Threatening Petroeuro?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Tailgater

In defense of danielk, he has a point. While I find the discussion about the effects of the dollar and the euro interesting, the fact that you disguise the discussion as another "what caused the Iraq war" thread to be woo and borderline deserving of being in the CT forum.

Could you confirm that my assumption is correct so far (See the last posts from me)?

And concerning the Woo-Factor. You unfortunately have to proof that it's woo. After that, I will ask to move it there - even if the folks there will just ignore Economical Issues and send it back to politics. Shall we bet?

[danielk]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Your "Forscherdrang [Eng?]" for a skeptics-forum is astounding.

"Forscherdrang" can be translated as "scientific curiosity" according to LEO.

Originally Posted by Oliver

I'm interested in this issue. It's a political issue. It's a perfect topic for skeptics.

Just skip the topic if it's not interesting for you.

Oliver, that's not the point. The topic is interesting to me, too. But what's more interesting to me, as an armchair psychologist, is the question why you so desperately cling to completely unproven and vague assumptions about various subjects. My guess, which is substantiated by the evidence of your behavior on this forum, is that you behave that way in order to be able to maintain your image of a evil and sinister morally inferior USA (compared to Europe). To me, it appears that you're looking for gaps to squeeze your ideology in.

[Darth Rotor]

Originally Posted by Damien Evans

Reported.

I checked the list of sub forums, and the Nut-Job-Subforum does not seem to exist. Oliver once again has missed out on some facts, eh? Beerina seems to have scored a "gotcha" without using recipes, nor kitten pictures.

Originally Posted by Tailgater

In defense of danielk, he has a point. While I find the discussion about the effects of the dollar and the euro interesting, the fact that you disguise the discussion as another "what caused the Iraq war" thread to be woo and borderline deserving of being in the CT forum.

Indeed, and perhaps even deserving of existence on said Nut-Job Subforum: but I am being redundant, of course.

DR

[Tailgater]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Could you confirm that my assumption is correct so far (See the last posts from me)?

Could you quote your assumption. I don't know what you are saying.

Quote:

And concerning the Woo-Factor. You unfortunately have to proof that it's woo. After that, I will ask to move it there - even if the folks there will just ignore Economical Issues and send it back to politics. Shall we bet?

You want me to prove a CT rumor is woo?

From what I've read so far, it would take a lot more than stomping on one country changing to euro to have a significant effect on the dollar. As with most CTs, we have to see what happens from here to know for sure. Your OP, as with many, is a two part question.

Are there US interests in keeping the dollar in Iraq? yes

Enough to go to war? I don't think so unless we see them invading every other country that changes.

Is saying the reason the US invaded Iraq was to keep the dollar there a CT? Completely. Although it might be considered a bonus.

[Oliver]

Are you stuttering, Darth?

Anyway: I asked before - Do you know something about economics, Petro Dollars, Dollars and other woo?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Tailgater

Could you quote your assumption. I don't know what you are saying.

You want me to prove a CT rumor is woo?

From what I've read so far, it would take a lot more than stomping on one country changing to euro to have a significant effect on the dollar. As with most CTs, we have to see what happens from here to know for sure. Your OP, as with many, is a two part question.

Are there US interests in keeping the dollar in Iraq? yes

Enough to go to war? I don't think so unless we see them invading every other country that changes.

Is saying the reason the US invaded Iraq was to keep the dollar there a CT? Completely. Although it might be considered a bonus.

I'm sure that an inflation is a threat for an economy. But I don't know if China dumping it's Dollar-Reserves would lead to a Dollar-Crash.

Would it?

The assumption was:

Quote:

It isn't 1:1. That's the problem and the reason why the Dollar lost 90% of it's value since the sixties. And I don't know if the problem is the same in other countries. The exclusivity of the Dollar is that while it is the most used currency for in- and export - and every Nation who wants to buy Oil, also needs lots amounts of Dollars, the US has to print new money to fill the Dollar-needs of these countries.

Now printing the new money doesn't produce any equivalent for the new money and so the Dollar value itself is falling. And this means that while the US is exporting with it's own Dollars and importing using Dollars that lost a small amount of it's value, they are actually able to import more for "one Dollar" than they "have to export" for "one Dollar".

At least this is how I understood this issue so far.

[danielk]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Do you know something about economics, Petro Dollars, Dollars and other woo?

That is not the woo.

Originally Posted by Oliver

But it's a very interesting Issue - and who knows: Maybe it was a major reason to invade.

That is the woo.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by danielk

That is not the woo.

That is the woo.

I came to this forum for one reason: "Loose Change, second Edition".
Because I believed it could be true.

Now guess what - I don't believe in anything in it anymore, not one scintilla. Thanks to logic and JREF.

Now stop tweaking my nose and derailing the thread with your believes [*] unless you can proof that it isn't woo.

[Tailgater]

Originally Posted by Oliver

I'm sure that an inflation is a threat for an economy. But I don't know if China dumping it's Dollar-Reserves would lead to a Dollar-Crash.

Would it?

The assumption was:

China dumping dollars would be like a suicide bomber IMO. I've heard alot of Americans say China is going to destroy the economy by doing this and I have a hard time buying it. Unless China finds someone who consumes as many exports as the US to fill the void, they would not do such a thing unless they were simply determined to wreck themselves.


As far as the assumption, It's not that simple and I would rather read up on it or pass it to someone who can better answer due to dwindling time constraints.

[Tailgater]

Originally Posted by Oliver

And concerning the Woo-Factor. You unfortunately have to proof that it's woo.

Quote:

Now stop tweaking my nose and derailing the thread with your believes[*] unless you can proof that it isn't woo.

Which one are we supposed to prove?

[danielk]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Now stop tweaking my nose and derailing the thread with your believes *] unless you can proof that it isn't woo.

No Oliver. When it comes to establishing a link between a possible economic incentive and going to war, the burden of proof is upon you.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Tailgater

China dumping dollars would be like a suicide bomber IMO. I've heard alot of Americans say China is going to destroy the economy by doing this and I have a hard time buying it. Unless China finds someone who consumes as many exports as the US to fill the void, they would not do such a thing unless they were simply determined to wreck themselves.

As far as the assumption, It's not that simple and I would rather read up on it or pass it to someone who can better answer due to dwindling time constraints.

If I remember correctly from the articles I've read, China is already switching to Yen and Euro and therefore reducing their Dollar-Stock. This is also the case concerning the Oil trade with Iran.

Now if Iran doesn't support the Dollar anymore in the future - and China is also gaining from this change. Isn't it China who poses a threat? I mean it looks like they are getting the Worlds next Superpower with their current rate of economical increase.

Which leads me to the question: What would be the outcome if the US would stop the trade of Oil between Iran and China?

I know - I'm playing a little bit of Chess here - but that's how the Global Powers play in their struggle to keep their stronghold over others.

[Tailgater]

Originally Posted by Oliver

If I remember correctly from the articles I've read, China is already switching to Yen and Euro and therefore reducing their Dollar-Stock. This is also the case concerning the Oil trade with Iran.

Now if Iran doesn't support the Dollar anymore in the future - and China is also gaining from this change. Isn't it China who poses a threat? I mean it looks like they are getting the Worlds next Superpower with their current rate of economical increase.

Which leads me to the question: What would be the outcome if the US would stop the trade of Oil between Iran and China?

I know - I'm playing a little bit of Chess here - but that's how the Global Powers play in their struggle to keep their stronghold over others.

I don't know about China switching. If you could post these articles, it would help. Whatever China does, It does not benefit them to hurt the currency of a huge trade partner. If they are unloading the dollar reserves, I would think they would do so with great care.

[Tailgater]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Which leads me to the question: What would be the outcome if the US would stop the trade of Oil between Iran and China?

I'm not sure how this could be done without openly going to war with China, which is really stretching this theory of protecting the dollar with the US military.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Tailgater

I don't know about China switching. If you could post these articles, it would help. Whatever China does, It does not benefit them to hurt the currency of a huge trade partner. If they are unloading the dollar reserves, I would think they would do so with great care.

There are many articles about this issue:
http://www.google.com/search?source=...=Google+Search

Here's an excerpt from one I picked randomly (AsiaTimes):

Quote:

Attack on the US dollar

One of the pillars propping up US superpower status and worldwide economic dominance is the dollar being accepted as the predominant reserve currency. Central banks of various countries have to stock up dollar reserves because they can only buy their oil requirements and other major commodities in US dollars.

This US economic strength, however, is a double-edged sword and can turn out to be America's economic Achilles' heel. A run of the US dollar, for instance, which would cause a dollar free-fall, can bring the entire US economy toppling down. What is frightening for the US is the fact that China, Russia and Iran possess the power to cause a run on the US dollar and force its collapse.

China is now the biggest holder of foreign exchange reserves in the world, accumulating $941 billion as of June 30 and expected to exceed a trillion dollars by the end of 2006 - a first in world history. A decision by China to shift a major portion of its reserve to the euro or the yen or gold could trigger other central banks to follow suit. Nobody would want to be left behind holding a bagfull of dollars rapidly turning worthless. The herd psychology would be very difficult to control in this case because national economic survival would be at stake.

Source:http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/HJ19Ad01.html

Now if this doesn't sound like a threat - then I don't know what would.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Tailgater

I'm not sure how this could be done without openly going to war with China, which is really stretching this theory of protecting the dollar with the US military.

The US or China could invade Iran to stop the Oil-Flow towards the global opponent. But I don't know the results of such an invasion. I also don't know if the Oil-Flow changed in Iraq - meaning that the Oil was "adjusted" towards "friendly" nations.

[Tailgater]

Originally Posted by Oliver

There are many articles about this issue:
http://www.google.com/search?source=...=Google+Search

Here's an excerpt from one I picked randomly (AsiaTimes):




Now if this doesn't sound like a threat - then I don't know what would.

http://www.starmass.com/en/china_export_countries.htm

Take a look at the top countries China exports to. They could kill the dollar, but would they want to?

[Grammatron]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Stop kidding. It's a widespread thesis and it isn't debunked.

Sure, if you ignore every fact presented in this thread it's completely not debunked.

You don't understand economics, it's ok, it's not for everyone.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Tailgater

http://www.starmass.com/en/china_export_countries.htm

Take a look at the top countries China exports to. They could kill the dollar, but would they want to?

Who says that China wouldn't want to be the worlds superpower? And who says that Russia and Iran wouldn't prefer China or themselves [Russia] in Terms of the Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend.

That's unpredictable for outsiders unless you're following the signs of such global strategies.

I will keep searching for the current Status of the Chinese Dollar-Stock. The article I've read was on a German News-Page.

And concerning your article: I know that the Export is also a big Issue and I have no Idea if a Nation would risk this Branch. After all - it's a big hurdle for such a decision.

@Grammatron: Read on. We left this behind already.

[Tailgater]

Originally Posted by Oliver

The US or China could invade Iran to stop the Oil-Flow towards the global opponent. But I don't know the results of such an invasion. I also don't know if the Oil-Flow changed in Iraq - meaning that the Oil was "adjusted" towards "friendly" nations.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922041.html

Those are 2004 stats, but I can't see them being too far off other than China and India moving up in consumption.

I think it would hurt everyone to mess with the flow at all. Oil is affected globally, not just who one country gives too. Germany and Japan look to be the top 2 consumers without being able to produce their own oil. If an "oil war" truly broke out, production and reserves of each country would come in to play.

Wow, are we heading down a long derail or what?

[Oliver]

Here are the latest news about "Dollar, China, Iran, Euro":

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&um...nG=Search+News

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Tailgater

I think it would hurt everyone to mess with the flow at all. Oil is affected globally, not just who one country gives too. Germany and Japan look to be the top 2 consumers without being able to produce their own oil. If an "oil war" truly broke out, production and reserves of each country would come in to play.

Wow, are we heading down a long derail or what?

It's a super-interesting Issue - even more than blaming the US for Iraq (). But kidding aside - this would also make a cool topic within the conspiracy Theory forum.

Now concerning the Oil Flow: I'm not that sure if China would cut off Europe as a whole if they would make the decision to ruin the Dollar. And I don't know who could do something about it. But that the Dollar is the United States Achilles heel, seems to be the sad fact in this issue.

So I guess you understand why I included the possibility that Iran and Iraq may have something to do with all of that. It's not absurd for those who understand a little bit more concerning these Issues, is it?

[Tailgater]

Originally Posted by Oliver

It's a super-interesting Issue - even more than blaming the US for Iraq (). But kidding aside - this would also make a cool topic within the conspiracy Theory forum.

Now concerning the Oil Flow: I'm not that sure if China would cut off Europe as a whole if they would make the decision to ruin the Dollar. And I don't know who could do something about it. But that the Dollar is the United States Achilles heel, seems to be the sad fact in this issue.

So I guess you understand why I included the possibility that Iran and Iraq may have something to do with all of that. It's not absurd for those who understand a little bit more concerning these Issues, is it?

I added a link to post 100 if you didn't see it. Thought you might find it interesting. Yes, it is interesting discussing strategies of the world with you when you are not so focused on one country. I think we have shown that there is concern globally about the dollar, but not enough to mortgage our economy for generations supporting a war over one country switching to euros. I'm off to real life things like my kids.

Have a good weekend.

[Oliver]

I don't know anything about the sources credibility since they already have a strange name. (Besides naming Bloomberg as source)

Quote:

Japan Drops Dollar to Buy Iran’s Oil

Iran has asked Japanese oil refiners to pay for all future deliveries in yen, as opposed to dollars, according to a letter obtained by Bloomberg News.

Central banks in South Korea, China and Taiwan have all announced plans to diversify away from the dollar. Last year Russia, Syria and Italy also said they intended to reduce their dollar holdings.

Source: http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?...rticle&id=3436

ETA: Okeley Dokeley: Have fun on your weekend with the Kids.

[jsiv]

Isn't it obvious that China can't "ruin the dollar" since their entire economy depends on it?

It certainly doesn't follow that China would emerge as the world's superpower after pulling that stunt. They are entirely dependant on us doing well in order to survive.

I don't know what the future has in store for China, but they're going to have to change a lot if they are to join western society. The cheap labor,and reverse engineering/cloning of products will have to go -- and those are a huge part of their economy.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by jsiv

Isn't it obvious that China can't "ruin the dollar" since their entire economy depends on it?

It certainly doesn't follow that China would emerge as the world's superpower after pulling that stunt. They are entirely dependant on us doing well in order to survive.

I don't know what the future has in store for China, but they're going to have to change a lot if they are to join western society. The cheap labor,and reverse engineering/cloning of products will have to go -- and those are a huge part of their economy.

According to what I've read so far, China will be the next superpower anyway soon with their economical increase and they also lend money to the US.

The US isn't the only export-partner, so such a stunt to ruin the Dollar, wouldn't ruin them, too. But I agree - it might hurt for a while.

And concerning "western society". I doubt that they would have to care about this issue - being the new "Western World".

[jsiv]

Originally Posted by Oliver

According to what I've read so far, China will be the next superpower anyway soon with their economical increase and they also lend money to the US.

The US isn't the only export-partner, so such a stunt to ruin the Dollar, wouldn't ruin them, too. But I agree - it might hurt for a while.

And concerning "western society". I doubt that they would have to care about this issue - being the new "Western World".

The issue is why their economy is doing so well.Their economy is based on unethical practices and being able to undercut the competition, and that is something that will get harder and harder to do. As their economy grows stronger and the standard of living higher, they will gradually lose that edge over the West.

That is of course unless they manage to find other ways of competing, which they might, but I still think they're going to run into problems.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by jsiv

The issue is why their economy is doing so well.Their economy is based on unethical practices and being able to undercut the competition, and that is something that will get harder and harder to do. As their economy grows stronger and the standard of living higher, they will gradually lose that edge over the West.

That is of course unless they manage to find other ways of competing, which they might, but I still think they're going to run into problems.

I agree - it is indeed a reason for their success. But even if you're concerned about that - why should they be concerned or care about it? Maybe this will happen automatically during reforms in the future.

And once they have earned enough money to allow themselves to "throw some of it out of the window" because they're swimming in Money - what or who would hinder them to dump the Dollar together with Iran and Russia?

Neither Russia, Iran nor China are the world leaders concerning human rights, are they?

[Grammatron]

Originally Posted by Oliver

I
And once they have earned enough money to allow themselves to "throw some of it out of the window" because they're swimming in Money - what or who would hinder them to dump the Dollar together with Iran and Russia?

Explain what "dumping dollar" means.

[jsiv]

Originally Posted by Oliver

I agree - it is indeed a reason for their success. But even if you're concerned about that - why should they be concerned or care about it?

Why should China care about its future? What a strange question.

I don't know, same reason Norway should be concerned about what happens once the oil runs out, I suppose.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Grammatron

Explain what "dumping dollar" means.

I posted it some posts ago - but dumping the Dollar means this:

Quote:

Attack on the US dollar

One of the pillars propping up US superpower status and worldwide economic dominance is the dollar being accepted as the predominant reserve currency. Central banks of various countries have to stock up dollar reserves because they can only buy their oil requirements and other major commodities in US dollars.

This US economic strength, however, is a double-edged sword and can turn out to be America's economic Achilles' heel. A run of the US dollar, for instance, which would cause a dollar free-fall, can bring the entire US economy toppling down. What is frightening for the US is the fact that China, Russia and Iran possess the power to cause a run on the US dollar and force its collapse.

China is now the biggest holder of foreign exchange reserves in the world, accumulating $941 billion as of June 30 and expected to exceed a trillion dollars by the end of 2006 - a first in world history. A decision by China to shift a major portion of its reserve to the euro or the yen or gold could trigger other central banks to follow suit. Nobody would want to be left behind holding a bagfull of dollars rapidly turning worthless. The herd psychology would be very difficult to control in this case because national economic survival would be at stake.

Source:http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/HJ19Ad01.html

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by jsiv

Why should China care about its future? What a strange question.

I don't know, same reason Norway should be concerned about what happens once the oil runs out, I suppose.

I'm not talking about "Why should China care about their future concerning exports" - I'm rather talking about "Why shouldn't China care about it's Future and make themselves the new superpower - making their own rules".

I know this sounds futuristic. But once China has enough economical power to compress the Impact of the Dollar-Collapse - why should they care at all? They can still trade with anyone else on the planet - even if the US society/trade is down.

[danielk]

Originally Posted by Oliver

I posted it some posts ago - but dumping the Dollar means this:

OK, I finished skimming through the article. The alarmist tone of the part you bolded doesn't stand out, since the whole article is a gleeful contemplation orgy of possible ways the "arrogant" superpower USA might get hurt. What is missing is a coherent argument to support the wild speculations of the author - all I can see are assertions that this or that is going to happen. Do you have a more substantial source supporting these claims?

[Grammatron]

Ok Oliver, let's say China decided, tomorrow, to sell off all their dollars for Euros.

Who will buy the dollars?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by danielk

OK, I finished skimming through the article. The alarmist tone of the part you bolded doesn't stand out, since the whole article is a gleeful contemplation orgy of possible ways the "arrogant" superpower USA might get hurt. What is missing is a coherent argument to support the wild speculations of the author - all I can see are assertions that this or that is going to happen. Do you have a more substantial source supporting these claims?

You could Google or Wikipedia to get familiar with this issue for a start:

Petroeuro statt Petrodollar - China stellt um - n-tv.de

Google-News DE:
http://www.google.de/search?hl=de&q=...le-Suche&meta=

Google-News ENG:
http://news.google.com/news?source=i...n+china+dollar

Wiki-Entries:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroeuro

• Petrocurrency
• Petrodollar
• Petrobourse
• Bush Doctrine
• Petrodollar warfare
• Monetary Hegemony

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Grammatron

Ok Oliver, let's say China decided, tomorrow, to sell off all their dollars for Euros.

Who will buy the dollars?

They don't have to "sell" their Dollars. They could simply "buy" Gold or whatever with their money. This way they would get rid of their Dollar-Stock. Just like you buying a Ferrari with all your savings to get rid of your dollars.

Or they invest it in the stock market or something.

[Grammatron]

Originally Posted by Oliver

They don't have to "sale" their Dollars. They could simply "buy" Gold or whatever with their money. This way the would get rid of their money. Just like you buying a Ferrari with all your savings to get rid of your dollar.

Or they invest it in the stock market or something.

....ok

Where do you think those dollars go after they buy Gold?
And who would want to sell China gold for the useless(according to your article) dollars?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Grammatron

....ok

Where do you think those dollars go after they buy Gold?
And who would want to sell China gold for the useless(according to your article) dollars?

I guess you didn't get the point. They could invest into european stocks and buy large amounts of "real estate-Shares", "Medic-Shares" and "Software-Shares" - for example. I don't know what exactly the could do. We're speculating here since no one can predict when the Dollar will collapse and for what reasons. But it surely would be the end of the America you and me know.

[danielk]

Originally Posted by Oliver

You could Google or Wikipedia to get familiar with this issue for a start:

Thanks for the link spamming. If you think I haven't heard of this issue before you are mistaken. Anyway I'm going to walk through these articles one by one, as I find the time. Let's start at the top:

Originally Posted by Oliver

Petroeuro statt Petrodollar - China stellt um - n-tv.de

The article says that Iran is threatening to stop trading in Dollars because of current US policies. If this is true, wouldn't it be economically advantageous for the US to reduce the pressure on Iran? How do you conclude that there is an economic incentive for the US to maintain its current hardline stance in the international arena?

[danielk]

Originally Posted by Oliver

I guess you didn't get the point. They could invest into european stocks and buy large amounts of "real estate-Shares", "Medic-Shares" and "Software-Shares" - for example. I don't know what exactly the could do. We're speculating here since no one can predict when the Dollar will collapse and for what reasons. But it surely would be the end of the America you and me know.

No, I think you didn't get the point. Money is a bit like energy: it isn't simply destroyed and has to go somewhere. If China buys stocks or real estate or whatever in Europe and pays in Dollars, then that also means that Europe buys Dollars and pays in stocks or real estate or whatever.