" is. If it is what God wants, then what if God wants you to disbelieve in his existence because he's beyond logic? What if he wants you to inhale Tang until your lungs turn orange? What if God wants you to train a bunch of monkeys to shoot lazer beams out of a giant model of George Foreman made entirely out of toothpicks? Your chances of success are a whole lot less than 50/50 if you haven't done any of those things!

Based on his arguments, Pascal says to believe is to wager for God. However, adhering to one set of random crap your entire life is going to signifigantly reduce your chances, especially when so many sets already exists. Why not believe an infinite amount of random crap in hopes that one will be right? You've got to cover all your bases! After all, if flipping an infinite number of coins will guarantee at least one will turn up heads, and comitting the gambler's fallacy will have multiple coin flips screwing with your chances of success, why not buy a gigantic cake and hurl it out the car window while shouting "I'm a lizard! Don't kill Leno you can no!" ? After all, belief is doing! Mighty Elzoob's ways are unknown to us, so we must try everything possible and impossible! You might get alphabet soup every day but you never know what the decoder ring is going to look like.

So yeah, go to church and all that. Go to church dressed like Michael Jackson collided with Kaga Takeshi and paint yourself turquoise in case Elzoob likes that color, then drink 20 martinis and have sex with linguini. And don't even actually go, send a body double and have him or her say you've changed your name to "Fackford E. Chimberwozzle LXVII" and you live on the moon. It might look crazy, but the math works out okay. After all, if the church is wrong but the color turquoise is right, you've got your bases covered! And what if the God doesn't like it when you do these things? Do a bunch of other random things and it will all balance out in the end. And if there is no God then status quo, whatever that's supposed to mean. It's simple probability.

What if Elzoob does not exist, but some other God does? Well, if that God happens to be fond of fashion so bad it makes your mortal eyeballs fall out of your skull and burst open with maggots, you've got your bases covered! Or perhaps it's the God Who Favors Long and Silly Names... you get the picture. And if it's the Aztec Snaky God of Human Sacrifice? There's only so much you can do at once, but you can always sacrifice a whole lot of people the next service.

Yes, you can do a great deal of things by following Elzoob's incomprehensible word. Just remember the number 1 rule: you can justify anything if you jump the conclusion that you're right and everyone else is wrong, and ignore other arguments. Now you know the secret to success!

Iacchus · 6th September 2005, 12:11 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by c4ts

Either their is a God, or there isn't ...

Yep.

Quote:

... and the wager assumes a lot about this God should you wager for it, whatever that may mean. Let us assume that the table runs something like this:

Let us "not" assume anything ... except that we maintain some sort of morality and charity towards others.

Lothian · 6th September 2005, 02:00 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Iacchus

Let us "not" assume anything ... except that we maintain some sort of morality and charity towards others.

Iacchus,

I quite agree with your statement as written, if not as you understand it.

Iacchus · 6th September 2005, 03:40 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Lothian
Iacchus,

I quite agree with your statement as written, if not as you understand it.

Well, I personally don't think God is looking for suckups. So in that sense I kind of think it defeats the wager. If, in fact that's what the wager requires you to do.

Lothian · 6th September 2005, 04:04 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Iacchus
Well, I personally don't think God is looking for suckups. So in that sense I kind of think it defeats the wager. If, in fact that's what the wager requires you to do.

I was referring to your statement (which I quoted) not the original one.

I am smugly pleased to be proved right as well. I agreed that we should not assume anything knowing quite well that you assume there is a god with no proof whatsoever.

Iacchus · 6th September 2005, 04:12 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Lothian
I was referring to your statement (which I quoted) not the original one.

I am smugly pleased to be proved right as well. I agreed that we should not assume anything knowing quite well that you assume there is a god with no proof whatsoever.

And why do you assume that this is so? Can you be so sure, I mean assume that God doesn't exist?

cyborg · 6th September 2005, 04:24 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Iacchus
And why do you assume that this is so? Can you be so sure, I mean assume that God doesn't exist?

And what makes you assume you have the faintest clue about whether it does or doesn't?

Lothian · 6th September 2005, 04:47 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Iacchus
And why do you assume that this is so? Can you be so sure, I mean assume that God doesn't exist?

Read the thread. I donâ€™t assume god exists or assume he doesnâ€™t. We both said we donâ€™t assume anything, although you appear to be backtracking.

Iacchus · 6th September 2005, 04:57 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by cyborg
And what makes you assume you have the faintest clue about whether it does or doesn't?

Yep, either God exists or He doesn't exist ...

c4ts · 6th September 2005, 05:14 AM

Iacchus, that was satire!

cyborg · 6th September 2005, 06:29 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Iacchus
Yep, either God exists or He doesn't exist ...

Either your brain exists or it doesn't. Evidence is for the later.

FireGarden · 6th September 2005, 07:04 AM

The Flying Spaghetti Monster is not a jealous God. (So there's no point in believing in him)

Ditto the Invisible Pink Unicorn, and the Great Taco in the Sky

bignickel · 6th September 2005, 07:08 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by FireGarden
The Flying Spaghetti Monster is not a jealous God. (So there's no point in believing in him)

Ditto the Invisible Pink Unicorn, and the Great Taco in the Sky

Sounds like someone is defining god(s)...

Beerina · 6th September 2005, 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by c4ts
However, adhering to one set of random crap your entire life is going to signifigantly reduce your chances, especially when so many sets already exists. Why not believe an infinite amount of random crap in hopes that one will be right? You've got to cover all your bases!

A good point. For a Christian god, it's even worse than that. Christianity itself states that most people even who believe in God are going to Hell. If you haven't confessed your sins, or maybe if you haven't fallen to your knees and had a sudden rush of endorphins while pondering John 3:16, who knows, you will be going to Hell.

Skeptical Greg · 6th September 2005, 07:44 AM

The problem with Pascal's wager, is that it requires that you be able to fool God into thinking that you believe, when you may have doubts..

It makes my head hurt...

shemp · 6th September 2005, 09:58 AM

Since the number of possible deities is infinite, I would have to do infinitely many things in order to please whichever one may really exist. Yet any of these things has a 50-50 chance of pissing off that deity. So I think the best course of action is to do nothing to try to please any deity, because by doing so there is an equal chance that I am sealing my own doom. I shall just continue my usual pastime of letting giant purple monkeys fly out of my ass.

c4ts · 6th September 2005, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by shemp
Since the number of possible deities is infinite, I would have to do infinitely many things in order to please whichever one may really exist. Yet any of these things has a 50-50 chance of pissing off that deity. So I think the best course of action is to do nothing to try to please any deity, because by doing so there is an equal chance that I am sealing my own doom. I shall just continue my usual pastime of letting giant purple monkeys fly out of my ass.

But Shemp, you can never win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket! And why buy one when you can buy a billion? If the return is infinite, it doesn't matter how much you spend because you will come out ahead if you win.

shemp · 6th September 2005, 10:57 AM

What if the return is NOT infinite? Suppose the afterlife is just another 80 years of this? 80 more years of giant purple monkeys flying out of my ass? I THINK NOT!!!

c4ts · 6th September 2005, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by shemp
What if the return is NOT infinite? Suppose the afterlife is just another 80 years of this? 80 more years of giant purple monkeys flying out of my ass? I THINK NOT!!!

All possible integers between 0 and 80 are infinite, therefore 80 = infinite reward, so you have nothing to worry about. What those infinite 80 years will be like is anybody's guess, but if you sit around doing nothing, your infinity COULD be an unimaginably horrible nasty sweaty sumo pit full of whale-like human beings who will press you into jerky, a place so terrible that words cannot describe the stench, and you're not reducing your chances of ending up there, so it's only the logical conclusion that your infinity of giant purple monkeys flying out your ass is far superior.

5th September 2005, 10:42 PM	#1
c4ts Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Your base Posts: 8,427	Pascal's Wager and Elzoob! Either their is a God, or there isn't, and the wager assumes a lot about this God should you wager for it, whatever that may mean. Let us assume that the table runs something like this: Wager for God - God exists: Gain all; God does not exist: status quo Wager against God - God exists: misery; God does not exist: status quo Clearly, the wager does not consider the possibility of a completely random and incomprehensible God, yet either a completely random and incomprehensible God exists, or it doesn't, so the chances are 50/50. Let as look at the adjusted chart: Wager for God - God exists: ???: status quo Wager against God - God exists: ???; God does not exist: status quo. Since Pascal even admits that nothing can be completely known about God, it makes no sense that believing in the specific Christian version should have anything to do with what "wagering" is. If it is what God wants, then what if God wants you to disbelieve in his existence because he's beyond logic? What if he wants you to inhale Tang until your lungs turn orange? What if God wants you to train a bunch of monkeys to shoot lazer beams out of a giant model of George Foreman made entirely out of toothpicks? Your chances of success are a whole lot less than 50/50 if you haven't done any of those things! Based on his arguments, Pascal says to believe is to wager for God. However, adhering to one set of random crap your entire life is going to signifigantly reduce your chances, especially when so many sets already exists. Why not believe an infinite amount of random crap in hopes that one will be right? You've got to cover all your bases! After all, if flipping an infinite number of coins will guarantee at least one will turn up heads, and comitting the gambler's fallacy will have multiple coin flips screwing with your chances of success, why not buy a gigantic cake and hurl it out the car window while shouting "I'm a lizard! Don't kill Leno you can no!" ? After all, belief is doing! Mighty Elzoob's ways are unknown to us, so we must try everything possible and impossible! You might get alphabet soup every day but you never know what the decoder ring is going to look like. So yeah, go to church and all that. Go to church dressed like Michael Jackson collided with Kaga Takeshi and paint yourself turquoise in case Elzoob likes that color, then drink 20 martinis and have sex with linguini. And don't even actually go, send a body double and have him or her say you've changed your name to "Fackford E. Chimberwozzle LXVII" and you live on the moon. It might look crazy, but the math works out okay. After all, if the church is wrong but the color turquoise is right, you've got your bases covered! And what if the God doesn't like it when you do these things? Do a bunch of other random things and it will all balance out in the end. And if there is no God then status quo, whatever that's supposed to mean. It's simple probability. What if Elzoob does not exist, but some other God does? Well, if that God happens to be fond of fashion so bad it makes your mortal eyeballs fall out of your skull and burst open with maggots, you've got your bases covered! Or perhaps it's the God Who Favors Long and Silly Names... you get the picture. And if it's the Aztec Snaky God of Human Sacrifice? There's only so much you can do at once, but you can always sacrifice a whole lot of people the next service. Yes, you can do a great deal of things by following Elzoob's incomprehensible word. Just remember the number 1 rule: you can justify anything if you jump the conclusion that you're right and everyone else is wrong, and ignore other arguments. Now you know the secret to success!
	__________________ Ha ha ha ha.... Stupid signature size limit.

6th September 2005, 04:24 AM	#7
cyborg deus ex machina Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,974	Quote: Originally posted by Iacchus And why do you assume that this is so? Can you be so sure, I mean assume that God doesn't exist? And what makes you assume you have the faintest clue about whether it does or doesn't?
cyborg deus ex machina Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,974

6th September 2005, 05:14 AM	#10
c4ts Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Your base Posts: 8,427	Iacchus, that was satire!
	__________________ Ha ha ha ha.... Stupid signature size limit.

6th September 2005, 06:29 AM	#11
cyborg deus ex machina Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,974	Quote: Originally posted by Iacchus Yep, either God exists or He doesn't exist ... Either your brain exists or it doesn't. Evidence is for the later.
cyborg deus ex machina Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,974

6th September 2005, 07:04 AM	#12
FireGarden Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Spannungsbogen -- without a visa Posts: 5,043	The Flying Spaghetti Monster is not a jealous God. (So there's no point in believing in him) Ditto the Invisible Pink Unicorn, and the Great Taco in the Sky
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6th September 2005, 12:11 AM	#2
Iacchus Suspended Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Oregon, USA Posts: 10,085	Quote: Originally posted by c4ts Either their is a God, or there isn't ... Yep. Quote: ... and the wager assumes a lot about this God should you wager for it, whatever that may mean. Let us assume that the table runs something like this: Let us "not" assume anything ... except that we maintain some sort of morality and charity towards others.

6th September 2005, 02:00 AM	#3
Lothian Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: https://twitter.com/CV4UK Posts: 10,373	Quote: Originally posted by Iacchus Let us "not" assume anything ... except that we maintain some sort of morality and charity towards others. Iacchus, I quite agree with your statement as written, if not as you understand it.

6th September 2005, 03:40 AM	#4
Iacchus Suspended Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Oregon, USA Posts: 10,085	Quote: Originally posted by Lothian Iacchus, I quite agree with your statement as written, if not as you understand it. Well, I personally don't think God is looking for suckups. So in that sense I kind of think it defeats the wager. If, in fact that's what the wager requires you to do.

6th September 2005, 04:04 AM	#5
Lothian Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: https://twitter.com/CV4UK Posts: 10,373	Quote: Originally posted by Iacchus Well, I personally don't think God is looking for suckups. So in that sense I kind of think it defeats the wager. If, in fact that's what the wager requires you to do. I was referring to your statement (which I quoted) not the original one. I am smugly pleased to be proved right as well. I agreed that we should not assume anything knowing quite well that you assume there is a god with no proof whatsoever.

6th September 2005, 04:12 AM	#6
Iacchus Suspended Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Oregon, USA Posts: 10,085	Quote: Originally posted by Lothian I was referring to your statement (which I quoted) not the original one. I am smugly pleased to be proved right as well. I agreed that we should not assume anything knowing quite well that you assume there is a god with no proof whatsoever. And why do you assume that this is so? Can you be so sure, I mean assume that God doesn't exist?

6th September 2005, 04:47 AM	#8
Lothian Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: https://twitter.com/CV4UK Posts: 10,373	Quote: Originally posted by Iacchus And why do you assume that this is so? Can you be so sure, I mean assume that God doesn't exist? Read the thread. I donâ€™t assume god exists or assume he doesnâ€™t. We both said we donâ€™t assume anything, although you appear to be backtracking.

6th September 2005, 04:57 AM	#9
Iacchus Suspended Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Oregon, USA Posts: 10,085	Quote: Originally posted by cyborg And what makes you assume you have the faintest clue about whether it does or doesn't? Yep, either God exists or He doesn't exist ...

6th September 2005, 07:08 AM	#13
bignickel Mad Mod Poet God Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: St. Louis, MO Posts: 2,723	Quote: Originally posted by FireGarden The Flying Spaghetti Monster is not a jealous God. (So there's no point in believing in him) Ditto the Invisible Pink Unicorn, and the Great Taco in the Sky Sounds like someone is defining god(s)...
	__________________ "You can find that book everywhere and the risk is that many people who read it believe that those fairy tales are real. I think I have the responsibility to clear things up to unmask the cheap lies contained in books like that." - Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone

6th September 2005, 07:30 AM	#14
Beerina Sarcastic Conqueror of Notions Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: A floating island above the clouds Posts: 23,835	Re: Pascal's Wager and Elzoob! Quote: Originally posted by c4ts However, adhering to one set of random crap your entire life is going to signifigantly reduce your chances, especially when so many sets already exists. Why not believe an infinite amount of random crap in hopes that one will be right? You've got to cover all your bases! A good point. For a Christian god, it's even worse than that. Christianity itself states that most people even who believe in God are going to Hell. If you haven't confessed your sins, or maybe if you haven't fallen to your knees and had a sudden rush of endorphins while pondering John 3:16, who knows, you will be going to Hell.
	__________________ "Great innovations should not be forced [by way of] slender majorities." - Thomas Jefferson The government should nationalize it! Socialized, single-payer video game development and sales *now!* More, cheaper, better games, right? Right?

6th September 2005, 07:44 AM	#15
Skeptical Greg Agave Wine Connoisseur Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Just past 'Resume Speed' Posts: 12,872	The problem with Pascal's wager, is that it requires that you be able to fool God into thinking that you believe, when you may have doubts.. It makes my head hurt...
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6th September 2005, 09:58 AM	#16
shemp Timothy, Timothy, where on earth did you go? Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: trapped in a cave-in with Joe Posts: 12,884	Since the number of possible deities is infinite, I would have to do infinitely many things in order to please whichever one may really exist. Yet any of these things has a 50-50 chance of pissing off that deity. So I think the best course of action is to do nothing to try to please any deity, because by doing so there is an equal chance that I am sealing my own doom. I shall just continue my usual pastime of letting giant purple monkeys fly out of my ass.

6th September 2005, 10:15 AM	#17
c4ts Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Your base Posts: 8,427	Quote: Originally posted by shemp Since the number of possible deities is infinite, I would have to do infinitely many things in order to please whichever one may really exist. Yet any of these things has a 50-50 chance of pissing off that deity. So I think the best course of action is to do nothing to try to please any deity, because by doing so there is an equal chance that I am sealing my own doom. I shall just continue my usual pastime of letting giant purple monkeys fly out of my ass. But Shemp, you can never win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket! And why buy one when you can buy a billion? If the return is infinite, it doesn't matter how much you spend because you will come out ahead if you win.
	__________________ Ha ha ha ha.... Stupid signature size limit.

6th September 2005, 10:57 AM	#18
shemp Timothy, Timothy, where on earth did you go? Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: trapped in a cave-in with Joe Posts: 12,884	What if the return is NOT infinite? Suppose the afterlife is just another 80 years of this? 80 more years of giant purple monkeys flying out of my ass? I THINK NOT!!!

6th September 2005, 12:39 PM	#19
c4ts Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Your base Posts: 8,427	Quote: Originally posted by shemp What if the return is NOT infinite? Suppose the afterlife is just another 80 years of this? 80 more years of giant purple monkeys flying out of my ass? I THINK NOT!!! All possible integers between 0 and 80 are infinite, therefore 80 = infinite reward, so you have nothing to worry about. What those infinite 80 years will be like is anybody's guess, but if you sit around doing nothing, your infinity COULD be an unimaginably horrible nasty sweaty sumo pit full of whale-like human beings who will press you into jerky, a place so terrible that words cannot describe the stench, and you're not reducing your chances of ending up there, so it's only the logical conclusion that your infinity of giant purple monkeys flying out your ass is far superior.
	__________________ Ha ha ha ha.... Stupid signature size limit.