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#161 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Philadelphia, PA...USA
Posts: 14,482
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__________________
If man came from dust, why is there still dust? |
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#162 |
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Alaska
Posts: 6,798
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Great post, bjb.
Isn't a ballistic missile a much different challenge than an orbital launch? The orbital launch would be a great political coup for North Korea, and I agree that they would be politically wise to do so, but eventually they will need to test ballistic missile targetting.
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There's one thing inherently unfair about the Western intelligence world; their failures are broadcast far and wide by political and ideological foes, but their successes must be kept secret............... |
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#163 |
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Alaska
Posts: 6,798
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#164 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Philadelphia, PA...USA
Posts: 14,482
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"Nothing" was one of your choices, wasn't it?
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The Cold War was an Arms race that brought us to the brink of WWIII. The world didn't come to an end because because our leaders had cooler heads than you. Just because Kim is taking part in an arms race doesn't mean that war is inevitable. |
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If man came from dust, why is there still dust? |
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#165 |
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Alaska
Posts: 6,798
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But it is much different when it comes to people like our troops currently in Iraq.
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And it achieves the goal (elimination or heavy damage of their nuclear ICBM capabilities) without the large loss of our troops, and without a long propaganda war at home with apologists. |
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#166 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,079
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Like I said, that's all I can say. Maybe a different GN&C person would care to comment. Even someone who reads Avation Week could answer your questions but there don't seem to be anyone here who is familiar with the information they have made public over the years.
The engineers just need to fly their rocket and make sure it works as designed. George Bush could stop these tests but the warhead interceptors won't do it for him. He does have other options that do not involve nuclear weapons or an invasion. Maybe something like this? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osirak Notably, Vice President of the United States Dick Cheney specifically referred to the Israeli bombing of the nuclear reactor as protecting American troops during the first, and implicitly, the second Gulf War. |
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#167 |
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Alaska
Posts: 6,798
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Yes, it was.
Does nothing include open, political criticism of the efforts of others without offering an alternative?
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A thermonuclear exchange between the superpowers didn't occur primarily because the stakes were too high, both sides knew it, and both sides were reasonable. Now, with India/Pakistan, Israel/Arab World, and (soon to join the fray) North Korea and Iran, do you think the chances of averting a nuclear exchange is better now, particularly when the superpower's political power over their allies has waned? Just because Kim is taking part in an arms race doesn't mean that war is inevitable. |
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#168 |
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Alaska
Posts: 6,798
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I agree, and have already advocated such a move:
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#169 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Florida
Posts: 6,622
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The only system that exists is kinetic kill. It will probably be impossible to keep the knowledge of a launch secret, but nobody but only the US will have the capability to determine the result, and that part can be kept secret, or lied about.
The Koreans will not be able to monitor the final flight path of a ballistic payload. They launch and will know from the boost phase if it reached the speed and trajectory for the ballistic payload. After that it's gone. Possibly they can transmit from the payload while it's coasting for a while, but I wonder what a few awacs over the Pacific could do to such a signal? |
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#170 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Florida
Posts: 6,622
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#171 |
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Banned
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 26,985
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Agreed.
Now, THAT'S real torture right there. Apart from charging up the peninsula in 1950, running back again, then camping out on the 49th parallel in 1953 and building immense fortifications facing each other, I'd be interested to know what else has been tried to break the impasse. I'm aware there's been assorted spy-raids from NK, but many of those ended up defecting. Details, anyone? With a hammer. ![]() Here's one idea: NK don't build computers themselves (unless they are made from mud or concrete), they steal the parts and technology from the west - it's cheaper and easier by far. So find the conduits and feed them "appropriately modified" technology. Too simple to work? The US did that to the USSR regularly, with good results. ETA: This is probably already being done, so it's not like I'm prescient or anything. |
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#172 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 4,608
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__________________
Bible code: A method for obtaining hidden messages from texts that contains none, for the purpose of predicting events after they happen. "When the facts are on you side, but the law is against you, stress the facts. When the law is on your side, but the facts are against you stress the law. When both the facts and the law is against you, pound the table and yell like hell". Laywer maxim |
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#173 |
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Cannibal
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Looting Fafner's Cave
Posts: 17,556
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__________________
Philanthropist (n.) - Someone who spends his own money to advance his version of Utopia. Socialist (n.) - Someone who spends your money to advance his version of Utopia. |
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#174 |
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Cannibal
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Looting Fafner's Cave
Posts: 17,556
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Bill Clinton's Secretery of Defense and Assistant SecDef have an op-ed today saying we should destroy the missile while it's still on the ground.
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__________________
Philanthropist (n.) - Someone who spends his own money to advance his version of Utopia. Socialist (n.) - Someone who spends your money to advance his version of Utopia. |
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#175 |
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Banned
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 26,985
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A good argument, and quite comfortable to support. And it's much MUCH easier to hit the thing standing on the launch-pad than when it's in flight. Even zapping its launch infrastructure will do, but seeing the rocket itself go poof! would be much more satisfying.
If Kim isn't going to back down and this becomes a feasible alternative, I'd be giving Kim and his crowd a loud-and-clear warning call. Make an international announcement addressed specifically to him that he has 12 hours to pack it up and put it away, or his new toy is rubble. Count on it. A few cruise missiles and... So Kim gets to choose between a humiliating back down to the Americans, or ignoring the warning and pushing on, in the certain knowledge his grand new "bargaining chip" will be destroyed quickly and easily and publicly. Either way, his (pathetic) credibility is put right on the line, especially at home. And to CYA, get UN sanction for the potential action up front. Shouldn't be too hard - Kim hasn't exactly been hiding his WMD, has he. Hey - you could sell tickets to the satellite view of the blast! |
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#176 |
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A broken man on a Halifax pier, the last of Barrett's Privateers
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: About 7 Miles from the Saturn 5B
Posts: 6,533
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Read the piece, BPSCG; and I still think that would be a bad idea.
Many posters, I among them, have posited about the less than rational state of the body politic of North Korea, beginning with the Dear Leader; the article seems to indicate that they would react to an direct attack (for it could be interperted as nothing but) on what they may consider a matter of their national security in a sane, rational matter. That seems to me to be a risky proposition. The article also seems to discount or minimize the reaction of the other 6-party nations to such an attack, particulary S. Korea. A nation that stands to lose tens if not hundreds of thousands of lives in the first hours of a war (if the N. Koreans direct their artillery on Seoul without warning), and which has a history of protests over the US role in S. Korea may not act quite as calmly as the pundits say. And anyone predicting the Chinese reaction to a surprise US attack a couple of hundred miles from their borders probably should still be working for the Government--as soothsayer. Accurately reading other countries reactions to our gambits is something most administrations, and this one in particular, have not done exceptionally well. Last, they (the article writers) are sure that we would defeat any attack by N. Korea handily and within a few weeks/months; and I tend to agree with this, BTW--US and S. Korean military technology is that much better. The operational question is if the N. Korean Military leaders--very insular, brought up on propaganda on the superiority of N. Korea, with little practical knowledge of what the state of the art tools can do--might think they can win--and advise the Politbureau that way-after all, Generals have been known to tell politicians what they want to hear before... Lastly, you are rolling the bones on one shot (albeit you might target more than one cruise missile) that could fail for a variety of reasons (systems failure, jamming, shot down by N. Korean Air Defense-you'll know they'll be on alert) and thus embarrass us with no positive result, something I don't think Bush would risk politically at this time with low ratings and the 2006 elections. Politics and war are much the same thing, as has been stated before (I cannot recall if it was Bismarck or Clauzwitz). What I think will happen is that we will monitor the hell out of the test launch, use it to 'real-world' test our ABM system to the point of launch, and try to recover the nose cone of the missile from whereever it lands in the ocean (if the N. Koreans are smart, they'll target it for the deepest part of the Marianas trench). And we'll use the launch to jawbone our 'partners' in the Group of 6 to add to the pressure on N. Korea. But no more. IMHO as always. |
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If sheer righteous fury could accomplish anything worthwhile, Wolverines would have inherited the Galaxy long ago." -Web DuHavel, David Weber's "Honorverse" Series |
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#177 |
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Cannibal
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Looting Fafner's Cave
Posts: 17,556
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As a student of the U.S. Civil War, you are certainly familiar with Grant's reaction to all the dire predictions about what General Lee was going to do to the Union army: "Next you'll be telling me Lee did a backflip and put his whole army in our rear overnight. Maybe you should be thinking about what we're going to do to Lee, instead."
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__________________
Philanthropist (n.) - Someone who spends his own money to advance his version of Utopia. Socialist (n.) - Someone who spends your money to advance his version of Utopia. |
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#178 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Wits' End
Posts: 21,647
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Let's be fair. The only system that we know exists is kinetic kill. I have no idea what the backroom boys at DARPA have dreamed up, and if I did, I wouldn't be telling the Randi forum about it.
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#179 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 4,608
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__________________
Bible code: A method for obtaining hidden messages from texts that contains none, for the purpose of predicting events after they happen. "When the facts are on you side, but the law is against you, stress the facts. When the law is on your side, but the facts are against you stress the law. When both the facts and the law is against you, pound the table and yell like hell". Laywer maxim |
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#180 |
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Cannibal
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Looting Fafner's Cave
Posts: 17,556
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__________________
Philanthropist (n.) - Someone who spends his own money to advance his version of Utopia. Socialist (n.) - Someone who spends your money to advance his version of Utopia. |
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#182 |
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A broken man on a Halifax pier, the last of Barrett's Privateers
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: About 7 Miles from the Saturn 5B
Posts: 6,533
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And as a fellow student, you know Grant's greatest unacknowledged skill was his abilty to manuever and outfox his opponent into an untenable position rather than his reputation of hitting them head-on...
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Thoughtfully, Hutch |
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If sheer righteous fury could accomplish anything worthwhile, Wolverines would have inherited the Galaxy long ago." -Web DuHavel, David Weber's "Honorverse" Series |
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#183 |
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Cannibal
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Looting Fafner's Cave
Posts: 17,556
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I think we've spilled enough of our own blood and treasure there, on their behalf, during the last 60 years, that we have earned the right to consider our well-being before we consider theirs.
If they believe otherwise, they can always invite us to leave. Of course, that might mean they'd have to start paying for a little more of their own national defense, but if my understanding is correct, most Oriental cultures don't like to be in the position of mendicant.
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My bet as to what would happen: A fifteen-minute news cycle. NK would huff and puff and their hilarious official news agency* would print a couple of furious diatribes, and that would be the end of it. All public record of their ICBM would vanish, 1984-like. They would not launch an attack against SK, because they know that it would be a disaster - at least for the NK military.
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*Warning: Turn off your ActiveX if you're still using IE instead of FireFox; I somehow don't think they're particularly careful about whether or not you'd be getting a virus or something from their web pages. |
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__________________
Philanthropist (n.) - Someone who spends his own money to advance his version of Utopia. Socialist (n.) - Someone who spends your money to advance his version of Utopia. |
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#184 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Florida
Posts: 6,622
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We all know about the Star Wars concepts from years ago. We know what is operational and what is experimental. If you want to speculate that all the current anti missile expense was just a front for the "real" sooper sekret laser systems, be my guest.
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#185 |
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Seeking Honesty and Sanity
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,293
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True enough! We know right where the missile is.
That is quite accommodating of them. True enough! But that is still not quite the same thing as knowing in advance when the missile will be launched. That is not quite so accommodating. I am not so sure about that. They may aim the missile in such a way that it will be conveniently positioned for interception by the US ABM system, but then again they may not do such a thing. That is not very accommodating of them. I do think you getting a bit off track here. While the Korean missile may possibly be fitted with a transponder that they can track, that does not mean that this transponder could be tracked by the US system as well. That is not very accommodating either. In regards to "accommodating", please see above. And I for one am talking about the current situation. |
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A man's best friend is his dogma. |
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#186 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 4,608
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WEll bombing a NK missile is hardly a threat to Chinese National security, I'm not saying they'd be thrilled, but I don't think they'd do anything rash either. If NK invades and US rolls them back to the Chineese border that is likely to be a major probelm to them, but not as I see it just blowing up a missile.
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__________________
Bible code: A method for obtaining hidden messages from texts that contains none, for the purpose of predicting events after they happen. "When the facts are on you side, but the law is against you, stress the facts. When the law is on your side, but the facts are against you stress the law. When both the facts and the law is against you, pound the table and yell like hell". Laywer maxim |
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#187 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 4,608
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__________________
Bible code: A method for obtaining hidden messages from texts that contains none, for the purpose of predicting events after they happen. "When the facts are on you side, but the law is against you, stress the facts. When the law is on your side, but the facts are against you stress the law. When both the facts and the law is against you, pound the table and yell like hell". Laywer maxim |
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#188 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,079
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Castro wanting to start WWIII fits into the 'common knowlege' category, or at least I thought it did. I've heard the story for many years but the best source I have is the documentary "Fog of War". Robert McNamara describes a telephone conversation with Castro where he admits this and adds, "You would have done the same". Of course, McNamara was shocked and horrified and told Castro he was wrong. So much for rational leaders. I recommend that everyone watch this documentary if you get a chance. Some of you think Huntster is an extremist, but apparently, you've never heard of Curtis LeMay. I saw it recently and I learned a lot I didn't know about the bombing of Japan, the cold war, and how we got involved in the Vietnam conflict.
Once again, some of you are showing extreme gaps in your knowlege of US missile defense systems. The airborne laser project (ABL) has been around for quite a while. It is a 747 with a laser attached to its head that can shoot down a missile in its boost phase: http://www.boeing.com/images/video_t...e_200video.jpg and http://www.boeing.com/defense-space/...ips/abl15.html According to the Boeing ABL site, the prototype system completed ground testing in December of last years. I don't see anything on the Boeing site about when the system is supposed to be ready for flight testing though. Visit the site and click around a bit. There's some interesting information on the Boeing site for all you wanna-be strategic defense experts: http://www.boeing.com/defense-space/...abl/index.html I agree that the KKV is our 'only' option because it is the only one that has been deployed. I don't know the status of the ABL tests or when it might be ready for an early test deployment. |
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#189 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Wits' End
Posts: 21,647
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#190 |
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Muse
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 526
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#191 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 3,667
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Didn't Curtis Le May want to go all out nuclear in the cuban Misile crsis and knock out the USSR first?
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#192 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 3,667
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Ihave FOg of War on DVD it is a good watch and very illuminating
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#193 |
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Muse
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 526
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#194 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 3,667
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I have Strangeglove as well it is great, Mr President we must not allow a Mine Shaft gap
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#195 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 3,667
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Mein Fuher I can walk..............
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#196 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 3,667
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General Jack D. Ripper: Mandrake, do you recall what Clemenceau once said about war?
Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: No, I don't think I do, sir, no. General Jack D. Ripper: He said war was too important to be left to the generals. When he said that, 50 years ago, he might have been right. But today, war is too important to be left to politicians. They have neither the time, the training, nor the inclination for strategic thought. I can no longer sit back and allow Communist infiltration, Communist indoctrination, Communist subversion and the international Communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids. |
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#197 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 3,667
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General "Buck" Turgidson: General Ripper called Strategic Air Command headquarters shortly after he issued the go code. I have a phone transcript of that conversation if you'd like me to to read it.
President Merkin Muffley: Read it! General "Buck" Turgidson: Ahem... The Duty Officer asked General Ripper to confirm the fact that he *had* issued the go code, and he said, uh, "Yes gentlemen, they are on their way in, and nobody can bring them back. For the sake of our country, and our way of life, I suggest you get the rest of SAC in after them. Otherwise, we will be totally destroyed by Red retaliation. Uh, my boys will give you the best kind of start, 1400 megatons worth, and you sure as hell won't stop them now, uhuh. Uh, so let's get going, there's no other choice. God willing, we will prevail, in peace and freedom from fear, and in true health, through the purity and essence of our natural... fluids. God bless you all" and he hung up. [beat] General "Buck" Turgidson: Uh, we're, still trying to figure out the meaning of that last phrase, sir. President Merkin Muffley: There's nothing to figure out, General Turgidson. This man is obviously a psychotic. General "Buck" Turgidson: We-he-ell, uh, I'd like to hold off judgement on a thing like that, sir, until all the facts are in. President Merkin Muffley: General Turgidson! When you instituted the human reliability tests, you *assured* me there was *no* possibility of such a thing *ever* occurring! General "Buck" Turgidson: Well, I, uh, don't think it's quite fair to condemn a whole program because of a single slip-up, sir. |
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#198 |
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Muse
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 526
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#199 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 3,667
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#200 |
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Alaska
Posts: 6,798
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