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#1 |
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~The Rascal~
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cologne
Posts: 17,369
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I made this comparison in another thread but to clarify it once and for all:
3000 People died on 9/11 and this event is 2089 days ago: 3000 : 2089 = 1.4 _________________________________________________ Now compare and explain why anyone should be afraid about Terrorism in the US or believe any politicians fear-mongering at all: 1.4 people per day die in America because of terrorism since 9/11. 8 young people a day die in alcohol-related crashes. (CSAP, 1996) 115 persons die each day in motor vehicle crashes in the United States. 328 smoker in Britain die each day from smoking-related illnesses. 12,000 children around the globe die per day because starvation. |
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#2 |
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Salted Sith Cynic
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Rat cheer
Posts: 34,225
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How is the starvation (and the rest of that rubbish) used to influence, sway, coerce, or otherwise strong arm people into a political course of action they are generally unwilling to undertake?
Terror attacks are explicitly used to apply force for a political aim, and the threat of force to coerce others into an involuntary course of action. You are trying to compare apples and fleas. People die every day, so what? It is the purpose (and for that matter, means) behind the process that makes a POLITICAL difference. DR |
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Helicopters don't so much fly as beat the air into submission. "Jesus wept, but did He laugh?"--F.H. Buckley____"There is one thing that was too great for God to show us when He walked upon our earth ... His mirth." --Chesterton__"If the barbarian in us is excised, so is our humanity."--D'rok__ "I only use my gun whenever kindness fails."-- Robert Earl Keen__"Sturgeon spares none.". -- The Marquis |
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Master Poster
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 2,074
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Yes, but all we have to do to address their "intent" that is to simply... not change our policies. If we can pull that off, then we should treat terrorism as "just another way people die." To get too caught up in the intent behind actions is just metaphysical nonsense anyway, if the World Trade Center had collapsed because of a freak earthquake, it would have been just as bad for the people directly involved, although admittedly not as bad for the people who were only tangentially involved and watched the disaster on TV. People flying planes into buildings effects people's emotions differently from freak earthquakes, but such emotions are illogical and should not be encouraged to the point of being the basis behind major foreign policy decisions.
Although at the same time, I admit there's some emotions and poor thinking in Oliver's own argument; dividing by the amount of time between September 11th, 2001 and now is an extremely simplistic way to measure the probability of terrorism, and very large fonts are generally a sign of emotional rhetoric, but I have to agree with the basic gist of the argument if not the particulars of its argumentation. |
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Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. -- Hanlon's Razor |
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#4 |
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~The Rascal~
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cologne
Posts: 17,369
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#5 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 12,986
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Oliver, I wonder if you understand the meaning of the word "threat."
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Bowel-shaking earthquakes of doubt and remorse assail him and wail him with monster truck force. - Cake, The Distance Was there a second singer on the grassy Knowles? - Stephen Colbert |
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#6 |
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Tinkering with my brain
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: L.A. area
Posts: 1,723
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It's political, and it doesn't make logical sense. I think the problem is you don't understand politics...
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 3,212
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Master Poster
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Largo, FL
Posts: 2,833
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#10 |
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~The Rascal~
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cologne
Posts: 17,369
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I understand it, but if the possibility to die on lung-cancer as a smoker, heart disease or accidents in general is at least 100 times higher than to die in a terrorist attack, I guess this shows pretty clearly what's a threat and what not, doesn't it?
I guess that a terrorist attack is statistically pretty much at the bottom of the mortality risks. There is no reason to hype it the way we heard in the past. And especially there is no reason to get up any freedoms because of that, is there? |
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#11 |
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Salted Sith Cynic
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Rat cheer
Posts: 34,225
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Prior to WTC 1993, and of course WTC 2001, you would have had to divide a car accident statistic by zero to make a comparison, and thus get a nonsensical answer, much as your post is nonsensical. Yet oddly enough, due to the problem of drunk driving, the US decreased the number of people killed on the highways from drunk accidents, per capita, from 1970 to 2000.
In 1970, about 66000 people per year died in car wrecks, with about 45,000 of those being from alcohol related causes. (Population about 200,000,000) Recent stats: About 50,000 people die per year in car wrecks, and about 35,000 of them from alcohol. (Population about 300,000,000) Given the opportunity and risk, which is every time you drive, times drivers, about 100,000,000, times 365 days of the year, modified by a safety factor, you will find that your point won't scale when you look at the proportional mismatch between opportunity, 4, and dead, 3000, for the 911 attacks. The agency, the cause, of the risk is different, and thus the threat, and risk assessment, is different. You also presume that all terror attacks will fit the 9-11 template. Bad assumption. What's funny is: I found the hype and hand wringing, the garment rending after 9-11 to be contemptible. In that you and I sorta agree. My personal view was "Fargin' Ice Holes, let's go find who was behind this, kill them, and then kill their entire extended families." DR |
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Helicopters don't so much fly as beat the air into submission. "Jesus wept, but did He laugh?"--F.H. Buckley____"There is one thing that was too great for God to show us when He walked upon our earth ... His mirth." --Chesterton__"If the barbarian in us is excised, so is our humanity."--D'rok__ "I only use my gun whenever kindness fails."-- Robert Earl Keen__"Sturgeon spares none.". -- The Marquis |
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#12 |
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~The Rascal~
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cologne
Posts: 17,369
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#13 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 3,212
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#14 |
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Cannibal
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Looting Fafner's Cave
Posts: 17,556
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And from April, 1973 to 1992, nobody was killed by terrorists at the WTC, for an average of zero persons per decade. Obviously, the threat had ended even before 1993.
Okay, obviously not. Oliver, if you graph the above numbers, you will approximate a parabola, indicating that the threat from terrorism is increasing exponentially. Amazing what you can prove if you minimize your number of data points. |
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Philanthropist (n.) - Someone who spends his own money to advance his version of Utopia. Socialist (n.) - Someone who spends your money to advance his version of Utopia. |
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#15 |
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Banned
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Montréal
Posts: 25,831
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#16 |
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~The Rascal~
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cologne
Posts: 17,369
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Now since the cockpit doors are safe and there are very strictly controls on airports, how big is the threat? I mean it's your taxes and freedoms, not mine. A dirty Bomb would probably kill less then 50 people. Another nuclear threat is a problem for the CIA. No need to wiretap you, is there? |
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#17 |
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~The Rascal~
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cologne
Posts: 17,369
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#18 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 3,212
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#19 |
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Master Poster
Join Date: May 2007
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 2,853
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#20 |
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Banned
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Montréal
Posts: 25,831
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#21 |
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Salted Sith Cynic
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Rat cheer
Posts: 34,225
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Helicopters don't so much fly as beat the air into submission. "Jesus wept, but did He laugh?"--F.H. Buckley____"There is one thing that was too great for God to show us when He walked upon our earth ... His mirth." --Chesterton__"If the barbarian in us is excised, so is our humanity."--D'rok__ "I only use my gun whenever kindness fails."-- Robert Earl Keen__"Sturgeon spares none.". -- The Marquis |
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#22 |
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~The Rascal~
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cologne
Posts: 17,369
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Okay, you won. Literally I said it in the Header - but you know what I mean. And? How many Candians died because of Ahmed Ressam? And because you live in Canada. Which laws had been improved or legislated to catch him? I mean, do you have a patriot-, homeland security- and military commission act, too? |
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#23 |
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Banned
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Montréal
Posts: 25,831
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#24 |
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~The Rascal~
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cologne
Posts: 17,369
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No, it's not. Think about the probabilities for another attack and then think about if all the acts that are limiting your freedoms did make you safer. And then think about if anything politicians say in their campaigns will make you safer. Maybe I misunderstand you but you're either promoting the propaganda some politicians use -or- you're just trying to find arguments to counter my points without debunking them with hard facts about why anyone should be afraid. What is it? Why should people be afraid about terror in your opinion?
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#25 |
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~The Rascal~
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cologne
Posts: 17,369
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#27 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,178
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A million years from now, the 3000 people who died on 9/11 will amount to only 8 micropersons per day.
A car crashed a 8:57 PM last night, killing the driver. At 8:58 last night, that car accident had killed a whopping 1440 people per day. Math is fun! I've been over this in other threads. A well-quantified risk with known costs for its reduction is not equivalent to a fundamentally unknowable risk whose reduction we cannot measure. And the death totals alone aren't a good metric. Aside from the associated property damage and economic impact (half a trillion dollars, roughly, in the case of 9/11), the fact is that concentrated casualties are more damaging to society than spread-out ones, because the damage to social networks is not linear with the number of casualties. That's why we don't still have Pals Battalions. |
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#28 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 3,212
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#29 |
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~The Rascal~
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cologne
Posts: 17,369
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#30 |
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Cythraul Enfys
Join Date: May 2006
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#31 |
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~The Rascal~
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cologne
Posts: 17,369
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That doesn't impress me at all - unless you can proof that there were lesser terror plots before 9/11. Maybe you just recognize these things because people and the media started to spend attention to terrorism after 9/11? Find a similar list for 2000 or any year before the Terror-Hype that proofs that the terror threat increased.
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#32 |
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Banned
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Montréal
Posts: 25,831
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#33 |
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Muse
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 832
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Darth,
I have always found your arguments to be reasonble and rational though we often diasgree on the premises or the values that necessarily underpine them. But this post has me totally puzzled. Here is what I think you are saying: 1. Terrorism is designed to coerce people into a political action that they would otherwise not take. 2. Therefore, we cannot respond to the threat of terrorism the same way that we do to other threats. 3. I believe we respond rationally to other threats such as accidental deaths, disease, natural disasters, and well, maybe not gun deaths. How is number 2 different from being coerced into a political action that we would not otherwise take? Are you suggesting that the correct response to terrorism to throw out logic and react emotionally? IXP |
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"When reason sleeps, monsters are produced" -- Goya, title of etching that is my avatar |
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#34 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,178
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Uh, no. I didn't say anything resembling any of that. Are you really that clueless about what I meant?
Quote:
That's a joke, BTW. When used as a verb, "proof" means something different than "prove". |
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#35 |
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~The Rascal~
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cologne
Posts: 17,369
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#36 |
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~The Rascal~
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cologne
Posts: 17,369
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Sorry for any spelling error. Basically you seem to be afraid of a phantom, meaning that somehow someone could somewhere at some time do something that scares you. Sorry, but this sounds paranoid to me - and please note that I didn't say I believe you're paranoid. So why do you support Terror-Politicians and limitations in your Freedoms? You didn't address these points so far. |
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#37 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 12,986
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It's nice that you know a little about statistics, but we're working with a vanishingly small sample size with terrorist attacks as compared to lung cancer and heart desease. Consider this: What was the terrorist threat, statistically speaking, on Sept 10, 2001? Pretty damn nil, by your calculation. Was there a threat, or were the events of the next day something else altogether? |
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Bowel-shaking earthquakes of doubt and remorse assail him and wail him with monster truck force. - Cake, The Distance Was there a second singer on the grassy Knowles? - Stephen Colbert |
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#39 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,178
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Yeah, well, it isn't. What things sound like to you is rather irrelevant to me. And your inability to take a threat seriously has no bearing on whether or not the threat is serious.
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#40 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: St. Louis, Mo.
Posts: 9,519
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I think that the fear of terrorism, like the fear of being raped or murdered, is all out of proportion to the actual threat. That being said, this sort fear of attack by shadowy outside forces is a very powerful thing, and perhaps more so in our relatively attack-free country.
Being in law enforcement, it's long been apparent that the individual citizen's fear of criminal attack is vastly unjustified, and news of such incidents always get a very strong reaction in the media. Nonetheless, very few would be willing to live without what they perceive as a functional criminal-justice system. Carried on up to the level of the country as a whole, the 9/11 sort of attack is completely unsupportable in the minds of most. No appeal to statistical likelihood of death-by-terrorist is liable to allay such fears. I completely disagree with the Bush administration's assertion that we are "fighting them over there so we don't have to fight them here." The people we are fighting in Iraq have little or nothing to do with the Al Qaeda agenda of attacks against the West for their perceived grievances. Were we to leave Iraq tomorrow, these grievances would remain unaddressed and the threat of further attacks would remain. |
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