SARS mortality rate estimated 20%

7th May 2003, 09:51 AM

Well, this is depressing

Quote:

The death rate is more than 40% for patients aged 60 or over - but just 13% for those under 60.

from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/2992749.stm

shemp · 7th May 2003, 09:55 AM

So I'm better off if I catch it before I turn 60. The younger you are, the better the chance of survival? I'd better go out and catch it right away!

7th May 2003, 04:58 PM

Here's a more detailed article from the WHO website which says...

Quote:

WHO now estimates that the case fatality ratio of SARS ranges from 0% to 50% depending on the age group affected, with an overall estimate of case fatality of 14% to 15%

and...

Quote:

the case fatality ratio is estimated to be less than 1% in persons aged 24 years or younger, 6% in persons aged 25 to 44 years, 15% in persons aged 45 to 64 years, and greater than 50% in persons aged 65 years and older.

This is consistent with the latest numbers recorded by the WHO which show 495 deaths and 2885 recoveries - about 14.6% fatality ratio.

Though the WHO article discusses the problems involved in calculating an accurate fatality ratio, it doesn't mention an important point that was covered in the BBC article posted by DrBenway...

Quote:

Experts do not yet know whether there have been large numbers of Sars-infected patients who recovered in their homes without ever being admitted to hospital - which would reduce the overall death rate.

WildCat · 7th May 2003, 04:59 PM

I'm skeptical of that 20% statistic. How was it derived? i suspect they only sampled people sick enough to be in the hospital. Many could have had it and not even bothered to go to the doctor.
I say this because it was only a week or two ago that the virus was identified, to get a true estimate of the death rate you would have to test many thousands of the general population, find out how many were exposed to the virus (by analyzing anti-bodies), then figure out how many of those got sick and subsequently died. Until such a study can be carried out it's all speculation.

PygmyPlaidGiraffe · 7th May 2003, 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DrBenway
Well, this is depressing

from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/2992749.stm

unless I missed it , no mention of the survival rate differential in say Hong Kong or a Chinese city versus say Toronto.

Does the quality and access to health care has any bearing on the survival? Early detection and public education on SARS have no bearing?

What is the survival rate in China and how do the limits of a public health response affect survival compared to efforts in Hong Kong or Toronto?

7th May 2003, 09:51 AM	#1
DrBenway Guest Posts: n/a	SARS mortality rate estimated 20% Well, this is depressing Quote: The death rate is more than 40% for patients aged 60 or over - but just 13% for those under 60. from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/2992749.stm
DrBenway Guest Posts: n/a

7th May 2003, 09:55 AM	#2
shemp Timothy, Timothy, where on earth did you go? Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: trapped in a cave-in with Joe Posts: 12,884	So I'm better off if I catch it before I turn 60. The younger you are, the better the chance of survival? I'd better go out and catch it right away!
	__________________ Church on Sunday, sleep and nod Tryin' to duck the wrath of God Preacher's fillin' us with fright Tryin' to tell us what he thinks is right He really got to be some kind of nut (I can't use it!) Tryin' to make it real - compared to what?

7th May 2003, 04:58 PM	#3
JeffR Guest Posts: n/a	Re: SARS mortality rate estimated 20% Here's a more detailed article from the WHO website which says... Quote: WHO now estimates that the case fatality ratio of SARS ranges from 0% to 50% depending on the age group affected, with an overall estimate of case fatality of 14% to 15% and... Quote: the case fatality ratio is estimated to be less than 1% in persons aged 24 years or younger, 6% in persons aged 25 to 44 years, 15% in persons aged 45 to 64 years, and greater than 50% in persons aged 65 years and older. This is consistent with the latest numbers recorded by the WHO which show 495 deaths and 2885 recoveries - about 14.6% fatality ratio. Though the WHO article discusses the problems involved in calculating an accurate fatality ratio, it doesn't mention an important point that was covered in the BBC article posted by DrBenway... Quote: Experts do not yet know whether there have been large numbers of Sars-infected patients who recovered in their homes without ever being admitted to hospital - which would reduce the overall death rate.
JeffR Guest Posts: n/a

7th May 2003, 06:26 PM	#5
PygmyPlaidGiraffe Graduate Poster Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Alberta, Canada Posts: 1,289	Re: SARS mortality rate estimated 20% Quote: Originally posted by DrBenway Well, this is depressing from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/2992749.stm unless I missed it , no mention of the survival rate differential in say Hong Kong or a Chinese city versus say Toronto. Does the quality and access to health care has any bearing on the survival? Early detection and public education on SARS have no bearing? What is the survival rate in China and how do the limits of a public health response affect survival compared to efforts in Hong Kong or Toronto?
	__________________ DÃ©montrer habituellement mon fromage glissant outre de mon biscuit depuis 1976. ruminating artiodactyle ungulate http://www.ultimateungulate.com/index.html

7th May 2003, 04:59 PM	#4
WildCat NWO Master Conspirator Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Albany Park, Chicago Posts: 49,031	I'm skeptical of that 20% statistic. How was it derived? i suspect they only sampled people sick enough to be in the hospital. Many could have had it and not even bothered to go to the doctor. I say this because it was only a week or two ago that the virus was identified, to get a true estimate of the death rate you would have to test many thousands of the general population, find out how many were exposed to the virus (by analyzing anti-bodies), then figure out how many of those got sick and subsequently died. Until such a study can be carried out it's all speculation.