Youth and war, a deadly duo

stocks · 9th January 2007, 07:51 AM

Gangland slayings in the Palestinian territories this week have pitted the Islamist gunmen of Hamas against the secular forces of Fatah. The killings defy civilised norms: in December even children were targeted for murder. But the killings also defy political common sense. Ariel Sharon's wall cuts terrorists off from Israeli targets and what happens? The violence - previously justified with the cause of a Palestinian homeland - continues as if nothing had changed, merely finding its outlet in a new set of targets. This makes it appear that Palestinian violence has never really been about a "cause" at all. The violence is, in a strange way, about itself.

Gunnar Heinsohn, a social scientist and genocide researcher at the University of Bremen, has an explanation for why this might be so. Since its publication in 2003, his eccentric and eye-opening Sons and World Power* (not available in English) has become something of a cult book. In Mr Heinsohn's view, when 15 to 29-year-olds make up more than 30 per cent of the population, violence tends to happen; when large percentages are under 15, violence is often imminent. The "causes" in the name of which that violence is committed can be immaterial. There are 67 countries in the world with such "youth bulges" now and 60 of them are undergoing some kind of civil war or mass killing.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/652fa2f6-9d2...0779e2340.html

Kaylee · 9th January 2007, 08:03 AM

From the link in the OP:

Quote:

Societies with a glut of young men become temperamentally different from "singleton societies" such as Europe's, where the prospect of sending an only child to war is almost unthinkable. Europe's pacifism since 1945, in Mr Heinsohn's view, reflects an inability to wage war, not a disinclination.

Interesting. Pre 1900s, weren't European countries constantly at each other's throats? Especially England and France? World peace, to the extent it exists, probably owes more to the birth control pill than any diplomatic efforts.

Cylinder · 9th January 2007, 08:10 AM

This is Bob Barker reminding you to spay or neuter your Islamist.

Darth Rotor · 9th January 2007, 08:11 AM

Originally Posted by stocks

Gangland slayings in the Palestinian territories this week have pitted the Islamist gunmen of Hamas against the secular forces of Fatah. The killings defy civilised norms: in December even children were targeted for murder. But the killings also defy political common sense. Ariel Sharon's wall cuts terrorists off from Israeli targets and what happens? The violence - previously justified with the cause of a Palestinian homeland - continues as if nothing had changed, merely finding its outlet in a new set of targets. This makes it appear that Palestinian violence has never really been about a "cause" at all. The violence is, in a strange way, about itself.

Gunnar Heinsohn, a social scientist and genocide researcher at the University of Bremen, has an explanation for why this might be so. Since its publication in 2003, his eccentric and eye-opening Sons and World Power* (not available in English) has become something of a cult book. In Mr Heinsohn's view, when 15 to 29-year-olds make up more than 30 per cent of the population, violence tends to happen; when large percentages are under 15, violence is often imminent. The "causes" in the name of which that violence is committed can be immaterial. There are 67 countries in the world with such "youth bulges" now and 60 of them are undergoing some kind of civil war or mass killing.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/652fa2f6-9d2...0779e2340.html

Hmmmmm. The Chinese demographic shift, due to birth rates of sons versus daughters, would under this model argue for either a civil war in China in the next ten to 15 years, or a more bellicose China in its reagion.

DR

Tony · 9th January 2007, 09:15 AM

Originally Posted by Cylinder

This is Bob Barker reminding you to spay or neuter your Islamist.

LOL

Hutch · 9th January 2007, 09:55 AM

Originally Posted by Darth Rotor

Hmmmmm. The Chinese demographic shift, due to birth rates of sons versus daughters, would under this model argue for either a civil war in China in the next ten to 15 years, or a more bellicose China in its reagion.

DR

India also. And don't forget that Iran has a very young (relatively speaking) population.

Interesting times, indeed.

Darth Rotor · 9th January 2007, 07:02 PM

Originally Posted by Hutch

India also. And don't forget that Iran has a very young (relatively speaking) population.

Interesting times, indeed.

Maybe Rangel's draft idea isn't so nutso, or maybe the Weinberger Doctrine needs to be dusted off, and used.

Let 'em play, as it were.

DR

steverino · 9th January 2007, 09:36 PM

Maybe their culture is warlike.

9th January 2007, 07:51 AM	#1
stocks Student Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 27	Youth and war, a deadly duo Gangland slayings in the Palestinian territories this week have pitted the Islamist gunmen of Hamas against the secular forces of Fatah. The killings defy civilised norms: in December even children were targeted for murder. But the killings also defy political common sense. Ariel Sharon's wall cuts terrorists off from Israeli targets and what happens? The violence - previously justified with the cause of a Palestinian homeland - continues as if nothing had changed, merely finding its outlet in a new set of targets. This makes it appear that Palestinian violence has never really been about a "cause" at all. The violence is, in a strange way, about itself. Gunnar Heinsohn, a social scientist and genocide researcher at the University of Bremen, has an explanation for why this might be so. Since its publication in 2003, his eccentric and eye-opening Sons and World Power* (not available in English) has become something of a cult book. In Mr Heinsohn's view, when 15 to 29-year-olds make up more than 30 per cent of the population, violence tends to happen; when large percentages are under 15, violence is often imminent. The "causes" in the name of which that violence is committed can be immaterial. There are 67 countries in the world with such "youth bulges" now and 60 of them are undergoing some kind of civil war or mass killing. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/652fa2f6-9d2...0779e2340.html
stocks Student Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 27

9th January 2007, 08:03 AM	#2
Kaylee Illuminator Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 3,838	From the link in the OP: Quote: Societies with a glut of young men become temperamentally different from "singleton societies" such as Europe's, where the prospect of sending an only child to war is almost unthinkable. Europe's pacifism since 1945, in Mr Heinsohn's view, reflects an inability to wage war, not a disinclination. Interesting. Pre 1900s, weren't European countries constantly at each other's throats? Especially England and France? World peace, to the extent it exists, probably owes more to the birth control pill than any diplomatic efforts.
Kaylee Illuminator Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 3,838	__________________ When everyone think alike, no one thinks very much. -- Walter Lippman''

9th January 2007, 08:10 AM	#3
Cylinder Illuminator Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Arkansas Posts: 3,874	This is Bob Barker reminding you to spay or neuter your Islamist.
	__________________ If you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed ; if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than live as slaves. - Winston Churchill, The Gathering Storm

9th January 2007, 08:11 AM	#4
Darth Rotor Salted Sith Cynic Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Rat cheer Posts: 34,279	Originally Posted by stocks Gangland slayings in the Palestinian territories this week have pitted the Islamist gunmen of Hamas against the secular forces of Fatah. The killings defy civilised norms: in December even children were targeted for murder. But the killings also defy political common sense. Ariel Sharon's wall cuts terrorists off from Israeli targets and what happens? The violence - previously justified with the cause of a Palestinian homeland - continues as if nothing had changed, merely finding its outlet in a new set of targets. This makes it appear that Palestinian violence has never really been about a "cause" at all. The violence is, in a strange way, about itself. Gunnar Heinsohn, a social scientist and genocide researcher at the University of Bremen, has an explanation for why this might be so. Since its publication in 2003, his eccentric and eye-opening Sons and World Power* (not available in English) has become something of a cult book. In Mr Heinsohn's view, when 15 to 29-year-olds make up more than 30 per cent of the population, violence tends to happen; when large percentages are under 15, violence is often imminent. The "causes" in the name of which that violence is committed can be immaterial. There are 67 countries in the world with such "youth bulges" now and 60 of them are undergoing some kind of civil war or mass killing. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/652fa2f6-9d2...0779e2340.html Hmmmmm. The Chinese demographic shift, due to birth rates of sons versus daughters, would under this model argue for either a civil war in China in the next ten to 15 years, or a more bellicose China in its reagion. DR
	__________________ Helicopters don't so much fly as beat the air into submission. "Jesus wept, but did He laugh?"--F.H. Buckley____"There is one thing that was too great for God to show us when He walked upon our earth ... His mirth." --Chesterton__"If the barbarian in us is excised, so is our humanity."--D'rok__ "I only use my gun whenever kindness fails."-- Robert Earl Keen__"Sturgeon spares none.". -- The Marquis

9th January 2007, 09:15 AM	#5
Tony Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Texas Posts: 13,768	Originally Posted by Cylinder This is Bob Barker reminding you to spay or neuter your Islamist. LOL
	__________________ It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. - Aristotle Go to Heaven for the climate, Hell for the company. - Mark Twain

9th January 2007, 09:55 AM	#6
Hutch A broken man on a Halifax pier, the last of Barrett's Privateers Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: About 7 Miles from the Saturn 5B Posts: 6,539	Originally Posted by Darth Rotor Hmmmmm. The Chinese demographic shift, due to birth rates of sons versus daughters, would under this model argue for either a civil war in China in the next ten to 15 years, or a more bellicose China in its reagion. DR India also. And don't forget that Iran has a very young (relatively speaking) population. Interesting times, indeed.
	__________________ If sheer righteous fury could accomplish anything worthwhile, Wolverines would have inherited the Galaxy long ago." -Web DuHavel, David Weber's "Honorverse" Series

9th January 2007, 07:02 PM	#7
Darth Rotor Salted Sith Cynic Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Rat cheer Posts: 34,279	Originally Posted by Hutch India also. And don't forget that Iran has a very young (relatively speaking) population. Interesting times, indeed. Maybe Rangel's draft idea isn't so nutso, or maybe the Weinberger Doctrine needs to be dusted off, and used. Let 'em play, as it were. DR
	__________________ Helicopters don't so much fly as beat the air into submission. "Jesus wept, but did He laugh?"--F.H. Buckley____"There is one thing that was too great for God to show us when He walked upon our earth ... His mirth." --Chesterton__"If the barbarian in us is excised, so is our humanity."--D'rok__ "I only use my gun whenever kindness fails."-- Robert Earl Keen__"Sturgeon spares none.". -- The Marquis

9th January 2007, 09:36 PM	#8
steverino Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Seattle, Washington Posts: 3,688	Maybe their culture is warlike.
	__________________ "Ferchrissakes I am not Jewish..."- Darth Rotor "Well, my nipples are pink. I've never looked at my own butt-hole, but I hope it's pink too." Mycroft "In the military, a gay man might see a wiener, and we all know that when a gay man sees a wiener, he goes into an uncontrollable frenzy of lust."- Marquis de Carabas