Piers Corbyn predicts UK weather for August

[Diamond]

I put this here without comment as to what its validity is. Piers managed to predict the two flooding events in July to within a day, but it could be a fluke.

Yesterday, I received August's predictions:

Quote:

CHANGES from the 8 month & 45day forecasts: Mostly minor; possibility of tropical Storm remnants is new.

AUGUST 2007 30d detail issued 31st July 07. See notes for changes from first forecast issued 8month ahead.

Unusually wet, with hail thunder. Serious risk of flooding again at
all or most of recently affected areas and serious risk of floods in
Lower Thames /London.

Severe (Brit Is) weather warnings: Notably wet or very wet spells, thunderstorms, floods, hail and enhanced tornado risk:
5th–9/10th, 14th-15th 18th-23rd 27th-29th (5-9/10 &18-23 = highest threat). Trop Storm remnants also poss 18-23rd & 27-29th.

Weekends AUGUST 2007: Fridays & Saturdays generally better than others.

For Weekend & Sporting weather see page 5

Tropical Storm (Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf) and NW Pacific Typhoon Formation High risk periods (Trial forecasts):
Aug 6 -9th Typhoon; 11 – 14th Trop Storm; 19-22nd Trop St poss Atlantic heading N to BI, Typhoon; 27-30th Trop St & Typhoon.

AUGUST 2007. Active Low pressures including poss tropical storm remnants at times come from the West and track through Britain. Partial blocking by
higher pressure on continent at times gives periods of very heavy rain. Thundery Lows come from South at times. Nights generally not cold until later when frosts are likely in the North. Jet stream mostly to South of normal - the same solar-driven shift also causing weather extremes in other parts of World.

Overalls: Rainfall: In the 4 wettest Augusts for 100 years in many parts. Scotland less wet. Temps: Overall mostly below normal (by day) in England and Wales.
NorthEast / Central England coolest. Scotland warmer than other parts relative to normal. Sunshine: Cloudy except Scotland.

Confidence: The general scenario confidence of summer months 2007 is June B, July AB, Aug A.

For the following dates, Piers enhances the forecast like this:

5-9/10 AUG

Quote:

Very wet, widespread
floods. Major Thunder &
damaging hailstorms -
Locally windy. Cool.
An exceptional summer rain event.
Rain could include Tropical storm
remnants. Some places are likely to
have 2inches of rain in one day and
reach their normal monthly rainfall by
the end of this period.
Enhanced tornado risk - High
Aurora likely.

10/1110-12 Aug.

Quote:

Mostly Dry in
Scotland /Nth. Humid,
thunder, rain, floods in South.
Flood problems in Southern England/
Midlands. Shallow thundery Lows
coming from South extensive rain.
13-15 Aug. V wet, more floods,
prob less wet in Scotland.
New deep low and sub-lows from West
cross Britain.
Enhanced tornado risk - High
Aurora likely.-15 AUG

18-23 AUG

Quote:

Very wet. Locally strong winds,
floods especially in North and
West. Major Thunderstorms
and hail. Cool. (EA Top level, a
second exceptional summer rain
event in the month)
Some places are likely to have or 2
inches of rain in one day. Tropical storm
remnants 30% likely in this period.
A deep Low crosses Britain from the
West with thundery sublows likely.
Enhanced tornado risk - High
Aurora likely.

Piers gives the probability of these predictions being correct in the following way:

Quote:

Likely success rate of the 8 time windows this month is about 7 successful and 1 unsuccessful.

His prediction for the whole of August for the UK is as follows:

Quote:

Comparitive information from AUG 07
Overalls for LR forecast issued 8 month ahead in
DEC 2006 (SWT21s):
Rainfall: V wet. One of the 5 wettest Augusts
for 100 years in many parts.
Temps: Overall cool in all parts, particularly by
day relative to normal. Frosts likely in Scotland at
times.
Sunshine: Cloudy.

Now I've reproduced only three of the eight time windows, but they are the ones given with the highest likelihood of success.

As I say, I reproduce them without comment. We shall see what we shall see.

[Rolfe]

I hope to God he's wrong. I'm fed up with cold and rain, and I'm having to tell myself real hard that this is not normal for Scotland this time of year, and that if I hadn't come home I still wouldn't be sunning myself beside the maple tree in my Sussex garden.

Send us some summer, Heather!

Rolfe.

[Diamond]

15th August, The Times (of London):

Quote:

Depression over Britain signals end of summer

Competitors head out at the start of the Fastnet Race before weather forced more than half to pull out

Gales and colossal seas have left only a third of the fleet still taking part in one of yachting’s toughest races as forecasters predict torrential rain for much of Britain.

While homeowners braced themselves for more severe weather, the field in the biennial Fastnet race was severely depleted after 44 mph winds and steep seas took their toll.

Just as it seemed as though summer had finally turned up, a wet and windy depression was sweeping Britain and threatening to trigger an early pattern of autumnal weather. Temperatures are forecast to drop below average for the rest of the month, and it seems unlikely that there will be anything for the rest of the summer to compare with the highest temperature of the year so far of 30C (86F), recorded on August 5.

Yesterday Bournemouth had half a month’s rain in a few hours, and was battered by 40mph winds. The Environment Agency has raised the prospect of flood warnings in coastal areas and on rivers. Some places are expected to have more than two inches of rain today. Nigel Bolton, at the Met Office, said: “There could be flash flooding. Inland, gusts of wind of up to 40mph are expected, and winds of up to 45mph around southern coasts.” Flood watches were in force at Christchurch Harbour in the South and Bridlington on the North Sea coast.

Not an exact match and Piers was out a few days. There was a persistent ridge of high pressure for the first 10 days of August. Then the weather changed.

We'll see how the rest of August pans out.

[Cuddles]

Originally Posted by Diamond

Piers managed to predict the two flooding events in July to within a day, but it could be a fluke.

Evidence? I've heard of his new predictions, but this is the first time I've heard anyone claim to have predicted the July floods.

As far as I can tell he's got it wrong so far this month.

[andyandy]

let's see

Diamond, global warming sceptic
Piers corbyn, global warming sceptic

surely there's no third rail here

i wonder if you consider Piers' ability to predict a wet summer in the UK in any way validation for not thinking climate change is anthropogenic?

for the record, i predict several days of rain, frequent drizzle, blustery winds and a drop in temperature over September.

[mummymonkey]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I hope to God he's wrong. I'm fed up with cold and rain, and I'm having to tell myself real hard that this is not normal for Scotland this time of year, and that if I hadn't come home I still wouldn't be sunning myself beside the maple tree in my Sussex garden.

Are you sitting down ...

[andyandy]

Originally Posted by mummymonkey

Are you sitting down ...

are you implying rolfe is a cow?

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Originally Posted by andyandy

are you implying rolfe is a cow?

I say obviously not. 'Cause if he was, he would be a she and we would have to tip her over.

[brodski]

Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto

I say obviously not. 'Cause if he was, he would be a she and we would have to tip her over.

Um, she is a she.

[mhaze]

Originally Posted by andyandy

let's see

Diamond, global warming sceptic
Piers corbyn, global warming sceptic

surely there's no third rail here

i wonder if you consider Piers' ability to predict a wet summer in the UK in any way validation for not thinking climate change is anthropogenic?

I don't see a connection.

Anyone is welcome to try to make accurate long range weather predictions, aren't they?

[Professor Yaffle]

A couple of weeks ago Corbyn said that the summer was definitely over and there would be no "Indian Summer" this year, and the met office were saying there was still a possibility of some fine weather to come at the end of the summer.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,2148804,00.html

Well we have been having some lovely weather for the last week, where we are...

[Beausoleil]

Originally Posted by Diamond

15th August, The Times (of London):



Not an exact match and Piers was out a few days. There was a persistent ridge of high pressure for the first 10 days of August. Then the weather changed.

We'll see how the rest of August pans out.

One way of doing an interesting comparison would be to test his prediction against the last 100 Augusts, and see what fraction matched it better than this August.

As it is, the test is a little arbitrary.

(I don't care enough to go to the effort myself, but if you are interested that's one way of tackling it.)

[andyandy]

Originally Posted by brodski

Um, she is a she.

so she is a cow?

[Soapy Sam]

Originally Posted by andyandy

so she is a cow?

No, but she has been known to do things to cows.

On the grounds she might not stop at humans, I think now might be a good time to flee to the hills.

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Originally Posted by brodski

Um, she is a she.

Oh.

In that case, nevermind.

Moo.

[a_unique_person]

In reference to the OP, the only way to make this mean anything is to actually set up a methodology, and test it, like the million dollar test.

[mummymonkey]

Originally Posted by Soapy Sam

... I think now might be a good time to flee to the hills.

Only if you wrap up well.

[Rolfe]

Oh, come on, it's not as bad as all that!

Moooooooooo!

Rolfe.

[mhaze]

Originally Posted by Diamond

I put this here without comment as to what its validity is. Piers managed to predict the two flooding events in July to within a day, but it could be a fluke.


For the following dates, Piers enhances the forecast like this:

5-9/10 AUG

Very wet, widespread floods. Major Thunder & damaging hailstorms - Locally windy. Cool. An exceptional summer rain event. Rain could include Tropical storm remnants. Some places are likely to have 2inches of rain in one day and reach their normal monthly rainfall by the end of this period. Enhanced tornado risk - High Aurora likely.

10/1110-12 Aug.

Mostly Dry in Scotland /Nth. Humid, thunder, rain, floods in South. Flood problems in Southern England Midlands. Shallow thundery Lows coming from South extensive rain. 13-15 Aug. V wet, more floods, prob less wet in Scotland. New deep low and sub-lows from West cross Britain. Enhanced tornado risk - HighAurora likely.-15 AUG

18-23 AUG

Very wet. Locally strong winds, floods especially in North and
West. Major Thunderstorms and hail. Cool. (EA Top level, a second exceptional summer rain event in the month) Some places are likely to have or 2 inches of rain in one day. Tropical storm remnants 30% likely in this period. A deep Low crosses Britain from the West with thundery sublows likely. Enhanced tornado risk - High Aurora likely.

His prediction for the whole of August for the UK is as follows:

Comparitive information from AUG 07
Overalls for LR forecast issued 8 month ahead in DEC 2006 (SWT21s):
Rainfall: V wet. One of the 5 wettest Augusts for 100 years in many parts.
Temps: Overall cool in all parts, particularly by day relative to normal. Frosts likely in Scotland at times. Sunshine: Cloudy.

Now I've reproduced only three of the eight time windows, but they are the ones given with the highest likelihood of success.

As I say, I reproduce them without comment. We shall see what we shall see.

Corbin on Lockwood
News 13th July from WeatherAction the Long Range Forecasters

“The Global warmers have played their last card. Professor Lockwood’s attack on solar activity as a driver of Climate is a two-legged stool”

Piers Corbyn astrophysicist, speaking on BBC Radio 5 and BBC TV News24 TV on 11 July, attacked Prof Mike Lockwood for his ridiculous claims of evidence that solar activity did not drive climate change and described Lockwood’s recent paper as “old news re-presented in a profoundly misleading manner”.

On Radio 5 he slammed Prof Lockwood and other protagonists of man-made Global warming for describing light variations from the sun as ’solar activity’ when the correct understanding of the term is the Sun’s particle and magnetic effects. “This changing of the meaning of words is typical of state-sponsored faith systems and Professor Lockwood should be ashamed of himself” he said, as Professor Lockwood tried to shout over him.

Piers pointed out that the solar particle activity based forecasting system he uses had for example correctly predicted (and also announced at the Institute of Physics on 7th June) the period of intense heavy rain and flooding 24th-26th June and he taunted Prof Lockwood with the question “What did you forecast, Professor?”

How did Corbin do for August?

[baron]

Originally Posted by mhaze

How did Corbin do for August?

From someone living in the North West of the UK:

Very wet.
No. One day of rain.

Locally strong winds
No

floods especially in North and West
None at all

. Major Thunderstorms and hail.
Not one thunderstorm. No hail.

Cool.
Compared to what? Cooler than average but generally warmer than the rest of the month.

(EA Top level, a second exceptional summer rain event in the month)
What?

Some places are likely to have or 2 inches of rain in one day.
Are they? Not here.

Tropical storm remnants 30% likely in this period.
And that's a prediction... how? But no, we didn't have any tropical storm remnants.

A deep Low crosses Britain from the West with thundery sublows likely.
What in hell is a sublow? It isn't English.

Enhanced tornado risk
Really? We didn't have one.

High Aurora likely.
What is a High Aurora? An experimental jet fighter? No, we didn't see any of those either.

All in all, he didn't do too well - 0/11

[CapelDodger]

Can we have September's predictions now?

The thread title is a tad misleading. "Predictions for" rather than "predicts" would be clearer I think.

So a new thread entitles "Piers Corbyn's UK Weather Predictions for September" would be appreciated as soon as you get them.

Perhaps you could add your own prediction of how accurate they'll be? His August predictions were a complete bust; he basically failed to predict typical August weather. Which has been a relief, by the way. July was positively alarming.

[CapelDodger]

Quote:

On Radio 5 he slammed Prof Lockwood and other protagonists of man-made Global warming for describing light variations from the sun as ’solar activity’ when the correct understanding of the term is the Sun’s particle and magnetic effects. “This changing of the meaning of words is typical of state-sponsored faith systems and Professor Lockwood should be ashamed of himself” he said, as Professor Lockwood tried to shout over him.

Piers pointed out that the solar particle activity based forecasting system he uses had for example correctly predicted (and also announced at the Institute of Physics on 7th June) the period of intense heavy rain and flooding 24th-26th June and he taunted Prof Lockwood with the question “What did you forecast, Professor?”

I think this gives a flavour of the ranting wingnut. "State-sponsored faith system" is a dead give-away.

The irritating thing, of course, is that he probably won't be on Radio Five any time soon being taunted about his August predictions.

[CapelDodger]

Originally Posted by baron

From someone living in the North West of the UK:

And why not?

Quote:

What is a High Aurora?

It's a visual effect of Nepalese dope. I didn't see any of that during August either, sadly.

[Blue Bubble]

Originally Posted by baron

From someone living in the North West of the UK:

Very wet.
No. One day of rain.

Locally strong winds
No

Hmmm... I'm a bit surprised there. I'm pretty sure that the North West of the UK was indeed pretty wet, certainly with more than one day of rain.

Surely you don't mean the North West of England, most of which would be regarded as being in the southern half of the UK ? Surely not ...

[CapelDodger]

Originally Posted by mhaze

I don't see a connection.

Diamond is deeply engaged with AGW (and the denial thereof). Piers Corbyn is one of his poster-boys. Corbyn was right about July and Diamond got a stiffy from it.

Quote:

Anyone is welcome to try to make accurate long range weather predictions, aren't they?

To quote your quote :

Quote:

“The Global warmers have played their last card. Professor Lockwood’s attack on solar activity as a driver of Climate is a two-legged stool”

Not what I'd call a weather prediction. But very much what Diamond wants to hear. And would like a wide audience to hear.

I hope the connection is clearer now.

[mhaze]

Originally Posted by CapelDodger

Diamond is deeply engaged with AGW (and the denial thereof). Piers Corbyn is one of his poster-boys. Corbyn was right about July

I hope the connection is clearer now.

Very much so, thanks. Too bad Corbin didn't do too well, though. I was hoping your Met could use him to help in their three year propaganda forecasts on weather.

[baron]

Originally Posted by Blue Bubble

Hmmm... I'm a bit surprised there. I'm pretty sure that the North West of the UK was indeed pretty wet, certainly with more than one day of rain.

Surely you don't mean the North West of England, most of which would be regarded as being in the southern half of the UK ? Surely not ...

Nope, Cumbria, which is most definitely in the North West. He refers to Scotland as "Scotland", so no confusion there.

[Blue Bubble]

Originally Posted by baron

Nope, Cumbria, which is most definitely in the North West. He refers to Scotland as "Scotland", so no confusion there.

Ah, just as I thought, not the North West of the UK. In fact the middle of the UK. You very clearly referred to the UK. Baron, you're an ignorant moron.

[brodski]

Originally Posted by Blue Bubble

Ah, just as I thought, not the North West of the UK. In fact the middle of the UK. You very clearly referred to the UK. Baron, you're an ignorant moron.

Actually no, given all the bits of the UK wich are not in the Brittish Isles, the middle of the UK is actually somewhere in france, pretty much the whole of Great Brittian is in the north west.

I'll try and dig out the trhead which we worked thsi out in.

[andyandy]

Quote:

Ah, just as I thought, not the North West of the UK. In fact the middle of the UK. You very clearly referred to the UK. Baron, you're an ignorant moron.

that's a bit harsh....

I'm not sure about including dependent nations, but even with just including Shetland and Rockall, (map)

which according to CIA are included within the UK, the north west of the UK would be somewhere out over Ireland, or the Atlantic....

[baron]

Originally Posted by Blue Bubble

Ah, just as I thought, not the North West of the UK. In fact the middle of the UK. You very clearly referred to the UK. Baron, you're an ignorant moron.

Cumbria is in the North West. End of story. And abuse from shandy-drinking southern woofters isn't something that concerns us Northerners

[Rolfe]

At the risk of prolonging a sterile argument, nobody's arguing that it's in the north west. The question is, the north west of what?

Obviously, the north west of England. Nice place, England. Some of my best friends live there. However, it's not synonymous with "the UK". In case you hadn't noticed, it's the fact that there are other things united in there that give rise to the term "UK".

The offending phrase was "north west of the UK", which it patently isn't, unless you're one of these people who think that England is the UK and the UK is England. Some people get very narked at these people.

Rolfe.