Violence-related injury and the Price of Beer in England and Wales

zakur · 18th April 2006, 06:51 AM

Link

Quote:

This paper examines the influence of the real price of beer on violence-related injuries across the economic regions in England and Wales. The data are monthly frequency of violent-injury collected from a stratified sample of 58 National Health Service Emergency Departments 1995-2000. An econometric model based on economic, socio-demographic and environmental factors was estimated using panel techniques. We show that the rate of violence-related injury is negatively related to the real price beer, as well as economic, sporting and socio-demographic factors. The principal conclusion of the paper is that the regional distribution of the incidence of violent injury is related to the regional distribution of the price of beer. The major policy conclusion is that increased alcohol prices would result in substantially fewer violent injuries and reduced demand on trauma services.

The Don · 18th April 2006, 07:05 AM

This isn't too surprising. The issue with raising alcohol prices is that the only effective way to do so (via tax increases) is, I believe, contrary to European laws regarding tax harmonisation.

wollery · 18th April 2006, 08:46 AM

This is done over areas that are far too large. The North West is judged as one area as a whole, but I've been going out drinking in central Liverpool for years (which has some of the cheapest alcohol in the country) and seen hardly any violence. But I wouldn't dream of going out in Chester where the beer is almost as expensive as it is in central Manchester.

I think that if they took individual cities and towns their results might look less conclusive. They allude to the fact that there are many different trends at work, but seem to gloss over them in favour of the "alcohol is the root of all evil" approach.

Furthermore, alcohol price is linked to all sorts of factors including local rents, licensing costs and local social expectations. People will get drunk regardless of how much the alcohol costs. Whether or not they get violent is, I believe, more affected by social factors.

Rat · 18th April 2006, 09:13 AM

How about increasing the price of alcohol for those who have drunk it and gone on to commit violence? Or do I have have to pay, as ever, for the wrongdoings of others?

Cheers,
Rat.

hodgy · 18th April 2006, 09:29 AM

Irrespective of whether the paper actually shows causation or just correlation there is a more fundemental point which is the question of how much violence is actually the acceptable amount. It may sound like an odd question but its recognising that any level (above zero) is essentially arbitrary. Suppose the current price (due to historical factors) was currently 150% of what it actually is now - the paper would still be drawing the same conclusion.

What gives the authors of the paper the right to make policy recommendations on such an arbitrary basis?

It would be interesting to make an analysis of the paper against the price elasticity of beer. At least that would give us some idea of the degree of correlation versus causation observed.

hodgy · 18th April 2006, 09:36 AM

Originally Posted by Rat

How about increasing the price of alcohol for those who have drunk it and gone on to commit violence? Or do I have have to pay, as ever, for the wrongdoings of others?

Cheers,
Rat.

Agreed - somebody promoting a bit of social engineering at the expense of me (and other law-abiding folk).

Deus Ex Machina · 18th April 2006, 09:40 AM

Originally Posted by Rat

How about increasing the price of alcohol for those who have drunk it and gone on to commit violence? Or do I have have to pay, as ever, for the wrongdoings of others?

Cheers,
Rat.

would you be prepared to pay for a centralized ID system that logs every beer you drink so that you could save tuppence on the price of a pint?

Soapy Sam · 18th April 2006, 03:03 PM

Why don't pubs have loyalty cards, with discounted drinks for steady customers? If coffee shops and airlines can do it...

Rat · 18th April 2006, 03:31 PM

Originally Posted by Deus Ex Machina

would you be prepared to pay for a centralized ID system that logs every beer you drink so that you could save tuppence on the price of a pint?

Two points to make to that:

1) Yes, so long as neither my better half nor my employer has access to this log, and

2) And it should possibly be a little more than tuppence. We already pay more for alcohol than almost any non-Scandinavian country, and some of that is already justified by saying it pays for the increased policing necessary. I don't think the police are really necessary to make sure I don't have a fight with myself after a few beers at home.

Perhaps it may be more practical to just fine and/or imprison those who commit alcohol-related violence. This is no difference to the proposed scheme to tax tape or cd blanks to compensate for piracy; who then compensates my company for the hundreds of cds and dvds we use for backups and whatnot?

Cheers,
Rat.

Lord Muck oGentry · 18th April 2006, 03:44 PM

Must pass on the tip to some of my legal friends:
"...It is true, my lord, that my client was, hrmphh, huckled for tapdancing from Partick X to the Boyd Orr building on a carpet of broken heads, some of which, most regrettably, were sporting diced bunnets at the time. But, my lord, what can one expect with Orkney Skullsplitter at £2.60 a pint?!"

Mongrel · 18th April 2006, 04:21 PM

Originally Posted by Lord Muck oGentry

Must pass on the tip to some of my legal friends:
"...It is true, my lord, that my client was, hrmphh, huckled for tapdancing from Partick X to the Boyd Orr building on a carpet of broken heads, some of which, most regrettably, were sporting diced bunnets at the time. But, my lord, what can one expect with Orkney Skullsplitter at £2.60 a pint?!"

Is that the same brewery who do the marvellous product called 'Brain Damage'?

Lord Muck oGentry · 18th April 2006, 04:37 PM

Originally Posted by Mongrel

Is that the same brewery who do the marvellous product called 'Brain Damage'?

Whit's it tae you, Jimmy?....

Oops, sorry! Yes, absolutely spot on.

18th April 2006, 06:51 AM	#1
zakur Illuminator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Dayton, OH Posts: 3,265	Violence-related injury and the Price of Beer in England and Wales Link Quote: This paper examines the influence of the real price of beer on violence-related injuries across the economic regions in England and Wales. The data are monthly frequency of violent-injury collected from a stratified sample of 58 National Health Service Emergency Departments 1995-2000. An econometric model based on economic, socio-demographic and environmental factors was estimated using panel techniques. We show that the rate of violence-related injury is negatively related to the real price beer, as well as economic, sporting and socio-demographic factors. The principal conclusion of the paper is that the regional distribution of the incidence of violent injury is related to the regional distribution of the price of beer. The major policy conclusion is that increased alcohol prices would result in substantially fewer violent injuries and reduced demand on trauma services.
	__________________ "I do not believe in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance." -Thomas Carlyle "That's the problem these days: nobody thinks of the tumors." -steinhenge

18th April 2006, 08:46 AM	#3
wollery Protected by Samurai Hedgehogs! TLA Winner Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Land of Eternal Hope Posts: 10,316	This is done over areas that are far too large. The North West is judged as one area as a whole, but I've been going out drinking in central Liverpool for years (which has some of the cheapest alcohol in the country) and seen hardly any violence. But I wouldn't dream of going out in Chester where the beer is almost as expensive as it is in central Manchester. I think that if they took individual cities and towns their results might look less conclusive. They allude to the fact that there are many different trends at work, but seem to gloss over them in favour of the "alcohol is the root of all evil" approach. Furthermore, alcohol price is linked to all sorts of factors including local rents, licensing costs and local social expectations. People will get drunk regardless of how much the alcohol costs. Whether or not they get violent is, I believe, more affected by social factors.
	__________________ "You're a sick SOB. You know that, Wollery?" - Roadtoad "Just think how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of them are even stupider!" --George Carlin

18th April 2006, 09:13 AM	#4
Rat Not bored. Never bored. Moderator Join Date: May 2003 Location: Leicester, UK Posts: 7,074	How about increasing the price of alcohol for those who have drunk it and gone on to commit violence? Or do I have have to pay, as ever, for the wrongdoings of others? Cheers, Rat.
	__________________ "Man muß den Menschen vor allem nach seinen Lastern beurteilen. Tugenden können vorgetäuscht sein. Laster sind echt." - Klaus Kinski UKLS 1988- Sitting on the fence throwing stones at both sides.

18th April 2006, 09:29 AM	#5
hodgy Muse Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 945	Irrespective of whether the paper actually shows causation or just correlation there is a more fundemental point which is the question of how much violence is actually the acceptable amount. It may sound like an odd question but its recognising that any level (above zero) is essentially arbitrary. Suppose the current price (due to historical factors) was currently 150% of what it actually is now - the paper would still be drawing the same conclusion. What gives the authors of the paper the right to make policy recommendations on such an arbitrary basis? It would be interesting to make an analysis of the paper against the price elasticity of beer. At least that would give us some idea of the degree of correlation versus causation observed.
hodgy Muse Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 945	__________________ Vestigia Nulla Retrorsum

18th April 2006, 09:36 AM	#6
hodgy Muse Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 945	Originally Posted by Rat How about increasing the price of alcohol for those who have drunk it and gone on to commit violence? Or do I have have to pay, as ever, for the wrongdoings of others? Cheers, Rat. Agreed - somebody promoting a bit of social engineering at the expense of me (and other law-abiding folk).
hodgy Muse Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 945	__________________ Vestigia Nulla Retrorsum

18th April 2006, 07:05 AM	#2
The Don Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Cymru Posts: 8,242	This isn't too surprising. The issue with raising alcohol prices is that the only effective way to do so (via tax increases) is, I believe, contrary to European laws regarding tax harmonisation.

18th April 2006, 09:40 AM	#7
Deus Ex Machina Critical Thinker Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Colorado Posts: 497	Originally Posted by Rat How about increasing the price of alcohol for those who have drunk it and gone on to commit violence? Or do I have have to pay, as ever, for the wrongdoings of others? Cheers, Rat. would you be prepared to pay for a centralized ID system that logs every beer you drink so that you could save tuppence on the price of a pint?

18th April 2006, 03:03 PM	#8
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,885	Why don't pubs have loyalty cards, with discounted drinks for steady customers? If coffee shops and airlines can do it...
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,885

18th April 2006, 03:31 PM	#9
Rat Not bored. Never bored. Moderator Join Date: May 2003 Location: Leicester, UK Posts: 7,074	Originally Posted by Deus Ex Machina would you be prepared to pay for a centralized ID system that logs every beer you drink so that you could save tuppence on the price of a pint? Two points to make to that: 1) Yes, so long as neither my better half nor my employer has access to this log, and 2) And it should possibly be a little more than tuppence. We already pay more for alcohol than almost any non-Scandinavian country, and some of that is already justified by saying it pays for the increased policing necessary. I don't think the police are really necessary to make sure I don't have a fight with myself after a few beers at home. Perhaps it may be more practical to just fine and/or imprison those who commit alcohol-related violence. This is no difference to the proposed scheme to tax tape or cd blanks to compensate for piracy; who then compensates my company for the hundreds of cds and dvds we use for backups and whatnot? Cheers, Rat.
	__________________ "Man muß den Menschen vor allem nach seinen Lastern beurteilen. Tugenden können vorgetäuscht sein. Laster sind echt." - Klaus Kinski UKLS 1988- Sitting on the fence throwing stones at both sides.

18th April 2006, 03:44 PM	#10
Lord Muck oGentry Muse Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 986	Must pass on the tip to some of my legal friends: "...It is true, my lord, that my client was, hrmphh, huckled for tapdancing from Partick X to the Boyd Orr building on a carpet of broken heads, some of which, most regrettably, were sporting diced bunnets at the time. But, my lord, what can one expect with Orkney Skullsplitter at £2.60 a pint?!"
Lord Muck oGentry Muse Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 986

18th April 2006, 04:21 PM	#11
Mongrel Begging for Scraps Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: 20 minutes in the future Posts: 1,640	Originally Posted by Lord Muck oGentry Must pass on the tip to some of my legal friends: "...It is true, my lord, that my client was, hrmphh, huckled for tapdancing from Partick X to the Boyd Orr building on a carpet of broken heads, some of which, most regrettably, were sporting diced bunnets at the time. But, my lord, what can one expect with Orkney Skullsplitter at £2.60 a pint?!" Is that the same brewery who do the marvellous product called 'Brain Damage'?
	__________________ “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, and not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science.” - Charles Darwin ...like so many contemporary philosophers he especially enjoyed giving helpful advice to people who were happier than he was. - Tom Lehrer

18th April 2006, 04:37 PM	#12
Lord Muck oGentry Muse Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 986	Originally Posted by Mongrel Is that the same brewery who do the marvellous product called 'Brain Damage'? Whit's it tae you, Jimmy?.... Oops, sorry! Yes, absolutely spot on.
Lord Muck oGentry Muse Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 986