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#1 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Surrey BC
Posts: 1,352
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US Voting Patterns
Reading the "Political Bias" thread got me to thinking about US elections and the two-party system. As a Canadian it is my impression (possibly wrong) that the majority of US citizens identify themselves as either republicans of democrats and usually, if not always, vote for their chosen party. As the majority of elections seem to be decided by no more than a few percentage points would it be correct to say that the "party-line" voters largely cancel each other out and that the minority of independent voters who are willing to be swayed by the issues are actually the ones responsible for determining the outcome of the elections?
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Formerly known as dogguy. Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!" |
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#2 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Republic of Massachusetts
Posts: 6,489
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I find there really is no such thing as an independant voter. Just a bunch of scatterbrains who cant make up thier minds. PICK A SIDE AND GO WITH IT!!!!
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"Common sense is something that skeptics can and should do without." -shanek |
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#3 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Seattle, Washington
Posts: 3,688
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__________________
"Ferchrissakes I am not Jewish..."- Darth Rotor "Well, my nipples are pink. I've never looked at my own butt-hole, but I hope it's pink too." Mycroft "In the military, a gay man might see a wiener, and we all know that when a gay man sees a wiener, he goes into an uncontrollable frenzy of lust."- Marquis de Carabas |
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#4 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Republic of Massachusetts
Posts: 6,489
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Is depends what issue we are talking about. Most of the time Im a liberal. I dont think youll find too many people that fit totally into one parties talking points on every issue.
But it drives me nuts when on the eve of election you hear people saying "im undecided." Months of campaining and they cant decide? Geez. Sometimes i think they just like the attention. |
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"Common sense is something that skeptics can and should do without." -shanek |
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#5 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Surrey BC
Posts: 1,352
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Sorry if I appear to "post and run" but work is calling and I will unlikely get back to this discussion today. I am still interested in opinions and will check in when I am able.
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Formerly known as dogguy. Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!" |
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#6 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Texas
Posts: 13,808
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__________________
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. - Aristotle Go to Heaven for the climate, Hell for the company. - Mark Twain |
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#7 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Republic of Massachusetts
Posts: 6,489
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You only vote for independants?
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__________________
"Common sense is something that skeptics can and should do without." -shanek |
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#8 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,285
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I voted straight party once, in college. I haven't since. I think it's common not to, which is why it's not uncommon for governors and senators from the same state to be from different parties. People certainly tend to vote for their party more often, but that's also because hey, if you're mostly going to vote for the other party, you might as well just switch. But I don't think the idea that it's only a small percentage of independents who determine the election is really accurate. Turnout matters quite a bit in US elections, and plenty of people will also just not bother to vote at all if they don't like their party's candidate.
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#9 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: the downunderverse
Posts: 7,114
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#10 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,285
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I think it depends on the state. In my case I had to check every box. In the state where I live now, they used to have a single check box to vote party line, but they got rid of that option recently, which I think is good. If you're too lazy to check multiple boxes, you shouldn't be voting.
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#11 |
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Stinky Cheese Eater
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Sprung from Da Calumet Region
Posts: 2,827
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[derail]
Add to that: -If you're too lazy to make sure you're registered where you plan to vote.... -If you're too lazy to learn how your precinct voting machine works.... -If you're too lazy to even look at the ballot before you enter the voting booth.... -And last, if you're too lazy to ask a poll worker for help, but have enough energy to tell the local "News at Nine" crew that you didn't understand those newfangled machines.... [\derail] |
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The Optimist sees the glass as half full. The Pessimist sees the glass as half empty. The Engineer sees the glass as twice as big as it needs to be. |
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#12 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: In the cold
Posts: 10,802
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The US system is screwed up at its base. Analysing the minor effects which may cause one party or the other of the two available to prevail, is certainly interesting for someone having to endure the lack of choices in this system, but is at most of academic interest for others.
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#13 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,285
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__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#14 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: In the cold
Posts: 10,802
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#15 |
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Salted Sith Cynic
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Rat cheer
Posts: 34,372
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__________________
Helicopters don't so much fly as beat the air into submission. "Jesus wept, but did He laugh?"--F.H. Buckley____"There is one thing that was too great for God to show us when He walked upon our earth ... His mirth." --Chesterton__"If the barbarian in us is excised, so is our humanity."--D'rok__ "I only use my gun whenever kindness fails."-- Robert Earl Keen__"Sturgeon spares none.". -- The Marquis |
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#16 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: In the cold
Posts: 10,802
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#17 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,285
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Does the system prevent new candidates with new ideas from emerging? No, it doesn't. Parties in the US do not serve the same role in the political system that they do in much of Europe, so I'm not sure why you think your objection should matter. And frankly, our track record since the birth of this country demonstrates that the system works pretty well.
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#18 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: the downunderverse
Posts: 7,114
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That is the key point. I think there are a lot of reforms that America should make. But because the system works pretty well, these changes won't be made.
Not changing things that work pretty well is a philosophy that works pretty well, so I don't see that changing either. |
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#19 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 4,790
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About a third of voters are Republican, a third Democratic.
And just what makes you an expert on US politics?
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And what about proportional voting systems? The people at the top of the list get in no matter what. Where's the choice there? It's not "inherently prejudiced", and even if were, why would that be "screwed up"? Why do people just take it for granted that there's something wrong with a two party system? |
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#20 |
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Hipster alien
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: not measurable
Posts: 16,932
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Because there are a lot of people who cannot find a candidate they like in a field of two. I know people who like fiscally conservative policies and socially liberal policies. Others prefer public schools teaching safe sex and gun control laws being loosened. Those people must decide which single issue is the most important and vote for the party that supports that issue.
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__________________
Is the JREF message board training wheels for people who hope to one day troll other message boards? It is not that hard to get us to believe you. We are not the major leagues or even the minor leagues. We are Pee-Wee baseball. If you love striking out 10-year-olds, then you'll love trolling our board. |
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#21 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Surrey BC
Posts: 1,352
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This give me a better perspective, thanks. I had assumed that it was greater than 40% for each
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__________________
Formerly known as dogguy. Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!" |
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#22 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 3,212
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I think a 2 party system forces more change within each party by having to adapt and appeal to the majority. There will always be core voters that never change parties, but the independent voter can come out in force when the pendulum has swung too far one way.
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#23 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 4,790
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It seems to me that this basically comes down to complaining because it's not perfect (and "perfect" is defined as "giving me what I want"). Last presidential election, I considered voting for a third party candidate as a protest vote, but I couldn't find anyone I was willing to support, even in a field of a dozen. Maybe an established third party would offer more acceptable options, but I'm not convinced.
Maybe. I intended a lot of leeway in saying that it's "about" a third. Not everyone who registers for a party really considers themselves a member of that party. There aren't any dues or anything; it's just a matter of what party's primaries you want to vote in. In fact, some people register the opposite of their political position so that they can vote against people they don't like in the primary.
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#24 |
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Muse
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Oregon
Posts: 972
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A couple of points here. First, in the US we have a multi-party system, not a two party system. Anyone is free to form a party, and most places it is fairly easy to get on the ballot. While most national level winners are from one of the top two parties (we have only two third party Senators at the moment), third party winners at the state and local level are more common.
Far from preventing the developement of third parties, the US system seems to encourage them. Both the Democrats and Republicans are third parties, neither having existed at the founding. During the last general election there were (if memory serves) nine parties represented on the Oregon ballot. Robert |
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#25 |
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The Jester
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: The wet coast.
Posts: 8,745
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I assume you're joking. Such a view might be understandable if the two parties were immutable, instead of completely changing leaders every four or eight years.
That being said, it's frightening how many people stick to one party regardless of what its current policies are. I once read an interview with a old voter in Alberta, who said he hated Ralph Klein (until recently the premier of Alberta). But he was voting for him anyway, since he'd always voted Conservative. He'd always voted Conservative because his Daddy'd always voted Conservative, and his Daddy before him, etc. He was greatly offended at the suggestion that he might vote against his family tradition. So he was voting for policies he hated, simply because his great-grandfather didn't like Laurier. Also in Alberta, the Social Credit party (extreme right wing) went from 4th place in the polls to second place, simply by changing their name to the "Alberta Alliance" (to match the name of the "Canadian Alliance" national party). People put far too much faith in names instead of policies. |
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As the size of an explosion increases, the number of social situations it is incapable of resolving approaches zero. -Vaarsuvius It's a rum state of affairs when you feel like punching a jar of mayonnaise in the face. -Charlie Brooker |
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#26 |
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diabolical globalist
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Department of Abandoned Places
Posts: 9,804
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__________________
"My folks touched a lot of kids." - Jerry Sandusky |
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#27 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 4,608
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That's all technically true, but it doesn't change the fact that the United States is a two party system rather than a multiparty system. A two party system means that the political system is overwhelmingly dominated by 2 parties, not that no other parties exist. Just like a bipolar world order means that the world order is dominated by two powers, not that no other countries exist. So the US is a two party system, the Cold War had a bipolar world order.
Are you seriously claiming that because twice (or perhaps a bit more) in the almost 250 years your country has existed a third party has become a dominant party that means that you system encourages it? You got be kidding, Denmark has had as many new parties getting into parliament in my life time and I'm 24. Let's try to keep to the facts, the American system very, very strongly discourages the formation of viable third parties, compared to proportional systems. That is not an opinion that is a fact, well supported by both empirical observations and theory. |
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Bible code: A method for obtaining hidden messages from texts that contains none, for the purpose of predicting events after they happen. "When the facts are on you side, but the law is against you, stress the facts. When the law is on your side, but the facts are against you stress the law. When both the facts and the law is against you, pound the table and yell like hell". Laywer maxim |
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#28 |
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Muse
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Oregon
Posts: 972
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Kerberos,
Accepting your definition of terms your conclusions would not be unreasonable. This illustrates the difficulty in holding a discussion without first establishing the meaning of terms. I do not agree with your definitions, your alleged facts, observations or theories. Robert |
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#29 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 4,608
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The definition is the standard one, as for the theories I must wonder how you can disagree with theories I very much doubt you're familiar with, and concerning the fact I remember I quote I heard once: "Everybody is entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts".
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__________________
Bible code: A method for obtaining hidden messages from texts that contains none, for the purpose of predicting events after they happen. "When the facts are on you side, but the law is against you, stress the facts. When the law is on your side, but the facts are against you stress the law. When both the facts and the law is against you, pound the table and yell like hell". Laywer maxim |
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#30 |
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Muse
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Oregon
Posts: 972
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#31 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 4,608
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But that is what I said, I said "the American system [winner takes all, geographical representation, system] very, very strongly discourages the formation of viable third parties, compared to proportional systems. " I really don't see any substantial difference between that statement and "Proportional representation encourages the formation of more political parties than geographic representation.". Could you explain what you think the difference between the two statements are, because I honestly don't follow you.
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__________________
Bible code: A method for obtaining hidden messages from texts that contains none, for the purpose of predicting events after they happen. "When the facts are on you side, but the law is against you, stress the facts. When the law is on your side, but the facts are against you stress the law. When both the facts and the law is against you, pound the table and yell like hell". Laywer maxim |
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#32 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: In the cold
Posts: 10,802
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#33 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: In the cold
Posts: 10,802
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Have something relevant to say?
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#34 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 4,790
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#36 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: In the cold
Posts: 10,802
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Nope.
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#37 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Surrey BC
Posts: 1,352
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Thanks for this link SezMe. This is exactly what I was wondering in my OP. It looks like my guess at the numbers of registered party members was way higher than reality. The actual number of unaligned voters is very significant. Thanks to everyone for your input. I am now somewhat better informed as to this aspect of politics in the US.
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__________________
Formerly known as dogguy. Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!" |
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#38 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 4,790
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Can you explain that?
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![]() What is "cute" about my response?
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#39 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,285
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Did you not read what I wrote? I wasn't talking about parties. I rather explicitly said candidates and ideas. Does the system prevent the emergence of new candidates and ideas? Does it discourage them from emerging? These are separate questions from whether or not the system discourages new parties, and they are also far more important, as I already indicated. And you haven't answered them in any fashion.
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__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#40 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 4,608
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I don't think that what DD said was unclear, but then I know the system. The way it works is that you vote for a party or a specific candidate. The votes for the party are distributed among the candidates along rules determined by the party. There are basically two way of doing this. Some parties do it as you implied according to a prearranged list, meaning that personal votes don't matter that much unless a low rank candidate gets so many votes that they can be elected on those votes alone (called breaking the list). Other parties however distribute the party vote according to how many personal votes a candidate gets which means that personal votes matter very much. Votes for individual candidates that don't get enough votes to be elected are distributed among his fellow party member according to the same rules as party votes. Is it clear now?
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__________________
Bible code: A method for obtaining hidden messages from texts that contains none, for the purpose of predicting events after they happen. "When the facts are on you side, but the law is against you, stress the facts. When the law is on your side, but the facts are against you stress the law. When both the facts and the law is against you, pound the table and yell like hell". Laywer maxim |
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