Should I get rid of my US$ ? (the whole 75 of them)

Flo · 16th March 2006, 08:31 AM

Someone sent me to this site
Where it is predicted that:

Quote:

This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran

I've heard most of the arguments before, but I wonder about this:

Quote:

An Alarm based on 2 verifiable events
The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis, i.e. the United States and Iran:

--> on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ;

--> on the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006 onward [1].

These two decisions constitute altogether the indicators, the causes and the consequences of the historical transition in progress between the order created after World War II and the new international equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the USSR. Their magnitude as much as their simultaneity will catalyse all the tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a decade throughout the international system.

and this:

A

Quote:

world crisis declined in 7 sector-based crises
LEAP/E2020's researchers and analysts thus identified 7 convergent crises that the American and Iranian decisions coming into effect during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a total crisis, affecting the whole planet in the political, economic and financial fields, as well as in the military field most probably too:

1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar
2. Crisis of US financial imbalances
3. Oil crisis
4. Crisis of the American leadership
5. Crisis of the Arabo-Muslim world
6. Global governance crisis
7. European governance crisis

And the cognoscenti's opinion is ?

Dcdrac · 16th March 2006, 08:33 AM

Stay calm

bob_kark · 16th March 2006, 08:36 AM

Have you met our President? Just to let you know, the last time I heard him use the word "economy" was in 2004. He ducked out of habit upon mentioning it. Sell!! Sell!! Sell!!

Flo · 16th March 2006, 08:38 AM

Originally Posted by bob_kark

Have you met our President? Just to let you know, the last time I heard him use the word "economy" was in 2004. He ducked out of habit upon mentioning it. Sell!! Sell!! Sell!!

What ? The whole $75 I brought back from my vacations ? Oh dear, I'm scared, really scared ...

Jorghnassen · 16th March 2006, 09:15 AM

I still have about 400 FF stashed somewhere. Now the question is, are they worth more or less than the $75 US you have?

Grammatron · 16th March 2006, 10:05 AM

They forgat to add that Jesus will return for the judgement day.

rwguinn · 16th March 2006, 10:24 AM

Originally Posted by Flo

What ? The whole $75 I brought back from my vacations ? Oh dear, I'm scared, really scared ...

Send it to me, and I will see that it is properly disposed of....

CFLarsen · 16th March 2006, 10:34 AM

Donate them to JREF.

bob_kark · 16th March 2006, 10:35 AM

Originally Posted by Flo

Oh dear, I'm scared, really scared ...

Yes, that's how I feel everytime I remember who's behind the steering wheel.

geni · 16th March 2006, 10:40 AM

Too many people have too much tied up in the continueing reasonable strength of the dollar for it to fall rapidy.

Zbu · 16th March 2006, 11:59 AM

Not to sound greedy, but if you don't want them, I'd love $20 so I could up my membership at the ACLU. The rest? Donate.

Abdul Alhazred · 16th March 2006, 12:08 PM

No. Send it to me.

There's a curse on your dollars and only I know how to remove it for you.

FreeChile · 16th March 2006, 01:28 PM

Although, I do think that the Iran issue could significantly impact the US economy, the link provided neglected to report the following fact on the M3 highlight.

Quote:

M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits.

Zbu · 16th March 2006, 02:04 PM

Originally Posted by Abdul Alhazred

No. Send it to me.

There's a curse on your dollars and only I know how to remove it for you.

And you just won a lottery you never knew you entered in Nigeria! But sadly, the king who funded it is now dead and we require you to hand over your account number in order to....

a_unique_person · 16th March 2006, 03:08 PM

Well, I just heard on the radio that the US is to open up diplomatic relations (in a small way) with Iraq for the first time since the hostage crises. So maybe it will be resolved peacefully after all.

Mike B. · 16th March 2006, 04:12 PM

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Well, I just heard on the radio that the US is to open up diplomatic relations (in a small way) with Iraq for the first time since the hostage crises. So maybe it will be resolved peacefully after all.

I think you meant Iran, right?

a_unique_person · 16th March 2006, 05:10 PM

Originally Posted by Mike B.

I think you meant Iran, right?

Are you right, or are you right. You are right.

FreeChile · 17th March 2006, 08:22 AM

Quote:

--> on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ;

Just to comment a little bit more on this. This would not really be "the first oil bourse priced in Euros." Iraq had also done this when Sadam was in charge.

Does anyone know what the consequences of that policy was on the US dollar? Is there any analysis out there on that?

Also, now that the US is in charge, does anyone know if the Euro has been maintained or has the US forced the Iraqis to switch back to the dollar?

RandFan · 17th March 2006, 08:35 AM

What difference does it make? We are all going to die.

FreeChile · 17th March 2006, 09:00 AM

I know. But I just wanna make some money before I go.

FreeChile · 17th March 2006, 10:39 AM

Originally Posted by FreeChile

Just to comment a little bit more on this. This would not really be "the first oil bourse priced in Euros." Iraq had also done this when Sadam was in charge.

Does anyone know what the consequences of that policy was on the US dollar? Is there any analysis out there on that?

Also, now that the US is in charge, does anyone know if the Euro has been maintained or has the US forced the Iraqis to switch back to the dollar?

I guess this article answers my own questions. I don't know if any of the information on it is accurate.

How can the dollar collapse in Iran? An explanation
http://www.moneyfiles.org/deruiter01.html

Rob Lister · 17th March 2006, 03:50 PM

Originally Posted by FreeChile

I guess this article answers my own questions. I don't know if any of the information on it is accurate.

How can the dollar collapse in Iran? An explanation
http://www.moneyfiles.org/deruiter01.html

Oh, that was a great website. It was so great I'll post a 'fair use' snippit of it just so our local skeptics can have some fun

From FreeChile's site:

Reasons:
a. The volume and price of the traded oil generally increases. More dollars are needed over time.
b. Thanks to the free trade, many dollars stay in use in international trade outside the US.
c. Many foreign central banks keep dollars as strategic reserves.
d. The US Treasury issues bonds, which, when sold to foreigners, reduces the amount of dollars available abroad.
So, during decades, foreigners always needed more dollars. The US treasury issued extra dollars. And here it becomes very interesting. There is only one way to make these dollars available abroad. Spend them around the world! The US would purchase goods, services, shares, investments etc. But the US never had to deliver anything in return. The foreigners needed these dollars to buy oil. The purchases were just inscribed on the trade balances and the amounts added to the US' foreign debt. For the US, the oil trade works like a fairy credit card. Each time more dollars are needed abroad, this means "free" shopping. Nothing can be done about it.

CapelDodger · 17th March 2006, 04:19 PM

Originally Posted by Dcdrac

Stay calm

And buy diamonds.

CapelDodger · 17th March 2006, 04:21 PM

Originally Posted by RandFan

What difference does it make? We are all going to die.

Speak for yourself.

If I do, I hope to do it in serious debt to people I don't care about. But the plan is not to do it at all. So far so good.

CapelDodger · 17th March 2006, 04:30 PM

Originally Posted by FreeChile

I know. But I just wanna make some money before I go.

My "wanna" has always been about the spending, the making is just a requirement. Borrowing to spend is unnattractive, only to be engaged in when the end's definitely nigh. Earn it, then spend it. Credit is a mug's game.

CapelDodger · 17th March 2006, 04:39 PM

The last week in March 2006 is so much more interesting than 2012 or the hazy "OK, we're screwed" time of global warming. Just two weeks to commit yourself, folks, if that's your bent. Then we open the envelope.

I'm not going to dismiss the idea entirely. There, I've said it.

geni · 17th March 2006, 04:49 PM

Originally Posted by CapelDodger

And buy diamonds.

Only if you think De beers can keep control of that market. Otherwise swiss franks are normaly pretty safe.

CapelDodger · 17th March 2006, 05:02 PM

Originally Posted by FreeChile

I guess this article answers my own questions. I don't know if any of the information on it is accurate.

A lot of it is on the nose. There's a polemical flavour here and there - "free shopping", f'rinstance - but the point about the dollar-delimited oil trade is valid. As dollars flow from the US a proportion ends up in the oil-cycle, much of which has nothing to do with the US. Other dollars are taken into state reserves for strategic reasons - dollar assets are as good as a physical oil reserve, and provide income instead of incurring costs.

In sum, the US is writing cheques and some people aren't cashing them. Yet. If the dollar ceases to be the only large-scale oil-currency those cheques will start to be cashed in.

Will China adjust its currency portfolio when Iran deals in Euros? China gets a lot of oil from Iran. China has a lot in dollars, not so much in Euros. Strategically, selling some dollars for Euros would seem prudent. And a Chinese "some" is everybody else's "lots of".

CapelDodger · 17th March 2006, 05:19 PM

Originally Posted by geni

Only if you think De beers can keep control of that market. Otherwise swiss franks are normaly pretty safe.

Krugerrands are still good, bought at the right time. De Beers nothing, diamonds have always been the value-store of last resort. Gold is too heavy, stamps - how long can that go on?, Swiss Francs are a long way away and subject to the "Sorry? What? You say you're who now?" effect. When the crap hits the fan you need to stones to get you through it.

I'm deeply suspicious of the Swiss. Rising above the fray, they take deposits from both sides of any conflict and keep one. Who's pulling the strings here?

geni · 17th March 2006, 05:27 PM

Originally Posted by CapelDodger

Krugerrands are still good, bought at the right time. De Beers nothing, diamonds have always been the value-store of last resort. Gold is too heavy, stamps - how long can that go on?,

Unless De Beers decide to release their reserves or stop their marketing. Either would result in a massive dent in diamon value.

strathmeyer · 17th March 2006, 05:43 PM

Originally Posted by CapelDodger

And buy diamonds.

Are you serious? Diamonds are a scam. Just because you can buy them for lots of money, doesn't mean that they're worth a lot of money. (Exact semantics: worth = how much you can sell them for.)

If I were going to recommend anything, it would be gold or silver. But seriously, if the we're at a point where the US dollar collapses, perhaps you'll be trading in that gold and silver for guns and food, so by that logic if you're giving up on the US dollar you should stock up on guns and food.

And porn and profolactics.

CapelDodger · 17th March 2006, 05:54 PM

Originally Posted by geni

Unless De Beers decide to release their reserves or stop their marketing. Either would result in a massive dent in diamon value.

There's a lot of ocean out there, and not a massive volume of diamonds. Matters will stabilise, and funnily enough great hoards of diamonds will prove to have been illusory.

strathmeyer · 17th March 2006, 05:59 PM

Originally Posted by CapelDodger

There's a lot of ocean out there, and not a massive volume of diamonds. Matters will stabilise, and funnily enough great hoards of diamonds will prove to have been illusory.

What exactly are you claiming here? That deBeers doesn't control the diamond price? I don't want to put words into your mouth, but I just can't tell what your trying to say. This is a big issue for me, because I think that deBeers is the most evil country in the world, because they actually cause killing in a way unseen in other industries.

luchog · 17th March 2006, 06:36 PM

Originally Posted by CapelDodger

There's a lot of ocean out there, and not a massive volume of diamonds. Matters will stabilise, and funnily enough great hoards of diamonds will prove to have been illusory.

Actually, there are. There was a huge hoard discovered in Russia a few years back, I have a friend who was there at the time. There was a major brouha about how this was finally going to break the back of the DeBeers monopoly and reduce diamond prices to market levels; at least for the mid-sized stones, which were beginning to flood out of the mines. Then DeBeers spent an exhorbitant sum to buy the mines, and the flood immediately turned into a trickle. There were also some problems finding highly-skilled cutters for the stones, since no one in Amsterdam would touch them, for fear of being cut-off by DeBeers (anyone in the industry who does business outside the DeBeers network is immediately and permanently blacklisted); and they were having a lot difficulty finding Indian or Thai cutters who could achieve the requisite quality.

I've seen estimates that, if not for the DeBeers monopoly and their near-complete control over all major diamond source and distribution, the market value would drop by up to half, or even more for under-one-carat stones.

They have worked hand in glove with some of the most repressive governments, promoted apartheid in South Africa, and engaged in some of the most violent repressions of workers that have ever happened in order to maintain their monopoly.

For all the complaining that goes on about the politics of various US corporations, the only corp that I would consider truly evil is DeBeers.

FreeChile · 17th March 2006, 07:36 PM

Originally Posted by CapelDodger

A lot of it is on the nose. There's a polemical flavour here and there - "free shopping", f'rinstance - but the point about the dollar-delimited oil trade is valid. As dollars flow from the US a proportion ends up in the oil-cycle, much of which has nothing to do with the US. Other dollars are taken into state reserves for strategic reasons - dollar assets are as good as a physical oil reserve, and provide income instead of incurring costs.

In sum, the US is writing cheques and some people aren't cashing them. Yet. If the dollar ceases to be the only large-scale oil-currency those cheques will start to be cashed in.

Will China adjust its currency portfolio when Iran deals in Euros? China gets a lot of oil from Iran. China has a lot in dollars, not so much in Euros. Strategically, selling some dollars for Euros would seem prudent. And a Chinese "some" is everybody else's "lots of".

Quote:

from FreeChile link:

c. Many foreign central banks keep dollars as strategic reserves.

I may be wrong and there may be some other logic to this. But that is one part of the report I find most unlikely. That is because any sensible financial institution would keep the money invested and moving to stimulate growth.

Another series problem I had with the report is that I found a related site associated with it (can't remember the name) that was trying to get me to get another complicated report that would advise me on stocks to invest in to make money off the emminent calamity.

FreeChile · 17th March 2006, 08:14 PM

Originally Posted by CapelDodger

Will China adjust its currency portfolio when Iran deals in Euros? China gets a lot of oil from Iran. China has a lot in dollars, not so much in Euros. Strategically, selling some dollars for Euros would seem prudent. And a Chinese "some" is everybody else's "lots of".

The US will try to prevent anyone from switching to that market. I guess that gives us an idea of how serious the whole thing is.

Quote:

Iran Sanctions Bill Wins Approval From House International Relations Panel
Congressional Quarterly
Thursday, March 16, 2006
By Eleanor Stables

A House committee approved an amended version of a bill Wednesday that would impose sanctions on foreign companies and countries that do business with Iran's oil industry while the country is suspected of seeking nuclear weapons.

The International Relations Committee's vote on the Iran sanctions bill (HR 282) was 37-3, with Republicans Jim Leach of Iowa and Ron Paul of Texas and Democrat Earl Blumenauer of Oregon voting no.

...

FreeChile · 17th March 2006, 09:15 PM

Here's the Iran Freedom Support Act in case anyone is interested.

http://wwwc.house.gov/international_...EH_024_XML.PDF

Gurdur · 15th August 2007, 04:27 AM

Originally Posted by strathmeyer

.... because I think that deBeers is the most evil country in the world, because they actually cause killing in a way unseen in other industries.

While De Beers is definitely questionable, despite their lockhold on the Skeleton Coast they're not really a country....

The Painter · 15th August 2007, 04:50 AM

WOW, you searched back a year and a half just to make that comment? How bored are you?

Tildy · 15th August 2007, 05:26 AM

Necromancing. Or cybercrushing.

16th March 2006, 08:31 AM	#1
Flo Master Poster Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Massongy, France Posts: 2,793	Should I get rid of my US$ ? (the whole 75 of them) Someone sent me to this site Where it is predicted that: Quote: This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran I've heard most of the arguments before, but I wonder about this: Quote: An Alarm based on 2 verifiable events The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis, i.e. the United States and Iran: --> on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ; --> on the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006 onward [1]. These two decisions constitute altogether the indicators, the causes and the consequences of the historical transition in progress between the order created after World War II and the new international equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the USSR. Their magnitude as much as their simultaneity will catalyse all the tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a decade throughout the international system. and this: A Quote: world crisis declined in 7 sector-based crises LEAP/E2020's researchers and analysts thus identified 7 convergent crises that the American and Iranian decisions coming into effect during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a total crisis, affecting the whole planet in the political, economic and financial fields, as well as in the military field most probably too: 1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar 2. Crisis of US financial imbalances 3. Oil crisis 4. Crisis of the American leadership 5. Crisis of the Arabo-Muslim world 6. Global governance crisis 7. European governance crisis And the cognoscenti's opinion is ?
	__________________ "Let me explain the order of things for you. There's the aristocracy, the upper class, middle class, working class, dumb animals, waiters, creeping things, head lice, people who eat packet soup, and then you." (Chef)

16th March 2006, 08:33 AM	#2
Dcdrac Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 3,665	Stay calm
Dcdrac Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 3,665

16th March 2006, 08:38 AM	#4
Flo Master Poster Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Massongy, France Posts: 2,793	Originally Posted by bob_kark Have you met our President? Just to let you know, the last time I heard him use the word "economy" was in 2004. He ducked out of habit upon mentioning it. Sell!! Sell!! Sell!! What ? The whole $75 I brought back from my vacations ? Oh dear, I'm scared, really scared ...
	__________________ "Let me explain the order of things for you. There's the aristocracy, the upper class, middle class, working class, dumb animals, waiters, creeping things, head lice, people who eat packet soup, and then you." (Chef)

16th March 2006, 09:15 AM	#5
Jorghnassen Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: The realm of ideas Posts: 3,881	I still have about 400 FF stashed somewhere. Now the question is, are they worth more or less than the $75 US you have?
	__________________ "Help control the local pet population: teach your dog abstinence." -Stephen Colbert "My dad believed laughter is the best medicine. Which is why several of us died of tuberculosis."- Unknown source, heard from Grey Delisle on Rob Paulsen's podcast

16th March 2006, 10:05 AM	#6
Grammatron Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 5,446	They forgat to add that Jesus will return for the judgement day.
Grammatron Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 5,446	__________________ Private Information, Do not read this!

16th March 2006, 08:36 AM	#3
bob_kark Person of Hench Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Globalist H.Q., 25th floor, 5th room on the right. Posts: 4,097	Have you met our President? Just to let you know, the last time I heard him use the word "economy" was in 2004. He ducked out of habit upon mentioning it. Sell!! Sell!! Sell!!

16th March 2006, 10:24 AM	#7
rwguinn Philosopher Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: 16 miles from 7 lakes Posts: 8,416	Originally Posted by Flo What ? The whole $75 I brought back from my vacations ? Oh dear, I'm scared, really scared ... Send it to me, and I will see that it is properly disposed of....
	__________________ "Political correctness is a doctrine,...,which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end." "I pointed out that his argument was wrong in every particular, but he rightfully took me to task for attacking only the weak points." Myriad http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?postid=6853275#post6853275

16th March 2006, 10:34 AM	#8
CFLarsen Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 42,804	Donate them to JREF.
	__________________ SkepticReport.com

16th March 2006, 10:35 AM	#9
bob_kark Person of Hench Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Globalist H.Q., 25th floor, 5th room on the right. Posts: 4,097	Originally Posted by Flo Oh dear, I'm scared, really scared ... Yes, that's how I feel everytime I remember who's behind the steering wheel.

16th March 2006, 10:40 AM	#10
geni Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: UK Posts: 26,555	Too many people have too much tied up in the continueing reasonable strength of the dollar for it to fall rapidy.

16th March 2006, 11:59 AM	#11
Zbu Critical Thinker Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Michigan Posts: 466	Not to sound greedy, but if you don't want them, I'd love $20 so I could up my membership at the ACLU. The rest? Donate.

16th March 2006, 12:08 PM	#12
Abdul Alhazred Yes, that one. Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Chicago Posts: 5,475	No. Send it to me. There's a curse on your dollars and only I know how to remove it for you.
	__________________ The lack of a rational explanation is not evidence for an irrational explanation.

16th March 2006, 01:28 PM	#13
FreeChile Graduate Poster Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Virginia Posts: 1,039	Although, I do think that the Iran issue could significantly impact the US economy, the link provided neglected to report the following fact on the M3 highlight. Quote: M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits.

16th March 2006, 02:04 PM	#14
Zbu Critical Thinker Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Michigan Posts: 466	Originally Posted by Abdul Alhazred No. Send it to me. There's a curse on your dollars and only I know how to remove it for you. And you just won a lottery you never knew you entered in Nigeria! But sadly, the king who funded it is now dead and we require you to hand over your account number in order to....

16th March 2006, 03:08 PM	#15
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Mt Disappointment Posts: 33,315	Well, I just heard on the radio that the US is to open up diplomatic relations (in a small way) with Iraq for the first time since the hostage crises. So maybe it will be resolved peacefully after all.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it. Hobbes

16th March 2006, 04:12 PM	#16
Mike B. Graduate Poster Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 1,186	Originally Posted by a_unique_person Well, I just heard on the radio that the US is to open up diplomatic relations (in a small way) with Iraq for the first time since the hostage crises. So maybe it will be resolved peacefully after all. I think you meant Iran, right?
Mike B. Graduate Poster Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 1,186

16th March 2006, 05:10 PM	#17
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Mt Disappointment Posts: 33,315	Originally Posted by Mike B. I think you meant Iran, right? Are you right, or are you right. You are right.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it. Hobbes

17th March 2006, 08:22 AM	#18
FreeChile Graduate Poster Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Virginia Posts: 1,039	Quote: --> on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ; Just to comment a little bit more on this. This would not really be "the first oil bourse priced in Euros." Iraq had also done this when Sadam was in charge. Does anyone know what the consequences of that policy was on the US dollar? Is there any analysis out there on that? Also, now that the US is in charge, does anyone know if the Euro has been maintained or has the US forced the Iraqis to switch back to the dollar?

17th March 2006, 08:35 AM	#19
RandFan Mormon Atheist Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Southern California Posts: 53,112	What difference does it make? We are all going to die.
	__________________ Ego, ain't it a bitch? It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. --Adam Smith

17th March 2006, 09:00 AM	#20
FreeChile Graduate Poster Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Virginia Posts: 1,039	I know. But I just wanna make some money before I go.

17th March 2006, 10:39 AM	#21
FreeChile Graduate Poster Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Virginia Posts: 1,039	Originally Posted by FreeChile Just to comment a little bit more on this. This would not really be "the first oil bourse priced in Euros." Iraq had also done this when Sadam was in charge. Does anyone know what the consequences of that policy was on the US dollar? Is there any analysis out there on that? Also, now that the US is in charge, does anyone know if the Euro has been maintained or has the US forced the Iraqis to switch back to the dollar? I guess this article answers my own questions. I don't know if any of the information on it is accurate. How can the dollar collapse in Iran? An explanation http://www.moneyfiles.org/deruiter01.html

17th March 2006, 03:50 PM	#22
Rob Lister Suspended Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Virginia Beach, VA Posts: 8,523	Originally Posted by FreeChile I guess this article answers my own questions. I don't know if any of the information on it is accurate. How can the dollar collapse in Iran? An explanation http://www.moneyfiles.org/deruiter01.html Oh, that was a great website. It was so great I'll post a 'fair use' snippit of it just so our local skeptics can have some fun From FreeChile's site: Reasons: a. The volume and price of the traded oil generally increases. More dollars are needed over time. b. Thanks to the free trade, many dollars stay in use in international trade outside the US. c. Many foreign central banks keep dollars as strategic reserves. d. The US Treasury issues bonds, which, when sold to foreigners, reduces the amount of dollars available abroad. So, during decades, foreigners always needed more dollars. The US treasury issued extra dollars. And here it becomes very interesting. There is only one way to make these dollars available abroad. Spend them around the world! The US would purchase goods, services, shares, investments etc. But the US never had to deliver anything in return. The foreigners needed these dollars to buy oil. The purchases were just inscribed on the trade balances and the amounts added to the US' foreign debt. For the US, the oil trade works like a fairy credit card. Each time more dollars are needed abroad, this means "free" shopping. Nothing can be done about it.

17th March 2006, 04:19 PM	#23
CapelDodger Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Cardiff, South Wales Posts: 16,740	Originally Posted by Dcdrac Stay calm And buy diamonds.
	__________________ It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150

17th March 2006, 04:21 PM	#24
CapelDodger Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Cardiff, South Wales Posts: 16,740	Originally Posted by RandFan What difference does it make? We are all going to die. Speak for yourself. If I do, I hope to do it in serious debt to people I don't care about. But the plan is not to do it at all. So far so good.
	__________________ It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150

17th March 2006, 04:30 PM	#25
CapelDodger Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Cardiff, South Wales Posts: 16,740	Originally Posted by FreeChile I know. But I just wanna make some money before I go. My "wanna" has always been about the spending, the making is just a requirement. Borrowing to spend is unnattractive, only to be engaged in when the end's definitely nigh. Earn it, then spend it. Credit is a mug's game.
	__________________ It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150

17th March 2006, 04:39 PM	#26
CapelDodger Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Cardiff, South Wales Posts: 16,740	The last week in March 2006 is so much more interesting than 2012 or the hazy "OK, we're screwed" time of global warming. Just two weeks to commit yourself, folks, if that's your bent. Then we open the envelope. I'm not going to dismiss the idea entirely. There, I've said it.
	__________________ It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150

17th March 2006, 04:49 PM	#27
geni Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: UK Posts: 26,555	Originally Posted by CapelDodger And buy diamonds. Only if you think De beers can keep control of that market. Otherwise swiss franks are normaly pretty safe.

17th March 2006, 05:02 PM	#28
CapelDodger Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Cardiff, South Wales Posts: 16,740	Originally Posted by FreeChile I guess this article answers my own questions. I don't know if any of the information on it is accurate. A lot of it is on the nose. There's a polemical flavour here and there - "free shopping", f'rinstance - but the point about the dollar-delimited oil trade is valid. As dollars flow from the US a proportion ends up in the oil-cycle, much of which has nothing to do with the US. Other dollars are taken into state reserves for strategic reasons - dollar assets are as good as a physical oil reserve, and provide income instead of incurring costs. In sum, the US is writing cheques and some people aren't cashing them. Yet. If the dollar ceases to be the only large-scale oil-currency those cheques will start to be cashed in. Will China adjust its currency portfolio when Iran deals in Euros? China gets a lot of oil from Iran. China has a lot in dollars, not so much in Euros. Strategically, selling some dollars for Euros would seem prudent. And a Chinese "some" is everybody else's "lots of".
	__________________ It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150

17th March 2006, 05:19 PM	#29
CapelDodger Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Cardiff, South Wales Posts: 16,740	Originally Posted by geni Only if you think De beers can keep control of that market. Otherwise swiss franks are normaly pretty safe. Krugerrands are still good, bought at the right time. De Beers nothing, diamonds have always been the value-store of last resort. Gold is too heavy, stamps - how long can that go on?, Swiss Francs are a long way away and subject to the "Sorry? What? You say you're who now?" effect. When the crap hits the fan you need to stones to get you through it. I'm deeply suspicious of the Swiss. Rising above the fray, they take deposits from both sides of any conflict and keep one. Who's pulling the strings here?
	__________________ It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150

17th March 2006, 05:27 PM	#30
geni Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: UK Posts: 26,555	Originally Posted by CapelDodger Krugerrands are still good, bought at the right time. De Beers nothing, diamonds have always been the value-store of last resort. Gold is too heavy, stamps - how long can that go on?, Unless De Beers decide to release their reserves or stop their marketing. Either would result in a massive dent in diamon value.

17th March 2006, 05:43 PM	#31
strathmeyer seriously unable to be serious Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Pittsburgh, PA, USA Posts: 2,382	Originally Posted by CapelDodger And buy diamonds. Are you serious? Diamonds are a scam. Just because you can buy them for lots of money, doesn't mean that they're worth a lot of money. (Exact semantics: worth = how much you can sell them for.) If I were going to recommend anything, it would be gold or silver. But seriously, if the we're at a point where the US dollar collapses, perhaps you'll be trading in that gold and silver for guns and food, so by that logic if you're giving up on the US dollar you should stock up on guns and food. And porn and profolactics.

17th March 2006, 05:54 PM	#32
CapelDodger Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Cardiff, South Wales Posts: 16,740	Originally Posted by geni Unless De Beers decide to release their reserves or stop their marketing. Either would result in a massive dent in diamon value. There's a lot of ocean out there, and not a massive volume of diamonds. Matters will stabilise, and funnily enough great hoards of diamonds will prove to have been illusory.
	__________________ It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150

17th March 2006, 05:59 PM	#33
strathmeyer seriously unable to be serious Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Pittsburgh, PA, USA Posts: 2,382	Originally Posted by CapelDodger There's a lot of ocean out there, and not a massive volume of diamonds. Matters will stabilise, and funnily enough great hoards of diamonds will prove to have been illusory. What exactly are you claiming here? That deBeers doesn't control the diamond price? I don't want to put words into your mouth, but I just can't tell what your trying to say. This is a big issue for me, because I think that deBeers is the most evil country in the world, because they actually cause killing in a way unseen in other industries.

17th March 2006, 06:36 PM	#34
luchog Neo-Post-Retro-Revivalist Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: The Emerald City Posts: 7,957	Originally Posted by CapelDodger There's a lot of ocean out there, and not a massive volume of diamonds. Matters will stabilise, and funnily enough great hoards of diamonds will prove to have been illusory. Actually, there are. There was a huge hoard discovered in Russia a few years back, I have a friend who was there at the time. There was a major brouha about how this was finally going to break the back of the DeBeers monopoly and reduce diamond prices to market levels; at least for the mid-sized stones, which were beginning to flood out of the mines. Then DeBeers spent an exhorbitant sum to buy the mines, and the flood immediately turned into a trickle. There were also some problems finding highly-skilled cutters for the stones, since no one in Amsterdam would touch them, for fear of being cut-off by DeBeers (anyone in the industry who does business outside the DeBeers network is immediately and permanently blacklisted); and they were having a lot difficulty finding Indian or Thai cutters who could achieve the requisite quality. I've seen estimates that, if not for the DeBeers monopoly and their near-complete control over all major diamond source and distribution, the market value would drop by up to half, or even more for under-one-carat stones. They have worked hand in glove with some of the most repressive governments, promoted apartheid in South Africa, and engaged in some of the most violent repressions of workers that have ever happened in order to maintain their monopoly. For all the complaining that goes on about the politics of various US corporations, the only corp that I would consider truly evil is DeBeers.
	__________________ "All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated and well supported in logic and argument than others." -- Douglas Adams "The absence of evidence might indeed not be evidence of absence, but it's a pretty good start." -- PhantomWolf "Let's see the buggers figure that one out." - John Lennon

17th March 2006, 07:36 PM	#35
FreeChile Graduate Poster Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Virginia Posts: 1,039	Originally Posted by CapelDodger A lot of it is on the nose. There's a polemical flavour here and there - "free shopping", f'rinstance - but the point about the dollar-delimited oil trade is valid. As dollars flow from the US a proportion ends up in the oil-cycle, much of which has nothing to do with the US. Other dollars are taken into state reserves for strategic reasons - dollar assets are as good as a physical oil reserve, and provide income instead of incurring costs. In sum, the US is writing cheques and some people aren't cashing them. Yet. If the dollar ceases to be the only large-scale oil-currency those cheques will start to be cashed in. Will China adjust its currency portfolio when Iran deals in Euros? China gets a lot of oil from Iran. China has a lot in dollars, not so much in Euros. Strategically, selling some dollars for Euros would seem prudent. And a Chinese "some" is everybody else's "lots of". Quote: from FreeChile link: c. Many foreign central banks keep dollars as strategic reserves. I may be wrong and there may be some other logic to this. But that is one part of the report I find most unlikely. That is because any sensible financial institution would keep the money invested and moving to stimulate growth. Another series problem I had with the report is that I found a related site associated with it (can't remember the name) that was trying to get me to get another complicated report that would advise me on stocks to invest in to make money off the emminent calamity.